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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #565,281
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:36am Dec 13, 2020 8:36am
Quoting FloatingCha
{quote} can i ask for knowleadge .... if "no deal" what will happen with EU ? EURO gonna be strong or it not affect anything to this currency ...
No deal is not great for Europe, but so far, E/U did not really move on any Brexit-related news.
  • #565,282
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:40am Dec 13, 2020 8:40am
Quoting FloatingCha
{quote} can i ask for knowleadge .... if "no deal" what will happen with EU ? EURO gonna be strong or it not affect anything to this currency ...
EU is fucked no matter what, but no deal will make the downfall faster, no matter how tough Barnier&co are acting...they know EU will collapse soon, anyway. It makes no sense to have the same currency for such different economies, its good for tourists, but thats all really. Thats why they try to run EU as one country, but we are not the US...you can't copy their system here.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,283
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:43am Dec 13, 2020 8:43am
Quoting letsride
How much stock should be put in the IG Weekend Market figure? I’m not particularly concerned because to my mind, nothing has changed no deal is still 80% possible, but I’m just curious as I’ve never really bothered looking over the weekend. LR

I dont pay much attention to it but i guess we open at that price... i agree with what you say re deal/no deal... i will for be looking to fade on the open or maybe take a small short position once spreads die down and leave another clip for tomorrow incase we go higher
  • #565,284
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:45am Dec 13, 2020 8:45am
Quoting FloatingCha
{quote} can i ask for knowleadge .... if "no deal" what will happen with EU ? EURO gonna be strong or it not affect anything to this currency ...

depends really one would think eurusd would drop however

if Gbpusd drops and eurgbp goes higher eurusd will probably not do too much

it would depend on Eurgbp I would think

or I’m completely wrong hahahah
  • #565,285
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:49am Dec 13, 2020 8:49am
Quoting allinazi
{quote} depends really one would think eurusd would drop however if Gbpusd drops and eurgbp goes higher eurusd will probably not do too much it would depend on Eurgbp I would think or I’m completely wrong hahahah
Eurgbp is not a pair thats moving eur or gbp...but eur and gbp are moving eurgbp.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,286
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:50am Dec 13, 2020 8:50am
GbpUsd 1H Flow Volume: big DEMAND, small SUPPLY....
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  • #565,287
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:51am Dec 13, 2020 8:51am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Eurgbp is not a pair thats moving eur or gbp...but eur and gbp are moving eurgbp.
yes correct but you can get flows in eurgbp directly usually around the end of month ..

because if no deal I reckon eurgbp would go to parity minimum but anyways who knows

we are still on let’s kick the problem down the road for another few weeks
  • #565,288
  • Dec 13, 2020 8:58am Dec 13, 2020 8:58am
Good Gap is forming...
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  • #565,289
  • Dec 13, 2020 9:18am Dec 13, 2020 9:18am
Big weekend gaps usually are not transformed into something significant as markets open. So 20-30 pips gap possible, more would come as a surprise.
  • #565,290
  • Dec 13, 2020 9:23am Dec 13, 2020 9:23am
Quoting Moty
gu {image} gy{image}
H4 is bearish, not is time to buy yet. For while let's wait for to sell.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #565,291
  • Dec 13, 2020 9:34am Dec 13, 2020 9:34am
Quoting achv
Good Gap is forming... {image}
Since when weekend trading became a direction guidance?
Weekend trading has nothing to do with the actual market’s intentions.
This doesn’t mean though the Pound is not gonna go up. 5 and 1/2 hour to opening.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #565,292
  • Dec 13, 2020 9:58am Dec 13, 2020 9:58am
Quoting OnlineAddict
https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohn...26986070331392 No deal still the most likely outcome, so false hopes for bulls.
A deal won’t happen mate.

honestly, 98% sure on this, All Tory back benchers want a no deal, Boris would be considered a sell out.

Not one of them would do to the U.K. what he will but they will be happy to push’s him into the firing lines.

Seriously with all the ups and downs a deal is unlikely.

they will be forced to get one through after leaving or rejoin.
Que Sera
  • #565,293
  • Dec 13, 2020 10:17am Dec 13, 2020 10:17am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Are you U.K. based mate ? no chance Tories will extend it again... most back benchers want a no deal.
Swiss based American.
They've extended this for the past 4 years.....there's no reason why they won't extend it for another 4 unless it's their necks on the line.
Lost....
  • #565,294
  • Edited 2:49pm Dec 13, 2020 10:28am | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} A deal won’t happen mate. honestly, 98% sure on this, All Tory back benchers want a no deal, Boris would be considered a sell out. Not one of them would do to the U.K. what he will but they will be happy to push’s him into the firing lines. Seriously with all the ups and downs a deal is unlikely. they will be forced to get one through after leaving or rejoin.
Could be it's just the normal plan to make it easier to get through all the Parliaments.
Leave it very last minuet with no time to be rejected.
Maybe it's all drama everyone wants it to end already.

Quoting Catempire
{quote}You keep referencing the 7.7% figure like this is the only thing that matters... a no deal Brexit could cause Unemployment to rise 8% ... what do you think this does to the economy ?
Yes everything I said regarding the economy is very simplistic ,at least I considered it beyond the headlines.

The point about 7.7% of GDP is Goods to the EU- is only to gauge what the UK’s biggest trading partner comment refers.
So we can compare properly what it means without going down the common comparing apples and pears route by remainers.
Say Netherlands 55-60% of GDP is eu exports.
UK>NE is 6.9% then NE>UK is 8.8% = export in goods is at least 6x more important market to the Netherlands you cannot add in the full weight of all Europe V UK on this metric.Since the EU is not a country ,it's a hybrid bureaucracy linking countries.
Or
Germany 22% of GDP is exports to EU or 3x Uk .
Clearly the UK isn’t an exporter of goods in comparison to its EU counterparts.
Actually UK comes out bottom on a % of GDP metric against almost every EU country.

With regard to fish and our waters there is the main sovereign element, but I think there is another reasonable strategic course which goes beyond its sterling worth.
Like Farming, it’s a fraction of GDP, but in all conditions you need to be able to feed yourself.
This is my understanding in farming subsidisation right across the EU.
Not to mention directing stimulus right where you need it on the coast.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #565,295
  • Dec 13, 2020 10:33am Dec 13, 2020 10:33am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Swiss based American. They've extended this for the past 4 years.....there's no reason why they won't extend it for another 4 unless it's their necks on the line.
lived in zermatt a few moons ago damn expensive but equally gorgeous place.

Theoretically yes and I can see why it might seem that way but not in practice, the political landscape doesn’t warrant it in the slightest, this “kicking a can down the road” is purely for show, they can claim they have tried “till last minute”.

if they haven’t got a deal by the 31st we will leave without.

the only way we will get a deal is if the EU backs down on certain things.

EU can’t back down because they risk destroying the internal trust.

Boris will only bend so much to the pressure of the opposition and the right thing, for his selfishness he needs his parties trust more than anything else and most of them want a no deal, including his advisors.
Que Sera
  • #565,296
  • Dec 13, 2020 10:44am Dec 13, 2020 10:44am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Could be it's just the normal plan to make it easier to get through all the Parliaments. Leave it very last minuet with no time to be rejected. Maybe it's all drama everyone wants it to end already. {quote} Yes everything I said regarding the economy is very simplistic ,at least I considered it beyond the headlines. The point about 7.7% of GDP is Goods to the EU- is only to gauge what the UK’s biggest trading partner comment refers. So we can compare properly what it means without going down the common comparing apples and pears route by...
good post bones.

Perhaps there is an element of everyone wants it to end because everyone is starting to realise it’s actually a load of crap and so unnecessary. appreciate people want more control etc but accept from in an idealistic world it just doesn’t work like that.

no matter what happens from here unless the U.K. stays in, the U.K. will be worse off. That’s simple to see.

we should have gone for more say within the eu or alike not a referendum on leaving... every country in the world bar America would love to be in the U.K.’s shoes, that says it all.

the damn fish even if they fished in our waters we would never have any problems feeding ourselves, hence why 60% of it gets sold in the EU. U.K. has a good quota and the quota and regulation is important for sustainability.

Fishermen don’t need another boat. That is the least of our problems.

it’s just stupid, it’s become symbolic & blown way out of proportion.

people can only eat so much & guaranteed the EU will be buying less fish deal or no deal.

what good is going to come out of this ?

none, regardless of a deal.

im defo getting to the stage of being over brexit now and I’m sure everyone else is, let’s just hang our heads and carry on as we were, no hard feelings EU
Que Sera
  • #565,297
  • Dec 13, 2020 10:49am Dec 13, 2020 10:49am
Quoting letsride
{quote} How so? Curious
long story.... Bloomberg data is valid
  • #565,298
  • Dec 13, 2020 10:50am Dec 13, 2020 10:50am
Quoting emannnn
{quote} long story.... Bloomberg data is valid
What price Bloomberg give ??
Que Sera
  • #565,299
  • Dec 13, 2020 11:10am Dec 13, 2020 11:10am
Quoting emannnn
{quote} long story.... Bloomberg data is valid
pray tell, gentleman
  • #565,300
  • Dec 13, 2020 11:11am Dec 13, 2020 11:11am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} lived in zermatt a few moons ago damn expensive but equally gorgeous place. Theoretically yes and I can see why it might seem that way but not in practice, the political landscape doesn’t warrant it in the slightest, this “kicking a can down the road” is purely for show, they can claim they have tried “till last minute”. if they haven’t got a deal by the 31st we will leave without. the only way we will get a deal is if the EU backs down on certain things. EU can’t back down because they risk destroying the internal trust. Boris will only...
Yeah, it is quite pricey here especially if you don't earn like the Swiss bankers.

I doubt the EU will back down on certain things. They already backed down on the budget with Poland and Hungary which angered one of their owners (GeorgeSoros). This will keep on going until the US presidency is officially finalized on Jan 20. We'll see.
Lost....
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