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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #565,201
  • Dec 12, 2020 11:24am Dec 12, 2020 11:24am
Another fact from history.

During 2008 crisis GBP went down by 6654 pips AND HAS NEVER GONE UP TO THE 2.01560 LEVEL SINCE:

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It is not an imaginary situation for this to happen again as majority of UK's economy is service based. Some companies already declared moving out from the UK after brexit.
WT
  • #565,202
  • Dec 12, 2020 11:47am Dec 12, 2020 11:47am
Quoting Bartosz77
{image} Scenario from the brexit vote shows trend of how GBP will be impacted if there is no-deal. Range of 1790 pips was followed by another 974 pip range when Article 50 was triggered (7/10/2016): {image}
I don't think even a 500 pip gap down is realistic upon no-deal confirmation...but I would love to see it! It would basically lift dollar against all currencies in a major way. Would be a fun market open and early Christmas.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,203
  • Dec 12, 2020 11:51am Dec 12, 2020 11:51am
Quoting Bartosz77
Some companies already declared moving out from the UK after brexit.
I think that after the dust settles, companies will leave EU and move to UK, due to better business conditions.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,204
  • Edited 12:51pm Dec 12, 2020 12:02pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting L.m
{quote} We'll see, it depends on Brexit. At the moment a deal seems almost impossible, but they might decide to freeze the actual transition period for some months in order to have more time and finally get to an agreement. TA is bullish for high TF imo and it's not unusual to see fundies allign with it.
I think the Tories are far to stubborn and selfish to do the right thing (Stay in the E.U)... sometimes in life it brings the time to admit we were wrong, something leavers won't do, even when the economy is on its knees... but I do agree there could be a curve ball between now and then..

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Cable back at 350 / 400 pre leaving... if UK leaves, all bets are off... big money understands the score.

It's a very complex economic situation.

I will be hedging my positions on the Monthly 100 & 200 M/A's until D day. I've noted in my very limited charting that the big moves require a bigger chart (same reason we didn't hit 300 on Friday - that would have been a full retrace), the drop on the indices on the DOW in Feb initially bounced off the 200 day MA.

Bigger fall, Bigger situation, Bigger chart.

Zoom out!!!
Que Sera
  • #565,205
  • Edited 12:25pm Dec 12, 2020 12:09pm | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I think that after the dust settles, companies will leave EU and move to UK, due to better business conditions.
Hope you are right mate but really 26 verses 1 they can also change their rules... this isn't a one way negotiation / situation & is very competitive.

Who would you rather trade / do business with... the EU with 27 countries and re constructed rules or the UK (& Boris) who "Used too" rule the roost based on slave trade and sheer British arrogance ?

Hard call.

British arrogance that got us in this mess.
Que Sera
  • #565,206
  • Dec 12, 2020 12:14pm Dec 12, 2020 12:14pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Hope you are right mate but really 26 verses 1 they can also change their rules... this isn't a one way negotiation / situation & is very competitive.
EU will never change in this aspect...it can't...its already bankrupt, just hiding it. They will only increase taxes with time, to pay for all their nonsense...I expect some new green eco taxes soon.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,207
  • Dec 12, 2020 12:33pm Dec 12, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} EU will never change in this aspect...it can't...its already bankrupt, just hiding it. They will only increase taxes with time, to pay for all their nonsense...I expect some new green eco taxes soon.
For sure , but its not as bad as UK on a no deal dude, perhaps not economically but from the perspective of these guys couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery (the EU have been very nobel throughout this process). I really do hope that the UK bounces back as it could but with this bunch in charge, honestly, its akin to a banana republic with the biggest lack of foresight you could imagine.

You need progressives if you want to progress in an evolving situation ... either that or tyranny.

Even with the best business plan imaginable, if the manager, CEO or Chairman hasn't got the vision, it won't happen!
Que Sera
  • #565,208
  • Dec 12, 2020 2:37pm Dec 12, 2020 2:37pm
People here still talk about positives of Brexit... wake up already. The biggest crisis (economical, social, political) since WWII is coming, brace for impact.
  • #565,209
  • Dec 12, 2020 2:38pm Dec 12, 2020 2:38pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Hope you are right mate but really 26 verses 1 they can also change their rules... this isn't a one way negotiation / situation & is very competitive. Who would you rather trade / do business with... the EU with 27 countries and re constructed rules or the UK (& Boris) who "Used too" rule the roost based on slave trade and sheer British arrogance ? Hard call. British arrogance that got us in this mess.
Will Boris over-see an orderly exit from Brexit ? Hmmm - does Europe really care a fig.

Will Boris find new trading pals in the USA and elsewhere ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #565,210
  • Dec 12, 2020 3:29pm Dec 12, 2020 3:29pm
"As negotiations on a UK-EU trade deal are continue overnight, a British government source has said that "as things stand the offer on the table from the EU remains unacceptable".
Both sides now concede that a no-deal outcome is more likely than not when the talks end on Sunday, and Royal Navy gunboats have been readied to patrol UK waters to prevent illegal fishing in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 1 January."
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,211
  • Dec 12, 2020 10:31pm Dec 12, 2020 10:31pm
Who believes there will be a deal today? It ain’t over til the fat lady sings. IMO everything is still hanging on a balance and the chances are still 50/50 for either way. You can tell by the market's behavior. The Friday’s fall was just part of the range movement and by no means suggests that there will be a no deal nor the short lived up trends suggest the opposite.
For all I know the final movement will be nasty.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #565,212
  • Dec 13, 2020 12:07am Dec 13, 2020 12:07am
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yes yes yes
  • #565,213
  • Dec 13, 2020 2:21am Dec 13, 2020 2:21am
Quoting NotAtrader
Who believes there will be a deal today? It ain’t over til the fat lady sings. IMO everything is still hanging on a balance and the chances are still 50/50 for either way. You can tell by the market's behavior. The Friday’s fall was just part of the range movement and by no means suggests that there will be a no deal nor the short lived up trends suggest the opposite. For all I know the final movement will be nasty.
Maybe market views them as 50/50, but reality is, chances for a deal are almost non-existant at this stage. However, politicians may declare some progress and continue talking (aka kick the can), which would be positive for pound short-term.
  • #565,214
  • Dec 13, 2020 3:20am Dec 13, 2020 3:20am
Quoting NotAtrader
Who believes there will be a deal today? It ain’t over til the fat lady sings. IMO everything is still hanging on a balance and the chances are still 50/50 for either way. You can tell by the market's behavior. The Friday’s fall was just part of the range movement and by no means suggests that there will be a no deal nor the short lived up trends suggest the opposite. For all I know the final movement will be nasty.
They are talking of sending in gunboats & Merkel wanting U.K. to crawl along broken glass.

uk are acting like an embarrassment.

I think it’s possible a new word should be put into the English language to sum up the level of short sighted stupidness of the brexiteers.

what we have already won’t quite cut it. The likliooh of any deal, not even a good one, is extremely slim to none.

this gotvernment are a disgrace.
Que Sera
  • #565,215
  • Dec 13, 2020 3:58am Dec 13, 2020 3:58am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} They are talking of sending in gunboats & Merkel wanting U.K. to crawl along broken glass. uk are acting like an embarrassment. I think it’s possible a new word should be put into the English language to sum up the level of short sighted stupidness of the brexiteers. what we have already won’t quite cut it. The likliooh of any deal, not even a good one, is extremely slim to none. this gotvernment are a disgrace.
Fishing is the only leverage UK has. (Which of course is funny remembering Brexiteers saying "we have got all the cards"). They are trying to make as much of it as possible, to get concessions on the level playing field. But I just can't see the access to Single Market being sold out this cheap.
  • #565,216
  • Dec 13, 2020 4:06am Dec 13, 2020 4:06am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Fishing is the only leverage UK has. (Which of course is funny remembering Brexiteers saying "we have got all the cards"). They are trying to make as much of it as possible, to get concessions on the level playing field. But I just can't see the access to Single Market being sold out this cheap.
Yes that’s my take too, if they could get more fishing rights then the U.K. then they will at least be able to claim a level of success.

it is somewhat pathetic.

the bloody thing is embarrassing, wouldn’t want these guys anywhere near my business, yet here they are running the f**king country.

boris is another trump, egotistical & an absolute bellend.

not sure what the fast 80 point drop a minute ago in weekend trading was all about.

I see rabb is talking about extending talks on the tv.
Que Sera
  • #565,217
  • Dec 13, 2020 4:07am Dec 13, 2020 4:07am
30min.. expectations
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99.9% persistence
  • #565,218
  • Dec 13, 2020 4:17am Dec 13, 2020 4:17am
I still think a deal will be hashed out, all of the no deal sabre rattling/gunboat diplomacy is a bargaining power/game theory tactic, the other side has to seriously believe that the UK is willing to walk away from talks.. that gives the UK the strongest position they can achieve currently to draw concessions. Voters would never forgive the government for food shortages, inflation, unemployment etc.. the Tories know this

Interesting to see price settle right on that big monthly trend line on Friday, camped out waiting for a decision. I still think big swings up and down are most likely for next week
  • #565,219
  • Dec 13, 2020 4:24am Dec 13, 2020 4:24am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} They are talking of sending in gunboats & Merkel wanting U.K. to crawl along broken glass. uk are acting like an embarrassment. I think it’s possible a new word should be put into the English language to sum up the level of short sighted stupidness of the brexiteers. what we have already won’t quite cut it. The likliooh of any deal, not even a good one, is extremely slim to none. this gotvernment are a disgrace.
they missed the whole idea of being 20 20 vision aries
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #565,220
  • Dec 13, 2020 4:24am Dec 13, 2020 4:24am
Quoting mysterio
I still think a deal will be hashed out, all of the no deal sabre rattling/gunboat diplomacy is a bargaining power/game theory tactic, the other side has to seriously believe that the UK is willing to walk away from talks.. that gives the UK the strongest position they can achieve currently to draw concessions. Voters would never forgive the government for food shortages, inflation, unemployment etc.. the Tories know this Interesting to see price settle right on that big monthly trend line on Friday, camped out waiting for a decision. I still think...
the EU can’t give the U.K. what it demands as it will piss off every other member. clearly they won’t do that.

uk either accepts far less or walks away.
Que Sera
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