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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #565,181
  • Dec 12, 2020 3:47am Dec 12, 2020 3:47am
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} What was the move on the brexit vote day (Friday), remind me please?
24/6/16

1.488 to 1.322 in a day

bottomed out months later @ 1.18
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  • #565,182
  • Dec 12, 2020 3:49am Dec 12, 2020 3:49am
Bears are certainly going to make some big money.

Even my large collection of very outside puts @ 1.19, 1.14 & 1.09 are almost in profit.

1.01
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  • #565,183
  • Dec 12, 2020 3:51am Dec 12, 2020 3:51am
chart saying boris having the last laugh over all the shawtys next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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twitter: @gettoefl
  • #565,184
  • Dec 12, 2020 3:51am Dec 12, 2020 3:51am
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} What was the move on the brexit vote day (Friday), remind me please?
1400 pips daily range.
Result was a suprise hence the fall

Now you are calling for a 17k pips down (aka the end of the GBPUSD pairs) for an outcome more or less known

What was the point of your question if i may ask ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #565,185
  • Dec 12, 2020 3:54am Dec 12, 2020 3:54am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Kuroro correct me if I’m wrong (I’ve never read a chart like this) does it not indicate a potential bounce further down?
It's too early to say anything reading COT data, but they are more bullish than bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #565,186
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:01am Dec 12, 2020 4:01am
Quoting gettoefl
chart saying boris having the last laugh over all the shawtys next week {image}
Yea for sure, that’s why Jacob Rees Mogg is short on the pound and has been recommending no one invests in the U.K. for the last 3 years.

also. Not sure you’ve drawn enough lines on your chart.... couple more might give you a better read.

38pips down on close atm
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  • #565,187
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:13am Dec 12, 2020 4:13am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Yea for sure, that’s why Jacob Rees Mogg is short on the pound and has been recommending no one invests in the U.K. for the last 3 years. also. Not sure you’ve drawn enough lines on your chart.... couple more might give you a better read. 38pips down on close atm
excellent he is the person i would most fade on the planet ... the crash happened last monday, you will not get lightning striking twice ... it will go down yes but not til the forex factory retail jump back on the bull train, see chart for the path, i'll add a few extra lines for your eye sight's benefit next time
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #565,188
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:17am Dec 12, 2020 4:17am
Quoting L.m
{quote} It's too early to say anything reading COT data, but they are more bullish than bearish. {image}
Dealers are CLEARLY more bearish than bullish

But we all see different things i guess

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #565,189
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:30am Dec 12, 2020 4:30am
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} excellent he is the person i would most fade on the planet ... the crash happened last monday, you will not get lightning striking twice ... it will go down yes but not til the forex factory retail jump back on the bull train, see chart for the path, i'll add a few extra lines for your eye sight's benefit next time
dude have you not been reading this forum. 90% have been bullish, even from 500+, infact many were even bullish on close yesterday, with talks ending Sunday? As I said then if you were a dealer and didn’t want to hold the £, how would you make the chart look?

completly over looking the very fundamentals driving the price seems crazy for professional traders.

my comments were in jest. Pretty sure your lines don’t know talks might end Sunday & changing the angle of dangle would give a completely different read.

how was the drop last Monday when this Monday is the day after talks might end & until midweek no one in the market knew that?

makes 0 sense. The market cannot predict what it doesn’t know.
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  • #565,190
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:40am Dec 12, 2020 4:40am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} dude have you not been reading this forum. 90% have been bullish, even from 500+, infact many were even bullish on close yesterday, with talks ending Sunday? As I said then if you were a dealer and didn’t want to hold the £, how would you make the chart look? completly over looking the very fundamentals driving the price seems crazy for professional traders. my comments were in jest. Pretty sure your lines don’t know talks might end Sunday & changing the angle of dangle would give a completely different read. how was the drop last Monday...



correct forget COTs and whatever else if there’s a no deal no technicals / reports / etc will matter
  • #565,191
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:47am Dec 12, 2020 4:47am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Dealers are CLEARLY more bearish than bullish But we all see different things i guess {image}
What you CLEARLY see, I don't. Dealers are net short by a small amount of contracts and are increasing their net short bias, so I confirm it's too early to say anything but should I make a forecast based on these data I'd expect a few hundred pips increase before a bigger correction.
In any case Brexit will drive the market.
  • #565,192
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:53am Dec 12, 2020 4:53am
Quoting L.m
I'd expect a few hundred pips increase before a bigger correction.
We already had those few hundred pips...market won't come back up for shorts until forever, its not a charity.

If everyone was already short and waiting for a bigger correction, it would never come. It needs bulls who will buy the dips...to drop more and more.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,193
  • Dec 12, 2020 5:11am Dec 12, 2020 5:11am
Quoting L.m
{quote} What you CLEARLY see, I don't. Dealers are net short by a small amount of contracts and are increasing their net short bias, so I confirm it's too early to say anything but should I make a forecast based on these data I'd expect a few hundred pips increase before a bigger correction. In any case Brexit will drive the market.
I expect a few hundred pips increase as well ... but not from here... most likely from way lower down, post the break out of Fridays lows to come back and retest them or alike.

Bottom line, even as of Monday UK could still end up doing a deal, market will always take that into consideration... January 1st, completely different kettle of fish.
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  • #565,194
  • Edited 6:32am Dec 12, 2020 5:17am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} That’s why I said long term mate. A market for all the goods you can’t sell to EU won’t just appear out of nowhere. In fact you won’t be selling them until the U.K. accepts the shit deal or rejoins. Covid didn’t take markets away it just stopped them for a short period of time.
Stay away from the tabloids and making pie in the sky statements .
COVID is the biggest and baddest fundamental financial problem looming, without doubt= a world recession making subject, to be seen.

How low do you think cable can go before the UK becomes a supercharged great investment ,EU and US have problems of their own.
Especially if the Government make the correct assumption they need to make the UK even more attractive through tax. A lot depends on what the gov do next.

Fact Example - on actual todays data
London has never been stronger since Brexit day.It can’t be relocated by the EU ? on the many reasons it exists.
Tariffs will hurt the EU top 5 UK partners as much as or more than the UK.Tariffs are bad ,but for the exporter to implement is utter economic madness for them.
Only 7.3% of UK GDP relates to UK goods exported to the EU Single Market.This is the market you're talking about when crying about our biggest partner.


Remember you're the one who feels he worked out what this all means, with everyone else completely fooled on the other side.
The other day you're adding the lower EU imports against some kind of UK GDP loss .The majority of the value of nearly all imports is with with the exporter.
Lower EU goods imports will be good for the UK considering the trade balance.

“ ... To be clear, the purchase of domestic goods and services increases GDP because it increases domestic production, but the purchase of imported goods and services has no direct impact on GDP”

other fun FACTS already pointed against pie in the sky doom and gloom posters

USA is UK’s largest single trading partner in the world.
Uk is the second biggest purchaser of EU goods in the world.

The two EU countries most affected by no deal
Germany and Netherlands account for well over two thirds of all EU exports to the UK.

The rest of EU countries that matter to the UK
Germany,Netherlands,France.Spain,Belguim account for three quarters of all imports to UK

The two countries most affected by no deal in loss of %GDP are Netherlands + Ireland.


25 years BEFORE Single Market started: 2.4% average annual UK growth
25 years AFTER Single Market started: 2.2% average annual UK growth

Uk fishing declined 50% since 1990
Since 1990 UK went from balanced trade to100 billion trade deficit in goods with EU
The the rest of world UK trade is balanced to UK surplus.

92% of UK businesses, don’t sell to the EU
EU's biggest trading partners have no trade agreement

Applying tariffs will produce a £7+ billion income to UK government on todays statistic.Add that to the net 8-10 billion we send one way to EU.


Average tariff UK side would be 4.5% and EU side would be 5.8%
The biggest impact of tariffs both sides is on Vehicles then Meat which the UK could subsidise from the tariff dividend at no cost.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #565,195
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:30am Dec 12, 2020 6:30am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Stay away from the tabloids and making pie in the sky statements . COVID is the biggest and baddest fundamental financial problem looming, without doubt= a world recession making subject, to be seen. How low do you think cable can go before the UK becomes a supercharged great investment ,EU and US have problems of their own. Especially if the Government make the correct assumption they need to make the UK even more attractive through tax. A lot depends on what the gov do next. Fact Example - on actual todays data London has never been stronger...
Bones with respect, I've been studying the economy for 12 years, I make my own judgements based on what I understand, absolutely F/A to do with tabloids.

"How low do you think cable can go before the UK becomes a supercharged great investment ,EU and US have problems of their own."

The market is valued on many things, if the UK is in an unstable / unknown situation then this will be seen in the price of cable, even if it is just a short term correction, over reaction or whatever... of course it will come back up again, not one person has suggested any different. that is obvious.

You were 2 weeks ago saying "I see no sell off on the pound on Brexit" It's there to see, yet you knock economists predictions based entirely on the 7% figure and the £7b gain to the government. It won't be £7b as the EU will sell elsewhere, as we are seeing with Australia trying to fill the gap, a competitive market and one that won't be filled as simply again your overly simplistic view thinks.

You keep referencing the 7.7% figure like this is the only thing that matters... a no deal Brexit could cause Unemployment to rise 8% ... what do you think this does to the economy ?

What do you think the rate of stimulus will be on a no deal Brexit ?

What does this do to the price of Cable ?

What happens if a % of these goods cannot find a market ?

What knock on effect will that have to the economy ?

The fact that only 7% of goods are exported to the EU will have a disproportionate effect on the industries that don't export to the EU.

"Applying tariffs will produce a £7+ billion income to UK government on todays statistic"

Who picks up the bill on the Export costs Bones ?

You were also 2 weeks ago saying that Economists don't know what they are on about... let me say, they know and understand a great deal more than you do with your overly simplistic outlook based on one dimensional figures... Like that will be the only thing effected/

What happens if there is less money floating around the economy Bones? Irrelevant of a deal or the % of export?

What happens when UK finance and other industries move business abroad?

You say its doom mongering... its not at all its being able to see the possibilities of an evolving situation one that will in no way shape or from be as you suggest.. as is clearly already the case, the EU won't be buying more UK fish if the UK leave on a no deal Bones, theres a start.

You were and still are wrong & you will see!

"But sir its only 7%" OK.
Que Sera
  • #565,196
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:37am Dec 12, 2020 6:37am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I expect a few hundred pips increase as well ... but not from here... most likely from way lower down, post the break out of Fridays lows to come back and retest them or alike. Bottom line, even as of Monday UK could still end up doing a deal, market will always take that into consideration... January 1st, completely different kettle of fish.
We'll see, it depends on Brexit. At the moment a deal seems almost impossible, but they might decide to freeze the actual transition period for some months in order to have more time and finally get to an agreement.

TA is bullish for high TF imo and it's not unusual to see fundies allign with it.
  • #565,197
  • Edited 7:11am Dec 12, 2020 6:44am | Edited 7:11am
Quoting Bones
Especially if the Government make the correct assumption they need to make the UK even more attractive through tax. A lot depends on what the gov do next.
If UK became the "tax haven" of Europe, it would be the final nail in the coffin of bankrupt socialistic EU. I hope they do...because taxes and bureaucracy in most of EU are killing entrepreneurs, as if they didn't even want them in the first place. Sometimes I feel Brussels only want big companies and regular employees, no middle class.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,198
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:27am Dec 12, 2020 7:27am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} 1400 pips daily range. Result was a suprise hence the fall Now you are calling for a 17k pips down (aka the end of the GBPUSD pairs) for an outcome more or less known What was the point of your question if i may ask ?
LOL, sorry - my mistake I put one zero too many.
I looked at the graph and it showed me 17k points.

It will drop on Monday by a similar amount due to known consequences of no deal scenario.

After that market will like to move GBP upwards just to make another drop of similar amount on 01/01/2021.
WT
  • #565,199
  • Dec 12, 2020 8:43am Dec 12, 2020 8:43am
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} LOL, sorry - my mistake I put one zero too many. I looked at the graph and it showed me 17k points. It will drop on Monday by a similar amount due to known consequences of no deal scenario. After that market will like to move GBP upwards just to make another drop of similar amount on 01/01/2021.
It won't be like this I think. The decline will be gradual, maybe slow, maybe chaotic, but relentless.
  • #565,200
  • Dec 12, 2020 8:58am Dec 12, 2020 8:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Scenario from the brexit vote shows trend of how GBP will be impacted if there is no-deal.

Range of 1790 pips was followed by another 974 pip range when Article 50 was triggered (7/10/2016):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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WT
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