Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 16 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 26 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 63 replies

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 15 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 6 replies

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting Ehsank78
if a deal is announced on Sunday or some positive news. does it mean GU will fly on Monday opening?
Ehsank you have to weigh up how much of the possible ‘good’ news is priced in.

if the market was expecting a Deal to be made then the markets been pricing it in.

which really means if a deal was suddenly pulled out of a hat it would rise a little, if talks continue equally might open up, if talks were to end completely and you get the media talking about gun boats etc then it could open down considerably.

BREXIT is the single biggest long term hit to the British economy in 50 years

Historic size drops to the downside are very possible.
Que Sera
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Ehsank you have to weigh up how much of the possible ‘good’ news is priced in. if the market was expecting a Deal to be made then the markets been pricing it in. which really means if a deal was suddenly pulled out of a hat it would rise a little, if talks continue equally might open up, if talks were to end completely and you get the media talking about gun boats etc then it could open down considerably. BREXIT is the single biggest long term hit to the British economy in 50 years Historic size drops to the downside are very possible.
what about covid?
Human + Incentive = Bias
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} 17k pips drop on monday ? right.... The market knows both no deal and deal are possible. Lately GBPUSD is pricing both outcome, there won't be any big suprises 17k pips drop in a single day would almost mean end of the world, or UK removed from the worldmap 17k pips = GBPUSD negative... Do no scare people with such comments
What was the move on the brexit vote day (Friday), remind me please?
Account open on 2021-03-01
Quoting Bones
{quote} what about covid?
That’s why I said long term mate.

A market for all the goods you can’t sell to EU won’t just appear out of nowhere. In fact you won’t be selling them until the U.K. accepts the shit deal or rejoins.

Covid didn’t take markets away it just stopped them for a short period of time.
Que Sera
Largest bear run was over 7000 pips over 7 months from 1.98 to 1.3498
Que Sera
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} What was the move on the brexit vote day (Friday), remind me please?
24/6/16

1.488 to 1.322 in a day

bottomed out months later @ 1.18
Que Sera
Bears are certainly going to make some big money.

Even my large collection of very outside puts @ 1.19, 1.14 & 1.09 are almost in profit.

1.01
Que Sera
chart saying boris having the last laugh over all the shawtys next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd111220-1h.png Size: 148 KB
twitter: @gettoefl
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} What was the move on the brexit vote day (Friday), remind me please?
1400 pips daily range.
Result was a suprise hence the fall

Now you are calling for a 17k pips down (aka the end of the GBPUSD pairs) for an outcome more or less known

What was the point of your question if i may ask ?
COT : the precious data ignored & FX investing: mid/long term ideas
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Kuroro correct me if I’m wrong (I’ve never read a chart like this) does it not indicate a potential bounce further down?
It's too early to say anything reading COT data, but they are more bullish than bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT_201212.png Size: 175 KB
Quoting gettoefl
chart saying boris having the last laugh over all the shawtys next week {image}
Yea for sure, that’s why Jacob Rees Mogg is short on the pound and has been recommending no one invests in the U.K. for the last 3 years.

also. Not sure you’ve drawn enough lines on your chart.... couple more might give you a better read.

38pips down on close atm
Que Sera
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Yea for sure, that’s why Jacob Rees Mogg is short on the pound and has been recommending no one invests in the U.K. for the last 3 years. also. Not sure you’ve drawn enough lines on your chart.... couple more might give you a better read. 38pips down on close atm
excellent he is the person i would most fade on the planet ... the crash happened last monday, you will not get lightning striking twice ... it will go down yes but not til the forex factory retail jump back on the bull train, see chart for the path, i'll add a few extra lines for your eye sight's benefit next time
twitter: @gettoefl
Quoting L.m
{quote} It's too early to say anything reading COT data, but they are more bullish than bearish. {image}
Dealers are CLEARLY more bearish than bullish

But we all see different things i guess

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture2.PNG Size: 248 KB
COT : the precious data ignored & FX investing: mid/long term ideas
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} excellent he is the person i would most fade on the planet ... the crash happened last monday, you will not get lightning striking twice ... it will go down yes but not til the forex factory retail jump back on the bull train, see chart for the path, i'll add a few extra lines for your eye sight's benefit next time
dude have you not been reading this forum. 90% have been bullish, even from 500+, infact many were even bullish on close yesterday, with talks ending Sunday? As I said then if you were a dealer and didn’t want to hold the £, how would you make the chart look?

completly over looking the very fundamentals driving the price seems crazy for professional traders.

my comments were in jest. Pretty sure your lines don’t know talks might end Sunday & changing the angle of dangle would give a completely different read.

how was the drop last Monday when this Monday is the day after talks might end & until midweek no one in the market knew that?

makes 0 sense. The market cannot predict what it doesn’t know.
Que Sera
Quoting Catempire
{quote} dude have you not been reading this forum. 90% have been bullish, even from 500+, infact many were even bullish on close yesterday, with talks ending Sunday? As I said then if you were a dealer and didn’t want to hold the £, how would you make the chart look? completly over looking the very fundamentals driving the price seems crazy for professional traders. my comments were in jest. Pretty sure your lines don’t know talks might end Sunday & changing the angle of dangle would give a completely different read. how was the drop last Monday...



correct forget COTs and whatever else if there’s a no deal no technicals / reports / etc will matter
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Dealers are CLEARLY more bearish than bullish But we all see different things i guess {image}
What you CLEARLY see, I don't. Dealers are net short by a small amount of contracts and are increasing their net short bias, so I confirm it's too early to say anything but should I make a forecast based on these data I'd expect a few hundred pips increase before a bigger correction.
In any case Brexit will drive the market.
Quoting L.m
I'd expect a few hundred pips increase before a bigger correction.
We already had those few hundred pips...market won't come back up for shorts until forever, its not a charity.

If everyone was already short and waiting for a bigger correction, it would never come. It needs bulls who will buy the dips...to drop more and more.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually "read" it.
Quoting L.m
{quote} What you CLEARLY see, I don't. Dealers are net short by a small amount of contracts and are increasing their net short bias, so I confirm it's too early to say anything but should I make a forecast based on these data I'd expect a few hundred pips increase before a bigger correction. In any case Brexit will drive the market.
I expect a few hundred pips increase as well ... but not from here... most likely from way lower down, post the break out of Fridays lows to come back and retest them or alike.

Bottom line, even as of Monday UK could still end up doing a deal, market will always take that into consideration... January 1st, completely different kettle of fish.
Que Sera
Quoting Catempire
{quote} That’s why I said long term mate. A market for all the goods you can’t sell to EU won’t just appear out of nowhere. In fact you won’t be selling them until the U.K. accepts the shit deal or rejoins. Covid didn’t take markets away it just stopped them for a short period of time.
Stay away from the tabloids and making pie in the sky statements .
COVID is the biggest and baddest fundamental financial problem looming, without doubt= a world recession making subject, to be seen.

How low do you think cable can go before the UK becomes a supercharged great investment ,EU and US have problems of their own.
Especially if the Government make the correct assumption they need to make the UK even more attractive through tax. A lot depends on what the gov do next.

Fact Example - on actual todays data
London has never been stronger since Brexit day.It can’t be relocated by the EU ? on the many reasons it exists.
Tariffs will hurt the EU top 5 UK partners as much as or more than the UK.Tariffs are bad ,but for the exporter to implement is utter economic madness for them.
Only 7.3% of UK GDP relates to UK goods exported to the EU Single Market.This is the market you're talking about when crying about our biggest partner.


Remember you're the one who feels he worked out what this all means, with everyone else completely fooled on the other side.
The other day you're adding the lower EU imports against some kind of UK GDP loss .The majority of the value of nearly all imports is with with the exporter.
Lower EU goods imports will be good for the UK considering the trade balance.

“ ... To be clear, the purchase of domestic goods and services increases GDP because it increases domestic production, but the purchase of imported goods and services has no direct impact on GDP”

other fun FACTS already pointed against pie in the sky doom and gloom posters

USA is UK’s largest single trading partner in the world.
Uk is the second biggest purchaser of EU goods in the world.

The two EU countries most affected by no deal
Germany and Netherlands account for well over two thirds of all EU exports to the UK.

The rest of EU countries that matter to the UK
Germany,Netherlands,France.Spain,Belguim account for three quarters of all imports to UK

The two countries most affected by no deal in loss of %GDP are Netherlands + Ireland.


25 years BEFORE Single Market started: 2.4% average annual UK growth
25 years AFTER Single Market started: 2.2% average annual UK growth

Uk fishing declined 50% since 1990
Since 1990 UK went from balanced trade to100 billion trade deficit in goods with EU
The the rest of world UK trade is balanced to UK surplus.

92% of UK businesses, don’t sell to the EU
EU's biggest trading partners have no trade agreement

Applying tariffs will produce a £7+ billion income to UK government on todays statistic.Add that to the net 8-10 billion we send one way to EU.


Average tariff UK side would be 4.5% and EU side would be 5.8%
The biggest impact of tariffs both sides is on Vehicles then Meat which the UK could subsidise from the tariff dividend at no cost.
Human + Incentive = Bias
Quoting Bones
{quote} Stay away from the tabloids and making pie in the sky statements . COVID is the biggest and baddest fundamental financial problem looming, without doubt= a world recession making subject, to be seen. How low do you think cable can go before the UK becomes a supercharged great investment ,EU and US have problems of their own. Especially if the Government make the correct assumption they need to make the UK even more attractive through tax. A lot depends on what the gov do next. Fact Example - on actual todays data London has never been stronger...
Bones with respect, I've been studying the economy for 12 years, I make my own judgements based on what I understand, absolutely F/A to do with tabloids.

"How low do you think cable can go before the UK becomes a supercharged great investment ,EU and US have problems of their own."

The market is valued on many things, if the UK is in an unstable / unknown situation then this will be seen in the price of cable, even if it is just a short term correction, over reaction or whatever... of course it will come back up again, not one person has suggested any different. that is obvious.

You were 2 weeks ago saying "I see no sell off on the pound on Brexit" It's there to see, yet you knock economists predictions based entirely on the 7% figure and the £7b gain to the government. It won't be £7b as the EU will sell elsewhere, as we are seeing with Australia trying to fill the gap, a competitive market and one that won't be filled as simply again your overly simplistic view thinks.

You keep referencing the 7.7% figure like this is the only thing that matters... a no deal Brexit could cause Unemployment to rise 8% ... what do you think this does to the economy ?

What do you think the rate of stimulus will be on a no deal Brexit ?

What does this do to the price of Cable ?

What happens if a % of these goods cannot find a market ?

What knock on effect will that have to the economy ?

The fact that only 7% of goods are exported to the EU will have a disproportionate effect on the industries that don't export to the EU.

"Applying tariffs will produce a £7+ billion income to UK government on todays statistic"

Who picks up the bill on the Export costs Bones ?

You were also 2 weeks ago saying that Economists don't know what they are on about... let me say, they know and understand a great deal more than you do with your overly simplistic outlook based on one dimensional figures... Like that will be the only thing effected/

What happens if there is less money floating around the economy Bones? Irrelevant of a deal or the % of export?

What happens when UK finance and other industries move business abroad?

You say its doom mongering... its not at all its being able to see the possibilities of an evolving situation one that will in no way shape or from be as you suggest.. as is clearly already the case, the EU won't be buying more UK fish if the UK leave on a no deal Bones, theres a start.

You were and still are wrong & you will see!

"But sir its only 7%" OK.
Que Sera
75 traders viewing now, 46 are members:
Guccl
,
FxAzrol
,
BeeTogether
,
,
wasay
,
abifayid
,
Grant2020
,
Lenart80
,
Ehsank78
,
,
Benton
,
,
HeereWeGo
,
44johnw
,
,
,
Loto
,
Dharmasiri
,
ServerUang
,
sarangd11
,
,
MrBobo
,
napassiri
,
andres11617
,
IBabyTrader
,
Cr4zy
,
Fix-it
,
,
alvinego
,
Katanashino
,
,
DeCorso
,
Ryd3n
,
Ziemowit
,
,
manojaum
,
Georginson
,
TrTT
,
Duvdevan
,
,
four.owls
,
Mozahid
,
dylan369
,
,
IceFreya
,
awakelen39