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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #565,121
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:19pm Dec 11, 2020 2:19pm
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yes yes yes
  • #565,122
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:27pm Dec 11, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
from 3178 to 2857 is the most traded range for 2020. so expect some chop here. 2857 is the bottom of the range so good place to close out. no? {image}
appears that above range has been rejected and now building longs (probably for a move next week).

good weekend all.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #565,123
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:49pm Dec 11, 2020 2:49pm
The withdraw was here ..
I Withdrawed all of my daily profit , 500 $ and left 397 $
i Need to keep my diseplane next week to keep up the god work.
Good weekend everyone
yes yes yes
  • #565,124
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:51pm Dec 11, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} appears that above range has been rejected and now building longs (probably for a move next week). good weekend all.
So.

if you were a market maker & If you didn’t want to hold the pound...

how would you make things look ??
Que Sera
  • #565,125
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:53pm Dec 11, 2020 2:53pm
Quoting Bones
here's what I can say about super bear calls , when it went in that yearly low wick it produced 1000 pip wick on monthly , PA -is leading over fundamental by a long way If it goes back it will bounce out like you never seen very high probability. Fundamentals will meet that outlook. I don't think anyone can point to such a cable monthly wick, other than the one highlighted{at an extreme low} I know for a fact big buyers lurk that space. {image} {image}
Your view on the wick of that "no name" monthly candle has changed?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #565,126
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:54pm Dec 11, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} I hope you are aware of a possible drop in GBPUSD which will be approximately 17000 pips down on Monday? I guess you can calculate your loss on your buy position...
Dude although it will drop hard if talks end on Monday I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bounce hard.

The market won’t fully factor in a no deal till the 1st as there is still every chance either side chickens out.

when chaos hits in Jan it’s a different story.

That’s how I see it.
Que Sera
  • #565,127
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:00pm Dec 11, 2020 3:00pm
Quoting Moty
The withdraw was here .. I Withdrawed all of my daily profit , 500 $ and left 397 $ i Need to keep my diseplane next week to keep up the god work. Good weekend everyone
You've done good work to get back your loses this week. Yes, discipline is needed Moty. I normally align with what you say, but I think you jump in too early
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #565,128
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:02pm Dec 11, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} So. if you were a market maker & If you didn’t want to hold the pound... how would you make things look ??
"how would you make things look ??"

i would make the price action appear short term bullish and short the poop out of it. and this is what they do, usually with some short-term TA like macd, etc. that is not what is happened during combined uk/us nor us sessions.

the buying i'm seeing was during the US session. this could be short-covering to fair. at the moment gu is a money pit for me. so i'll probably just watch for the moment.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #565,129
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:07pm Dec 11, 2020 3:07pm
If there is a no deal announcement on sunday, I expect 2900 next week...and start looking for longs between 2500-2750(based off monthly chart) early january(if there won't be a flash crash).
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #565,130
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:07pm Dec 11, 2020 3:07pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} "how would you make things look ??" i would make the price action appear short term bullish and short the poop out of it. and this is what they do, usually with some short-term TA like macd, etc. that is not what is happened during combined uk/us nor us sessions. the buying i'm seeing was during the US session. this could be short-covering to fair. at the moment gu is a money pit for me. so i'll probably just watch for the moment.
I’m just highlighting that things arent always as they seem & thinking in your oppositions shoes when the situation is driven by fundamentals could be wise.

as is clear many people don’t trade fundamentals hence why it might look bullish intraday and beyond, even when it’s far from.

someone has to hold the asset when it drops & if no one wants it, it drops until they do.
Que Sera
  • #565,131
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:16pm Dec 11, 2020 3:16pm
My view from an almost completely psychological point.

fwiw a spike down Monday and a sell off on open (if no deal) buyers will undoubtedly step in and bring it back up... it’s like... more people think the lower it goes...

“Hang on we’ve not left yet, quick this could be cheap, buy buy buy”

it might even bounce close to all the way back up as imo really, from a psychological point of view sunday is not that much different to today - the situation is almost the same, talks are still dire and both sides still don’t really want it.

Yes both sides say we are leaving with no deal BUT we ain’t left yet and there is still the possibility of more talks, politics & swings, on “last ditch attempt” bla bla bla

the closer we get to the 1st after some bumpy rides I expect the pound to start to sell off again, selling into buy volume & on the 1st another spike down and to be sold most of the winter.

**uk government will be doing a lot of stimulus on a no deal**

worth baring in mind.
Que Sera
  • #565,132
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:16pm Dec 11, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} I hope you are aware of a possible drop in GBPUSD which will be approximately 17000 pips down on Monday? I guess you can calculate your loss on your buy position...
17k pips drop on monday ? right....

The market knows both no deal and deal are possible. Lately GBPUSD is pricing both outcome, there won't be any big suprises

17k pips drop in a single day would almost mean end of the world, or UK removed from the worldmap
17k pips = GBPUSD negative...

Do no scare people with such comments
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #565,133
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:20pm Dec 11, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} 17k pips drop on monday ? right.... The market knows both no deal and deal are possible. Lately GBPUSD is pricing both outcome, there won't be any big suprises 17k pips drop in a single day would almost mean end of the world, or UK removed from the worldmap 17k pips = GBPUSD negative... Do no scare people with such comments
He probably meant 170, or it was a joke.
  • #565,134
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:20pm Dec 11, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I’m just highlighting that things arent always as they seem & thinking in your oppositions shoes when the situation is driven by fundamentals could be wise. as is clear many people don’t trade fundamentals hence why it might look bullish intraday and beyond, even when it’s far from. someone has to hold the asset when it drops & if no one wants it, it drops until they do.
if you saw how i trade you'd know i'm always looking for the hidden hand that moves the markets. i use terms like "da boyz" etc. not always right on what they are doing but that is what i'm looking for most days. at the moment i appear to be 1 step behind the gu movers and shakers, i'll work on that. or da boyz are not unified and that is coming out in the trade. weak dollar overhang mixed with the bearish brexit flash news makes a chop market. chop markets are not my friend normally.

i'm open to your fundie inputs. do share at important price points. however, at the moment you views appear fixed and that's not helpful to a trader imo.

do appreciate you thoughts though.

cheers.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #565,135
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:23pm Dec 11, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} He probably meant 170, or it was a joke.
I guess so
Because even 1700 pips is not doable really

Market is factoring both outcome, there won't be any real suprises
Maybe 200/300 pips move but more i doubt it really
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #565,136
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:23pm Dec 11, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} 17k pips drop on monday ? right.... The market knows both no deal and deal are possible. Lately GBPUSD is pricing both outcome, there won't be any big suprises 17k pips drop in a single day would almost mean end of the world, or UK removed from the worldmap 17k pips = GBPUSD negative... Do no scare people with such comments
17k pips drop. Boe will pay u to hold gbp
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #565,137
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:26pm Dec 11, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} if you saw how i trade you'd know i'm always looking for the hidden hand that moves the markets. i use terms like "da boyz" etc. not always right on what they are doing but that is what i'm looking for most days. at the moment i appear to be 1 step behind the gu movers and shakers, i'll work on that. or da boyz are not unified and that is coming out in the trade. weak dollar overhang mixed with the bearish brexit flash news makes a chop market. chop markets are not my friend normally. i'm open to your fundie inputs. do share at important...
appreciated mate I fully understand we’re all looking at different things... I would guess, maybe, that your technique is harder to read on the big moves tho? I mean I know if I had £1b I wouldn’t make my method of disposal obvious to the market, quite those opposite..

if you let people know the technique when it doesn’t really matter when it does you’ve got them by the bollocks. Big moves matter. A game of equal sides afterall !

Sure you would agree tho regardless markets hate uncertainty - the uncertainty currently on the GBP side more than the usa side

if we have a brexit no deal the uncertainty will be magnified as I shit you not, NO one in U.K. knows WTF is going on, not even Boris.
Que Sera
  • #565,138
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:26pm Dec 11, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting Bacco
{quote} 17k pips drop. Boe will pay u to hold gbp
Always wanted to be a bank with negative interest rates.
Que Sera
  • #565,139
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:26pm Dec 11, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting Catempire
**uk government will be doing a lot of stimulus on a no deal**
Either that, or there would be bankruptcies left, right and centre. But I am not sure which poison they would prefer, disaster capitalism may be their motto.
  • #565,140
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:27pm Dec 11, 2020 3:27pm
Noone thanked me for my great predicion ...

Why Dumboooos


This thread and people in it just suk.


You deserve the 80-85% loser rate.

Enjoy
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
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