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Up and under price pattern

  • #3,501
  • Nov 19, 2020 3:04am Nov 19, 2020 3:04am
some humor when i looked back at my previous post.

there is a famous book advising trading in the zone, whereas i trade out of the zone.
people advised to think outside the box, whereas i think Inthebox.
LOL ...... don't know what to do with my life ........

but in trading, i following the trend. checked at least one correct.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,502
  • Nov 19, 2020 3:20am Nov 19, 2020 3:20am
Quoting Inthebox
Which is more important? or which is primary, which is secondary? Location or QM
Hey for me is QM first before locations. Levels are just for reference to expect a QM to happen around it. But examples like the GJ madness this week showed that disregarding locations can still get you some nice trades
  • #3,503
  • Nov 19, 2020 3:53am Nov 19, 2020 3:53am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Hey for me is QM first before locations. Levels are just for reference to expect a QM to happen around it. But examples like the GJ madness this week showed that disregarding locations can still get you some nice trades
gj was because it was ranging. i can just put a BB and trade from lower to upper band and vice versa, i can made quite a bid of money.
even if i made a mistake i can quite easily BE to get out of a bad situation.
but when trending starts, cannot get out of mistake trade that easy.

for me, it is selective trading.
i need only to win 2 trades out of 3 every day.
one in each session. but i normally will be very cautious or don't even trade NY session.

i just choose a good location to trade and let qm tells me what to do.
qm above zone buy.
qm below zone sell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,504
  • Nov 19, 2020 4:15am Nov 19, 2020 4:15am
this is the very last bid i want to say about QM and i have nothing more to add.

going forward, it will depend on the number of participants to keep this thread alive.
it will be sad if it dies a natural death of no one participating.
or rather an unnatural death, because actually one is trading the pullback of a big engulfing candle at SR SD zone.

ok. each one just put in one location trade before it happens.
don't need many. just 3 or 4 locations everyday for discussion.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,505
  • Nov 19, 2020 5:45am Nov 19, 2020 5:45am
EURGBP

Inside this H4 supply zone (https://www.tradingview.com/x/RVxqBnzc/), a fresh bearish QM is present in M15 (https://www.tradingview.com/x/kPa5ufWE/).
Entry got stopped out.

When i go through the charts, i find frequent SL hit as common occurrence. Is the strategy prone to poor win ratio though the R/R in winning trades may result in positive outcome?

Given different ways of trading QM and lack of filters to minimise SL hits (based on self knowledge), i find it difficult for the self-learning process.
  • #3,506
  • Nov 19, 2020 6:46am Nov 19, 2020 6:46am
Quoting rmchokku
EURGBP Inside this H4 supply zone (https://www.tradingview.com/x/RVxqBnzc/), a fresh bearish QM is present in M15 (https://www.tradingview.com/x/kPa5ufWE/). Entry got stopped out. When i go through the charts, i find frequent SL hit as common occurrence. Is the strategy prone to poor win ratio though the R/R in winning trades may result in positive outcome? Given different ways of trading QM and lack of filters to minimise SL hits (based on self knowledge), i find it difficult for the self-learning process.
different levels of knowledge and experiences will see charts differently from each other.

what are the filters?
i use only one here - trend line. there are others like fibonacci and divergence.

downward sloping TL tells me that i can only sell.
then the pullback to resistance.
when london opened wala .... bearish qm appeared.
the right downward sloping line engulfed the left one, pullback back to qm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-11-19 20_54_45-Window.png Size: 34 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,507
  • Nov 19, 2020 7:43am Nov 19, 2020 7:43am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} different levels of knowledge and experiences will see charts differently from each other. what are the filters? i use only one here - trend line. there are others like fibonacci and divergence. downward sloping TL tells me that i can only sell. then the pullback to resistance. when london opened wala .... bearish qm appeared. the right downward sloping line engulfed the left one, pullback back to qm. {image}
Agree with the reason on difference in viewing charts. Also, rulesets are different for each one.

For instance, the H1 supply zone is no longer tradeable for me as a supply/demand trader because it got invalidated by the wick (https://www.tradingview.com/x/dXzHoRy0/). Also, I consider price is in sideways market in H1 after the trendline break. However, this false break is acceptable for someone to trade.

Filters: Although the core concept of QM is known, it is not enough for achieving success with QM strategy. Some of the confluence factors i read about in the internet are presence of a higher timeframe zone, support/resistance, indicator divergence, trend. I've challenges integrating these into the QM entry and would like to know how to & their effectiveness in filtering bad trades.

At times, I get a feeling of taking my trades just because of a QM without additional confluence. Moreover, lack of strategy experience with QM (win ratio, frequency of sl hits, trend/counter trend performance) creates doubts and psychologically drives me towards gambling mindset/throwing darts randomly.
  • #3,508
  • Nov 19, 2020 7:45am Nov 19, 2020 7:45am
Quoting rmchokku
EURGBP Inside this H4 supply zone (https://www.tradingview.com/x/RVxqBnzc/), a fresh bearish QM is present in M15 (https://www.tradingview.com/x/kPa5ufWE/). Entry got stopped out. When i go through the charts, i find frequent SL hit as common occurrence. Is the strategy prone to poor win ratio...
Do you see any issue with this trade?
  • #3,509
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:08am Nov 19, 2020 8:08am
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} For instance, the H1 supply zone is no longer tradeable for me as a supply/demand trader because it got invalidated by the wick (https://www.tradingview.com/x/dXzHoRy0/). Also, I consider price is in sideways market in H1 after the trendline break. However, this false break is acceptable for someone to trade.
i see the main difference now.
you used supply and it got invalidated.
i used resistance (drawn from one fractal to another). it remains and never gets invalidated.
the h1 upward break of trend line and resistance were considered false as retail stops got taken out and price came back down. it's just the wick and no candle closed above them.

you can see that today i was using SR for my 2 trades earlier and both successful.
the location and ltf qm will not work for SD trader but good for SR trader because when price comes to an important location, it ranges up and down there for a while. this is where the retailers got played out as stops were taken out.

in conclusion you might want to consider using SR instead of SD to see whether your trading improves.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,510
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:23am Nov 19, 2020 8:23am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} i see the main difference now. you used supply and it got invalidated. i used resistance (drawn from one fractal to another). it remains and never gets invalidated. the h1 upward break of trend line and resistance were considered false as retail stops got taken out and price came back down. it's just the wick and no candle closed above them. you can see that today i was using SR for my 2 trades earlier and both successful. the location and ltf qm will not work for SD trader but good for SR trader because when price comes to an important...
Thanks Inthebox for your feedback. I take your point.
  • #3,511
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:51am Nov 19, 2020 8:51am
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Do you see any issue with this trade?
it wasn't clear to me.
you did not show your m15 entry.
if it's h4 supply, it got invalidated.
SD trader's requirement is see candle confirmation before entry. so cannot use limit order.

if m15 1st entry were taken, the next candle invalidates the qm.
you will have to decide whether to keep the entry or not.

if you take the 2nd and 3rd entry, it will then be based on false break of resistance.
tp at next fractal. gains between 15-20 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-11-19 22_49_42-Window.png Size: 39 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,512
  • Nov 19, 2020 9:45am Nov 19, 2020 9:45am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} it wasn't clear to me. you did not show your m15 entry. if it's h4 supply, it got invalidated. SD trader's requirement is see candle confirmation before entry. so cannot use limit order. if m15 1st entry were taken, the next candle invalidates the qm. you will have to decide whether to keep the entry or not. if you take the 2nd and 3rd entry, it will then be based on false break of resistance. tp at next fractal. gains between 15-20 pips. {image}
Sorry, missed to mark the entry and SL. The small colored area marks the QM zone. It will be a limit order entry is at 0.89765 and SL 0.8990.
  • #3,513
  • Edited 10:27am Nov 19, 2020 10:02am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Sorry, missed to mark the entry and SL. The small colored area marks the QM zone. It will be a limit order entry is at 0.89765 and SL 0.8990.
using 13.5 pips SL for limit order during london and NY is too small.
use SR as your SL and TP.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,514
  • Nov 19, 2020 12:57pm Nov 19, 2020 12:57pm
Quasimodo, Up and Under, round number =>short GU 1,3250
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,515
  • Nov 19, 2020 1:51pm Nov 19, 2020 1:51pm
EU sell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 77 KB
  • #3,516
  • Nov 19, 2020 3:31pm Nov 19, 2020 3:31pm
First failed, so second try...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,517
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:14pm Nov 19, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} using 13.5 pips SL for limit order during london and NY is too small. use SR as your SL and TP.
Ok, How do you place your SL when following Support and Resistance based approach? I typically keep it above the supply zone + spread.

I have gone with tight SL but a wide SL could affect R/R.
  • #3,518
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:29pm Nov 19, 2020 8:29pm
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Ok, How do you place your SL when following Support and Resistance based approach? I typically keep it above the supply zone + spread. I have gone with tight SL but a wide SL could affect R/R.
show me your chart. got to be your entry time frame chart.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,519
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:33pm Nov 19, 2020 10:33pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} show me your chart. got to be your entry time frame chart.
Will go with same EURGBP M15 chart posted yesterday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0uIXjOU4/. Refer post#3512
SL is shown as 0.8985 in Trading view but it will be 0.8990 after spread.
  • #3,520
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:08pm Nov 19, 2020 11:08pm
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Will go with same EURGBP M15 chart posted yesterday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0uIXjOU4/. Refer post#3512 SL is shown as 0.8985 in Trading view but it will be 0.8990 after spread.
do your own research and back test for m15 chart how far can price move.

let's just say for example for EUR pairs average 12 -30 pips move.

i look left for the nearest fractals for SL and TP.
RR does not play any part in this.

so the nearest TP of 17 pips satisfy condition and 33 pips does not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP,M15.png Size: 35 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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