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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #558,901
  • Nov 14, 2020 10:55am Nov 14, 2020 10:55am
as a trend trader, it does not matter to me that the usd will weaken or get stronger.
I just get on the bus, no matter where it's going.
  • #558,902
  • Nov 14, 2020 10:55am Nov 14, 2020 10:55am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I don't think the stimulus will have any effect, it became boring to the market after being dragged out for months. And as for USDx...I can see it go towards 110 in the years to come. During every democratic presidency, the dollar index went up heavily. I am not looking for any logic behind that, just looking at the stats. I may be completely wrong, of course, nothing can be predicted long term with a certainty, but history tends to repeat itself.
Yes, I believe if vaccine covid is found , it will give big impact to USA, as their economic will be recovered faster, then soon it will be supported by FED by raising rates to 2 - 3% to press the economy not to grow too fast. Then we will see as you said DXY will jump up to 100 ish again maybe to 110. But hard to say for now DXY will reverse soon, even it looks like very hard to close above 94.65, as their amount of infection people is no 1 in the world. They need more money to be printed right now to survive from this pandemic and support the economy.
  • #558,903
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:06am Nov 14, 2020 11:06am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Yes, I believe if vaccine covid is found , it will give big impact to USA, as their economic will be recovered faster, then soon it will be supported by FED by raising rates to 2 - 3% to press the economy not to grow too fast. Then we will see as you said DXY will jump up to 100 ish again maybe to 110. But hard to say for now DXY will reverse soon, even it looks like very hard to close above 94.65, as their amount of infection people is no 1 in the world. They need more money to be printed right now to survive from this pandemic and support...
Everytime we are stuck in a tight range, people tend to think it will stay there. When you remember EU between 2300-2500, it was stucks there for months...but when it broke down, it didn't stop...no reversals, no correction, just drop after drop. Same with EU around 800...stuck for so long, people were trading careless within the range...and then 1000 pips up like it was a piece of cake, many people still trapped in shorts there. It is always like that...now it looks like it can't go below 1600...but believe me, once it starts, the range will be gone and it will be one-way again...no corrections, no nothing. I have seen this many times...thats why I am careful with holding trades for longer than a few days...once a strong move starts, all scalping will be over, until it finds a new range again.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #558,904
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:06am Nov 14, 2020 11:06am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Yes, I believe if vaccine covid is found , it will give big impact to USA, as their economic will be recovered faster, then soon it will be supported by FED by raising rates to 2 - 3% to press the economy not to grow too fast. Then we will see as you said DXY will jump up to 100 ish again maybe to 110. But hard to say for now DXY will reverse soon, even it looks like very hard to close above 94.65, as their amount of infection people is no 1 in the world. They need more money to be printed right now to survive from this pandemic and support...
Bullard: Fed still "not thinking about thinking about" raising rates
Bullard: Fed still "not thinking about thinking about" raising rates
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #558,905
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:15am Nov 14, 2020 11:15am
Quoting Barnell
{quote} Bullard: Fed still "not thinking about thinking about" raising rates Bullard: Fed still "not thinking about thinking about" raising rates
Yes, for now FED won't do it, but If you read further my post, I implied that if vaccine found, and condition supported with the economic recovery , then Fed will raise rates. Not in near term surely.
  • #558,906
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:16am Nov 14, 2020 11:16am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Yes, I believe if vaccine covid is found , it will give big impact to USA, as their economic will be recovered faster, then soon it will be supported by FED by raising rates to 2 - 3% to press the economy not to grow too fast. Then we will see as you said DXY will jump up to 100 ish again maybe to 110. But hard to say for now DXY will reverse soon, even it looks like very hard to close above 94.65, as their amount of infection people is no 1 in the world. They need more money to be printed right now to survive from this pandemic and support...
however, there will be problems with this vaccine.
especially if vaccination is made compulsory.
  • #558,907
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:19am Nov 14, 2020 11:19am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Everytime we are stuck in a tight range, people tend to think it will stay there. When you remember EU between 2300-2500, it was stucks there for months...but when it broke down, it didn't stop...no reversals, no correction, just drop after drop. Same with EU around 800...stuck for so long, people were trading careless within the range...and then 1000 pips up like it was a piece of cake, many people still trapped in shorts there. It is always like that...now it looks like it can't go below 1600...but believe me, once it starts, the range...
Yes, it often happens, moreover in this pandemic condition, markets is crazy so we should trade more carefully.
  • #558,908
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:22am Nov 14, 2020 11:22am
Quoting Barnell
{quote} Bullard: Fed still "not thinking about thinking about" raising rates Bullard: Fed still "not thinking about thinking about" raising rates
Central banks(or any bank for that matter) can't be trusted, whatever they publicly say needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They have been saying for years they will NOT lower the fed rate by even 1%...and then they cut the rate on a SUNDAY! And remember what SNB did? And they said they would never do such a thing...like one week before that.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #558,909
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:32am Nov 14, 2020 11:32am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Central banks(or any bank for that matter) can't be trusted, whatever they publicly say needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They have been saying for years they will NOT lower the fed rate by even 1%...and then they cut the rate on a SUNDAY! And remember what SNB did? And they said they would never do such a thing...like one week before that.
well yes, if you use a strategy that is also exposed to this danger it is not very good.
  • #558,910
  • Nov 14, 2020 11:55am Nov 14, 2020 11:55am
Daily plan hasn't changed.....let it rise and short it

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #558,911
  • Nov 14, 2020 2:52pm Nov 14, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting kuroro001
Daily plan hasn't changed.....let it rise and short it {image}
I very much hope that you are right but cable is rising at a snail pace with a low abnormal ATR. Maybe Friday's uptrend was only retracement so it will quickly resume its downtrend as fodder for the bear
  • #558,912
  • Nov 14, 2020 3:44pm Nov 14, 2020 3:44pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} My guess would be Boris wants to make some shitty deal with the EU, just so he doesn't get the heat for a no-deal brexit.
Cummings left due to internal warring in No 10. Nothing to do with Brexit. In fact, Cummings has been working on mass testing of late. Nothing to do with Brexit. Read Sunday Times for more information.
  • #558,913
  • Nov 14, 2020 3:47pm Nov 14, 2020 3:47pm
Quoting letsride
{quote} Cummings left due to internal warring in No 10. Nothing to do with Brexit. In fact, Cummings has been working on mass testing of late. Nothing to do with Brexit. Read Sunday Times for more information.
Whatever happened there, it definitely won't be in Sunday Times, the true story, I mean. We will never know...and honestly, I don't really care.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #558,914
  • Nov 14, 2020 4:03pm Nov 14, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting kuroro001
Daily plan hasn't changed.....let it rise and short it {image}
do you mean to short at the close of every bullish daily candle?
  • #558,915
  • Edited 7:28pm Nov 14, 2020 7:14pm | Edited 7:28pm
...Dly is below...starting from that 2675 lo we have a fractal LL, then LH, HL, H, HL, HH, L, a 2nd HH, and finally a HL at this week's 3107 lo. It's 20/50/100 ema's are crossed up. This t/f is therefore in a general fractal uptrend.

Wkly is below Dly and starting with the LL at 1411, we have LL, LH, HL, H, HL, LH, L H, HL, LH, H, HL, HL, so this t/f is in a general fractal uptrend but it's same ema's are neutral.

Mthly is below Wkly and starting at the same 1411 lo we have a LL, HL, LH, HL and it's same ema's are crossed down, so this t/f is really ranging - bearish, with some recent strength off a 2nd HL @ 2675.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #558,916
  • Nov 15, 2020 3:12am Nov 15, 2020 3:12am
Quoting genadi
{quote} do you mean to short at the close of every bullish daily candle?
No, i mean to short when the system shows extreme upside move
Then short it at resistance, or whenever your system tells you so
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #558,917
  • Nov 15, 2020 3:41am Nov 15, 2020 3:41am
I have conducted deep analysis for the pairs I trade, comparing similar setups in the past and using my system technique and have decided to do the following as my plan:

1. Cable, I will buying the dips “carefully” to 1.3660 - 1.3780, will look for some weakness between those two levels to sell it, I expect it to drop hard to sub 1.15. I expect the move to 1.36-1.37 to be completed somewhere between end Nov to beginning Jan

2. EU, similar setup of cable, “careful” buying to 1.2050 to 1.2115 and then selling depending on weakness

3. Gold, “careful” buying to 1921 to 1938 and then selling depending on weakness

of course that does not mean i will buying or selling blindly, I will keep going in/out and if we reach the desired sell levels then i intend to keep few positions open to ride the train for few hundreds of pips

Wish everyone successful trading ahead
  • #558,918
  • Nov 15, 2020 4:41am Nov 15, 2020 4:41am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} No, i mean to short when the system shows extreme upside move Then short it at resistance, or whenever your system tells you so
and where are your targets for the move down? 1.2800 ?
  • #558,919
  • Nov 15, 2020 6:17am Nov 15, 2020 6:17am
Quoting genadi
{quote} and where are your targets for the move down? 1.2800 ?
I have a few downside targets such as 3020, 2880, 2750 and all the way down to 2100

I'll short the rallies for now, wait for a rise, load shorts
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #558,920
  • Nov 15, 2020 6:56am Nov 15, 2020 6:56am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I have a few downside targets such as 3020, 2880, 2750 and all the way down to 2100 I'll short the rallies for now, wait for a rise, load shorts
do you use stop losses for your trades? or positions are very very small ?
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