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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #558,881
  • Nov 14, 2020 3:26am Nov 14, 2020 3:26am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} With Cummings leaving, something is happening for sure. Probably he is upset with pm decision
Yes, this is important news, and after Biden win a deal is very likely. I just don't think it will happen next week, although progress can be made towards the deal.
  • #558,882
  • Nov 14, 2020 4:22am Nov 14, 2020 4:22am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I don't care for the "noise", cable will drop, no matter what happens fundamentally. I just follow the chart.
Not all news are noise.
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #558,883
  • Nov 14, 2020 4:53am Nov 14, 2020 4:53am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} My guess would be Boris wants to make some shitty deal with the EU, just so he doesn't get the heat for a no-deal brexit.
Very difficult situation. They want to be completely free from eu laws, but access to their market implies to follow eu laws.
If UK agree with that, is far from what the people had voted for.
And no deal would be a bomb for uk economy.
In any case, he is screwed.
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #558,884
  • Nov 14, 2020 4:54am Nov 14, 2020 4:54am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Yes, this is important news, and after Biden win a deal is very likely. I just don't think it will happen next week, although progress can be made towards the deal.
Or.maybe....we go towards another postponing....
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #558,885
  • Edited 5:39am Nov 14, 2020 5:02am | Edited 5:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20201105-180244.png Size: 239 KB
November projection of 600 - 800 pips range gradually unfolding. Current range being 460 pips (1.2854 - 1.3314) against projected levels between 1.2660 to 1.3380, now we have seen 1.3314 just 66 pips shy of 1.3380 projection.

Still additional 140 more pips expected to break either range levels...

Also noteworthy that most repeated November ranges are between 400 - 600 pips.

My bias is now tilted to the downside around 1.2960/1.3010 area.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #558,886
  • Nov 14, 2020 5:21am Nov 14, 2020 5:21am
Quoting Barnell
{quote} Not all news are noise.
Everything is in the chart for me...news are just the fuel. But thats how I trade, everybody should do what they believe in.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #558,887
  • Nov 14, 2020 5:35am Nov 14, 2020 5:35am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Everything is in the chart for me...news are just the fuel. But thats how I trade, everybody should do what they believe in.
Totally agree
  • #558,888
  • Edited 6:36am Nov 14, 2020 5:44am | Edited 6:36am
I respect the bearish view/analysis from George and Online Addict but I don't understand it - from a technical/chart reading, other than the R:R favouring it from a range analysis as George points out, and, in and of itself - the weekly candle is bearish despite the bullish body. Of course a change in the 'mood music'/brexit deal negotiation updates/briefings to pessimistic could help the bearish viewpoint re future pa, and we will likely get some info on this as this coming week progresses.

Now, I like everyone else do not even know what the next tick in price will be when market opens or at any time but;

* 1hr from Friday's lo as a LL has seen a LH, HL, HL, H, HL, L, H, HL, and although not fractal yet what will be a HH...it's 20/50/100 ema's have turned neutral from crossed down. Price

* 4hr is still in a general fractal uptrend and it's same ema's are crossed up although it could be developing an H&S reversal pattern.

NB: On 1hr and 4hr price closed right at the top of a potential sbr/res zone.

* Daily is in a general fractal uptrend with a 2nd HH printed at 3314 and a HL printed at this last week's/friday's 3107 lo. It's same ema's remain crossed up.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #558,889
  • Nov 14, 2020 5:52am Nov 14, 2020 5:52am
Quoting Headland
I respect the bearish view/analysis from George and Online Addict but I don't understand it - from a technical/chart reading, other than the R:R favouring it from a range analysis as George points out, and, in and of itself - the weekly candle is bearish despite the bullish body. Of course a change in the 'mood music'/brexit deal negotiation updates/briefings to pessimistic could help the bearish viewpoint re future pa, and we will likely get some info on this as this coming week progresses. Now, I like everyone else do not even know what the next...
As online addict rightly pointed out, news are like fuel to aid price movement.

In the above screenshot, I had forecasted movement between 1.2660 - 1.3380 as possible levels for November since 31st of October. I even gave possible excuses for the movements to those potential levels.

I plan ahead and the chart of previous, present and future all point towards price boundaries which factors in technical, fundamentals and sentiment analysis.

Putting the 3 analysis together can be so confusing, the solution is to find a harmony and apply good money management.

Many find it hard that we are trading against pre planned price actions and these news are excuses to make these prices move the way they do.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #558,890
  • Nov 14, 2020 5:56am Nov 14, 2020 5:56am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} As online addict rightly pointed out, news are like fuel to aid price movement. In the above screenshot, I had forecasted movement between 1.2660 - 1.3380 as possible levels for November since 31st of October. I even gave possible excuses for the movements to those potential levels. I plan ahead and the chart of previous, present and future all point towards price boundaries which factors in technical, fundamentals and sentiment analysis. Putting the 3 analysis together can be so confusing, the solution is to find a harmony and apply good...
Thank you.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #558,891
  • Nov 14, 2020 5:58am Nov 14, 2020 5:58am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} As online addict rightly pointed out, news are like fuel to aid price movement. In the above screenshot, I had forecasted movement between 1.2660 - 1.3380 as possible levels for November since 31st of October. I even gave possible excuses for the movements to those potential levels. I plan ahead and the chart of previous, present and future all point towards price boundaries which factors in technical, fundamentals and sentiment analysis. Putting the 3 analysis together can be so confusing, the solution is to find a harmony and apply good...
Georginson, I think not only in the form of writing, if you have a certain view from your point of view, it can be in the chart images, where is the Risk, Entry, SL and TP so that we can see more clearly what you mean.
  • #558,892
  • Nov 14, 2020 6:08am Nov 14, 2020 6:08am
Quoting Arief-
{quote} Georginson, I think not only in the form of writing, if you have a certain view from your point of view, it can be in the chart images, where is the Risk, Entry, SL and TP so that we can see more clearly what you mean.
First and foremost, I prefer write ups to making use of charts to explain my point of view.

I analyse from perspective of swing which can tolerate couple of hundred pips drawdown before target may be attained.

Selling from 1.3200-1.3380 is my focal point, I will only set my stop loss at 1.3500 around previous high of the year (September), while my target will be 1.2960/1.3010.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #558,893
  • Nov 14, 2020 6:25am Nov 14, 2020 6:25am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} First and foremost, I prefer write ups to making use of charts to explain my point of view. I analyse from perspective of swing which can tolerate couple of hundred pips drawdown before target may be attained. Selling from 1.3200-1.3380 is my focal point, I will only set my stop loss at 1.3500 around previous high of the year (September), while my target will be 1.2960/1.3010.
It's better sir.. and clearly enough set the RR when you describe you as a good long term trading, I'm afraid your good scheme is misunderstood by scalpers or short term trading where they only target between 20p to 100p in each trade. thanks
  • #558,894
  • Nov 14, 2020 7:02am Nov 14, 2020 7:02am
Quoting Headland
I respect the bearish view/analysis from George and Online Addict but I don't understand it
As for me, I see a strong topping pattern on the weekly chart, thats all...it might go to 3300 or higher, then I would expect a drop towards 2750 or it may go towards or above 3500, then I would expect a drop of 1000 pips or more. I don't use SLs, so I rather trade in the direction I think its heading to...I don't mind some DD...and a 100 pip DD on GU is nothing, I can take much more. What I couldn't take is to wake up to a sudden GU crash, while being long and targetting 50-100 pips or so.

Same goes with EU...I expect 1200 or less...so does it make sense for me to long? What for? To hope for 1900 or a little more and collect big negative swaps each day? If I expect a drop of 500+ and a spike up no more than 100-200 pips, I trade in the short direction...just to be safe. I think once EU starts dropping, it will drop so heavy, it will be killing accounts for months, because all retail is now so confident with longs, it will buy every dip...I will see them at 800 eventually. I expect a lot of whining and manipulation calling soon.

But I am still scalping EU or GU longs, when I see a chance, like on friday...but I quickly get out with profit, not holding for long. I sleep way better with shorts at current levels.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #558,895
  • Nov 14, 2020 7:18am Nov 14, 2020 7:18am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} As for me, I see a strong topping pattern on the weekly chart, thats all...it might go to 3300 or higher, then I would expect a drop towards 2750 or it may go towards or above 3500, then I would expect a drop of 1000 pips or more. I don't use SLs, so I rather trade in the direction I think its heading to...I don't mind some DD...and a 100 pip DD on GU is nothing, I can take much more. What I couldn't take is to wake up to a sudden GU crash, while being long and targetting 50-100 pips or so. Same goes with EU...I expect 1200 or...
Thanks for that.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #558,896
  • Nov 14, 2020 7:43am Nov 14, 2020 7:43am
So I guess we will have people buying dips and people selling rises...

Who wins?
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #558,897
  • Nov 14, 2020 7:48am Nov 14, 2020 7:48am
Quoting Barnell
So I guess we will have people buying dips and people selling rises... Who wins?
Everyone who closes their trade in profit.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #558,898
  • Nov 14, 2020 7:49am Nov 14, 2020 7:49am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Everyone who closes their trade in profit.
Indeed..
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #558,899
  • Nov 14, 2020 8:38am Nov 14, 2020 8:38am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} As for me, I see a strong topping pattern on the weekly chart, thats all...it might go to 3300 or higher, then I would expect a drop towards 2750 or it may go towards or above 3500, then I would expect a drop of 1000 pips or more. I don't use SLs, so I rather trade in the direction I think its heading to...I don't mind some DD...and a 100 pip DD on GU is nothing, I can take much more. What I couldn't take is to wake up to a sudden GU crash, while being long and targetting 50-100 pips or so. Same goes with EU...I expect 1200 or...
You maybe right or wrong, the drop for EU & GU seems make sense around 500 - 1000 pips, but what about the stimulus? After US election, they plan to launch stimulus in big amounts next month, so I think for a few weeks after stimulus launch, DXY will drop to 88-89 maybe, then it will slowly go up waiting for good news about the covid vaccine, maybe took months to wake DXY up to 100 or more.
I maybe wrong, but this is the scenario I think that could be possibly happened.
  • #558,900
  • Nov 14, 2020 8:43am Nov 14, 2020 8:43am
Quoting hans91
{quote} You maybe right or wrong, the drop for EU & GU seems make sense around 500 - 1000 pips, but what about the stimulus? After US election, they plan to launch stimulus in big amounts next month, so I think for a few weeks after stimulus launch, DXY will drop to 88-89 maybe, then it will slowly go up waiting for good news about the covid vaccine, maybe took months to wake DXY up to 100 or more. I maybe wrong, but this is the scenario I think that could be possibly happened.
I don't think the stimulus will have any effect, it became boring to the market after being dragged out for months. And as for USDx...I can see it go towards 110 in the years to come. During every democratic presidency, the dollar index went up heavily. I am not looking for any logic behind that, just looking at the stats. I may be completely wrong, of course, nothing can be predicted long term with a certainty, but history tends to repeat itself.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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