Cable Update (GBPUSD)

No Bones, I make no such claims of being on equal footing with you in terms of analysis. However, it's typical you think I am.
I just posted my analysis, that is all.

The fact that you see this posting of my analysis as a challenge to you and your rich history, or some king of contest as an equal to you, tells me all I need to know and confirms my thoughts.

It's analysis, not a contest.

Your making it a contest ,I'm try ing to help
Theres not many people with history on these forums ,the reason is clear to me why
as you only meet I know it already attitude.

Theres no easy way to say it ,and not get that reaction,
take it all how you like ,no problem.

Alright mate, it's all good.

My plan for next week

Will see where the price goes, will be adding positions on daily and or 4hr chart.

Price will both hit 2100 and 3300 in the near future
Trade accordingly

... when you measure market conditions on any given t/f by fractal price swings then the monthly is ranging, the weekly is in a general PA uptrend that has pulled back off a HH to 38.2% of it (1411-3482) @ a prev sw hi on that t/f (=prev res =pot rbs,) and the daily is in a classic PA downtrend with 2 x LH's and a LL now. No-one knows for sure what will happen next - whether the weekly uptrend will resume after this pullback, -or- whether the daily downtrend will continue after it's pullback. Ie: We don't know whether the move off 2675 lo to last week's 2805 hi is an upside pullback in the daily downtrend or the start of another impulse wave in the weekly uptrend.

We have a weekly bearish engulfing close, but, dropping down some of us have the last 4hr candle as a bullish engulfing close... As Bones implies in one of his posts over this w/e the weekly (ie the longer t/f) contains more information than a 4hr candle and as such a longer t/f candle should be given more weight...and that is generally good advice.
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We read a lot of 'absolute certainty' in these forums, and statements of probability being expressed. But do posters tell you what their absolute certain views or probability expressed is based on, let alone the actual probability? Take this weekly bearish engulfing candle as an example....is what seems as the greater probability of a further leg down based on anecdotal evidence or empirical evidence, and what does 'greater probability mean?' It could mean that on just 51% of times across a sample of x this occurred...but although 51% is indeed the greater probability it does not represent much if an edge. Further, even if a statement of probability is based on empirical recorded evidence and not just anecdotal observation/what we have learned/been told... what sample size constitutes 'representative,' is it 10, 20, 100, 200 ? In a sense unless you are trading on a weekly or daily trigger - what might happen re the weekly is not so important/completely unimportant [and that is certainly the case for me where 90% of my entries are taken on a t/f 5min or below,] but the general point holds good whatever t/f's you look at.

The actual probability of something happening that has 2 possible outcomes (it will -or- it won't) - on the next occasion it sets-up is 50%, but the implied probability across the sample based on a representative historical sample is whatever you have worked it out to be. It is important to judge whether this holds good across the next equal sample size of set-ups not just on one individual occasion, ie whether what you have adjudged to represent a trading edge holds up. For me, I am not interested unless there is an 80%+ greater probability of 1:1+, or 70%+ @ 2:1+.

Remember too, that those who make predictions are generally 'invested' in those predictions, maybe both financially and from an ego point of view when they publish their views because there are plenty of others happy to tell them they wrong, or proven wrong. When you are invested in a 'prediction' it is difficult to judge an edge over a sample because it becomes all about that individual trade and more difficult to let that sample play out to see whether it stands up. [This assumes that what got you in the market on that occasion actually represents a proven edge over a representative sample]. I wonder how many potentially sound edges have been abandoned because of this and because traders did not know the essential stats you need to know about any edge in order to give you the best chance of trading it successfully/profitably? -This includes risk and money management optimised to the performance of the edge over the representative sample of times it has set-up, that proved the edge exists.

Finally, this post is aimed at no-one in particular - it is just a response to posts I see here over the days and weeks from a lot of posters.
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Going on hols tomorrow so will be not be trading for 2-3weeks or so - catching the last of some late socially-distanced summer sun.

Last weeks bear struggle @1.271, i expect there's rebound to 1.291 to load short.

i expect some retrace to 1.2760 then down to 1.2640- 1.2570


and the daily frame

Leicester is killing City!

i ll give credit tito, he might right 1.265 1st

Market when open , gbpusd open with +30 pip gap

If you are tracking the GBPUSD this week, consider this technical perspective. The GBUSD market has been in consolidation for quite a while. On the daily time frame, price action is disposed southward within a falling channel (blue). Presently it is in consolidation but the technical structure favours bears.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

gbp in long position now,,,???? eurusd look turning up

great analisys, btw how do you draw these outlined boxes with no color fill?

It is rectangle on mt4 platform, draw rectangle click on it, go into rectangle properties and check off where it says "draw object as backgrounds" if you want to leave the check on, than it will be full filled color, if you want like I have check off draw object. Trade safe.

first we go to the pivot line

Gbp very much capable of dropping now