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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #550,201
  • Edited 10:55pm Sep 25, 2020 10:44pm | Edited 10:55pm
Quoting Moty
it can go either way{image} close up{image}{image}
neither bearish close, nor bullish close.

But i expect price to move up on monday after retrace.

The friday low should not break
Intraday only.
  • #550,202
  • Sep 25, 2020 11:42pm Sep 25, 2020 11:42pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} It's good to buy at support levels Georginson Having said that, I think we might travel a smidge lower next week before a real bounce
I don't still see 1.26 breaking in September. Yes we may break lower in October starting from Thursday next week.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #550,203
  • Sep 26, 2020 1:03am Sep 26, 2020 1:03am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I don't still see 1.26 breaking in September. Yes we may break lower in October starting from Thursday next week.
I don't think it will break lower than 1.26- 1.2650, there is too much monthly support there.
If this month closes below current low of 1.2675, I will reassess.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,204
  • Sep 26, 2020 1:04am Sep 26, 2020 1:04am
in the higher tf is too compusing
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that why it's better to look and the smaller tf
look for the impulse move and continuation
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yes yes yes
  • #550,205
  • Sep 26, 2020 1:09am Sep 26, 2020 1:09am
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yes yes yes
  • #550,206
  • Sep 26, 2020 1:26am Sep 26, 2020 1:26am
Quoting trumps
{quote} I don't think it will break lower than 1.26- 1.2650, there is too much monthly support there. If this month closes below current low of 1.2675, I will reassess.
Failure to break 1.2884/1.2950 is a certain invitation of 1.2480. better to allow a bounce to 1.2850/1.2920 area before going on a sell. So buying from 1.2700 area is still ideal for September only.

Once 1.2624 is attained in October, 1.2480 will be inevitable.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #550,207
  • Sep 26, 2020 3:12am Sep 26, 2020 3:12am
Quoting Moty
{quote} {file}
Thank you Moty,
good luck
  • #550,208
  • Sep 26, 2020 3:50am Sep 26, 2020 3:50am
As its the weekend i closed all positions Friday, so will wait until Monday but the plan is, if the blue swings really are a correction and the second red swing up is a retest then if there is a third red swing down i will take a short, normally i would wait for the pullback but Friday it was too strong a break of the old resistance not to grab some pips.

I am no guru and have not managed to find a crystal ball as of yet and hate predictions as they are often wrong, prefer to be what i call a reactive trader which has given me much success over the years.

So only if by my definition of a swing price breaks down again will i enter a new short position.

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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #550,209
  • Sep 26, 2020 6:05am Sep 26, 2020 6:05am
Quoting pipfarm
As its the weekend i closed all positions Friday, so will wait until Monday but the plan is, if the blue swings really are a correction and the second red swing up is a retest then if there is a third red swing down i will take a short, normally i would wait for the pullback but Friday it was too strong a break of the old resistance not to grab some pips. I am no guru and have not managed to find a crystal ball as of yet and hate predictions as they are often wrong, prefer to be what i call a reactive trader which has given me much success over...
It's pretty clear what needs to be done at this point, any clear breaks of Friday's range is a continuation trade, this is the pivot.
  • #550,210
  • Sep 26, 2020 7:34am Sep 26, 2020 7:34am
gbpaud.
my analysis shows that this pair will pull back south,
I for this expect that next week.
h1
sorry bad english knowledge.
  • #550,211
  • Edited 7:27pm Sep 26, 2020 7:49am | Edited 7:27pm
ok let me give something significantly higher than a weekly to add to the statement - you can't change a monthly path easy - The 3 week which just closed.
Weekly has a free space star off the top, after shaven a bullish push.
3 week has printed bear ,is under a major pivot.It's a 500 pip healthy no buyer candle.

So a monthly represents
Any- actual data from the entire month added together and summed up .
+all the past to date of known fundamental- international and specific currency domestic.{including leaks of information to date}
+all the best guess future fundamental by those with the most information ,including any inside tracks of information.

An hourly represents an hour of the same.
An hourly can be thrown around Vs a monthly which cannot easy with all that weight of every event it carries in its life.
You can't use any low tf experience that anythings possible, thats like an apple and pear comparison.
A single news event can move the monthly like an hourly but it needs to be huge such as Brexit or Covid or government intervention.
If I look at those known stories, to me the risk is to the downside at this point, but there could be something else out there to be revealed.

The monthly range is straight down magic 800 pips opposite to the rise before- highlighting the range environment we live in.
800 is large & will overrun at least without much doubt, even in a range situ.

The conclusion is ,this level won't hold with very high probability medium term ,say 3 week.
there's really no doubt when many times you have some doubt,
on what next.

If the discussion is- uptrend or not ?
pure and simple it's not =proven by price or if you're still not happy=later to be proven by price with high probability.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #550,212
  • Sep 26, 2020 8:57am Sep 26, 2020 8:57am
Quoting pipfarm
As its the weekend i closed all positions Friday, so will wait until Monday but the plan is, if the blue swings really are a correction and the second red swing up is a retest then if there is a third red swing down i will take a short, normally i would wait for the pullback but Friday it was too strong a break of the old resistance not to grab some pips. I am no guru and have not managed to find a crystal ball as of yet and hate predictions as they are often wrong, prefer to be what i call a reactive trader which has given me much success over...
In a world that is always changing (often for the worse) he's always sticking his strategy, no matter what happens around!
Reactive trader you are solid as a rock

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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #550,213
  • Sep 26, 2020 9:30am Sep 26, 2020 9:30am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} In a world that is always changing (often for the worse)
Its the opposite...we live in the easiest times humans ever had, I never understood why people always complain how bad they have it and how much better life was before...it wasn't, it just some kind of illusion some people live in. If people read some history, they would appreciate everything we have today and everything we take for granted.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #550,214
  • Sep 26, 2020 9:57am Sep 26, 2020 9:57am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Its the opposite...we live in the easiest times humans ever had, I never understood why people always complain how bad they have it and how much better life was before...it wasn't, it just some kind of illusion some people live in. If people read some history, they would appreciate everything we have today and everything we take for granted.
It depends where you live.....I see violence for nothing, unemployed people, underpaid or slave youngsters workers, middle clas imploding, middle-aged people pushed out at work, the rich become richer, desperate people increasing every year, politicians with no real care of people.
I prefer a world were wealth is spread to most of the people and not for few. Amazon era and his new slaves, is not my dream...

Anyway, it was only a simple incidentally refer. We are here as traders and not as philosophers, so I don't want argue about it.
So OK, I respect every opinion, yours included, but I hold my vision.
Regards.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #550,215
  • Sep 26, 2020 10:18am Sep 26, 2020 10:18am
Quoting Brixen
I prefer a world were wealth is spread to most of the people and not for few.
World never was like that and never ever will be. People are greedy by nature and they always change when they are in power, maybe its somewhere in our DNA, for survival of our species.

Anyway, in the morning, when you wake up, you don't worry if you will be still alive at night...for most of our history, that was a normal fear. We worry about so much bullshit that the past generations would die laughing if we started telling them of our "problems".
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #550,216
  • Sep 26, 2020 11:33am Sep 26, 2020 11:33am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} World never was like that and never ever will be. People are greedy by nature and they always change when they are in power, maybe its somewhere in our DNA, for survival of our species. Anyway, in the morning, when you wake up, you don't worry if you will be still alive at night...for most of our history, that was a normal fear. We worry about so much bullshit that the past generations would die laughing if we started telling them of our "problems".
1. My 1st post was a salute to a friend here.
2. You took an incidentally refer to current times (4 words) to start and involved me in a philosophic conversation.
3. I wrote : you have your opinion that I respect but I have mine.
4. I guess we are bothering all traders here in this respectable trading thread about our different ideas of the times we live in (and that was not absolutley my initial intentions here)
5. If you wish we can talk about this topic on PM, otherwise to avoid to be ridicolous and out of topic in a trading thread (I mean both, me included) I suggest to stop here!
And everyone with his own respectable ideas.

All the best OnlineAddict.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #550,217
  • Sep 26, 2020 4:27pm Sep 26, 2020 4:27pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} World never was like that and never ever will be. People are greedy by nature and they always change when they are in power, maybe its somewhere in our DNA, for survival of our species. Anyway, in the morning, when you wake up, you don't worry if you will be still alive at night...for most of our history, that was a normal fear. We worry about so much bullshit that the past generations would die laughing if we started telling them of our "problems".
It's an interesting discussion.
US data at least, from what I've read, showed people wages (up until the late 70's I think), rose far more evenly across the board and in line with GDP, as productivity increased.
Since that time, the wealth disparity has widened significantly, to the point where the income of elite has been growing at 300% of GDP I think it was, and the rest at less than productivity growth.
Increasing at same rate as GDP, average income would be well over $100,000, while it is actually about $50, 000.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,218
  • Sep 26, 2020 5:10pm Sep 26, 2020 5:10pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} World never was like that and never ever will be. People are greedy by nature and they always change when they are in power, maybe its somewhere in our DNA, for survival of our species. Anyway, in the morning, when you wake up, you don't worry if you will be still alive at night...for most of our history, that was a normal fear. We worry about so much bullshit that the past generations would die laughing if we started telling them of our "problems".
I agree 100% with this though, times have changed, as has life expectancy from times past.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,219
  • Sep 26, 2020 5:47pm Sep 26, 2020 5:47pm
Quoting Bones
ok let me give something significantly higher than a weekly to add to the statement - you can't change a monthly path easy - The 3 week which just closed. Weekly has a free space star off the top, after shaven a bullish push. 3 week has printed bear ,is under a major pivot.It's a 500 pip healthy no buyer candle. So a monthly represents Any- actual data from the entire month added together and summed up . +all the past to date of known fundamental- international and specific currency domestic.{including leaks of information to date} +all the best...
Hi Bones, this is very good and logical analysis.
While the big picture analysis from 2014 shows a down trend represented by definition of lower highs and lower lows, the more local analysis on the weekly, from march, shows an uptrend.

Yes, it is from weekly, but lets consider a few things to see another's point of view as analysis.
The March drop was huge, 1800 pips in 2 weeks on pandemic panic.
Fed then came to rescue, and we over took the 1.32 high of those 2 weeks.
We also now have a 1000 pip March tail as a result.

During the rise from March, we had (as you would expect after such a big fall), a period of consolidation, before price broke free with aggressive monthly buying, reaching a 1. 3482 high.

Price has since moved back to this consolidation zone and is currently showing hesitation to move lower on the daily TF, as it bounces within the green range.
There is some more support just below also.

News of next week is of the democrats perhaps coming to the table with another $ 2.4 Trillion fiscal package.

Thus, there seems to me , to be a number of things to consider (both technically and fundamentally).

Ignoring this consolidation support zone we are in, is like ignoring a cement wall while doing 110km/h down the free way.

Rest assured Bones, (as I stated in a recent post) if price chooses to ignore this support and in particular, if this next fiscal package is rejected, I/we as traders will react accordingly.
In short, it's all ok mate.

I myself, do not need to plan in advance what I will do by predicting this monthly candle. I will just respond to what plays out, reacting to PA as I see it unfold, and that is all

I do sense, from your repeated posts, you are not happy until we all agree with your analysis. If I'm wrong here, please let me know.
Just bear in mind what happened in August.
Sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong, it happens to each of us.
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,220
  • Edited Sep 27, 2020 7:56am Sep 26, 2020 6:23pm | Edited Sep 27, 2020 7:56am
Hi Trumps,
I have miss judged the monthly momentum myself with the w1 cross that never broke in August .The outlook I had then was retrace ,but the target was still 13.500.
I haven't changed anything on my monthly all year pretty much.
The fact it did make that move was even more bearish by 13500.It was already in super overbought territory.
Proven now by the chart we see today and foreseen by my subsequent detailed posts.
There is an element of government intervention which you talk about that cannot be maintained, that allowed such an unusual move.
This is not an excuse, it's just a fact ,though you seem honed in on that mistake. I realised thats what you referred to before, that makes the high probability outlook presented, potentially wrong, against some weaker ,greener - ideas .
Sooner or later this intervention has to stop, it's one of the reasons the dow will fall off extreme horizontal res & $ will rise off that tl. Risky assets will fall.
Covid problem hasn't gone away, with a lot of government ammo used already.
There's a spill over into Forex by this intervention, imo.Thats just an opinion, I'm following the charts.



It's just typical that you think my purpose is prove I am right .Fact is I am right, only you don't know yet even with heads up and a huge negative monthly right there on your chart.The positive in all this is you're see it in real time, it can be read beforehand.

I do make mistakes and learn every day just like anyone.
I guess I'll come across as the arrogant one in all this. Whats more arrogant than the usual green 2020 member thinking his view has just the same weight as a full and rich history, post every year since 2007 member.Which is how I read your posts.

You think you can change that monthly all month as it drops ,even if it goes lower in that month= is proven wrong already=Last time we spoke was minus 500,
now it's 800...
Ive just gone into even more detail why...only you still don't get it, just then in the last post.
Thats it.

I'm looking to share my knowledge and experience but I'm also looking to learn from others knowledge and experience.Thats what forex factory is to me.



Quoting trumps
{quote} Hi Bones, this is very good and logical analysis. In short, it's all ok mate. I myself, do not need to plan in advance what I will do by predicting this monthly candle. I will just respond to what plays out, reacting to PA as I see it unfold, and that is all I do sense, from your repeated posts, you are not happy until we all agree with your analysis. If I'm wrong here, please let me know. Just bear in mind what happened in August. Sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong, it happens to each of us. {image} {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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