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  • #547,881
  • Sep 12, 2020 7:10am Sep 12, 2020 7:10am
Quoting BitcoinBoff
{quote} If you say 2100, you mean price ? May I ask you to post the same graphs with dates <( I presume?) , at the bottom axis? I want to see if theres any correlation between your graphs and the forces I trade , on long TFs? ( thought is here your COT strategy, and a precision entry on my forces...i can pinpoint Reversals SPOT ON, but waay to much a newbie to act on them...lol)
yes i mean 2100 for the following reasoning :
Usually when there is a gap, it tends to close it (after a long or short time, it doesn't matter) then it goes back to it weekly open
What it did back then, it opened down to 2085, closed its gap 2102, but didn't reach back its weekly open 2085.
So i guess we should reach it back. I may be totally wrong though, so we'll see

Here are the same charts with date

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #547,882
  • Sep 12, 2020 7:11am Sep 12, 2020 7:11am
Quoting Phil_GMT
{quote} Which Trading platform is that?
https://wavebasis.com
I wanted to see if what I said was technically right ,4-5 are done and thats potentially a 1 ,software says thats a 5 end.
but the software says its too early to say that a 1.
I'm talking high confidence it can't go higher in the next 4 week ,so any count I could believe should reflect that from my view.
The triangle idea I thought was wrong because 4 should overlap 1.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,883
  • Edited 11:37am Sep 12, 2020 7:20am | Edited 11:37am
A bit more about how the things will unfold around the Internal markets bill. (See my previous analysis here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13160136.)

Even for Tory MPs, breaking international law is a bit too much. And they realise that consequences may be terrible, as we are effectively saying goodbye to good relationships with EU. We are also breaking Vienna convention in the process, so essentially we will be seen as a rogue state. Politicians and business people will not say it, but will act accordingly; e.g., investment will dry up very quickly, adding to the pressure on pound in the medium-term (it will return in the longer-term, when pound will be cheap enough).

But will the Tory MPs stand in the way? Alas, probably no. They realise dissenting will probably cost them their political career (and funding for their constituency). They only need an excuse to vote with government, and Johnson/Gove will give them this excuse, see for example here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...from-eu-threat.

Still, they may abstain rather than vote against (it's still dissenting, but to a smaller scale). Parliamentary arithmetic is this. Conservatives effective majority is 86. Also, DUP (8 members) may vote with the government, which gives 86+8x2=102. Others will almost surely vote against. So (depending on DUP position) you need 43 to 51 Tories to vote against or 86 to 102 to abstain, or something in between, with the formula Against x 2 + Abstain >= 86 / 102. We will need to read politicians' and political observers' comments to see whether this is realistic. My initial assessment, chances are slim. They are Tories, in the end; as long as they continue to "represent the people", they don't care if they are traitors to these people.

There is a much bigger chance that Lords will reject the bill, or, to be more specific, remove the clauses that constitute the international law breach. In fact, I think Lords rejection is almost certain. But that's not enough for the bill/clauses to die. Under current UK rules, if Lords reject the bill, it goes back to Commons. So the most realistic scenario is ping pong: Commons vote for the bill, Lords remove controversial clauses, Commons add them back in, Lords remove them and so on. If there was no deadline, this could go forever. But there is a deadline, EU ultimatum is to remove the bill until the end of the month. At which point, if government does not remove the bill (which it won't), trade deal becomes a pumpkin.

I won't give advise on how to trade Brexit, but hope you would be able to trade this scenario (or another one, if you come to different conclusions) correctly.
  • #547,884
  • Sep 12, 2020 7:33am Sep 12, 2020 7:33am
Quoting Bones
{quote} https://wavebasis.com I wanted to see if what I said was technically right ,4-5 are done and thats potentially a 1 ,software says thats a 5 end. but the software says its too early to say that a 1. I'm talking high confidence it can't go higher in the next 4 week ,so any count I could believe should reflect that from my view. The triangle idea I thought was wrong because 4 should overlap 1.
Thank you,
I like your wave analysis, I also like wetradewaves channel on youtube

Bullish is correct, I have a short however I realize I am only dreaming of a fast fall to 1.2500.
All Assets NAS100 GLD BTC AUS JPY GBP All Time Return: 18.2%
  • #547,885
  • Edited 11:55am Sep 12, 2020 7:33am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting Headland
W/e analysis cont... Now that many participants here are convinced of a deeper pullback - it's bound to tank lol ! Speaking of that possibility - as said price closed in that prev dly/wkly sw hi zone 2813-2746-2669 - an area as Shabab8b showed has acted as supp/res 6 times on retests since it first formed a long while ago. Within this zone and not incl Monday pivots (as don't know the open yet re calc) ...I see the following; 2813-2749-2669 Prev dly then deeper wkly sw hi (=prev res = pot rbs) zone, and within this: 2778 50% 2074-3482 2776-2762...
pullback of what ? theres no trend beyond the boundaries the sooner people realise this the better , this monthly can only go lower or stay in that range already.
It failed to break and is well below the last, against a long term trend line and major zone.Highly likely bearish print ,it needs different month to go up.
Bearish Outside today, it just fell 500 pips in a week.
You can't judge it on any low tf.
Every step lower this month {numbers lower than today} where people still think bullish for higher {its still trending for higher } actually makes the monthly a stronger bear signal to go lower.
To the major support if candle printed like that at least, with a super challenge to the bulls to change it to neutral at best bullish case from there.
Let's not even go to the clear and present fundamental danger reasoning ,with no easy outcome this month , that lines up with that major falling tl touch.


Brexit Talks Fray, Increasing Chances of Chaotic U.K.-EU Split
The U.K. and the European Union are heading for a split without a new trade deal. Johnson’s government rebuffed an EU request to scrap his plan to re-write the Brexit divorce accord even after the bloc gave him a three-week ultimatum to do so and threatened legal action,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,886
  • Sep 12, 2020 7:35am Sep 12, 2020 7:35am
Quoting Bones
{quote} pullback of what, theres no trend beyond the boundaries the sooner people realise this the better , this monthly can only go lower already it failed to break and is well below the last against a long term trend line and major zone. {image}
It's going to be bound between 1.25-1.40 for a year or two. But there's almost zero probability that it goes much lower than that unless a hard Brexit becomes a reality.

With that said, I'm looking for GBP longs next week.
  • #547,887
  • Edited 8:31am Sep 12, 2020 8:18am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting SCopier
I think this wave pattern (Diagonal expanding) will perform..{image}
In a diagonal wave, you need to have 3-3-3-3-3 structure. So I'm not sure about that. I don't think you can call it a leading diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) at the top. A leading diagonal is wave 1.

Are you using an EW software or indicator?
  • #547,888
  • Sep 12, 2020 8:44am Sep 12, 2020 8:44am
Quoting Bones
{quote} pullback of what ? theres no trend beyond the boundaries the sooner people realise this the better , this monthly can only go lower or stay in that range already. It failed to break and is well below the last, against a long term trend line and major zone.Highly likely bearish print ,it needs different month to go up. Bearish Outside today, it just fell 500 pips in a week. You can't judge it on any low tf. Every step lower this month {numbers lower than today} where people still think bullish for higher {its still trending for higher } actually...

I agree with your take on the present still developing Mthly candle - as being the greater probability, both from a technical and fundamental point of view with all that is known to us to this point. As yet though, in terms of fractal swing PA analysis only 1hr and 4hr are in a downtrend, daily may be developing that way but as yet we have no LH or LL - not even a fractal L yet on that t/f. The Wkly by this measure is still in an uptrend. Anything can happen but a deeper upside pullback after a 700+ pip down move is likely at some point - maybe even from this prev dly/wkly sw hi zone price has closed in and found a current lo of 2762 in. I just trade what I see - the rest is idle speculation - fills in the time between ever repeating episodes of Midsommer Murders ! (Yes I am middle aged, and yes I am sad!)
Trader with an Edge.
  • #547,889
  • Sep 12, 2020 9:14am Sep 12, 2020 9:14am
Quoting Headland
{quote} ever repeating episodes of Midsommer Murders ! (Yes I am middle aged, and yes I am sad!)
It could have been worse, it could have been Morse.
  • #547,890
  • Edited 12:01pm Sep 12, 2020 9:15am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} I agree with your take on the present still developing Mthly candle - as being the greater probability, both from a technical and fundamental point of view with all that is known to us to this point. As yet though, in terms of fractal swing PA analysis only 1hr and 4hr are in a downtrend, daily may be developing that way but as yet we have no LH or LL - not even a fractal L yet on that t/f. The Wkly by this measure is still in an uptrend. Anything can happen but a deeper upside pullback after a 700+ pip down move is likely at some point...
If you think about it what better way to hit that tl than something that looks bullish in a range environment ,
I know it is technically an uptrend lower tf ,
Its only if you look higher you see it's trapped hence the sharp fall .If anything, I would expect the uk-eu rhetoric to be stepped up before any climb down.
It can easily go back to the the very low ,but to stay reasonable in range can turn quick = It should goto the support further than this great pivot we are on.
It's not a guess so long as you're looking high enough TF .
I'm actually quite surprised how many people don't add weight to that tl touch, with forecasts smashing it from there.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,891
  • Sep 12, 2020 10:11am Sep 12, 2020 10:11am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} In a diagonal wave, you need to have 3-3-3-3-3 structure. So I'm not sure about that. I don't think you can call it a leading diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) at the top. A leading diagonal is wave 1. Are you using an EW software or indicator?
Thanks for the replay Shahab8b, I am still learning for EW theory
So EW key is the structure? So far I think the key is fibo level (my bad )

I am trying to build my own EW tool but not finish yet because lack of EW knowledge..
  • #547,892
  • Sep 12, 2020 10:36am Sep 12, 2020 10:36am
Price is still too high...

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #547,893
  • Sep 12, 2020 11:11am Sep 12, 2020 11:11am
Quoting FreakingDon
{quote} Hi
Hello FreakingDon
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #547,894
  • Sep 12, 2020 11:34am Sep 12, 2020 11:34am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I think he can do whatever he likes in this regard, with that majority ,last time parliament stood in the way many lost their job
What about House of Lords, if it passes House of Commons?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #547,895
  • Sep 12, 2020 12:14pm Sep 12, 2020 12:14pm
until and unless 4 hr changes, no long for me.

Currently, daily and 4hr still in short mode.

When 4hr and daily in same direction, the hourly resistance/support pushes the price in the direction of trend of 4hr and daily.

Let us see when 4hr says when london opens on Monday.

I will not make the mistake of trying to pick the bottom or top...as we never know, that is top or bottom.

Trade in the direction of 4 hr and daily or 4 hr is wise thing.
Intraday only.
  • #547,896
  • Edited 3:33pm Sep 12, 2020 1:03pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} If you think about it what better way to hit that tl than something that looks bullish in a range environment , I know it is technically an uptrend lower tf , Its only if you look higher you see it's trapped hence the sharp fall .If anything, I would expect the uk-eu rhetoric to be stepped up before any climb down. It can easily go back to the the very low ,but to stay reasonable in range can turn quick = It should goto the support further than this great pivot we are on. It's not a guess so long as you're looking high enough TF . I'm actually...

Interesting, and thanks for your take on it. Yes it was a classic move off the 'major' mthly desc t/line and structural potential wkly/mthly res zone to 3512 confluence. Although there had been signs of recent strength on the monthly chart to that point (3482) - ie the HL and 3 x consecutive bullish candles, it was still in a ranging condition/downtrend if anything at that 3482 high. I guess some longer term bulls got caught with the severity of the drop off from there.

If you look at the current mthly candle even though it is still not formed until it is actually closed - it is almost certainly going to be a bearish candle even if it does retrace to near it's current high or even slightly above it - it would become a 'hanging man' type candle which is still bearish in and of itself. As for whether this particular candle will go deeper - ie price drop further to the downside through the current dly/wkly price pivot it finds itself in- I don't know whether you can ascertain the probability of this from a candle that is still developing,? particularly as the dly/wkly are still in uptrends as we discussed above. Fundamentally - yes at the moment it looks as though this Uk-eu dispute may lead to further weakening of the £ to say nothing of covid etc.. The chances of this mthly candle closing bullishly which means price would have to exceed to the upside sufficient for it not to close as hanging man type candle, are very small. It's possible it could close bullish, because anything is possible, - but not probable.

Looking at the last closed dly and wkly candles in isolation - the dly suggests an upside pullback, the wkly suggests more downside (perhaps after the pullback ?) are the most probable outcomes.

Looking forward to the new week ahead.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #547,897
  • Sep 12, 2020 1:09pm Sep 12, 2020 1:09pm
Quoting VM.
A bit more about how the things will unfold around the Internal markets bill....
Your fundie/macro analysis is a great addition to this thread. Thanks.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #547,898
  • Edited 7:14pm Sep 12, 2020 7:02pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} What about House of Lords, if it passes House of Commons?
The real question is how strong is Boris resolve to make the law.
Un Elected -silver spoon- House Of Lords will have a go at changing it probably.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,899
  • Sep 12, 2020 7:07pm Sep 12, 2020 7:07pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Interesting, and thanks for your take on it. Yes it was a classic move off the 'major' mthly desc t/line and structural potential wkly/mthly res zone to 3512 confluence. Although there had been signs of recent strength on the monthly chart to that point (3482) - ie the HL and 3 x consecutive bullish candles, it was still in a ranging condition/downtrend if anything at that 3482 high. I guess some longer term bulls got caught with the severity of the drop off from there. If you look at the current mthly candle even though it is still not...
I would refer you to the 4 week chart that already posted yesterday that closed.It can change but only to another bear.
Monthly is like the Titanic to alter course where hourly is a small Dinghy , its come too far off major in a nutshell, to alter this month.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,900
  • Sep 13, 2020 5:29am Sep 13, 2020 5:29am
Quoting navk
until and unless 4 hr changes, no long for me. Currently, daily and 4hr still in short mode. When 4hr and daily in same direction, the hourly resistance/support pushes the price in the direction of trend of 4hr and daily. Let us see when 4hr says when london opens on Monday. I will not make the mistake of trying to pick the bottom or top...as we never know, that is top or bottom. Trade in the direction of 4 hr and daily or 4 hr is wise thing.
You should always trade in the direction of the H4/D1. The problem is people have different definitions of it, and naturally, most people are wrong.

The daily is bullish to me, we haven't reached the final target yet.
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