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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #547,041
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:10am Sep 9, 2020 4:10am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} It's obvious Nessus94 doesn't like us to win at all.
its obvious you already lost
having a 350/400 pips drawdown to reach back your target is not trading, its not even investing, it is gambling

but if you like to gamble its good
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #547,042
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:10am Sep 9, 2020 4:10am
Quoting VM.
{quote} It may of course bounce for 50/100 pips (always a possibility with G/U). For a bigger retrace, the problem is... what good news can there be? The current selloff is due to Brexit row. It can be defused if Johnson rows back and explains that he actually did not mean to renege on treaty. However, I can't see him doing it. Only on Monday he sent an email to Conservative voters saying "I will not back down". As always, he will try to lie his way out, but this time it's really difficult. One thing that he can do is to postpone the publication...
Very good analysis VM.

The thing is everyone is short....
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,043
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:11am Sep 9, 2020 4:11am
Quoting VM.
{quote} I understood it this was as well, 1.28000 vs 1.35000. Does not really matter, imo, 1.28 is on its way.
i agree about 1,28 and below it too
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #547,044
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:13am Sep 9, 2020 4:13am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} Very good analysis VM. The thing is everyone is short....
check again this thread, they all buy
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #547,045
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:22am Sep 9, 2020 4:22am
Quoting VM.
{quote} It may of course bounce for 50/100 pips (always a possibility with G/U). For a bigger retrace, the problem is... what good news can there be? The current selloff is due to Brexit row. It can be defused if Johnson rows back and explains that he actually did not mean to renege on treaty. However, I can't see him doing it. Only on Monday he sent an email to Conservative voters saying "I will not back down". As always, he will try to lie his way out, but this time it's really difficult. One thing that he can do is to postpone the publication...
What bill is due today?
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #547,046
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:28am Sep 9, 2020 4:28am
Quoting VM.
{quote} It may of course bounce for 50/100 pips (always a possibility with G/U). For a bigger retrace, the problem is... what good news can there be? The current selloff is due to Brexit row. It can be defused if Johnson rows back and explains that he actually did not mean to renege on treaty. However, I can't see him doing it. Only on Monday he sent an email to Conservative voters saying "I will not back down". As always, he will try to lie his way out, but this time it's really difficult. One thing that he can do is to postpone the publication...
Update: it looks unlikely that the bill will be delayed. One of the ministers was talking today about why we need to do this. So Boris is likely to double down in PMQ (12 London time) and later at 4pm press conference.
  • #547,047
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:30am Sep 9, 2020 4:30am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} What bill is due today?
First reading (i.e. publication) of Internal market bill that provisions for essential divergence from Withdrawal agreement.
https://commonsbusiness.parliament.u...dTextAnchor003

Note: there will be no vote and even no discussion, so it won't become a law today (and maybe never). However, with majority of 80, it is a statement in itself if government presses on with the bill.
  • #547,048
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:31am Sep 9, 2020 4:31am
Quoting nessus94
{quote} check again this thread, they all buy
For me this is a bit like a sell the news trade.
Annoucement is made - cable drops...cable rallies
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,049
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:35am Sep 9, 2020 4:35am
Dollar really tired. Now its time for cable to rise.
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #547,050
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:37am Sep 9, 2020 4:37am
Quoting Yngwie
Dollar really tired. Now its time for cable to rise.
your saying this because your long, market will range and fall back again so close your buy or get burnt
  • #547,051
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:47am Sep 9, 2020 4:47am
Quoting epzero
{quote} your saying this because your long, market will range and fall back again so close your buy or get burnt
Yup, it still going down.
Yoobbie
  • #547,052
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:51am Sep 9, 2020 4:51am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} For me this is a bit like a sell the news trade. Annoucement is made - cable drops...cable rallies
Quite possible, if we don't have _new_ developments. However, publication of the bill will trigger reaction from EU. In extreme case, EU may put trade negotiations on hold, arguing that UK government is acting in bad faith; it would be a very extreme reaction, but not inconceivable. I understand your caution with selling after 550pips drop (I am cautious myself), but holding a buy after noon London time may be very risky.
  • #547,053
  • Sep 9, 2020 4:56am Sep 9, 2020 4:56am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Quite possible, if we don't have _new_ developments. However, publication of the bill will trigger reaction from EU. In extreme case, EU may put trade negotiations on hold, arguing that UK government is acting in bad faith; it would be a very extreme reaction, but not inconceivable. I understand your caution with selling after 550pips drop (I am cautious myself), but holding a buy after noon London time may be very risky.
Possible bounce to strong confluence at 1.3125.

1- 38.2 Fib retrace of drop.
2- S61 weekly support level.
3- H4 200 SMA.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #547,054
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:01am Sep 9, 2020 5:01am
In as much as there is a vote about 1.28 or 1.35 first, the current price favours buying for the remaining part of this week due to the following reasons...

* Weekly range already 348 pips (1.3267 - 1.2918) which is the second highest weekly range in the last 10 weeks. Just 47 pips shy of maximum being 393 pips

* Monthly range already 563 pips (1.3481 - 1.2918) being the most repeated September range from 2011 to 2019. This current range is just 190 pips lesser than the maximum September Range of 2017 being 753 pips.

* Yearly range correction is usually between 550 to 650 pips and right now we already have correction of 563 pips from yearly high (1.3481 - 1.2918)

The risk reward favours buying the remaining part of this week as 88% of the weekly risk to the downside is already completed.

Peace.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #547,055
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:08am Sep 9, 2020 5:08am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Update: it looks unlikely that the bill will be delayed. One of the ministers was talking today about why we need to do this. So Boris is likely to double down in PMQ (12 London time) and later at 4pm press conference.
and cable will start the retrace back up ?
feel free to invite me to your forum, if you have any
  • #547,056
  • Edited 5:42am Sep 9, 2020 5:11am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Quite possible, if we don't have _new_ developments. However, publication of the bill will trigger reaction from EU. In extreme case, EU may put trade negotiations on hold, arguing that UK government is acting in bad faith; it would be a very extreme reaction, but not inconceivable. I understand your caution with selling after 550pips drop (I am cautious myself), but holding a buy after noon London time may be very risky.
Buy the rumour sell the news is my favourite trade
Perhaps its not the most perfect one - as you say the EU will react, so we will have to see what they say
Even if they are negative and cable dips - all the news will be out.
So will then likely buy.....I know it seems madness but this is way things work

Here are some links on it

https://www.thebalance.com/what-does...%20or%20event.

https://www.davemanuel.com/investor-...sell-the-news/

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...umor-sell-news
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,057
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:12am Sep 9, 2020 5:12am
Quoting Yngwie
Dollar really tired. Now its time for cable to rise.
he have alot of room
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yes yes yes
  • #547,058
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:14am Sep 9, 2020 5:14am
Possible bounce zone 1: current low 1.2918
Possible bounce zone 2: 1.2880

To around 1.3010.

For this week only.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #547,059
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:37am Sep 9, 2020 5:37am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} Buy the rumour sell the news is my favourite trade If I take it will be made after the first reaction Here are some links on it https://www.thebalance.com/what-does...%20or%20event. https://www.davemanuel.com/investor-...sell-the-news/ https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...umor-sell-news
I do know about the buy the rumour, sell the news concept, and it works well in general, I agree.
However, unexpected (real) news are not in that category. E.g., if Johnson says that it is absolutely necessary to rewrite large parts of Withdrawal Agreement or Barnier says that trade talks cannot progress until Internal Markets bill is taken off the table, pound will fall hundreds of pips more. So if you buy G/U, you should be confident that no further escalation will take place today.

Anyway, I think we can agree that the pound is now consolidating, and will look to break either higher or lower. I guess no news is good for GBP now, but I wouldn't bet on no news.
  • #547,060
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:38am Sep 9, 2020 5:38am
sometimes is realy that easy .
just look for the fibo pattern according to the 50 sma band
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yes yes yes
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