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  • #1,182,801
  • Sep 5, 2020 9:55pm Sep 5, 2020 9:55pm
[quote=tradecode;13151249]{quote} When I ask someone a question about something regarding numbers, it is not my intent to engage them in a battle, but instead it is my intent to engage them in a conversation about the numbers.

Hi tradecode, I hope you're doing great.

I can see myself doing similar thing a time ago. I used to start conversations, even about things I didn't understood deeply, just because I liked to debate and show to me and others how bright was my ability to argue; guess what? It mostly used to end in "battles" where I was blindly trying to defend or proof myself rather than my point of view or my idea.


Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to judge you; but the point here is that mr. Techanalyst have a trading style that as he said suits to him and it's been working, so no one is better to judge it than him. Even if he is wrong once or twice, as always we and any system we use can be, in the end of the day he is the one who have to deal with and set it up.


Peace & Love!
Peace & Love!
  • #1,182,802
  • Sep 5, 2020 10:46pm Sep 5, 2020 10:46pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} Do you use leverage shorting it?
I use cash straight up...
Trade what you see, take what the market gives you.
  • #1,182,803
  • Sep 5, 2020 10:53pm Sep 5, 2020 10:53pm
Quoting vule
but if it spikes. You may find me on the street...
i hope that you are not serious..
  • #1,182,804
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:09am Sep 6, 2020 1:09am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} My analysis is bear traps, they will push EUR up again soon. But we will see. Now -11,194 non-commercial traders took off their long positions. That is why there was that move down on a 4hr you can see it. But majority are still in buy positions which is 250,867 and short are 54,120. So according to my analysis EURUSD is still bullish. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Have been long looking for a strategy to trade longer term, I am really appreciated your sharing on the COT strategy.
As per your recommended video by Magic Trader FX, I have worked out the Excel sheet share by them. Interestingly we can see Non-Commercial Long position increase from 150k (37%) on March 2020 to 250K (82%) Sep 2020, and the EURUSD Weekly chart is up since 22-Mar-2020 up to to date, with some correction along the path.

However, based on the table attach, I noticed that most of the time the Commercial new position is opposite with Non-Commercial. I am puzzle why is that the Non-Commercial new position doesn't affect the price movement? Shall it be like "balance off" with Commercial position?

Hope you can share your opinion.

Thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,182,805
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:49am Sep 6, 2020 1:49am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} My analysis is bear traps, they will push EUR up again soon. But we will see. Now -11,194 non-commercial traders took off their long positions. That is why there was that move down on a 4hr you can see it. But majority are still in buy positions which is 250,867 and short are 54,120. So according to my analysis EURUSD is still bullish. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
10000% agreee.. same boat .. patience and watch closely for any pullback.. short high if criteria met.
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  • #1,182,806
  • Sep 6, 2020 4:19am Sep 6, 2020 4:19am
Quoting eRBe
{quote} ... I had it targeted to hit the 1,25 - 1,27 levels in October. I need professional advice, to learn from experienced people like you. How do you know about the downward trend to 1,15? Where can I read the indicator which ones are correct?
I am sorry, eRBe, but who am I? I am not good enough to teach someone. I am too far from a proffesional traders.
How I know about 1,15? I don't know. Just looking at chart and trying to predict. With a little help with Stochastic and BB.
But if you want advice, my advice is that: you have to spend a thousands of hours in front of chart watching, trying a different strategy and blowing a few accounts. And then, in a few years, if you are permanent and don't give up, you will become profitable. I think there is no shortcut ... unfotunatelly.
  • #1,182,807
  • Sep 6, 2020 5:09am Sep 6, 2020 5:09am
Quoting bigiivan
{quote} I am sorry, eRBe, but who am I? I am not good enough to teach someone. I am too far from a proffesional traders. How I know about 1,15? I don't know. Just looking at chart and trying to predict. With a little help with Stochastic and BB. But if you want advice, my advice is that: you have to spend a thousands of hours in front of chart watching, trying a different strategy and blowing a few accounts. And then, in a few years, if you are permanent and don't give up, you will become profitable. I think there is no shortcut ... unfotunatelly....
I know that in whole life don't exist shorter way to wealth, to love, to lucky, .... Every piece of advice is a big step and help for me. My start was from € 800 and after a good year I losing around € 65,000 in 8 minutes. Emotions, lost concentration, same situation like in this friday. Big experience, great trade lessons!!! Now, after 6 years I have a small profit every month ... I am "trader" ☺ Step by step, day by day minimum + € 150. I have for a month my € 3500 and on end of month I send my profit to bank. But I'm still looking for new knowledge, new experience, new view. Where to look and how to read information, source.
  • #1,182,808
  • Sep 6, 2020 5:33am Sep 6, 2020 5:33am
Quoting eRBe
{quote} I know that in whole life don't exist shorter way to wealth, to love, to lucky, .... Every piece of advice is a big step and help for me. My start was from € 800 and after a good year I losing around € 65,000 in 8 minutes. Emotions, lost concentration, same situation like in this friday. Big experience, great trade lessons!!! Now, after 6 years I have a small profit every month ... I am "trader" ☺ Step by step, day by day minimum + € 150. I have for a month my € 3500 and on end of month I send my profit to bank. But I'm still looking...
See? Now I think I have to learn from you.
May say that you have walked a half of way. Your hard part is in past.
  • #1,182,809
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:23am Sep 6, 2020 6:23am
Quoting Winner76
{quote} Have been long looking for a strategy to trade longer term, I am really appreciated your sharing on the COT strategy. As per your recommended video by Magic Trader FX, I have worked out the Excel sheet share by them. Interestingly we can see Non-Commercial Long position increase from 150k (37%) on March 2020 to 250K (82%) Sep 2020, and the EURUSD Weekly chart is up since 22-Mar-2020 up to to date, with some correction along the path. However, based on the table attach, I noticed that most of the time the Commercial new position is opposite...
I've been looking at the COT numbers for years. Even my own trading journal was based on that initially. It has its usefulness but it is far from being the holy grail. Over the years, I've realized simple TA is more rewarding. You can take a look at the EU, AU, and GU charts and draw you own conclusion.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU 96.PNG Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AU COT 96.PNG Size: 40 KB
  • #1,182,810
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:37am Sep 6, 2020 6:37am
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} I have my eye @1.32 US election. If Biden wins, i go for 1,37 by December. If Trump wins, i will go short till 1.25.
Biden is supported by China
  • #1,182,811
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:48am Sep 6, 2020 6:48am
EU, what level will we see next? 1.16 or 1.21?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,182,812
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:55am Sep 6, 2020 6:55am
Quoting OnlineAddict
1900->1550
Still valid. Don't listen to the 1.25, 1.30 or more non-sense, those are the same people who were buying 1.25 few years ago and selling 1.08 earlier this year.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,182,813
  • Sep 6, 2020 7:33am Sep 6, 2020 7:33am
Quoting pgidia
I see EU at 1.15 in near future My long term Trade will be keep adding sell with rise of every 200 pips Let it run in my swap free account till target is achieved Will continue with day to day trading of scalping as usual
Anyone can guide me if this strategy by me is wrong ??
Is it gamble or good investment ?
Positive and Negative feedback is welcome
PaRaM
  • #1,182,814
  • Sep 6, 2020 7:40am Sep 6, 2020 7:40am
Quoting pgidia
{quote} Anyone can guide me if this strategy by me is wrong ?? Is it gamble or good investment ? Positive and Negative feedback is welcome
die another day, live for the moment ; who has seen tomorrow
feel free to invite me to your forum, if you have any
  • #1,182,815
  • Edited 8:58am Sep 6, 2020 8:38am | Edited 8:58am
Quoting vule
I am focus on Tesla this week. I plan to short Tesla. So if tesla drops.. you know Ill be on this island...

but if it spikes. You may find me on the street... and all I ask for is some food or some pips.

The magnitude of losses short-sellers have endured is “just absurd,” he says, compared to bets against other companies, with Tesla “by far the longest unprofitable short I’ve ever seen.”

https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...I-ve-Ever-Seen
  • #1,182,816
  • Sep 6, 2020 9:51am Sep 6, 2020 9:51am
Quoting VuLe
I am focus on Tesla this week. I plan to short Tesla. So if tesla drops.. you know Ill be on this island... but if it spikes. You may find me on the street... and all I ask for is some food or some pips. {image} {image}
It looks like Northern Sentinel island
  • #1,182,817
  • Sep 6, 2020 10:27am Sep 6, 2020 10:27am
Quoting pgidia
{quote} Anyone can guide me if this strategy by me is wrong ?? Is it gamble or good investment ? Positive and Negative feedback is welcome
Your question of, "is it gamble or good investment?" Is what I see wrong. If it happens that you win, you see it as investment. If it happens that you lose, you say its gamble. Change that kind of mentality buddy.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,182,818
  • Sep 6, 2020 10:40am Sep 6, 2020 10:40am
Still holding above every possible channel. Trade what you 'see'

As far as I am concerned, I will cheer for bears once I see 1.170-1.1650 broken clearly on the Daily and above time frames.. until then, I stick with the Bulls. Doesn't mean I won't be scalping shorts, I will of course, like I did from top to bottom last Friday.. I am just saying the trend remains Bullish and no sign of bears/ reversal yet. Again, talking about long term positioning here.. not scalping.
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Seek, because knowledge is a boundary.. but ignorance is boundless- SJV
  • #1,182,819
  • Sep 6, 2020 10:51am Sep 6, 2020 10:51am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I've been looking at the COT numbers for years. Even my own trading journal was based on that initially. It has its usefulness but it is far from being the holy grail. Over the years, I've realized simple TA is more rewarding. You can take a look at the EU, AU, and GU charts and draw you own conclusion. {image} {image} {image}
Beautiful. Looking at COT reports combined with technical analysis, solid as rock. Especially on daily, weekly and monthly chart trading.
  • #1,182,820
  • Sep 6, 2020 12:33pm Sep 6, 2020 12:33pm
It's like inside oven in my hood.. 111°F
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
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