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  • #1,182,781
  • Edited 2:27pm Sep 5, 2020 2:14pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting Kendos
Hello Traders .... I'm a beginner and I need you guys help .... Anyone wanna help?? Please.... Thanks in advance.
Some costly lessons that i learnt from my experience (and past failures) are:

1. Do not trade with Fear.

2. Do not be Greedy.

No matter what system is used, if we trade with greed and fear, it is more than likely that it will result in failure in the long term.

3. When looking around for a system that works, it is better to look for price action based systems that do not use lagging indicators. So far, support / resistance,
supply / demand, trend lines, candlestick patterns, along with some other filters are working fine for me. I would avoid trading on lower tiimeframes which have more noise. I check the price action on higher timeframes (H4, D1, W1) and usually trade on H1/M30 but not any lower.

4. Just because a system works for some traders does not mean it will work for everyone. It is very important to develop the right mindset and find a system that works for oneself.

5. Be aware of the fake moves that are done by Market Makers / Smart Money and avoid falling into those traps. Identify the foot prints of the Market Makers / Smart
Money and try to trade in their foot prints. Also be aware of some of the tricks played by some brokers in terms of stop hunting and such.

6. Money management is extremely important for successful trading in the long run.

7. Have realistic expectations regarding the results. Example: Do not expect to become rich overnight - This along with greed and fear will most definitely blow the
accounts.

8. Avoid revenge trading.

I hope the above stated would be of some help to start with.
  • #1,182,782
  • Sep 5, 2020 2:32pm Sep 5, 2020 2:32pm
Anyone know why the EUR is tanking all of a sudden? I had it targeted to hit the 1.25-1.27 levels in October but it seems like its taking a turn the last 3 days. I am wondering if this a due to seasonal cycles
  • #1,182,783
  • Edited 4:07pm Sep 5, 2020 2:42pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting spatel522
Anyone know why the EUR is tanking all of a sudden? I had it targeted to hit the 1.25-1.27 levels in October but it seems like its taking a turn the last 3 days. I am wondering if this a due to seasonal cycles
My analysis is bear traps, they will push EUR up again soon. But we will see. Now -11,194 non-commercial traders took off their long positions. That is why there was that move down on a 4hr you can see it. But majority are still in buy positions which is 250,867 and short are 54,120. So according to my analysis EURUSD is still bullish.
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  • #1,182,784
  • Sep 5, 2020 3:22pm Sep 5, 2020 3:22pm
@Techanalyst thanks for the confirmation, I think its going long as well. I also did not see the EUR close below the 8/27, 9/2, & 9/3 lows, its making new low but seems to pushing back up indicating to me that hits still in a bullish position.

Also what software do you use to do you analysis? I have been using tradinview to do my analysis and Oanda to trade but i am not liking this setup.
  • #1,182,785
  • Sep 5, 2020 3:49pm Sep 5, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting OhComeOn
{quote} Been drinking today, but am going to respond on this in a very polite way, Tech utilizes a different strategy than normal technical analysis. If you look at his posts over a year, one can see his strategy. He follows the COT reports and utilizes Supply and Demand areas which provides a good path to follow. When COT reverses, so does he. It would be the same for technical analysis when we see MA's reverse on a higher time frame. We all have our strategies, some more than one. Personally, I like his analysis and it allows me to gain further...
Dr OhComeOn, PhD, Psychology.
Wow, such response professionally delivered needs to be paid. Salute!
P.S: i am still working on with your strategy you PM to me. Will run it in this week to understand. Will ask questions if I have.Thanks
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,182,786
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:02pm Sep 5, 2020 4:02pm
Last post until I sober up. What to look for in Uptrend with Supply & Demand using this 4H chart. You can do the same thing on lower time frames. Understand if 4H is in uptrend and you see the MA's flip on 1H to downtrend, it is the wave to bring 4H back to MA's. This chart should give you some idea where to take profit in uptrend and re-enter. Do the opposite of course in a downtrend. Going now before my posts become incoherent. Let me know if you need any help Dr Bull Bear, probably out for a day or 2.

Remember everyone, look at yourself Not as a trader, but as a Trade Manager. We manage trades.

Laterzzzzz
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"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,182,787
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:43pm Sep 5, 2020 4:43pm
Attached Image


the above forexfactory numbers are similar to the futures numbers that mr techanalyst uses, but they represent a different group of traders.

the majority of forexfactory traders are now short, while the cot figures show large traders are majority long.

i suspect that buying and selling does not work the same way with currencies as it does with bananas and potatoes and real estate.

i suspect that when the majority of the market is long, the price does not go up but instead it goes DOWN.

when the majority of traders are in LONG positions, the central banking systems will pull the price down, effectively stealing your money.

the banks always win, we sometimes win.

  • #1,182,788
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:46pm Sep 5, 2020 4:46pm
Quoting tradecode
{image} the above forexfactory numbers are similar to the futures numbers that mr techanalyst uses, but they represent a different group of traders. the majority of forexfactory traders are now short, while the cot figures show large traders are majority long. i suspect that buying and selling does not work the same way with currencies as it does with bananas and potatoes and real estate. i suspect that when the majority of the market is long, the price does not go up but instead it goes DOWN. when the majority of traders are in LONG positions,...
Those are numbers from FF. That's it. You could probably consider it, but I wouldn't. They are not the same as COT reports. COT reports are from banks, institutions, hedge funds. The big corporations with trillions of dollars to trade. So the FF numbers are just well FF numbers. I would not be using that ever in analysis.

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...able/index.htm

There is historical view of COT and take a look at the monthly EURUSD, you will understand why those numbers matter.
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  • #1,182,789
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:48pm Sep 5, 2020 4:48pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Those are numbers from FF. That's it. You could probably consider it, but I wouldn't. They are not the same as COT reports. COT reports are from banks, institutions, hedge funds. The big corporations with trillions of dollars to trade. So the FF numbers are just well FF numbers. I would not be using that ever in analysis.
keep in mind that those large traders might be wrong.

the majority is not always right.

  • #1,182,790
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:49pm Sep 5, 2020 4:49pm
@tradecode I am pretty sure its highly illegal for banks to go the opposite direction of the market to make money. The market moves on consumer sentiment as a whole, i doubt any agency or body of government can manipulate the system in the long run like that.
  • #1,182,791
  • Sep 5, 2020 5:12pm Sep 5, 2020 5:12pm
Quoting tradecode
{quote} keep in mind that those large traders might be wrong. the majority is not always right.
I would disagree. Banks, institutions, are barely wrong and even sometimes if they are, they pull themselves out. Those numbers are accurate. I paste you everything. Have a look youll understand.
  • #1,182,792
  • Sep 5, 2020 5:24pm Sep 5, 2020 5:24pm
Quoting OhComeOn
Last post until I sober up. What to look for in Uptrend with Supply & Demand using this 4H chart. You can do the same thing on lower time frames. Understand if 4H is in uptrend and you see the MA's flip on 1H to downtrend, it is the wave to bring 4H back to MA's. This chart should give you some idea where to take profit in uptrend and re-enter. Do the opposite of course in a downtrend. Going now before my posts become incoherent. Let me know if you need any help Dr Bull Bear, probably out for a day or 2. Remember everyone, look at yourself Not as...

YEAH YEAH I know Bull Bear but this is the last one, on 4H chart draw a vertical red line at top where TP was marked, and draw a blue vertical line where I said look for longs when price tagged the blue highlighted area. Now switch to 30M chart and watch the 30M chart MA's flip. This will show you the dip. If you highlighted the areas I showed on the 4H, you will see the dips forming to go long. We want to enter at the lower lows on 30M after the flip to build longs. Trade away from the MA's charts. Yes I still use MACD, but you can do this with just MA's and Supply/Demand areas and EASILY see the dips/rally's. To many words to fix with spell check. This time I really am out. Final note, this is what Tech has been showing us for a long time on higher time frames. Trading is easy, by doing this you will no longer get stuck going long at the high or shorting at the bottoms. This should show people how price action works.
MA's:
50 EMA
100 EMA
240 LWMA

If anybody has any questions, PM me and I will respond Monday or Tuesday. Serious drinking has begun, and it takes to long to type a coherent message. Yesssss, I think there are many who remember that gibberish I posted a few weeks ago under the influence. LOL This is close to what I was trying to communicate, could not make out the rest of my notes. All I remember is they made perfect sense at the time. Remember, trading FOREX is super easy, do not make it hard. Make a trade plan, manage your trades, do not panic. If you screw up, see the price action and know where it will come back to so you can get out with minimum loss. If PA crushes 240 LWMA, get ready for a MA cross. FINAL POST!

Meat is done, wife has to make another beer run. When she comes back, I am positive she won't allow any communication devices due to my drinking. I love her for that. I am hungry.
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,182,793
  • Sep 5, 2020 5:45pm Sep 5, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting bigiivan
{quote} Maybe because 1,15 is going to happened sooner.
... I had it targeted to hit the 1,25 - 1,27 levels in October. I need professional advice, to learn from experienced people like you. How do you know about the downward trend to 1,15? Where can I read the indicator which ones are correct?
  • #1,182,794
  • Sep 5, 2020 7:32pm Sep 5, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting tradecode
{quote} again, i really dont want to debate this all day, but when someone is throwing pennies around it is not nearly as interesting as when someone is betting $100/pip or $1k/pip or $10k/pip.
Yes, your observation is a valid point.

Value of a pip does matter. In case of > $200 per pip trade size (> $500 per pip for majors), it becomes a different ball game.

There will be slippages in filling an order depending on the liquidity and time of the market. Most retail brokers have Max. trade size of $1000 per pip for majors and much less for other pairs. Some FX brokers provide their own DoM (Depth of Market) feed. You can have a look at it.

In addition to analysing charts and/or fundamentals, trading psychology plays a much bigger role when trading > $100 per pip trade size. Mastering it will define whether a trader stays at or grow to [4] or 5 or 6 or 7 & beyond figure trading account.

Some veteran trader said: The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.
  • #1,182,795
  • Sep 5, 2020 7:36pm Sep 5, 2020 7:36pm
Quoting tradecode
{quote} trading IS gambling.
Do you reckon, poker is Gambling?

Watch this.. Time Stamp: 0.43 to 0:56.

Inserted Video


You may get a book called "Zen and Art of Poker" by Larry W, replace the term "Poker" with "Trading" and read. You will realise that similar to Trading, even Poker is not Gambling for the professional poker players. I bet, you can improve your Trading by reading that book!
  • #1,182,796
  • Sep 5, 2020 7:36pm Sep 5, 2020 7:36pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I would disagree. Banks, institutions, are barely wrong and even sometimes if they are, they pull themselves out. Those numbers are accurate. I paste you everything. Have a look youll understand.
Just in case, if you have not come across, you can find some FX positions of some Banks here.

https://www.efxdata.com
  • #1,182,797
  • Sep 5, 2020 9:31pm Sep 5, 2020 9:31pm
I am focus on Tesla this week. I plan to short Tesla. So if tesla drops.. you know Ill be on this island...

but if it spikes. You may find me on the street... and all I ask for is some food or some pips.
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Trade what you see, take what the market gives you.
  • #1,182,798
  • Sep 5, 2020 9:54pm Sep 5, 2020 9:54pm
Quoting spatel522
Anyone know why the EUR is tanking all of a sudden? I had it targeted to hit the 1.25-1.27 levels in October but it seems like its taking a turn the last 3 days. I am wondering if this a due to seasonal cycles
It will hit 1.25 in October don't worry

I am targeting 1.30
  • #1,182,799
  • Sep 5, 2020 10:23pm Sep 5, 2020 10:23pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} It will hit 1.25 in October don't worry I am targeting 1.30
I have my eye @1.32 US election. If Biden wins, i go for 1,37 by December. If Trump wins, i will go short till 1.25.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,182,800
  • Sep 5, 2020 10:24pm Sep 5, 2020 10:24pm
Quoting VuLe
I am focus on Tesla this week. I plan to short Tesla. So if tesla drops.. you know Ill be on this island... but if it spikes. You may find me on the street... and all I ask for is some food or some pips. {image} {image}
Do you use leverage shorting it?
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
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