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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #546,501
  • Sep 5, 2020 7:09am Sep 5, 2020 7:09am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I think double top abc is bullish continuation ? {image}
Bones, I'm thinking like this. The abc correction can be wave 4 of the higher degree (red), it may go below 1.30 but it should not overlap with wave 1 (1.28) per guideline. Eventually it will take out 1.35 top and go higher imo.
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  • #546,502
  • Sep 5, 2020 7:58am Sep 5, 2020 7:58am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Wavegarrick, great trading as always. I found it interesting that you were buying against your trend following system. I assume it was because of the weekly R you mentioned before and 1.32 round number. I did a similar trade but with different reasons (posted in my thread as always). It's interesting we reached the same conclusion. Have a nice weekend! {image}
Hi Shahab,

By the way, I have become a great fan of your trading style and you nail it with pinpoint accuracy which may be rubbing off on me
I don't take counter-trend trades often, but when price reaches a round number especially if the greater trend is up I take a shot at it knowing that round numbers could act as a bounce point and more so 1.32 which has been significant in the past. I also have my future weekly pivot at 1.33113 (Green Highlight) and price does tend to retest these. The idea was to lock it in quickly but I never expected it to retrace all the way to pre NFP levels. A bit of luck on my side I guess. Anyway, my short term trend still shows down but this could change in the new week. We shall see.

You too have a nice weekend.
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #546,503
  • Sep 5, 2020 9:00am Sep 5, 2020 9:00am
Hey guys
Hope u having a good weekend
I let here M15 overall view of the week and what i think..
Dont follow me im nuts
Expecting price to go up this next week will wait some retrace to 1.32550 or 1.32410 to buy...if those numbers get hard broken well , we sell
Rest of good day all.
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  • #546,504
  • Edited 10:36am Sep 5, 2020 10:15am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Bones, I'm thinking like this. The abc correction can be wave 4 of the higher degree (red), it may go below 1.30 but it should not overlap with wave 1 (1.28) per guideline. Eventually it will take out 1.35 top and go higher imo. {image}
ok, wave 4 similar to 2 then 5 last leg
condition -not to break last monthly low ,poss channel outlook that meets the idea with bearish weekly in place.
This outlook still leaves multi year range in place.
5 down after imo ,because even by youre calculations ,5 is right on that major down line on yearly + very top of overall range.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #546,505
  • Sep 5, 2020 11:19am Sep 5, 2020 11:19am
September expected Range is 500 - 650 pips...

So far 1.3481 - 1.3174 being 307 pips. Possible 200 - 350 pips more to complete expected September Range.

Should the high of 1.3481 stay unbroken, then 1.2980/1.2870 is imminent in days ahead before final bounce to retest 1.3481 high which is expected to break at second time of asking to 1.3680 area.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #546,506
  • Sep 5, 2020 1:40pm Sep 5, 2020 1:40pm
It's me or the market broke the (R line) in the monthly chart because weekly is a little bit off but they say the higher better.

MTF
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WTF
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* And it also looks like PA was correcting on the Monthly chart

But who knows??
BARAK
  • #546,507
  • Sep 5, 2020 1:52pm Sep 5, 2020 1:52pm
Quoting MarketPatrol
It's me or the market broke the (R line) in the monthly chart because weekly is a little bit off but they say the higher better. MTF {image} WTF {image} * And it also looks like PA was correcting on the Monthly chart But who knows??
i agree monthly broke a resistance level
It reacted downward on the weekly.

now we just have to see if the reaction turns back up or continues down.

Bit of a guess but my 2 cents says:
- Gap Down at the open on H1
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #546,508
  • Edited Sep 6, 2020 8:20am Sep 5, 2020 1:54pm | Edited Sep 6, 2020 8:20am
Quoting Georginson
September expected Range is 500 - 650 pips... So far 1.3481 - 1.3174 being 307 pips. Possible 200 - 350 pips more to complete expected September Range. Should the high of 1.3481 stay unbroken, then 1.2980/1.2870 is imminent in days ahead before final bounce to retest 1.3481 high which is expected to break at second time of asking to 1.3680 area.
W/e analysis cont...

... yes, the 4mth amr is 577pips with that 306-7pips already travelled, as you say above. The repeating pattern of regular bearish divergence I have on my osc's/settings at the 3482 last HH on the daily t/f has on the last 10 occasions on this daily t/f always resulted in at least 4 bearish or in the case of the same repeating but opposite pattern of regular bullish divergence - 4 bullish candles (both not necessarily consecutively) before a decisive turn back the other way. Make of this what you will.

Speaking of divergence between osc's and price there is a repeating pattern of hidden bearish divergence on 30min at the pullback hi of 3293 and this may develop on the 1hr should price progress higher which should be valid so long as 3219 holds. If acting on this t/f as a trigger you would have to weigh it up against the fact that a. Only 4hr above it is in a current pa downtrend (ie daily and weekly remain in pa uptrends) and b. There is opposing 4hr bullish hidden div at the 3175 lo as discussed in my prev post, and although this comes at a potential HL on the daily (into whose uptrend a 4hr hidden div may indicate an entry after a pullback) it comes strictly speaking at the 3rd fractal LL on 4hr - so that t/f has displayed signs of weakness and is in a classic pa downtrend although the ema's have not caught up with it (yet?) - This is not optimum for a new daily trend hi above 3482 to result off this set-up but this doesn't mean that it won't happen. Ie it's possible but not the most probable outcome based on historical precedent over a large sample size, of this set-up.

The 4hr chart below shows the current descending channel on that t/f off that 3482 - the week's just closed high.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #546,509
  • Edited 2:48pm Sep 5, 2020 2:07pm | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting MarketPatrol
It's me or the market broke the (R line) in the monthly chart because weekly is a little bit off but they say the higher better. MTF {image} WTF {image} * And it also looks like PA was correcting on the Monthly chart But who knows??
Looks to me like weekly is forming part of a correction only on a strong monthly bull trend.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #546,510
  • Sep 5, 2020 2:13pm Sep 5, 2020 2:13pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} Looks to me like weekly is a correction only on a strong monthly bull trend.
Can you also see a H&S on Monthly or am just drunk
BARAK
  • #546,511
  • Sep 5, 2020 2:49pm Sep 5, 2020 2:49pm
Quoting MarketPatrol
{quote} Can you also see a H&S on Monthly or am just drunk
Not sure, not at my chart right now.
Maybe a W
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #546,512
  • Sep 5, 2020 3:46pm Sep 5, 2020 3:46pm
Anyone know why the GBP is tanking all of a sudden? I had it targeted to hit the 1.40-1.42 levels by October but it seems like its taking a turn the last 3 days. I am wondering if this a due to seasonal cycles?
  • #546,513
  • Sep 5, 2020 3:55pm Sep 5, 2020 3:55pm
Quoting spatel522
Anyone know why the GBP is tanking all of a sudden? I had it targeted to hit the 1.40-1.42 levels by October but it seems like its taking a turn the last 3 days. I am wondering if this a due to seasonal cycles?
With no significant retrace since June, it looks to me like we are coming off resistance for another correction.
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #546,514
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:56pm Sep 5, 2020 4:56pm
Nice traders in this thread
For short term H4 there is wolf waves set up.
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  • #546,515
  • Sep 5, 2020 4:56pm Sep 5, 2020 4:56pm
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} Hey Kampion, we've all been there and sure I'll be there many more times 43 dollar loss is nothing to be stressed about, Seriously How about when you move up to trading 5-6 lots and the spread costs 40 bucks Over here in Australia it was 2.30 am too late so closed some losing positions only to see Cable rise another 60 pips after I woke up. Pretty much did myself out of $800. Thing is as you can see by weekly stat already up heaps so no big deal
Kudos to you mate. Keep up the good work.
You can do it!
  • #546,516
  • Sep 5, 2020 6:41pm Sep 5, 2020 6:41pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} With no significant retrace since June, it looks to me like we are coming off resistance for another correction. {image}
Im not sure I agree because even though there have been new daily lows made it’s not closed below a previous low. Also on a weekly level it’s making new highs but not new lows yet.

what do you think?
  • #546,517
  • Sep 5, 2020 6:46pm Sep 5, 2020 6:46pm
Quoting spatel522
{quote} Im not sure I agree because even though there have been new daily lows made it’s not closed below a previous low. Also on a weekly level it’s making new highs but not new lows yet. what do you think?
I am bullish also and agree 100% with your analysis.

In reply to your question as to why GBP tanked, all I said is we are making a correction off resistance, which is what is happening.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #546,518
  • Sep 5, 2020 6:53pm Sep 5, 2020 6:53pm
North or South?? just review A past, past is over. just say North or South? 2 strong for Ya,. just let it all go and enjoy the weekend
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  • #546,519
  • Sep 5, 2020 6:55pm Sep 5, 2020 6:55pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} I am bullish also and agree 100% with your analysis. In reply to your question as to why GBP tanked, all I said is we are making a correction off resistance, which is what is happening.

ahhh okay thank you for clarifying. I’m hardly 8 months in but am up $4K. I’m taking it slow and learning but trying not to be overt aggressive.
  • #546,520
  • Edited 7:46pm Sep 5, 2020 7:21pm | Edited 7:46pm
make newbie traders like me ... look for the ebook below (sorry I did not make the ad, but indeed the ebook is very well studied) and do as your best studi by self training ... because this is an old way of analysis and is still updated today ... don't look for holy grail indicators or trading systems ... but understand how SM builds and managing trends, including also about price manipulation, then all indicators and trading systems will be easy to understand or in the end you will not need any other indicator than volume on your chart ... understanding of the market (tape reading) can not be obtained instantly and easily, therefore it is necessary to do maximum learning to oneself about the market ...so it takes hard work in learning, with an unyielding spirit

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