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Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

Ah - simple mistakes. Thanks v much jlongo.

Interesting, it's late my time but I had a quick scan using the indicator on the SPX. I haven't read most of the thread and skimmed through posts, but the indi does seem to show that mean reverting to the daily open occurs quite often with extreme moves.

I have been buying bullish dips and fading moves for some time anyhow, but it's v interesting to see how well price reacts to the various levels on the indi. Interesting to see whether this can be plotted with more accuracy. Further study required...

You could take this up a level to develop a more holistic bias, CeeSo.
Quoting DrDave
{quote} CeeSo has actually plotted some DATA and gave an explanation about associated probabilities. I do not see that you presented any data at all about market movements between pivots or fibs. In fact, the closest you came to data is "observation". So, if you can present data or a plot of the data of market movement between pivots or fibs similar to what CeeSo presented, then we can make a comparative analysis. Until then, you have offered nothing but speculation that PERHAPS there is no difference.
I thought I already ignored this guy but clearly he re-emerged. Don't feed the trolls. I ignored him.

I have said several times already The powers that be in this business want to keep you chasing rainbows and lollipops. If any of that typical retail crap worked 95% of us would not be failing.
Quoting neosqualls
Ceeso, i am not asking you to feed me, but, i understand you use percentage levels as a part of money management to take profit and stop loss? am i correct? Do you use the level for placing your entry point ? For me when i talk about money management i consider entry point, exit point, trade sizing etc ... as money management. Attached is a small EA i made trading using the levels you show us, this is 1/1 ratio, am i on a correct path ? Thanks {image}

I do use the levels for entry points but not as often as you may think. IF the market has already had a big move past the .5% I will only very occasionally go with that trend and I will fade the level occasionally but only if I see that it is set up to be a rotational day.

Congrats on the first start.
Quoting joyny
If Renaissance Technologies somehow managed to survive 30 years with average 60% yearly profits (before taxes) by using quantitative analysis and algos then out of "randomness" it is still possible to get out something good.
I'm by no means disagreeing with your premise, but from the very little we know about their strategies we do know the bulk of it is highly leveraged statistical arbitrage. Not trying to guess price direction. They also crafted some very clever options with Deutsche Bank that basically insure them if their strategy ever fails and they have had to exercise these options in the past.
In this market I see too many ways for us to lose, the ways that we win are infrequent, sometimes right and sometimes wrong. Really making long-term profits is something that 95% has not found yet.
Quoting mesiforex
In this market I see too many ways for us to lose, the ways that we win are infrequent, sometimes right and sometimes wrong. Really making long-term profits is something that 95% has not found yet.
If you haven't found it yet - don't make a general statement out of this. There are LOTS of traders that make their living out of trading.

Some found their niche in day trading(intraday), some in scalping some in swing trading.
Most traders i know that are doing really really good are those very well capitalized and trading of Daily/Weekly charts.

Goodluck!
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
Hello Ceeso:

thank you for this thread and putting trading psychology and STATS into perspective. Made a BIG difference.

Plz continue to write about your experience. Lots of people here are benefitting - silent readers.

regards
leacher
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
The GBPUSD is testing the 1% line and I think this is one of those cases where I will short it but for a swing trade Short 1.32363

Stop loss is 34 pips higher target is 100 pips lower
I jumped the gun a little bit on this trade before my Algo signaled so I will admit a little dopamine rush happened

Stops are now break even plus commissions
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I readjusted my stops to above the Highs of the day this is a swing trade and it is worth holding on to. It was looking like it might be a day trade for awhile there
Quoting CeeSo
I jumped the gun a little bit on this trade before my Algo signaled so I will admit a little dopamine rush happened Stops are now break even plus commissions {image}

demo trade or live
can't see anything
Quoting kette
{quote} demo trade or live can't see anything
This is an FTMO challenge trade stops are b/e now it still may work
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Quoting CeeSo
{quote} This is an FTMO challenge trade stops are b/e now it still may work {image}

https://ftmo.com/de/#objectives


thank you, that all says good luck to me and tight stops
EUR/GBP heading lower forcing GBPUSD higher - it will drop tomorrow as eur/gbp will bounce up filling the gap above.
I was also caught shorting the pound - if I had looked at eur/gbp i should of taken the 18 points.
eur/dollar
GBP/dollar stay pretty well together - but always look at eurgbp for weakness or strength.
difficult day trading.
Quoting Londonpip60
EUR/GBP heading lower forcing GBPUSD higher - it will drop tomorrow as eur/gbp will bounce up filling the gap above. I was also caught shorting the pound - if I had looked at eur/gbp i should of taken the 18 points. eur/dollar GBP/dollar stay pretty well together - but always look at eurgbp for weakness or strength. difficult day trading.
No harm no foul. Just the one break-even trade for me today. USD was too strong by the NYSE open for me to fade any level but a super extreme. In hindsight, the trend trades worked brilliantly but I sat on my hands most of the day. I agree it was a really difficult day because the moves on the NYSE open were so fast when they withdrew all the liquidity. That has been the story a lot lately. Very quick moves when the market does move and then a lot of randomnesses.

There are also still a lot of trapped longs in the USD I am not so sure tomorrow will be such a strong day for the USD but either way I try not to predict too much what tomorrow will do but rather like to see what the London Boys have done first and then plan my day around NY.
Quoting CeeSo
I jumped the gun a little bit on this trade before my Algo signaled so I will admit a little dopamine rush happened Stops are now break even plus commissions {image}
Hi Ceeso,
Perhaps the Dopamine rush will be a bit less if you lock your trades in and walk away like it never happened, Trust me, it works for me. My stress is the point of entry and I lock my trades in shortly thereafter like it never happened. I sleep well, I am active and my life goes on, I am up almost 8000 pips in your example of Gu.
Cheers
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Trade to trade another day
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Congratulations on having the guts to accept and post your failures, it takes a lot for a trader to admit he was wrong and he lost, I know from experience . I lost $5.000 about 7 years ago of my money and also the $15.000 profits i built up in 6 months, because one night on a gold move, when Bernanke "took my money" in one of his speeches . Since then I traded very little on live accounts and tested and tried to perfect my strategy and just 1 month ago started again with a considerable amount. However I still have a problem...
Hi, your trading strat of dg majors, analysis on W and M, and executing entries when u see a trend is good.
I am currently learning on those who r there and who has been there..
On what you said on the 15k on Bernanke. R you able to kindly advise me... if this was due to compounded trades .. and did the gold change trend suddenly?

Thank you very much beforehand.
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Ceeso, Perhaps the Dopamine rush will be a bit less if you lock your trades in and walk away like it never happened, Trust me, it works for me. My stress is the point of entry and I lock my trades in shortly thereafter like it never happened. I sleep well, I am active and my life goes on, I am up almost 8000 pips in your example of Gu. Cheers {image}
Very Nice Congrats!

Yes, you are 100% right as you can see my original stop level for yesterday's GBPUSD short was perfect and the trade worked beautifully.

I closed the trade because

1. It had a large move lower and then retraced very hard. I think this did cause a dopamine rush
2. FTMO spreads go crazy at 5pm est and I have already been stopped out of another trade with the crazy wide spreads at the market close. This definitely was on my mind and influenced my decision.
3. I posted the trade in this room as a live trade and I do believe that extra added pressure of my EGO was a factor. Yes I have an ego lol.

I am actually building my new algo around hourly charts to try and avoid the noise.
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Many of you have asked about how to build your own spreadsheets for frequency distributions.

I was given a customized spreadsheet from my mentor that I can not share but it is pretty easy to build one on your own.

I pull the historical data from this site for free Follow the 3 easy steps to get the data
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Quoting CeeSo
Many of you have asked about how to build your own spreadsheets for frequency distributions. I was given a customized spreadsheet from my mentor that I can not share but it is pretty easy to build one on your own. I pull the historical data from this site for free Follow the 3 easy steps to get the data {image}
Thank you CeeSo,
all the best.
Make your own rules and stick to it.
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