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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #621
  • Aug 16, 2020 6:01am Aug 16, 2020 6:01am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} PROPABLY ....

well Yes and that's a high probability .

I agree with the OP on his 55%.



Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I wish I had a winning rate of 80% lol I dont know where you got that idea from but if I was winning 80% of my trades I would own Fiji. 55% is all you need to make a very good living
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #622
  • Edited 9:40am Aug 16, 2020 6:46am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting ursinho4711
@ll! Aren't we losing the thread? It was about "What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex", a more general almost philosophical topic. We should not discuss indicators or probabilities of single pairs here. There are enough other forums within FF to do it there... Just my2cents
Considering that CeeSo in his very first post started talking about probabilities, I think that discussions about probabilities in more specific areas, such as for a single pair, are also appropriate here.

Quoting CeeSo
Understanding variance (math of probabilities) is where I failed. I did not understand the simple math of randomness.

In reality, I am closer to 64% winning trades so I now have a process that will be fine even if I had 36 losing trades in a row.

3. The Markets are Random 85% of the time.
please do not troll me the math is coming soon.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #623
  • Aug 16, 2020 6:48am Aug 16, 2020 6:48am
Quoting ursinho4711
@ll! Aren't we losing the thread? It was about "What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex", a more general almost philosophical topic. We should not discuss indicators or probabilities of single pairs here. There are enough other forums within FF to do it there... Just my2cents
I suspect that if you opened a thread related to various statistics that you have shown in this thread that there would be quite a number of people happy to contribute.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #624
  • Aug 16, 2020 8:34am Aug 16, 2020 8:34am
Quoting jlongo
{quote} I also had that problem... Below a corrected version study(title="CeeSo lines", overlay=true) r = input(1, "Range as %") //Get previous day/week bar and avoiding realtime calculation by taking the previous to current bar PO = security(tickerid, "D", open[1], false) PH = security(tickerid, "D", high[1], false) PL = security(tickerid, "D", low[1], false) PC = security(tickerid, "D", close[1], false) CO = security(tickerid, "D", open, false) rp = r/100 //Calculate break down of range range = (PC * rp) RH = range + CO RH1 = range * 0.25 + CO...

Thank you for fixing that
  • #625
  • Aug 16, 2020 8:54am Aug 16, 2020 8:54am
Some of you are starting to really see the trees through the forest and others of you are just too lazy or too jaded to keep an open mind.

I told you all at the start of this thread that as retail traders we have ENEMIES that want to keep us stupid and chasing our tails. So I am just removing anyone that I see that is resistant to change or has a closed mind and wants to keep you stupid.


Some people will see 85% probabilities of Randomness as a threat to their Cognitive Biases. Others will see it as an amazing opportunity to really look at what they are doing and change their process or decision making to work within the parameters of the mathematical facts and reality.



It never ceases to amaze me that we all know that 95% of retail traders are losing money BUT yet we are all chasing after the same bull crap that is causing them to lose that money.


The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Nothing is going to change for you if you keep doing what all these losing traders are doing.

Market Structure, Patterns, Fibs, Market Profiles, Volume analysis and the rest of the stuff (the fake gurus that want you to buy their failed systems and the broker enemies that want you to over trade) are trying to keep you focused on are only going to make you miss the big picture. I am not saying don't use "some" of that stuff. I am "suggesting" to you that using math and statistics as the foundation of designing a process to enter the market, size trades correctly to reduce the chances of getting stopped out and take profits at the right time and distance is totally different then what all the other retail traders are doing and exactly what the institutional traders are doing.
  • #626
  • Aug 16, 2020 9:39am Aug 16, 2020 9:39am
Quoting CeeSo
Market Structure, Patterns, Fibs, Market Profiles, Volume analysis and the rest of the stuff (the fake gurus that want you to buy their failed systems and the broker enemies that want you to over trade) are trying to keep you focused on are only going to make you miss the big picture.
Isn't the statistical approach that you've described here, just another pattern in the forex? How is your presentation different from the observation that the market moves between pivots or fibs? It really isn't, is it? Are you any different from the other fake gurus? Do you understand the big picture (and I'm talking about the real big picture)? Go ahead and put me on your ignore list, but that just proves that your presentation and approach are weak. Scrutiny is sometimes a bitch, but you could use it to fortify your thinking.
  • #627
  • Aug 16, 2020 9:41am Aug 16, 2020 9:41am
Quoting vinforex7
{quote} You didn't understand a word I said, so you made up a bunch of accusations and assumptions about me. And then you embarrassed yourself with this post. I actually know how tier 1 banks, major hedge funds, and the federal reserve move the market. They understand market structure (hint: they impose structure) and they are the narrative. They don't care about your lines, but they do insist on them. And for the record, I've consulted with the top tier 1 banks in their trading operations in the US, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago....
If I'm around long enough, I'll fill in some of the gaps.
  • #628
  • Aug 16, 2020 9:49am Aug 16, 2020 9:49am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Isn't the statistical approach that you've described here, just another pattern in the forex? How is your presentation different from the observation that the market moves between pivots or fibs? It really isn't, is it? Are you any different from the other fake gurus? Do you understand the big picture (and I'm talking about the real big picture)? Go ahead and put me on your ignore list, but that just proves that your presentation and approach are weak. Scrutiny is sometimes a bitch, but you could use it to fortify your thinking.
CeeSo has actually plotted some DATA and gave an explanation about associated probabilities. I do not see that you presented any data at all about market movements between pivots or fibs. In fact, the closest you came to data is "observation".

So, if you can present data or a plot of the data of market movement between pivots or fibs similar to what CeeSo presented, then we can make a comparative analysis. Until then, you have offered nothing but speculation that PERHAPS there is no difference.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #629
  • Edited 10:38am Aug 16, 2020 10:18am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I do not see that you presented any data at all about market movements between pivots or fibs. In fact, the closest you came to data is "observation".
You, too, have missed the point, and have made assumptions. I did not advocate the use of pivots or fibs, nor am I saying you should use them, or that they are better or worse than CeeSo's presentation. But come on, you know as well as I that people who advocate any tool can present statistical data as to their market relevance. Everyone here has studied these tools and knows this to be true. The only observation I'm making is that CeeSo is exactly like everyone else. Committed and assured, but the same. He has basically made the observation that the market moves and squares in a pattern.

And btw...you can see how I trade in my FF journal. Nothing to hide. Some commentary can be found on structure and narrative, how I use tools, when I use them, etc. Pick it apart all you want. It's about 75% of what I actually do as a trader, but I havent been very active there for a few years. In fact, one of the last sets of posts was a live trading session, or at least as contemporanoius as I could get it. It is what it is.
  • #630
  • Aug 16, 2020 11:00am Aug 16, 2020 11:00am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I wish I had a winning rate of 80% lol I dont know where you got that idea from but if I was winning 80% of my trades I would own Fiji. 55% is all you need to make a very good living
But If 55% is enough then you must have an avg RR ratio greater than 1:2. With this method using wide stop how are you making it please I don't understand. If you are telling us that you are giving us a boat to go through the ocean then you should also give us a paddle to work with it.
AtTacKing My FeAr
  • #631
  • Aug 16, 2020 11:33am Aug 16, 2020 11:33am
Ceeso, i am not asking you to feed me, but, i understand you use percentage levels as a part of money management to take profit and stop loss? am i correct?
Do you use the level for placing your entry point ? For me when i talk about money management i consider entry point, exit point, trade sizing etc ... as money management. Attached is a small EA i made trading using the levels you show us, this is 1/1 ratio, am i on a correct path ?

Thanks
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  • #632
  • Aug 16, 2020 11:53am Aug 16, 2020 11:53am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} You, too, have missed the point, and have made assumptions. I did not advocate the use of pivots or fibs, nor am I saying you should use them, or that they are better or worse than CeeSo's presentation. But come on, you know as well as I that people who advocate any tool can present statistical data as to their market relevance. Everyone here has studied these tools and knows this to be true. The only observation I'm making is that CeeSo is exactly like everyone else. Committed and assured, but the same. He has basically made the observation...
No, I did not miss your point; I merely saw no need to address it.

What I did address was your attempt to lump what CeeSo presented into a large generalization group while failing to provide a similar statistical analysis from that group to use for comparative purposes to determine if CesSo's analysis belongs in that group or not.

I also did not speak about using or not using them. I spoke only of your lack of evidence for your claims.

And, your attempt to pass off "common knowledge" as truth here
Quoting GEfx
But come on, you know as well as I that people who advocate any tool can present statistical data as to their market relevance. Everyone here has studied these tools and knows this to be true.
is likewise baseless. That is similar to the statement in the year 1400, "Come on, everyone knows that the world is flat! Just look at any map of the known world and you will see the monsters that are drawn over the edges, waiting to devour those that dare ply the waves to the boundaries!"

And, if it should happen to be true that "people who advocate any tool can present statistical data", then why did you not round up some of this statistical data for pivot points or fibs to present here?

As for your remaining comments about how/when/what/where you trade, what relevance has that to the subject of using statistics to find an edge?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #633
  • Aug 16, 2020 12:10pm Aug 16, 2020 12:10pm
Quoting fxshofi
{quote} But If 55% is enough then you must have an avg RR ratio greater than 1:2. With this method using wide stop how are you making it please I don't understand. If you are telling us that you are giving us a boat to go through the ocean then you should also give us a paddle to work with it.
It looks like either you did not read all of CeeSo's posts, or you have poor reading comprehension.
Although he did not explicitly sate that he USES this R:R, he does sate that he is happy with it.

"I am extremely happy with a 1:1.5 average risk vs reward with much lower variance."
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #634
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:04pm Aug 16, 2020 1:04pm
Quoting neosqualls
Attached is a small EA i made trading using the levels you show us, this is 1/1 ratio, am i on a correct path ? Thanks
Looks interesting. May I ask which EA it is? Or "just" a common grid trader with % settings instead of pips?
  • #635
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:41pm Aug 16, 2020 1:41pm
Quoting ursinho4711
{quote} Looks interesting. May I ask which EA it is? Or "just" a common grid trader with % settings instead of pips?
A simple self made EA trading using the probability i found using Ceeso levels, TP and SL are also based on the levels .25 .5 .75 and 1.
  • #636
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:14pm Aug 16, 2020 2:14pm
So CeeSo your strategy is 100% probability and statistics? Relies on no other analysis?
  • #637
  • Aug 16, 2020 4:15pm Aug 16, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting jlongo
{quote} I also had that problem... Below a corrected version study(title="CeeSo lines", overlay=true) r = input(1, "Range as %") //Get previous day/week bar and avoiding realtime calculation by taking the previous to current bar PO = security(tickerid, "D", open[1], false) PH = security(tickerid, "D", high[1], false) PL = security(tickerid, "D", low[1], false) PC = security(tickerid, "D", close[1], false) CO = security(tickerid, "D", open, false) rp = r/100 //Calculate break down of range range = (PC * rp) RH = range + CO RH1 = range * 0.25 + CO...
Mmm - I receive the following errors. Does anyone know how to resolve please?
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  • #638
  • Aug 16, 2020 4:27pm Aug 16, 2020 4:27pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} No, I did not miss your point

As for your remaining comments about how/when/what/where you trade, what relevance has that to the subject of using statistics to find an edge?
No. You missed my point.

You know the relevance. It's the difference between wanting to be a trader and being a trader. You want to be a trader. Good luck you guys!
  • #639
  • Edited 5:07pm Aug 16, 2020 4:40pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Mmm - I receive the following errors. Does anyone know how to resolve please? {image}
Seems that you copy/past wrong lines...
The script starts in:

study(title="CeeSo lines", overlay=true)


And ends in:

plot(RL3, title="RL3",color=cSell, linewidth=1)

Regards

JL

Edit: Example working in what ticket you are trying...

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Started a blog: terraceman blogspot com
  • #640
  • Aug 16, 2020 5:47pm Aug 16, 2020 5:47pm
Quoting medici
Learning to trade profitably is not about capital protection. If it were, investing in a fixed income ETF, or something similar, would be the thing to do. Learning to trade profitably is about learning to lose. Most people are afraid of losing money, and taking a loss they find painful. One needs to get to the point where taking a loss causes no bother at all, because one knows that one is profitable in the long run. That is likely the result of a combination of having a profitable method and being reasonably well bank-rolled. Pain and fear cause...
The worst advice that you can give to somebody
You are very delusional if you think Learning to trade profitably is about learning to lose
I Bet You Are Broke medici
I was the same delusional person for 15 years I was so use to losing money that i stop caring about it
What Not To Do
Why start with what not to do? Because not smoking cigarettes is more healthy than eating all organic. Because if you lose all your money then trading becomes kind of impossible, doesn’t it.
You can do a lot by avoiding bad as opposed to seeking good
Trading is about preserving money, #1 rule in investing is to keep your capital
All you have to do is optimize your wins and make them work for you, It is all about your average risk to rewards ratio
Give yourself a ton of room for failure risk 1% or less of the money you’re willing to lose on each trade
DO not Trade When You’re Emotional

You don’t need an algorithm running on a supercomputer, but you do need some sort of system that won’t let you be an idiot
You will tell yourself you don’t need a defense against being an idiot. This is you being delusional. Believe me. I betrayed myself too many times before committing to my systems. You don’t win every time if you follow your methods but you do a hell of a lot better
And test your system. If it doesn’t make fake money then it certainly won’t make real money.
It breaks my heart when I see people following some bullshit newsletter or some coach with a fudged track record
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