What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Even if the probability of the daily price closing within the 50% boundaries is correct, if one does ADDITIONAL analysis of of the MOVEMENT of price on a smaller timeframe between open and close for the daily, it would not be surprising to find an edge for which direction to trade when price reaches some level after the daily open that uses the projected close range as a target zone..

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Quoting vinforex7

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{quote} Rennaissance.... To make it crystal clear for you... Im not making any claims here nor I have implemented this data successfully in my trading. I've been presented with a statistics, which sounds interesting for me and I feel I might be able to find a strategy out of it. Will I SURE find a good strategy out of this??? I dont' know!!! But if I find one... good for my trades... as simple as that. If you think.. the market works ONLY in the way YOU think it works, Im sorry to say.. you are in fool's paradise. We should always be flexible.....

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Quoting neosqualls

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EURAUD last 100 days :: 44% of the bar which touch +0.5 also touch +0.75 60% of the bar which touch -0.5 also touch -0.75 46% of the bar which touch +0.25 also touch +0.5 55% of the bar which touch -0.25 also touch -0.5

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Quoting kette

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{quote} so that I understand what you mean draw that in the chart {image} {image}

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Quoting neosqualls

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{quote} What do you mean ? There is nothing to draw on chart, it 's just a statistics, i take the last 100 bars calculate levels then check if high/low touch specific level.

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Quoting Rennaissance

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{quote} Here we go again!!! A high Probability of something happening does not mean not random. Where will you put stops and take profit, or how will you manage the trade. Without these inputs you can't say whether something has edge. I could care less that the market moves on average 95pips everyday. A good example to understand market randomness is to flip a coin ; risk 100 : reward 1. You will be right 99% of the time, the one time you are not will wipe out all your illusionary profits. cheers!

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Quoting kette

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{quote} what you've written EURAUD last 100 days :: 44% of the bar which touch +0.5 also touch +0.75 60% of the bar which touch -0.5 also touch -0.75 46% of the bar which touch +0.25 also touch +0.5 55% of the bar which touch -0.25 also touch -0.5

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      DailyOpenPrice       = iOpen(NULL, PERIOD_D1, shift);
      DailyClosePrice      = iClose(NULL,  PERIOD_D1, shift);
      DailyHighPrice       = iHigh(NULL,  PERIOD_D1, shift);
      DailyLowPrice        = iLow(NULL,  PERIOD_D1, shift);
      
      DailyOpenPriceLvlAbove = NormalizeDouble(DailyOpenPrice + ((DailyOpenPrice * lvl) / 100), Digits);
      DailyOpenPriceLvlBelow = NormalizeDouble(DailyOpenPrice - ((DailyOpenPrice * lvl) / 100), Digits);

Quoting kette

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What I find remarkable is that the DEMO TRADER hold the biggest and smartest speeches or write here, change your space to live trader and then something useful emerges {image}

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Quoting neosqualls

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EURAUD last 100 days :: 44% of the bar which touch +0.5 also touch +0.75 60% of the bar which touch -0.5 also touch -0.75 46% of the bar which touch +0.25 also touch +0.5 55% of the bar which touch -0.25 also touch -0.5

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Quoting kette

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{quote} so that I understand what you mean draw that in the chart {image} {image}

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Why do you have such disregard for demo accounts? Demo trading is a very smart way for beginners to practice using the tools of their platform so they make fewer fumbles when they go live, plus, it is a good place to do initial testing of new ideas to determine if they might even be worthwhile to use in a live account. In addition, if you believe that "something useful emerges" only if a poster demonstrates live trading, then why are you posting??

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} @kette, if you do not understand what he wrote, then either you need to consult someone that is a native English speaker or else you need to sign up for and study Statistics 101.

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Quoting CeeSo

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So this morning at the start of NY we saw some pretty interesting rejections of all the 50 levels on the USD that does happen but only in a balanced or consolidating market. So the facts are we know the market stays rangebound between the .5% plus or minus levels 85% of the time however it can also just move to those levels during London and Asia and stick there for the entire NY session and close slightly below by 5pm est. You can see that in this case, we did reject the .50 levels during the NY session but as I said this is not always the case....

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Quoting CeeSo

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{quote} You don't have to believe it but why are you still in a trading forum searching for answers? In the last 2 years, I have made money consistently and the last place on earth I wanted to be was in here. Cognitive Bias is a bitch but if you have been doing the exercise I suggested people to follow you would indeed see that the market randomly moves between the .5% levels 85% of the time. Anyways I am not going to debate this with you and I am also not going to prove anything the math speaks for itself. Do the exercise of watching the market...

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