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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #561
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:39am Aug 14, 2020 6:39am
Quoting gian97
I'd like to study its impact on indices when the US stock market opens.
That’s precisely where I’d like to test it too - whenever I’ve tested ADR based stuff in indices, it’s been useless. As such, not sure this would work but keen to find out.

The OP actually mentioned some useful stuff, alas everyone ignored it and concentrated on the indicator alone. Lol

Does anyone know how to get that script working in tradingview?
  • #562
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:29am Aug 14, 2020 9:29am
Quoting Asw
{quote} Here are the results. {image}
Thank you... ASW! Very nice of you to provide the details...!
How do you do it? I see that it also has option to see.. how high and low it went on average?
I feel that.. if we can plot the high / low / close in terms of pip value per day, and plot it on a chart... we'd be able to devise a very profitable strategy statistically.
  • #563
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:51am Aug 14, 2020 9:51am
Quoting Mtinifx
Just to say, (don't want to put a spanner in the works) that the forex market is not robotic, automated. It's a market made up of many different HUMAN players with human emotions, one of which is greed! I heard it said that it takes only ONE person somewhere in the world to move price in a certain direction. What I'm trying to say is that looking at the market from this human angle helps one to understand buying/selling FRENZY when any kind of levels mean very little. Sentiment is a huge driver of price action. I think we all tend to look at the...
Absolutely correct.. when you talk in terms of day trading, or if you are someone who can spend quality time infront of the charts. You can feel the momentum... you can feel the frenzy.. you can see the emotions play on the charts, when you look at it from a human angle and then you can take quality decisions based on that.

But imagine.. if you don't have as much time to spend on the charts and you are not skilled enough to read the charts efficiently. In such cases, it is right to look at the charts and the trading, through a completely different dimension. Here... statistics can help you a lot to make a profitable strategy. One... that would be profitable, on a large sample size.
For eg: If you know that, xyz/abc pair moves an average of 95 pips per day on 85% of trading days and also it closes within 50 pips from the opening price on 80% of the trading days, you would be able to plan a strategy to get a small chunk of pips everyday based on the statistics above. It may or may not be profitable in 10 trades, but it should be profitable in 100 trades.
  • #564
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:30am Aug 14, 2020 10:30am
Quoting vinforex7
{quote} Thank you... ASW! Very nice of you to provide the details...! How do you do it? I see that it also has option to see.. how high and low it went on average? I feel that.. if we can plot the high / low / close in terms of pip value per day, and plot it on a chart... we'd be able to devise a very profitable strategy statistically.

Hello vinforex7,

How do you do it? <= I just scan though a number of bars, in this case 365 and count how many close 0.05% from open, then do the maths.
Can extract some good quality data.

we'd be able to devise a very profitable strategy statistically <= Yes, that is possible, only thing is, there are too many arXXholes on here who spoil it for everyone else, no one is interested sharing their software anymore, because of the abuse they receive.

Asw
  • #565
  • Aug 14, 2020 1:44pm Aug 14, 2020 1:44pm
Hi Gals and Guys

So I am still very busy coding my AE for the FTMO Challenge and did not take any trades today but many of you still seem to be confused as to what does this data mean.

Let me be clear. This data just means that the market is random 85% of the time. It is conclusively showing us that only 85% of the time it will not close below or above plus or minus .5%

So that being said I have told you that I do not use these levels as support and resistance to ENTER trades.

I only use them as stops and targets.

The biggest problem I had in the past was placing stops too tight and getting stopped out like crazy. Which caused large dopamine rushes and then before you know it you are revenge trading or doubling down etc.. etc.. If you have this problem as well this data can turn your entire trading life around if you use it correctly. I can use the statistical data to place stops at levels that have a far better probability of working.

This is a very simple way for you to begin to start to use the data but there are 100 ways to skin a cat. All that matters is are you using measurable and quantifiable statistics to back up your probabilities and risk management rules?. I told you all the most important change I made was learning to control risk effectively!!!

BTW I have my own methods of ENTERING the markets that I have coded into a signal bar see the charts below but there is a lot of filters that go into my entries that I am not willing to discuss or share BUT I will make the contention that most of you can figure out for yourselves when to enter a market with some degree of accuracy.

Entering the market is the easy part but placing SAFE stops and correct Targets are where the levels shine.


I also want to say I will no longer be continuing to share my entry methods in this thread these are my last posts in regards to that topic. My mentor asked me to stop teaching it any further!!. Some of you will be pissed and upset with me and I understand why you would hate on me but I must honor my mentor's wishes. He turned my life around and I owe him that respect.

I will gladly discuss more topics of my emotional journey and challenges with dopamine addiction.

Kind Regards
Cee
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  • #566
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:51pm Aug 14, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting CeeSo
This data just means that the market is random 85% of the time. It is conclusively showing us that only 85% of the time it will not close below or above plus or minus .5%
That is not quite a correct assumption. You have not demonstrated that the market moves randomly during that 85% of the time that the CLOSE is within plus or minus 0.5% of the open value. Price could very well be moving in some pattern rather than randomly from the time of the daily open until the close.

Probably of even greater value is the probability plot of the high/low compared to the open price.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #567
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:48pm Aug 14, 2020 6:48pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That is not quite a correct assumption. You have not demonstrated that the market moves randomly during that 85% of the time that the CLOSE is within plus or minus 0.5% of the open value. Price could very well be moving in some pattern rather than randomly from the time of the daily open until the close. Probably of even greater value is the probability plot of the high/low compared to the open price.

You don't have to believe it but why are you still in a trading forum searching for answers?

In the last 2 years, I have made money consistently and the last place on earth I wanted to be was in here.

Cognitive Bias is a bitch but if you have been doing the exercise I suggested people to follow you would indeed see that the market randomly moves between the .5% levels 85% of the time.

Anyways I am not going to debate this with you and I am also not going to prove anything the math speaks for itself. Do the exercise of watching the market for a few months or don't either way best of luck.

P.S. Go back and look at my spreadsheet carefully there is gold hidden in it. specifically the frequency of .25 to .50 or .50 to .75 moves.
  • #568
  • Aug 14, 2020 8:06pm Aug 14, 2020 8:06pm
Quoting vinforex7
{quote} Absolutely correct.. when you talk in terms of day trading, or if you are someone who can spend quality time infront of the charts. You can feel the momentum... you can feel the frenzy.. you can see the emotions play on the charts, when you look at it from a human angle and then you can take quality decisions based on that. But imagine.. if you don't have as much time to spend on the charts and you are not skilled enough to read the charts efficiently. In such cases, it is right to look at the charts and the trading, through a completely...
Here we go again!!! A high Probability of something happening does not mean not random. Where will you put stops and take profit, or how will you manage the trade. Without these inputs you can't say whether something has edge. I could care less that the market moves on average 95pips everyday. A good example to understand market randomness is to flip a coin ; risk 100 : reward 1. You will be right 99% of the time, the one time you are not will wipe out all your illusionary profits. cheers!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #569
  • Aug 14, 2020 11:23pm Aug 14, 2020 11:23pm
Hello CeeSo. I love statistical data from you. I have one more question, for example, during the Asian session and the LD session, if the price is strengthened above + -0.25%, the probability that the US session will continue to follow the trend and reach + -50%, + - 75% (probability is how percent???)
Thank you again for the topic
  • #570
  • Edited 12:38am Aug 15, 2020 12:25am | Edited 12:38am
Hi CeeSo isn't your statistical approch showing the same principal as the following Pivot Point statistic?

And is it not the Gambler's fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy) to believe that the distribution stats gives an edge?
https://www.roulette17.com/resources/probabilities/

Hasn't neosqualls shown with his post https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13101397 that the chances for price to close above or below 50% are the same? resulting in the Gambler's fallacy?
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  • #571
  • Aug 15, 2020 2:21am Aug 15, 2020 2:21am
Quoting CeeSo
4. You have to stop giving a sh#t what other people think of your trading. I use to be crazy about proving things to other traders and being right all the time. I do not need to be right all the time I just need to be right 51% of the time and I can get very wealthy from this business and with the right Money Management I only need to be right 39% of the time to break even and everything after that is gravy and profits. (I will expand more on this later) I wish you all much love and happiness and hope you enjoy this thread. Cee
This part is so often looked past. All the rest are solid points but I think this is a hidden gem. So many times people have pitched me an idea and It doesn't fit my way of trading, yet I've talked myself into the trade. It hurts so much harder when its a losing trade. you should block out other people's trade ideas as much as possible
  • #572
  • Aug 15, 2020 3:21am Aug 15, 2020 3:21am
Same sample from EURAUD:

Over the last 365 days :
24% touched +0.5
25% touched -0.5

So 50% of the time the price touched +0.5 or -0.5

12% close above +0.5
14% close below -0.5

So 50% of the time the price touched +0.5 or -0.5 the day closed above +0.5 or below -0.5 ....

I have very few knowledge about stats and probability, maybe Ceeso could give more informations because so far if it's a matter about placing stop and take profit, ATR gives you the same... No ?
  • #573
  • Aug 15, 2020 4:40am Aug 15, 2020 4:40am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Here we go again!!! A high Probability of something happening does not mean not random. Where will you put stops and take profit, or how will you manage the trade. Without these inputs you can't say whether something has edge. I could care less that the market moves on average 95pips everyday. A good example to understand market randomness is to flip a coin ; risk 100 : reward 1. You will be right 99% of the time, the one time you are not will wipe out all your illusionary profits. cheers!
Rennaissance....
To make it crystal clear for you... Im not making any claims here nor I have implemented this data successfully in my trading. I've been presented with a statistics, which sounds interesting for me and I feel I might be able to find a strategy out of it. Will I SURE find a good strategy out of this??? I dont' know!!! But if I find one... good for my trades... as simple as that.

If you think.. the market works ONLY in the way YOU think it works, Im sorry to say.. you are in fool's paradise. We should always be flexible.. always be open. Like our religion says... Do not be a believer, but be a seeker!!! Always seek for pearls of wisdom everywhere.

Just to conclude... I've experimented a strategy on the basis of the statistics provided here. I started last week and I've managed 6% on a 10k dollar DEMO account in one week, with 0.1 lots. Will this be profitable this week? and the next and the next? I don't know...! and honestly... I don't worry. But if it does for a few weeks continuously, I WILL take notice.. and adapt it in a real account. There are a million ways to make profit from the market... if there was only ONE way, the market wouldn't have survived this long. Seek... and you shall find!!!
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  • #574
  • Aug 15, 2020 5:00am Aug 15, 2020 5:00am
Quoting CeeSo
So I promised you guys I would continue with this thread and one of the biggest things I had to accept before I became profitable was the Mathematical Facts that the market is random 85% of the time. This is 1 year of the $EURUSD (trust me when I tell you that all the other pairs are almost identical) What this data is tell you is the market spend 85% of its time in a range plus or minus .50% What exactly does that mean? It means you are getting stopped out a hell of lot of the time if you are using tight stops. !!! THIS IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND....
You sound a bit like Anton
Nice so see that someone is calculating odds!
Keep it up, subscribed for future questions.
  • #575
  • Aug 15, 2020 5:44am Aug 15, 2020 5:44am
Quoting Asw
{quote} Hello vinforex7, How do you do it? <= I just scan though a number of bars, in this case 365 and count how many close 0.05% from open, then do the maths. Can extract some good quality data. we'd be able to devise a very profitable strategy statistically <= Yes, that is possible, only thing is, there are too many arXXholes on here who spoil it for everyone else, no one is interested sharing their software anymore, because of the abuse they receive. Asw
Hey Asw
This looks awesome, compared to my excel Statistics
So i think its fully auto updated?
That sound bad, i found FF to late on my way of reasearch things i was digging into it.
  • #576
  • Aug 15, 2020 5:50am Aug 15, 2020 5:50am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} You don't have to believe it but why are you still in a trading forum searching for answers? In the last 2 years, I have made money consistently and the last place on earth I wanted to be was in here. Cognitive Bias is a bitch but if you have been doing the exercise I suggested people to follow you would indeed see that the market randomly moves between the .5% levels 85% of the time. Anyways I am not going to debate this with you and I am also not going to prove anything the math speaks for itself. Do the exercise of watching the market...
This
Quoting CeeSo
It is conclusively showing us that only 85% of the time it will not close below or above plus or minus .5%
you have absolutely correct.

1. You have totally misinterpreted what I said.

2. As you have said, don't believe anything that anyone on FF says. However, you can indeed take information about statistics and find an "expert" in the field that you do believe, and present the same comments and questions to him.

3. You displayed a surprisingly emotional response to my posting. That kind of response often occurs when someone holds closely a belief and suddenly doubts are raised as to its validity, thereby evoking a panic-like response.

4. I did look carefully at your spreadsheet and agree that there is very worthwhile information there, but it is not hidden; it is simply not readily apparent to the untrained observer. And as I have already said, indeed the frequency histogram does present worthwhile statistics regarding the value of the close that can be expected based on the value of the open of the daily bar. The data does appear to follow a Gaussian distribution. (I did not apply a test to very this, but the visual plot does suggest that that data belong to a Gaussian distribution.)

5. You stated that the market moves randomly 85% of the time between the 0.5% level. However, the data that you present clearly show only that from open to close of the daily bar, the price difference will be within the 0.5% range 85% of the time. That is all that this shows. However, you insist that when price is moving within this 0.5% zone, it is moving randomly. You do not supply data to support this conclusion of random price movement. That is quite another study that would likely yield worthwhile information.

6. I did not do an analysis on this myself (yet), but I suspect that rather than limiting your conclusion to the randomness of the close value versus the open value falling with 0.5% range 85% of the time, the entire data set can be represented by a Gaussian distribution, and assuming there would be few, if any, outliers, then this distribution curve can be used to find the probability of the close value falling within whatever range the user cares to examine. Furthermore, it would not be surprising if one would find that on a smaller TF, this distribution of the close value leads to a profitable strategy by examining the price movement on the smaller TF compared to the projected daily close value.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #577
  • Aug 15, 2020 5:56am Aug 15, 2020 5:56am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} You don't have to believe it but why are you still in a trading forum searching for answers?
Why/how do you make an assumption as to my reasons or motives for participating in a forum?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #578
  • Aug 15, 2020 6:02am Aug 15, 2020 6:02am
Quoting colbru
Hasn't neosqualls shown with his post https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13101397 that the chances for price to close above or below 50% are the same? resulting in the Gambler's fallacy? {image}
Even if the probability of the daily price closing within the 50% boundaries is correct, if one does ADDITIONAL analysis of
of the MOVEMENT of price on a smaller timeframe between open and close for the daily, it would not be surprising to find an edge for which direction to trade when price reaches some level after the daily open that uses the projected close range as a target zone..
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #579
  • Aug 15, 2020 6:10am Aug 15, 2020 6:10am
Quoting neosqualls
Same sample from EURAUD: Over the last 365 days : 24% touched +0.5 25% touched -0.5 So 50% of the time the price touched +0.5 or -0.5 12% close above +0.5 14% close below -0.5 So 50% of the time the price touched +0.5 or -0.5 the day closed above +0.5 or below -0.5 .... I have very few knowledge about stats and probability, maybe Ceeso could give more informations because so far if it's a matter about placing stop and take profit, ATR gives you the same... No ?
Regarding ATR check his post #198
  • #580
  • Aug 15, 2020 6:29am Aug 15, 2020 6:29am
Hi Folks !

There is way to much discussion here about who is right or wrong.
What really counts is at the ATM ;-)
That is my only indicator
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