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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #521
  • Aug 11, 2020 12:59am Aug 11, 2020 12:59am
Quoting CeeSo
This is my first forum post but I am not a newbie. I have lost about 300,000$ trading forex over the course of 5 years and it has been a huge struggle, to say the least but I kept persevering and educating myself and this year I am finally profitable to the tune of $130,000. After all this time and stress (and finally a very good mentor) I figured out some basic truths about forex trading. 1. You have to Master Money Management first and foremost. Forget EVERYTHING else and learn to lose like a professional. I spent tens of thousands of dollars...
CeeSo, I am so happy to find this thread, thank you! I am a new trader (December last year), not full time, but working on going full time soon. Your statement about 85% randomness is a breath of fresh air! It justifies my system not always working and points to the fact that maybe I am over trading, although I currently only take 1-3 trades a day, this makes me think that even THAT maybe too many! I consistently write in my notes "maybe that one good trade today was good enough", yet I still look for a second trade after.. ALWAYS!?!

Thanks for the thread, I will follow, and add something if I feel necessary... but like you said, why bother, my post would be just more noise and distraction... thanks you again!
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #522
  • Edited 9:25am Aug 11, 2020 9:08am | Edited 9:25am
Hey Guys and Gals

I have not been posting in here much because I found it was too much of a distraction during the trading day and it was also triggering me into a few dopamine rushes early in the morning wanting to check the messages.

If I missed any of your posts or question please FORGIVE me I am a full time trader and my first responsibility comes to feed my family. I hope you guys can understand.

Some of you have DM me and I apologize for not getting back to your messages as well.

The code script for the levels on Tradingview is... I took my name off so name it whatever you like.


r = input(1, "Range as %")
//Get previous day/week bar and avoiding realtime calculation by taking the previous to current bar
PO = security(tickerid, "D", open[1], barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)
PH = security(tickerid, "D", high[1], barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)
PL = security(tickerid, "D", low[1], barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)
PC = security(tickerid, "D", close[1], barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)
CO = security(tickerid, "D", open, barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)
rp = r/100
//Calculate break down of range
range = (PC * rp)
RH = range + CO
RH1 = range * 0.25 + CO
RH2 = range * 0.5 + CO
RH3 = range * 0.75 + CO
RL = CO - range
RL1 = CO - (range * 0.25)
RL2 = CO - (range * 0.5)
RL3 = CO - (range * 0.75)
//Colors (<ternary conditional operator> expression prevents continuous lines on history)
cSell=PO != PO[1] ? na : red
cBuy=PO != PO[1] ? na : green
cStop=PO != PO[1] ? na : fuchsia
//Plotting Person's Pivots
plot(CO, title="Open",color=gray, linewidth=2)
plot(RH, title="RH",color=cStop, linewidth=2)
plot(RH1, title="RH1",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RH2, title="RH2",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RH3, title="RH3",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RL, title="RL",color=cStop, linewidth=2)
plot(RL1, title="RL1",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RL2, title="RL2",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RL3, title="RL3",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
  • #523
  • Edited 9:43am Aug 11, 2020 9:24am | Edited 9:43am
So this morning at the start of NY we saw some pretty interesting rejections of all the 50 levels on the USD that does happen but only in a balanced or consolidating market.


So the facts are we know the market stays rangebound between the .5% plus or minus levels 85% of the time however it can also just move to those levels during London and Asia and stick there for the entire NY session and close slightly below by 5pm est.


You can see that in this case, we did reject the .50 levels during the NY session but as I said this is not always the case. I want to repeat these levels are not support and resistance however if the market is balanced and you are very skilled at reading the orderflow they can act as support and resistance "at times". However do not be fooled by randomness.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #524
  • Aug 11, 2020 9:40am Aug 11, 2020 9:40am
I did not trade this morning because I did not like the big moves into the NY session. I "prefer" to trade with the trend into the big levels rather than fade them and all the trending moves happened during London and Asia.

This is just my personal trading preference but in hindsight fading these levels was the best trade during NY.

Tomorrow is another day
  • #525
  • Aug 11, 2020 9:55am Aug 11, 2020 9:55am
Quoting corrman
{quote} I could try that, but I would be too worried about risk while I was gone so I would have to trade the minimum. That could still be ok if it works well, then I might be able to increase size, which is btw, the only way to try anything different or new anyway. I should probably start looking for my setups more often.
If you are worried about the risk while you are gone, you are trading too much in lot size. If your entry is good, Stop is placed, TP is placed, and your system works historically, then why is there the need to monitor and watch. You will just second guess your entry and that ends up changing your system into failure. OBSERVE the market, follow your system, get a good entry by your system parameters, set SL, set TP, let it do what it will, and find next entry.
  • #526
  • Aug 11, 2020 10:00am Aug 11, 2020 10:00am
Quoting CeeSo
I did not trade this morning because I did not like the big moves into the NY session. I "prefer" to trade with the trend into the big levels rather than fade them and all the trending moves happened during London and Asia. This is just my personal trading preference but in hindsight fading these levels was the best trade during NY. Tomorrow is another day
I was away from market for last 5 days so part of my strategy is to NOT trade first day back but to observe and review action while i was gone. If i miss a trade, it is ok. In fact i miss MANY trades because i am not at computer all the time. I trade when i am happy with a setup ONLY.My win rate is greater than my loss rate and risk is always managed. When in a rush to make profit, that is a BAD setup for traders. Realize that doubling your money in ANY other place takes YEARS so why are traders so inclined to want to double their money in days/weeks in forex. YES it is possible but that is crazy pressure to put on oneself. Just chill and take time.

I think not taking a trade shows great discipline.
  • #527
  • Aug 11, 2020 10:24am Aug 11, 2020 10:24am
Quoting CeeSo
Hey Guys and Gals I have not been posting in here much because I found it was too much of a distraction during the trading day and it was also triggering me into a few dopamine rushes early in the morning wanting to check the messages. If I missed any of your posts or question please FORGIVE me I am a full time trader and my first responsibility comes to feed my family. I hope you guys can understand. Some of you have DM me and I apologize for not getting back to your messages as well. The code script for the levels on Tradingview is... I took my...
....in this orede copy paste
  • #528
  • Aug 11, 2020 11:28am Aug 11, 2020 11:28am
Quoting modsky
{quote} I was away from market for last 5 days so part of my strategy is to NOT trade first day back but to observe and review action while i was gone. If i miss a trade, it is ok. In fact i miss MANY trades because i am not at computer all the time. I trade when i am happy with a setup ONLY.My win rate is greater than my loss rate and risk is always managed. When in a rush to make profit, that is a BAD setup for traders. Realize that doubling your money in ANY other place takes YEARS so why are traders so inclined to want to double their money...

I could not agree more!
I had to learn that I was addicted to the dopamine rushes. In the past, I use to get up at 7:00 am est and have a trade on by 7:10 am est.
I knew I was better when I was able to get up and still sit in front of my computer and not trade.

It started slowly like I would force myself to not trade till the US open 8 am est, then the next day the NYSE open at 9:30 am est. Finally, after weeks of forcing myself, I was able to go all day without a trade and not even think about it much.

The hard part is making strict rules and conditions that must pass a checklist before you are allowed to push a button.
  • #529
  • Aug 12, 2020 12:40am Aug 12, 2020 12:40am
Hello CeeSo,

For Higher TF such as 1hr, 4hr or more taking your sample data and historical result. i would like to know what percent move for this TF.
i have a strategy that triggers on 1HR TF. Pls can should i still use the .25, .50 moves or there are peculiar percent for these higher timeframe?
And also for your swing trades as you mentioned, what percent do you use?

Thank you in advance..
  • #530
  • Aug 12, 2020 1:41am Aug 12, 2020 1:41am
Quoting vickypumpin
Hello CeeSo, For Higher TF such as 1hr, 4hr or more taking your sample data and historical result. i would like to know what percent move for this TF. i have a strategy that triggers on 1HR TF. Pls can should i still use the .25, .50 moves or there are peculiar percent for these higher timeframe? And also for your swing trades as you mentioned, what percent do you use? Thank you in advance..
I wonder why you ask questions about developing your own trading system instead of simply using the data presented along with going through past data for the instruments and timeframes that interest you and collecting the related data yourself.

You will see from your own data the relevance of 0.25%, 0.50%, etc. Perhaps you will find a different distribution for other timeframes.

In any case, sharing your data here will at the least add to the statistical significance of the results that CeeSo provided.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #531
  • Aug 12, 2020 2:18am Aug 12, 2020 2:18am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I could not agree more! I had to learn that I was addicted to the dopamine rushes. In the past, I use to get up at 7:00 am est and have a trade on by 7:10 am est. https://cdn-resources.faireconomy.me....png?v=1.0.0.3 I knew I was better when I was able to get up and still sit in front of my computer and not trade. It started slowly like I would force myself to not trade till the US open 8 am est, then the next day the...
Indeed, an experienced trader makes actually most money by sitting on his hand 😁😉Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #532
  • Edited 4:29am Aug 12, 2020 3:55am | Edited 4:29am
Attached Image
I created a percent calculator.
Download here:
http://obchodnidenik.cz/download/ForexPercentage.exe

or
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ForexPercentage.zip   199 KB | 382 downloads
  • #533
  • Aug 12, 2020 9:20am Aug 12, 2020 9:20am
Quoting vickypumpin
Hello CeeSo, For Higher TF such as 1hr, 4hr or more taking your sample data and historical result. i would like to know what percent move for this TF. i have a strategy that triggers on 1HR TF. Pls can should i still use the .25, .50 moves or there are peculiar percent for these higher timeframe? And also for your swing trades as you mentioned, what percent do you use? Thank you in advance..
For the daily frequency distribution, you need daily data if you want to swing trade with a statistical approach you would need weekly data but basically everything else is the same.

You calculate the bell curve statistical ranges where the market stays contained 85 to 90% of the time
  • #534
  • Aug 12, 2020 9:20am Aug 12, 2020 9:20am
Quoting Toky2
{image}I created a percent calculator. Download here: http://obchodnidenik.cz/download/ForexPercentage.exe or{file}

That is a nice little tool
  • #535
  • Aug 12, 2020 9:50am Aug 12, 2020 9:50am
@CeeSo

I used your lines on weekly data from an indicator shared here but doesn't work.
The weekly open coincide with daily open so mainly you will have Monday lines for the rest of the week.
How do you calculate these lines on weekly and monthly for swing trading?
Thanks
  • #536
  • Aug 12, 2020 10:02am Aug 12, 2020 10:02am
Quoting CeeSo
Hey Guys and Gals I have not been posting in here much because I found it was too much of a distraction during the trading day and it was also triggering me into a few dopamine rushes early in the morning wanting to check the messages. If I missed any of your posts or question please FORGIVE me I am a full time trader and my first responsibility comes to feed my family. I hope you guys can understand. Some of you have DM me and I apologize for not getting back to your messages as well. The code script for the levels on Tradingview is... I took my...
This didn't seem to work for me in TradingView - any idea why, please? I simply copied and pasted. I am researching probabilities so would be keen to have a play around with this. Appreciate the script.

I work for an Investment Bank myself. Although understandable, I find it quite funny that there's so much debate regarding how banks trade on forums. Most IB traders study finance at Oxford simply to move around money for customers, executing trades at VWAP for them. 90% of bank traders wouldn't know how to execute a PA trade if their career depended on it, they'd shit themselves. At best they're allowed to hedge. Banks mostly make their money from market making and commissions from HNW individuals.

In my experience most bank algos are based on volume, volatility, velocity and fundamentals. That's not to say black box strategies at hedge funds or whatever aren't using this approach.

FWIW, I am a profitable trader and I can tell you know what you're doing based on some of the things you have said. Not sure why some choose to bite the hand that feeds them, it's kind of you to offer support.
  • #537
  • Aug 12, 2020 10:17am Aug 12, 2020 10:17am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} For the daily frequency distribution, you need daily data if you want to swing trade with a statistical approach you would need weekly data but basically everything else is the same. You calculate the bell curve statistical ranges where the market stays contained 85 to 90% of the time
As long as you are using statistical measures, I think that using 2 standard deviation units on both sides of the mean would be more relevant for "bounding" the market range of interest. If that seems to be a bit wide, reduce it to something in the range of 1.45-1.65 standard deviations.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #538
  • Aug 12, 2020 10:56am Aug 12, 2020 10:56am
Some very good points here Ceeso. I commend your patience with some of the trolls like ldfx.
4. You have to stop giving a sh#t what other people think of your trading.
  • #539
  • Aug 12, 2020 11:29pm Aug 12, 2020 11:29pm
@Ceeso,

Thank you..

@DrDave,

Sequel to your response perhaps you didn't read my questions well..

But it's ok thank you too.. Appreciate it
  • #540
  • Aug 13, 2020 1:27am Aug 13, 2020 1:27am
How do you get these % statistics? Let me explain ... is there an expert advisor or a tool that can help automate the search for these statistics or do you have to do it manually?
I mean the % of how many times the price has closed above or below a level, not an indicator that displays levels like the ones posted here.
I'd like to study its impact on indices when the US stock market opens.
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