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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #601
  • Aug 15, 2020 8:13pm Aug 15, 2020 8:13pm
Quoting fxshofi
{quote} Hello, I am wondering how you are making money with such RR and also presuming that you have a winning rate >80%! Another thing is that if your winning rate is high why don't you take more risk as you have a more secure stop for your entry. Hope to hear from you soon and this thread is really making me think with a new perspective. Thank you.

I wish I had a winning rate of 80% lol

I dont know where you got that idea from but if I was winning 80% of my trades I would own Fiji.

55% is all you need to make a very good living
  • #602
  • Aug 15, 2020 8:15pm Aug 15, 2020 8:15pm
Quoting hmdimn
{quote} Thank you CEESO for the info. I was unable to create an scrip using your code on Tradingview. I got this error: Processing script... Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.gaps_off`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.lookahead_on`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.gaps_off`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.lookahead_on`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.gaps_off`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.lookahead_on`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.gaps_off`; Error: Undeclared identifier `barmerge.lookahead_on`;...
I also had that problem...
Below a corrected version

study(title="CeeSo lines", overlay=true)

r = input(1, "Range as %")
//Get previous day/week bar and avoiding realtime calculation by taking the previous to current bar
PO = security(tickerid, "D", open[1], false)
PH = security(tickerid, "D", high[1], false)
PL = security(tickerid, "D", low[1], false)
PC = security(tickerid, "D", close[1], false)
CO = security(tickerid, "D", open, false)
rp = r/100
//Calculate break down of range
range = (PC * rp)
RH = range + CO
RH1 = range * 0.25 + CO
RH2 = range * 0.5 + CO
RH3 = range * 0.75 + CO
RL = CO - range
RL1 = CO - (range * 0.25)
RL2 = CO - (range * 0.5)
RL3 = CO - (range * 0.75)
//Colors (<ternary conditional operator> expression prevents continuous lines on history)
cSell=PO != PO[1] ? na : red
cBuy=PO != PO[1] ? na : green
cStop=PO != PO[1] ? na : fuchsia
//Plotting Person's Pivots
plot(CO, title="Open",color=gray, linewidth=2)
plot(RH, title="RH",color=cStop, linewidth=2)
plot(RH1, title="RH1",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RH2, title="RH2",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RH3, title="RH3",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RL, title="RL",color=cStop, linewidth=2)
plot(RL1, title="RL1",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RL2, title="RL2",color=cSell, linewidth=1)
plot(RL3, title="RL3",color=cSell, linewidth=1)


Very simple, each line is just
above : 1/100 of value of last day close * percentage + actual day open
below: actual day open - 1/100 of value of last day close * percentage
central is the actual open

Regards

JL
Started a blog: terraceman blogspot com
  • #603
  • Aug 15, 2020 8:22pm Aug 15, 2020 8:22pm
Quoting GEfx
This thread has become a typical FF presentation: CeeSo presents several common sense, well know and well understood ideas (in this case, MM, discipline, and statistical understanding of PA), and a series a arguments ensues, most unrelated to the actual topics being presented. With all due respect, the information presented here is superficial and derivative at best. That's not to say that it's not necessary to know CeeSo's information, but these points are a very small part of actually trading, or becoming a trader. If you consider market structure...
Saying that knowing your market inside and out with proven mathematical statistics is superficial and derivative hahaha!

That is like saying "I sort of know the things that make my wife happy and the things that piss her off".

Good Luck with that!!!

If you are going to spend a lifetime with your wife (and you want to have a happy life) you better know every detail of her personality. If you are going to make a lifetime career out of a few markets you better know every detail of them as well.

The problem is that you believe the hype that the trading gurus and brokers want you to believe are important but it's ok I was once a Numpty too so I understand your cognitive biases.

Did you ever wonder why major hedge funds, Investment banks, market makers, large clearing firms and the rest of the professionals that really move the markets... DO NOT USE CHARTS?

because the charts don't matter!!!

The line to the left keeps serving the purple kool-aid
  • #604
  • Aug 15, 2020 9:31pm Aug 15, 2020 9:31pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} [...] 55% is all you need to make a very good living
About your concept (mathematical method) or in general?

If in general not really, you can get a good living even by winning 35% depending your R:R
Let the market decide
  • #605
  • Aug 15, 2020 9:35pm Aug 15, 2020 9:35pm
Quoting neosqualls
{quote} Yes, i made an indicator with loop over the last x bars calculating levels : DailyOpenPrice = iOpen(NULL, PERIOD_D1, shift); DailyClosePrice = iClose(NULL, PERIOD_D1, shift); DailyHighPrice = iHigh(NULL, PERIOD_D1, shift); DailyLowPrice = iLow(NULL, PERIOD_D1, shift); DailyOpenPriceLvlAbove = NormalizeDouble(DailyOpenPrice + ((DailyOpenPrice * lvl) / 100), Digits); DailyOpenPriceLvlBelow = NormalizeDouble(DailyOpenPrice - ((DailyOpenPrice * lvl) / 100), Digits); With this i do the maths and get the percentage.
I like people that work to create indys but don't forget to share them
Let the market decide
  • #606
  • Aug 15, 2020 9:52pm Aug 15, 2020 9:52pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I wish I had a winning rate of 80% lol I dont know where you got that idea from but if I was winning 80% of my trades I would own Fiji. 55% is all you need to make a very good living

"55% is all you need to make a very good living"
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #607
  • Aug 15, 2020 11:06pm Aug 15, 2020 11:06pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} "55% is all you need to make a very good living"
PROPABLY ....
  • #609
  • Edited Aug 16, 2020 7:59am Aug 15, 2020 11:57pm | Edited Aug 16, 2020 7:59am
Hello guys, I'm a new member in FF, but i've been a reader in many forums here. I found this thread and it made me sign up and make an account here.

Thank you for Ceeso and everyone for giving informations.

I'd like to ask if ceeso indicator is available on mt5?
  • #610
  • Aug 16, 2020 12:13am Aug 16, 2020 12:13am
[quote=GEfx;13115597]{quote} You didn't understand a word I said, so you made up a bunch of accusations and assumptions about me. And then you embarrassed yourself with this post. I actually know how tier 1 banks, major hedge funds, and the federal reserve move the market. They understand market structure (hint: they impose structure) and they are the narrative. They don't care about your lines, but they do insist on them. And for the record, I've consulted with the top tier 1 banks in their trading operations in the US, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. If you actually understood the market, you would never post such bullshit. Sorry to have disrupted your flow here, but if you knew how and why the market moves, you'd have a much different thread.[/quote]

We are interested GEfx... Please share your knowledge on this.
  • #611
  • Aug 16, 2020 12:16am Aug 16, 2020 12:16am
Quoting jlongo
{quote} I also had that problem... Below a corrected version study(title="CeeSo lines", overlay=true) r = input(1, "Range as %") //Get previous day/week bar and avoiding realtime calculation by taking the previous to current bar PO = security(tickerid, "D", open[1], false) PH = security(tickerid, "D", high[1], false) PL = security(tickerid, "D", low[1], false) PC = security(tickerid, "D", close[1], false) CO = security(tickerid, "D", open, false) rp = r/100 //Calculate break down of range range = (PC * rp) RH = range + CO RH1 = range * 0.25 + CO...

How I can thank you? God bless you!
  • #612
  • Edited 2:21am Aug 16, 2020 2:06am | Edited 2:21am
Over the Last 365 days on EURAUD :

If daily touch +1% the next day there is 80% probability for price touching +0.25%
If daily touch -1% the next day there is 76.6% probability for price touching -0.25%


If daily touch +0.75% the next day there is 75% probability for price touching +0.25%
If daily touch -0.75% the next day there is 64.8% probability for price touching -0.25%
  • #613
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:16am Aug 16, 2020 2:16am
Quoting neosqualls
Over the Last 365 days on EURAUD : If daily touch +1% the next day there is 80% probability for price touching +0.25% If daily touch -1% the next day there is 76.6% probability for price touching -0.25%
Very interesting like info. How can we get these data? If I want myself to find a probability on another pair, in the last X days, about X level. What is the fast way?

Thanks.
Let the market decide
  • #614
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:28am Aug 16, 2020 2:28am
Quoting neosqualls
Over the Last 365 days on EURAUD : If daily touch +1% the next day there is 80% probability for price touching +0.25% If daily touch -1% the next day there is 76.6% probability for price touching -0.25% If daily touch +0.75% the next day there is 75% probability for price touching +0.25% If daily touch -0.75% the next day there is 64.8% probability for price touching -0.25%
...and now the calculation gets difficult: where to place your S/L? In how many cases and with which amplitude did the daily go into the oposite direction before coming back to the predicted, probable price?
S/L too tight: can be stopped out before reaching target price
S/L too wide: can eat the all the wins

Remember the spikes, false breakouts. Things are more complex than simple probability. If it was that easy, nobody would be here in this forum ;-)
  • #615
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:30am Aug 16, 2020 2:30am
Quoting MondumaFx
{quote} Very interesting like info. How can we get these data? If I want myself to find a probability on another pair, in the last X days, about X level. What is the fast way? Thanks.
I use mql4 i code a small indicator that just loop over the N last days, check if high/low touch desired and levels then check what happened N+1.

Maybe it could be interesting to see in details when the N high touch +1% and N+1 touch +0.25% does it also touch -0.25% ? If no, it's interesting to put take profit at +0.25% and -0.25% as stop loss (reverse for sell).
  • #616
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:32am Aug 16, 2020 2:32am
Quoting ursinho4711
{quote} ...and now the calculation gets difficult: where to place your S/L? In how many cases and with which amplitude did the daily go into the oposite direction before coming back to the predicted, probable price? S/L too tight: can be stopped out before reaching target price S/L too wide: can eat the all the wins Remember the spikes, false breakouts. Things are more complex than simple probability. If it was that easy, nobody would be here in this forum ;-)
Yes, i totally agree, this is the process of research i like =)But we have to start somewhere, the first result doesn't mean this is a working system.
  • #617
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:44am Aug 16, 2020 2:44am


If daily touch +1% the next day there is 16% probability for price touching +0.25% without touching -0.25%
If daily touch -1% the next day there is 17% probability for price touching -0.25% without touching +0.25%
  • #618
  • Aug 16, 2020 3:36am Aug 16, 2020 3:36am
Quoting neosqualls
If daily touch +1% the next day there is 16% probability for price touching +0.25% without touching -0.25% If daily touch -1% the next day there is 17% probability for price touching -0.25% without touching +0.25%
It's interesting, but I'm not saying that is viable for a strategy.
Could you share the indicator?
Let the market decide
  • #619
  • Edited 5:18am Aug 16, 2020 4:53am | Edited 5:18am
Here it is but it's not useful if you can't modify the code to specify what you look for

EDIT : Agree with ursinho4711, will keep my mouth shut
  • #620
  • Edited 5:40am Aug 16, 2020 5:10am | Edited 5:40am
@ll!

Aren't we losing the thread? It was about "What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex", a more general almost philosophical topic.
We should not discuss indicators or probabilities of single pairs here.
There are enough other forums within FF to do it there...
Just my2cents
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