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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #661
  • Aug 19, 2020 8:23am Aug 19, 2020 8:23am
Quoting CeeSo
Many of you have asked about how to build your own spreadsheets for frequency distributions. I was given a customized spreadsheet from my mentor that I can not share but it is pretty easy to build one on your own. I pull the historical data from this site for free Follow the 3 easy steps to get the data {image}
That is certainly one data source to use for analysis. However, remember that different providers will have different historical data. (Download from yahoo finance and compare the data to investing.com.)

For the statistical analysis, the data source won't make much difference. However, if you want to do additional analyses that are more specific to the data plotted on your charts, then, then you need to use the historical data from your charting application's feed.

Note from your CHARTING application's feed. For example, if your charting application is MT4, then you need to download the historical data that is in the MT4 history.

Why is this important? Because when your broker's data is sent to the MT4 application, it is common, especially when there is a large volume of data in a short time period, that some of the data is lost.

Even if your broker provides historical data for you to download, if you compare that to the MT4 history data, you will find differences.

So, always consider the final application of your analytical results and whether the differences that can occur due to differences in source data will affect your end use.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #662
  • Aug 19, 2020 9:35am Aug 19, 2020 9:35am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That is certainly one data source to use for analysis. However, remember that different providers will have different historical data. (Download from yahoo finance and compare the data to investing.com.) For the statistical analysis, the data source won't make much difference. However, if you want to do additional analyses that are more specific to the data plotted on your charts, then, then you need to use the historical data from your charting application's feed. Note from your CHARTING application's feed. For example, if your charting...
yes, but in this case the deviation is minimal and negligible.

whether the EU has now closed 0.49% with one broker and 0.53% with the other is irrelevant for long-term observation when it comes to the cluster at the respective

levels 0.25, 0.50, 0.75 and 1.00.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #663
  • Aug 19, 2020 9:49am Aug 19, 2020 9:49am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yes, but in this case the deviation is minimal and negligible. whether the EU has now closed 0.49% with one broker and 0.53% with the other is irrelevant for long-term observation when it comes to the cluster at the respective levels 0.25, 0.50, 0.75 and 1.00.
Yes, of course. I covered that in my post. Maybe you missed it??

Quoting DrDave
For the statistical analysis, the data source won't make much difference. However, if you want to do additional analyses that are more specific to the data plotted on your charts, ...
So, always consider the final application of your analytical results and whether the differences that can occur due to differences in source data will affect your end use.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #664
  • Aug 19, 2020 9:51am Aug 19, 2020 9:51am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Yes, of course. I covered that in my post. Maybe you missed it?? {quote}
ah, yes i have overlooked it;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #665
  • Aug 19, 2020 10:31am Aug 19, 2020 10:31am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Ceeso, Perhaps the Dopamine rush will be a bit less if you lock your trades in and walk away like it never happened, Trust me, it works for me. My stress is the point of entry and I lock my trades in shortly thereafter like it never happened. I sleep well, I am active and my life goes on, I am up almost 8000 pips in your example of Gu. Cheers {image}
How is possible to be up 8000 pips when it only moved 80pips. Your walk away strategy is good and i do this as well BUT i can not understand your math here.
  • #666
  • Aug 19, 2020 10:49am Aug 19, 2020 10:49am
Quoting modsky
{quote} How is possible to be up 8000 pips when it only moved 80pips. Your walk away strategy is good and i do this as well BUT i can not understand your math here.
Hi Modsky,
I have not shown you the whole picture. Perhaps this will clarify.
Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade to trade another day
  • #667
  • Aug 19, 2020 12:06pm Aug 19, 2020 12:06pm
Quoting modsky
{quote} How is possible to be up 8000 pips when it only moved 80pips. Your walk away strategy is good and i do this as well BUT i can not understand your math here.
Math, should be, pips / trades.
  • #668
  • Aug 19, 2020 5:20pm Aug 19, 2020 5:20pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Mmm - I receive the following errors. Does anyone know how to resolve please? {image}
Remove //@version=4, leave only the data posted. I had the same error. After removing it everything is ok.
Observer effect
  • #669
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:31am Aug 20, 2020 5:31am

Heya,

I could get good servers for FX-Trading and wanted to ask if anyone of you wants to collaborate with a strategy? maybe market-making or stat arb(pair trading) would work in the forex market. Anyone has a strategy and wants to work together?

Regards

  • #670
  • Aug 20, 2020 7:23am Aug 20, 2020 7:23am
Thank you CeeSo very much for this thread . This is just great! Wish you only green days !

Today USDCHF and GBBUSD trades are significant. Yesterday all EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD and USDJPY was also very very extremely good.

I want to ask you a question if your mentor would not be against for little advice. I know that many of us are searching for a good entry. But good entry + good exit is the key, not only the entrance. Where you appreciate to exit the trade?

Now I'm creating the indicator for MT5 and MT4 and once it will be done I'll share it for free in this thread. I have implemented it to my EA and it shows great results. I personally exit on opposite Stoch or on opposite signal (in profit) not waiting for a level or that zone touched (because it can bounce and reverse). But may be there is any hidden trick?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Observer effect
  • #671
  • Aug 20, 2020 8:35am Aug 20, 2020 8:35am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Modsky, I have not shown you the whole picture. Perhaps this will clarify. Cheers. {image}
ok, I thought you meant you made 8000p on that last move, but it is since at least March 2020. Thanks to clarify it for me. but all those trades still are open? I only count my pips when I have closed trade and money is in the account. Have had times with GBP pairs (and others) when up even 500p that a sudden reverse kills it to BE. Just me, cautious and careful to take money off the table, then out of account and INTO my bank.
  • #672
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:56pm Aug 20, 2020 12:56pm
Quoting modsky
{quote} ok, I thought you meant you made 8000p on that last move, but it is since at least March 2020. Thanks to clarify it for me. but all those trades still are open? I only count my pips when I have closed trade and money is in the account. Have had times with GBP pairs (and others) when up even 500p that a sudden reverse kills it to BE. Just me, cautious and careful to take money off the table, then out of account and INTO my bank.
When it comes to long term trades I walk away when price moves away from my breakeven. I am not target-orientated but would rather enter into trades when I get reversal signals, effectively hedging but enter again when trades go back into the major trend. More long term orientated works for me, but may not be everyone's cup of tea. I do take money off the table but selectively. Taking all off the table creates a new stress and dopamine rush, and with a dopamine rush, I become irrational. I would rather make a fully educated trade decision with a calm and sound mind.
Either way, I lose and gain just like everyone else but with less stress.

Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #673
  • Aug 20, 2020 7:40pm Aug 20, 2020 7:40pm
Very interesting to read, but I think market is not random and if we will not overcome our mistakes we can never be a successful trader.
  • #674
  • Edited 6:38am Aug 21, 2020 5:59am | Edited 6:38am
The market is random depending on which timeframe you refer to.

Will EURUSD be down this time next year? Yes. Will US Indices be up? Yes.

Will EURUSD be down or up within the 10m, 1hr or 1d? Nobody knows. If you think IB traders know, then someone needs to tell my trader friend at Goldmans who's currently trapped in EURUSD shorts from lower levels.

Short term price is reactive. HFT, market makers and retail clients constantly push the markets around while a hunt for liquidity takes control, until institutional levels are met and agendas are followed (driven by bullshit news as an excuse). If you are a day trader you have to be able to establish a daily bias and trade with the trend, otherwise you will lose. If you have deep pockets and know the fundamentals, of course, you could sit in deep drawdown ... but nobody here can.

Weekly trends are more reliable than daily, fyi.
  • #675
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:04am Aug 21, 2020 6:04am
Hi guys,

The market is stochastic, not random.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Random
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic

BR
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #676
  • Aug 21, 2020 7:29am Aug 21, 2020 7:29am
Quoting Neogenesis
The market is random depending on which timeframe you refer to. Will EURUSD be down this time next year? Yes. Will US Indices be up? Yes. Will EURUSD be down or up within the 10m, 1hr or 1d? Nobody knows. If you think IB traders know, then someone needs to tell my trader friend at Goldmans who's currently trapped in EURUSD shorts from lower levels. Short term price is reactive. HFT, market makers and retail clients constantly push the markets around while a hunt for liquidity takes control, until institutional levels are met and agendas are...
Try again.

The market structure with time-based plots is fractal-like. Therefore, if you claim one TF is random, then all TFs are random. The experiment has already been done of placing several plots containing no units on the scales in front of traders and having them assign TFs to them. Results: random assignments. Conclusion: It is impossible to determine the TF of a plot without scales displayed. Hence, whatever pattern or structure that you have decided that you see in one TF, it is in every TF.

Establishing a daily bias and then trading that on lower TFs is only successful part of the time. Limiting your bias to any single TF without evaluating all of the intermediate TFs is like going into battle when only 1 scout has reported in.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #677
  • Aug 21, 2020 7:53am Aug 21, 2020 7:53am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Limiting your bias to any single TF without evaluating all of the intermediate TFs is like going into battle when only 1 scout has reported in.
Very well said that is also why you want to be aware of the bigger weekly statistical frequencies

The problem that most traders face is they can only see the obvious AFTER the fact. Hindsight is 20/20 and they can never see clearly on the Hard Right Edge

Statistical trading fixes this problem
  • #678
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:22am Aug 21, 2020 8:22am
Hey Guys and Gals sorry for not posting much in the thread but diligently working on my EA this is where I am at with it using hourly signals and daily and weekly frequency distributions. It is not exactly a large sample size but it still is a work in progress.

Also, my challenge is suffering a little bit because I am spending so much time working on the EA but still on the right track.
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  • #679
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:26am Aug 21, 2020 8:26am
US30 with CeeSo persentage Lines on 1 min chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #680
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:29am Aug 21, 2020 8:29am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Try again. The market structure with time-based plots is fractal-like. Therefore, if you claim one TF is random, then all TFs are random. The experiment has already been done of placing several plots containing no units on the scales in front of traders and having them assign TFs to them. Results: random assignments. Conclusion: It is impossible to determine the TF of a plot without scales displayed. Hence, whatever pattern or structure that you have decided that you see in one TF, it is in every TF. Establishing a daily bias and then trading...
Internet forums, must remind myself not to post.

See what I said re US indices a year from now, EURUSD a year from now. I wasn't saying don't trade multi-time frames, I was saying what happens in the next 10 mins, 1 hour or one day can be totally random.
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