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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #681
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:39am Aug 21, 2020 8:39am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Internet forums, must remind myself not to post. See what I said re US indices a year from now, EURUSD a year from now. I wasn't saying don't trade multi-time frames, I was saying what happens in the next 10 mins, 1 hour or one day can be totally random.
And I said that due to the fractal-like nature of financial time series, if you determine what happens in the next X minutes is random, then on any other TF or some elapsed time (seconds, minutes, Hours, days, weeks, etc.) must also be random.

So if you insist that what happens in the next 1 hour, 1 day can be totally random, then the same applies to 1 year, 5 years, 100 years from now: RANDOM!
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #682
  • Edited 9:01am Aug 21, 2020 8:41am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Internet forums, must remind myself not to post. See what I said re US indices a year from now, EURUSD a year from now. I wasn't saying don't trade multi-time frames, I was saying what happens in the next 10 mins, 1 hour or one day can be totally random.
No need not to post. Just get your discourse in order before presenting it.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #683
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:49am Aug 21, 2020 8:49am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} And I said that due to the fractal-like nature of financial time series, if you determine what happens in the next X minutes is random, then on any other TF or some elapsed time (seconds, minutes, Hours, days, weeks, etc.) must also be random. So if you insist that what happens in the next 1 hour, 1 day can be totally random, then the same applies to 1 year, 5 years, 100 years from now: RANDOM!
Oh right, in which case I misunderstood the reply.

I wont spend any further time debating this (no inclination), but this is where maths/physics/logic doesn't align with reality. Case in point, US indices drop 50% - Fed initiate QE unlimited, provide mass liquidity and the market climbs to ATHs. Is this random? No. Institutions have agendas.

FX, Swiss pegging - we all know what happened.

I have worked in banking long enough to know that markets have a pre-determined agenda, for a myriad of reasons. Ever sat inside a bank and seen a regulator stipulate that you can't short certain stocks? While quite frankly, they would happily let others crash and burn? I have... it's not random. Don't even get me started on FX.
  • #684
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:51am Aug 21, 2020 8:51am
I even tried the Persentage levels on the Week openprice as on this chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CeeSo_us30_week.png Size: 53 KB
  • #685
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:58am Aug 21, 2020 8:58am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Oh right, in which case I misunderstood the reply. I wont spend any further time debating this (no inclination), but this is where maths/physics/logic doesn't align with reality. Case in point, US indices drop 50% - Fed initiate QE unlimited, provide mass liquidity and the market climbs to ATHs. Is this random? No. Institutions have agendas. FX, Swiss pegging - we all know what happened. I have worked in banking long enough to know that markets have a pre-determined agenda, for a myriad of reasons. Ever sat inside a bank and seen a regulator...
And so, your decision that at least one timeframe is NOT random, then, due to the fractal-like nature of the financial time series, ALL timeframes are likewise NOT random, despite your previous statement that small TFs, such as 1 minute ARE random.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #686
  • Aug 21, 2020 9:00am Aug 21, 2020 9:00am
Quoting FibFork
I even tried the Persentage levels on the Week openprice as on this chart {image}
And did you come to any conclusions, or simply plotted the levels and enjoyed the artwork?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #687
  • Aug 21, 2020 9:12am Aug 21, 2020 9:12am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} And so, your decision that at least one timeframe is NOT random, then, due to the fractal-like nature of the financial time series, ALL timeframes are likewise NOT random, despite your previous statement that small TFs, such as 1 minute ARE random.
Are we agreeing or disagreeing, I am not sure?! LOL

I think my use of the word timeframe is poor. I mean time horizon. A 1min chart with enough data reflects the same as a 1D or 1W chart. I'm kinda lost in what you are saying and let's can it here, but there is a non-random agenda over a long term horizon. Central banks, institutions don't care what happens much over the course of a day and will let HFTs, RobinHood traders etc. run wild, which produces all sorts of random outcomes short-term.
  • #688
  • Aug 21, 2020 9:57am Aug 21, 2020 9:57am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} And did you come to any conclusions, or simply plotted the levels and enjoyed the artwork?
Conclusion: Patterns are the same through out all TF's
  • #689
  • Aug 21, 2020 10:40am Aug 21, 2020 10:40am
I keep asking for trade explorers and getting none. Only people talking !! Empty talks. This forum is just full of losing traders.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #690
  • Aug 21, 2020 11:03am Aug 21, 2020 11:03am
yeah, and talking about "trillion position size from banks", weekly timeframes, lucky no entrance because "here I was sleeping" etc.

Let's return to the thread. I have tried this logic: do not enter longs under zero line, do not enter shorts over zero line. Or open them, but with main trend in mind. Also there are several zones like Zone 1 = 0 - +0.25, so each zone has "do not enter" "setting" too. What can I say: I was filtering trend/no trend with MA order, they must be correct (one under one not messed and crossed). But sometimes they are good in that 0-0.25 range, but this is obviously a flat. So this approach make sense and now signals are better filtered.
But you need to have a signals and main trend filters, because just crossing the zone/level is not enough since it can bounce and reverse.

About TPs. Near the Zone level is ok. If level appear and position is in profit I often prefer to close.

About zero line calculations. I was thinking to start calculations with MA, not the candle open price. Because last hours on forex are very laggy with a big spreads and the data is smth like incorrect. But I think this is not so necessary to be very accurate with zero line.

BTW for crypto, if anyone trade it x2 is good for BTC and x3 for ETH etc. Works exactly the same way. Just need to find correct multiplier.
And here I'm stuck a little. I like statistics and maths. I don't like luck/casio/faith etc. 0.25% step is not a math. It is like 100p TP. Why 100? Why not 87? Why 0.25% and not 0.21%? So may be there is any good idea how to dynamically calculate them?

P.S. I'm trading only 1m tfs. There is no difference between 1m, 1h or week. Lower tf = lower DD. If you can trade 1m you can trade.
Observer effect
  • #691
  • Aug 21, 2020 11:32am Aug 21, 2020 11:32am
Quoting BraBoss
{quote} Conclusion: Patterns are the same through out all TF's
Exactly. If you hide the scales on your chart so you do not know the TF, you will see the same patterns on every plot that you look at.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #692
  • Aug 21, 2020 11:33am Aug 21, 2020 11:33am
Quoting Rennaissance
I keep asking for trade explorers and getting none. Only people talking !! Empty talks. This forum is just full of losing traders.
So then why do you continue here? Did someone tie you to a chair loaded with explosives that has a pressure trigger in the seat that if you get up, it blows?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #693
  • Aug 21, 2020 11:40am Aug 21, 2020 11:40am
Quoting ryuryu
y I like statistics and maths. I don't like luck/casio/faith etc. 0.25% step is not a math. It is like 100p TP. Why 100? Why not 87? Why 0.25% and not 0.21%? So may be there is any good idea how to dynamically calculate them? P.S. I'm trading only 1m tfs. There is no difference between 1m, 1h or week. Lower tf = lower DD. If you can trade 1m you can trade.
Those steps are the math (probability related) from the distribution curve.

You comment makes me think that even though you say that you like statistics, you don't have much experience with it.

And, unless there is evidence that the distribution changes significantly over a relatively short time span, then it is pointless to have a dynamic calculation, other than to have more points in the data set.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #694
  • Aug 21, 2020 11:43am Aug 21, 2020 11:43am
I think the market is not random, it just seems to be. For example, we do not know the distribution of demand and supply, and the big boys can enter the market at any time.
big money moves the market and its footprints are very hard to spot.
  • #695
  • Aug 21, 2020 12:30pm Aug 21, 2020 12:30pm
Quoting FibFork
I even tried the Persentage levels on the Week openprice as on this chart {image}

This thread has become filled with a bunch of egos of people's cognitive biases that feel threatened by math LOL.

So congrats to you for just doing the exercise and discovering for yourself the truth. It is amazing what people can learn from just shutting their mouths and doing the hard work on their own
  • #696
  • Aug 21, 2020 12:50pm Aug 21, 2020 12:50pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} doing the hard work on their own
This the the stumbling block.

Even after you delivered the first part on a silver platter.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #697
  • Aug 21, 2020 12:52pm Aug 21, 2020 12:52pm
Quoting tiborf71
I think the market is not random, it just seems to be. For example, we do not know the distribution of demand and supply, and the big boys can enter the market at any time. big money moves the market and its footprints are very hard to spot.
Actually, whether the market movement is random or not, if the distribution presented proves to be an edge, that is all that matters.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #698
  • Aug 21, 2020 1:42pm Aug 21, 2020 1:42pm
The debate of market randomness continues......
It's my belief that the market is random, but it's random with occasional Levy Flight! In other words the market moves in a random like fashon for a period of time, then moves in one direction for another period of time. I've come to find than some think that randomness is a series of ups and downs, it's not! Toss a coin 100 times and you'll get a lot of series of heads or tails, in fact as many as eleven at once, series of fives or sixes are quite common.

But it doesnt really matter what you believe, as long as markets move.

https://www.remek.ca/random-chart-generator
  • #699
  • Aug 21, 2020 3:23pm Aug 21, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} This thread has become filled with a bunch of egos of people's cognitive biases that feel threatened by math LOL. So congrats to you for just doing the exercise and discovering for yourself the truth. It is amazing what people can learn from just shutting their mouths and doing the hard work on their own
Here is the thing Ceeso,
When you started the thread there were high expectations and a lot were expecting a step by step guide into your success. It was not to be and I guess many are disappointed by it, well it turns out that you are not obliged to share any of it. I do not hold any grudges and I am happy at the point I am at. Yes, I can talk about the dopamine rush and addiction you have experienced. It is in all of us and we don't realize it. I never realized it until I saw your post, take away at least.
The thread is turning into a circus of random and non-random. It makes no difference. You can either trade or you cannot. Traders need to realize this when they enter FX. Traders need to find their own mojo.

Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #700
  • Edited 4:26pm Aug 21, 2020 3:53pm | Edited 4:26pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Those steps are the math (probability related) from the distribution curve. You comment makes me think that even though you say that you like statistics, you don't have much experience with it.
I don't have much experience with statistics for sure. But could you please explain why we use 0.25%? For EURUSD 0.25% is a long way, but 0.25% for GBPUSD is 1 minute run. For example for BTCUSD you must multiply on 2, for ETHUSD at least on 3, or it will make no sense - those lines will be too close. That's what I'm talking about.

For example today 1440 atr at 1m chart:
EU - 20
GU - 26
UC - 16
UJ - 15

Then it make sence, if we use then like % (step), so 0.2%, 0.26%, 0.16% and 0.15%. Also the zones can be dynamically changed with new atr data. This will make sense and this is math, instead of 0.25% for all.
Observer effect
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