Rejections spur me for greatness!!!
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Cable Update - Continued 102 replies
Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies
Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 23 replies
Why is GBPUSD called cable? 66 replies
cable short for gbpusd? 6 replies
Disliked... I'm guessing that most of us are going I to the new week flat (ie no open positions,?) so have no vested interest in what price may do. All we know from our own respective analysis is what is probable, but even with that we should still remain open-minded and trade what we see not what we think is going to happen. If PA bears out our w/e respective analysis of what is most probable - so be it. If it does not - so be it. For intraday swing traders like me - all we do is work out where the strongest areas of potential support or resistance may...Ignored
DislikedHere is my view for next week. Weekly chart is bearish, and looking at money managment and hedge fund they are short too. For my opinion the fundamental for the long view regarding uk and usa didnt change. Last week he had some important news form usa (payroll) and uk ( bank of england) and the next week there is gdp and unemployement rate for uk and if they miss the expectation for one of that or both we could see a strong move down. Technical analysis call for retracement and rsi in 4h has a strong divergence. Statistically ( past...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I agree with your post other than the underlined above.....Maybe you meant to say that the weekly candle is bearish ? My own analysis of the wkly chart as a whole is replicated below. Wkly No fractal swing is created by the close of this week's weekly candle with a 3185 hi just 15 pips above last week’s hi. It closed with a small bearish body and a longer upper wick than lower. The last few fractal swings since and including 1411 lo are L, LH,HL,H,LH, L, H, HL, LH and what will become a HH when it forms. So this t/f is still in a general...Ignored
DislikedHi friends)! Gu, I think with probability 85-90% will going down to 1.30 Short-term trend down, then was pullback to fibo 50% after NFP's move, and forming flag's figure. Then need to watch for 1.30 is the key price maybe bounce and down again maybe bounce and continue going up now i sell, my tp 1.30 maybe wrong {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} No, i meant that with the weekly timeframe the currency is still bearish ( as long as wont cross the 200ma with new high and high lows)Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think that's the shortcoming of using a longer setting moving average on any t/f to assess conditions - ie on this wkly t/f price has had a strong bullish move up of 1411 to 3180 = 1669pips but still remains under the 200 ma and hence by this measure it is still bearish?Ignored
Disliked{quote} just out of curiosity, how did you calculate that 85-90% probability?Ignored
Disliked{quote} 3 reasons from the description above: 1) short term downtrend 2) big NFP move with 50% Fibonacci retracement after 3) figure's flag this gives me some confidence in going down to 1.30. But I cannot claim that it will be 100% We know that in the markets there is no 100% probability and certainty of any move. I've never met people who always say exactly where the price will go. I also admit that I could be wrong.Ignored
Disliked{quote} That did not answer my question. If you can’t calculate the probability based on some formula, its better to say "more likely"Ignored
Disliked{quote} 100% probability 1.short-term trend + 50% of 100% (50%) 2.Fibo rollback by 50% + 50% of the remaining 50% probability (75%) 3. flag pattern + another 50% of the remaining 25% probability (87.5%). That's better? or is it better to say "more likely", buddy? you may be right, but I say as it is more convenient for me. And i described my vision of the situation. You can accept it, you can don't accept it, you can continue to cling to the words, buddy) Talk is over. Trade safe)Ignored
Disliked{quote} Ok, I have nothing against your analysis. But you ever traded options, you would know the probability calculation of a certain move over a certain period of time has a formula based on the volatility of that instrument. I posted this before, but you might have not seen it. for example, for GU, the probability of a greater than 67 pips move to the down side is 49% over the next 24 hours. I'm not saying this is always the case, but at least gives you a framework. {image}Ignored
DislikedWe opened with a gap up. i see us retracing down to 3010 then up. GBP chart is however interesting, and Gold seems set to retreat.Ignored