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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #541,681
  • Aug 9, 2020 9:57am Aug 9, 2020 9:57am
Quoting navk
for the bears 1.3000 as well as 1.3100 seems to me important.
Monday - Tuesday will determine these two levels. Minimum expected Monday - Tuesday range is 130 pips which should break either of these zones. A break of either zones without retracement will show clarity of where the price will end this week. Should 1.3000 low gets attacked and price bounces off significantly then 1.3180 level will be attacked again which will expose 1.3220 area, the reverse scenario is if price fails to break 1.3100 then 1.2850 is imminent. The latter scenario looks more likely to me and so much focus on these two levels will decide the outcome.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #541,682
  • Aug 9, 2020 10:19am Aug 9, 2020 10:19am
My take. A single large bear Daily candle does not make a bear trend.
GBPUSD, broke below short term rising trendline and that is very bearish. But price can also morph into possible bullish flag/channel (green colour lines).
The 1.32 zone of confluence of LH and falling trendline is visually obvious, is like a magnet and likely have lots of orders there to trigger.
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  • #541,683
  • Aug 9, 2020 10:38am Aug 9, 2020 10:38am
For Monday :

s1 is 2989
r1 is 3130
pivot is 3070

IMO, it should fall below 3070 to test s1

The levels may change after open.
Intraday only.
  • #541,684
  • Edited 12:02pm Aug 9, 2020 10:58am | Edited 12:02pm
... I'm guessing that most of us are going into the new week flat (ie no open positions,?) so have no vested interest in what price may do. All we know from our own respective analysis is what is probable, but even with that we should still remain open-minded and trade what we see not what we think is going to happen. If PA bears out our w/e respective analysis of what is most probable - so be it. If it does not - so be it. For intraday swing traders like me - all we do is work out where the strongest areas of potential support or resistance may be and update the analysis as price discovery takes place.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,685
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:12am Aug 9, 2020 11:12am
I love the level of planning and chart reading, but just be careful that you don't study yourself into a bias. For me if I study the charts too much I tend to formulate a plan I KNOW will come true. Then a few signs appear that I am on the right track... Followed by 10 signs that I am not.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #541,686
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:14am Aug 9, 2020 11:14am
Quoting Headland
... I'm guessing that most of us are going I to the new week flat (ie no open positions,?) so have no vested interest in what price may do. All we know from our own respective analysis is what is probable, but even with that we should still remain open-minded and trade what we see not what we think is going to happen. If PA bears out our w/e respective analysis of what is most probable - so be it. If it does not - so be it. For intraday swing traders like me - all we do is work out where the strongest areas of potential support or resistance may...

I still have a few open. I closed everything in profit when the market went flat, but I get what you mean. My sentiment is flat.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #541,687
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:15am Aug 9, 2020 11:15am
Quoting Bacco
Here is my view for next week. Weekly chart is bearish, and looking at money managment and hedge fund they are short too. For my opinion the fundamental for the long view regarding uk and usa didnt change. Last week he had some important news form usa (payroll) and uk ( bank of england) and the next week there is gdp and unemployement rate for uk and if they miss the expectation for one of that or both we could see a strong move down. Technical analysis call for retracement and rsi in 4h has a strong divergence. Statistically ( past...
I agree with your post other than the underlined above.....Maybe you meant to say that the weekly candle is bearish ? My own analysis of the wkly chart as a whole is replicated below.

Wkly No fractal swing is created by the close of this week's weekly candle with a 3185 hi just 15 pips above last week’s hi. It closed with a small bearish body and a longer upper wick than lower. The last few fractal swings since and including 1411 lo are L, LH,HL,H,LH, L, H, HL, LH and what will become a HH when it forms. So this t/f is still in a general fractal uptrend but like the monthly the 100/50/20 ema's all remain crossed down.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,688
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:28am Aug 9, 2020 11:28am
Quoting Headland
{quote} I agree with your post other than the underlined above.....Maybe you meant to say that the weekly candle is bearish ? My own analysis of the wkly chart as a whole is replicated below. Wkly No fractal swing is created by the close of this week's weekly candle with a 3185 hi just 15 pips above last week’s hi. It closed with a small bearish body and a longer upper wick than lower. The last few fractal swings since and including 1411 lo are L, LH,HL,H,LH, L, H, HL, LH and what will become a HH when it forms. So this t/f is still in a general...
No, i meant that with the weekly timeframe the currency is still bearish ( as long as wont cross the 200ma with new high and high lows)
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #541,689
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:39am Aug 9, 2020 11:39am
Quoting vowan4ik
Hi friends)! Gu, I think with probability 85-90% will going down to 1.30 Short-term trend down, then was pullback to fibo 50% after NFP's move, and forming flag's figure. Then need to watch for 1.30 is the key price maybe bounce and down again maybe bounce and continue going up now i sell, my tp 1.30 maybe wrong {image}
just out of curiosity, how did you calculate that 85-90% probability?
  • #541,690
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:47am Aug 9, 2020 11:47am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} No, i meant that with the weekly timeframe the currency is still bearish ( as long as wont cross the 200ma with new high and high lows)

I think that's the shortcoming of using a longer setting moving average on any t/f to assess conditions - ie on this wkly t/f price has had a strong bullish move up of 1411 to 3180 = 1669pips but still remains under the 200 ma and hence by this measure it is still bearish?
Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,691
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:56am Aug 9, 2020 11:56am
Quoting Headland
{quote} I think that's the shortcoming of using a longer setting moving average on any t/f to assess conditions - ie on this wkly t/f price has had a strong bullish move up of 1411 to 3180 = 1669pips but still remains under the 200 ma and hence by this measure it is still bearish?

You are right too, let see what the next week will bring...
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #541,692
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:59am Aug 9, 2020 11:59am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} just out of curiosity, how did you calculate that 85-90% probability?
3 reasons from the description above:
1) short term downtrend
2) big NFP move with 50% Fibonacci retracement after
3) figure's flag
this gives me some confidence in going down to 1.30.
But I cannot claim that it will be 100%
We know that in the markets there is no 100% probability and certainty of any move. I've never met people who always say exactly where the price will go.
I also admit that I could be wrong.
Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #541,693
  • Aug 9, 2020 12:04pm Aug 9, 2020 12:04pm
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} 3 reasons from the description above: 1) short term downtrend 2) big NFP move with 50% Fibonacci retracement after 3) figure's flag this gives me some confidence in going down to 1.30. But I cannot claim that it will be 100% We know that in the markets there is no 100% probability and certainty of any move. I've never met people who always say exactly where the price will go. I also admit that I could be wrong.
That did not answer my question. If you can’t calculate the probability based on some formula, its better to say "more likely"
  • #541,694
  • Aug 9, 2020 12:18pm Aug 9, 2020 12:18pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That did not answer my question. If you can’t calculate the probability based on some formula, its better to say "more likely"
100% probability
1.short-term trend + 50% of 100% (50%)
2.Fibo rollback by 50% + 50% of the remaining 50% probability (75%)
3. flag pattern + another 50% of the remaining 25% probability (87.5%).
That's better? or is it better to say "more likely", buddy?
you may be right, but I say as it is more convenient for me. And i described my vision of the situation. You can accept it, you can don't accept it, you can continue to cling to the words, buddy)
Talk is over.
Trade safe)
Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #541,695
  • Aug 9, 2020 12:33pm Aug 9, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} 100% probability 1.short-term trend + 50% of 100% (50%) 2.Fibo rollback by 50% + 50% of the remaining 50% probability (75%) 3. flag pattern + another 50% of the remaining 25% probability (87.5%). That's better? or is it better to say "more likely", buddy? you may be right, but I say as it is more convenient for me. And i described my vision of the situation. You can accept it, you can don't accept it, you can continue to cling to the words, buddy) Talk is over. Trade safe)
Ok, I have nothing against your analysis. But you ever traded options, you would know the probability calculation of a certain move over a certain period of time has a formula based on the volatility of that instrument. I posted this before, but you might have not seen it. for example, for GU, the probability of a greater than 67 pips move to the down side is 49% over the next 24 hours. I'm not saying this is always the case, but at least gives you a framework.
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  • #541,696
  • Aug 9, 2020 12:44pm Aug 9, 2020 12:44pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Ok, I have nothing against your analysis. But you ever traded options, you would know the probability calculation of a certain move over a certain period of time has a formula based on the volatility of that instrument. I posted this before, but you might have not seen it. for example, for GU, the probability of a greater than 67 pips move to the down side is 49% over the next 24 hours. I'm not saying this is always the case, but at least gives you a framework. {image}
I'm talking about a 53-point move with no time reference.
Therefore, my formula is very simple. Either it will or not.
If at least one of the above conditions does not work, then it is not "more likely".
Thanks also for your clarification. Noted something usefull for myself.
Green pips, mate)!
Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #541,697
  • Edited 3:53pm Aug 9, 2020 1:57pm | Edited 3:53pm
Popcorn time
  • #541,698
  • Aug 9, 2020 4:00pm Aug 9, 2020 4:00pm
The bullish move on the GBPUSD market is stalling having entered the 1.31910 area, which is the origin of the strong bearish drop in March, and bearish pressure is increasing. Here's my take on the GBPUSD from the technical perspective of a swing trader. On the daily time frame, there is bearish pressure given the ‘wicky’ candlestick prints in the last five days, and this was enhanced by the bearish print on Friday. However, technically, price action is still sideways within a horizontal channel spanned by 1.31910 and 1.29740. A significant bearish breakdown of the 1.29740 area may further embolden sellers to target lower levels, such as the 1.27730 area. This, of course, does not rule out the necessary technical corrective moves. Presently, price action is disposed bearish and located at the 1.30518 area. I will await how price action handles the 1.31910/1.29740 zone in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #541,699
  • Aug 9, 2020 4:07pm Aug 9, 2020 4:07pm
We opened with a gap up. i see us retracing down to 3010 then up. GBP chart is however interesting, and Gold seems set to retreat.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #541,700
  • Aug 9, 2020 4:15pm Aug 9, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
We opened with a gap up. i see us retracing down to 3010 then up. GBP chart is however interesting, and Gold seems set to retreat.
I see you are banking on what happened on the 20th of July.
This scenario maybe different..........
Patience.....
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