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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,841
  • May 29, 2020 10:35am May 29, 2020 10:35am
Quoting tehnoob
{quote} On my hourly charts, It didn't paint a bearish engulfing. And if it had, I wouldn't rush to fade it just because of the candle. I took the trade long because of where the price had dived, and mostly because it offered a good risk -reward for the potential spike up trade that I just posted in the daily timeframes. That's why I was looking for an opportunity to buy at those levels. The fact that it was trying to reach last week's low was just an extra hint that, in this narrow range and given the Tokyo session was ending, it was a good idea...
I am referring to this.. although I can see your point as there are no bullish candles to the left of it.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,842
  • May 29, 2020 10:40am May 29, 2020 10:40am
That's it. Long, big, not in traffic of other candles, at and the bottom of a multi-day narrow range

Beautiful

Notice how you didn't have to jump right away on this one. For several more hours after it, the price just stalled at that level. Buying the break of the high of that small bullish candle 8 hours later offered a good set up of risk reward. Stop loss a bit below said candle, or a bit below those hourly lows, depending on preference for risk, and target at least a few multiples of that stop loss (and, if you 're gunning for a spike like I am, more than that)! It's like with property: location, location, location!
  • #82,843
  • May 29, 2020 10:48am May 29, 2020 10:48am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
With all being said.... This is an interesting move north. Let's review. Thursday Morning the US had bad Economic news. The chart languished all day until the Japanese news came out yesterday evening, and... It was good for JPY. So Bad, US news nothing. Good Jpy news later.. Movement. Fast forward to today. More Economic news. More of it bad, and the chart shows a parabolic 1hr candle. Powell is on deck to speak though, so let's see what he does to the market. 1hr candle showed the end of the run down, but perhaps a revisit to it's lows? One would...
that makes me realise I haven't read a single line of news all day today.

Except for some gossip news from back in my country, lol.
  • #82,844
  • May 29, 2020 10:55am May 29, 2020 10:55am
The movement of USD/JPY today has allowed me to raise my Stop loss to the entry price. So no capital at risk. I will have to hold this over the weekend in the expectation of the spike, but now it's a capital-free punt.

The price can very well reverse and take me out, but no loss, other than the unrealised profits of this position, which I am willing to risk here because of the grander goal I am betting on.

Nothing is certain in markets. When you've spent more than 2 decades with your poor eyeballs looking at charts for hours every day, including weekends, your perception of the range of just what the market CAN do, expands dramatically.

The USD/JPY daily candle is looking to close as a so called bullish hammer. You think it could be a huge TRAP for bulls, who want to go long with stops just below it's low?

Of course it could!!
  • #82,845
  • May 29, 2020 11:57am May 29, 2020 11:57am
Quoting tehnoob
The movement of USD/JPY today has allowed me to raise my Stop loss to the entry price. So no capital at risk. I will have to hold this over the weekend in the expectation of the spike, but now it's a capital-free punt. The price can very well reverse and take me out, but no loss, other than the unrealised profits of this position, which I am willing to risk here because of the grander goal I am betting on. Nothing is certain in markets. When you've spent more than 2 decades with your poor eyeballs looking at charts for hours every day, including...
4hr parabolic. Dow took a hit on that news but will recover imo... Friday of a three day streak. Also. possible flag on the thirty. Profits are profits I am told.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,846
  • May 29, 2020 12:10pm May 29, 2020 12:10pm
Bad US vs China news. Tensions up. All bets are off. lol
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,847
  • May 30, 2020 12:21am May 30, 2020 12:21am
End of the month , complete reset of mindset. I am completely open to where UJ might want to go.
  • #82,848
  • May 30, 2020 6:03am May 30, 2020 6:03am
8 days of tight consolidation (inside bars) and Friday's false downside breakout, we are ready to march towards 109.00

Friday's low also compliments 107.00 zone as a valid support

Buy 107.80
SL 107.07 (-72 pips)

TP1 108.40 (+60 pips)
TP2 109.00 (+120 pips)
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  • #82,849
  • May 30, 2020 6:17am May 30, 2020 6:17am
Quoting amikaking
8 days of tight consolidation (inside bars) and Friday's false downside breakout, we are ready to march towards 109.00 Friday's low also compliments 107.00 zone as a valid support Buy 107.80 SL 107.07 (-72 pips) TP1 108.40 (+60 pips) TP2 109.00 (+120 pips) {image}
Might be worth waiting for it to hit the resistance
  • #82,850
  • May 30, 2020 10:56am May 30, 2020 10:56am
Friday not was good for the bears, and maybe the market is going to up again. 108 will be the point were i'll change my view and start to buy.
but 107.4 still is showing to me an possibility to sell. Well, the next week wil show the direction.

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  • #82,851
  • May 30, 2020 5:34pm May 30, 2020 5:34pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
With all being said.... This is an interesting move north. Let's review. Thursday Morning the US had bad Economic news. The chart languished all day until the Japanese news came out yesterday evening, and... It was good for JPY. So Bad, US news nothing. Good Jpy news later.. Movement. Fast forward to today. More Economic news. More of it bad, and the chart shows a parabolic 1hr candle. Powell is on deck to speak though, so let's see what he does to the market. 1hr candle showed the end of the run down, but perhaps a revisit to it's lows? One would...
What we can do is trade into the news
I was long Gold for 48 hours going into Tump's speech.
This speech had the worlds attention.....
And if its worth it -trade out of it
Charts etc...form the last bit- first is determining is there an opportunity
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #82,852
  • May 30, 2020 8:18pm May 30, 2020 8:18pm
Quoting palpite
Friday not was good for the bears, and maybe the market is going to up again. 108 will be the point were i'll change my view and start to buy. but 107.4 still is showing to me an possibility to sell. Well, the next week wil show the direction. {image}
I find it interesting that the USD had a pretty bearish week yet the JPY did not follow.

AUD NZD CAD all took the initial USD move on Mon and Tues but stalled the rest of the week.

USD at support to a minor degree and thus I expect that the USD bulls might have a favorable chance this week.

And based on the news that is going on it might appear that risk off might be favored as well.
  • #82,853
  • May 31, 2020 2:54pm May 31, 2020 2:54pm
Waiting for JPY to be dumped like there is no tomorrow

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #82,854
  • May 31, 2020 3:07pm May 31, 2020 3:07pm
If you are tracking USDJPY this week, consider this technical perspective from a swing trader. The USDJPY has been sideways for quite a while. On the daily time frame, the candlesticks recently printed are primarily mixed and relatively small, indicating a consolidating market, and primarily within the 107.090/108.000 horizontal channel (blue). Although bulls have a slight edge, we should await a breakout of price action from the channel before committing to a directional trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #82,855
  • May 31, 2020 3:10pm May 31, 2020 3:10pm
A breakout or a spikefake-out xD
  • #82,856
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:30am Jun 1, 2020 1:30am
107.4216 is my next area to stack my BUYS..

Have a wonderful week guys..
StaySafe
  • #82,857
  • Jun 1, 2020 3:17am Jun 1, 2020 3:17am
i'm in
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  • #82,858
  • Jun 1, 2020 6:26am Jun 1, 2020 6:26am
Inverted USDJPY chart

JPY/USD = Head and Shoulder forming

108.00 served as the neckline

Head is around 200 pips, possible 110.00 coming

I choose to TP safely at 109.30 swing high of 6th April

Good luck
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  • #82,859
  • Jun 1, 2020 6:51am Jun 1, 2020 6:51am
Quoting dondealova
i'm in {image}
Me too long since 107.463 and just moved stop loss to break even. Will take profit at 107.9
  • #82,860
  • Edited 7:57am Jun 1, 2020 7:33am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting tehnoob
A breakout or a spikefake-out xD
Still working your "last man standing" candle. I have noticed something and want your input on it. I have noticed that once the area is set by that engulfing one, that going forward for price to stop in that area the engulfing candle is no longer necessary. As if they have already marked the area. It can catch you because when price doesn't show that final candle you think maybe it is going further. I am still working on the formation for when it breaks the defined area. Any thoughts?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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