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USD/JPY Discussion

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  • Post #82,841
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  • May 29, 2020 11:33am May 29, 2020 11:33am
  •  tehnoob
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Member | 478 Posts
Quoting krdb11
Disliked
{quote} Great advice! Thank you. Would it be rash to buy into it before market close for the weekend? (Still relatively new to this)
Ignored
Well it depends how much you're willing to trade and potentially lose.

I was willing to risk buying at the bottom of the last few days' range because

- I like buying near the bottom of ranges, expecting them to hold
- I could place a very small stop-loss (just a few pips, a bit below the low of last week) while still using enough leverage to make decent $ either at the top of the range of, even better after a potential spike.

If I were to buy now, I'd be doing to in the expectation of a spike up/bullish breakout from the range, but my stop loss would have to be at the same level as before, only now that's more than 65 pips or 70 pips. For me personally, that's too big a stop loss for my usual position size.

I can and do accept such stop losses occasionally, but If I do, I reduce my position size so that the % of capital I am risking with such SLoss is no more than the % of capital I would risk with my standard position and a 15 pips stop loss.
That's why personally I prefer to look for prices where I think I can use small stop losses and aim for a good risk/potential reward.

Everything begins with how much you are comfortably willing to risk, which means to potentially lose.
 
 
  • Post #82,842
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  • May 29, 2020 11:35am May 29, 2020 11:35am
  •  OBsayMkMoney
  • Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 1,715 Posts
Quoting tehnoob
Disliked
{quote} On my hourly charts, It didn't paint a bearish engulfing. And if it had, I wouldn't rush to fade it just because of the candle. I took the trade long because of where the price had dived, and mostly because it offered a good risk -reward for the potential spike up trade that I just posted in the daily timeframes. That's why I was looking for an opportunity to buy at those levels. The fact that it was trying to reach last week's low was just an extra hint that, in this narrow range and given the Tokyo session was ending, it was a good idea...
Ignored
I am referring to this.. although I can see your point as there are no bullish candles to the left of it.
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When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
 
 
  • Post #82,843
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  • May 29, 2020 11:40am May 29, 2020 11:40am
  •  tehnoob
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Member | 478 Posts
That's it. Long, big, not in traffic of other candles, at and the bottom of a multi-day narrow range

Beautiful

Notice how you didn't have to jump right away on this one. For several more hours after it, the price just stalled at that level. Buying the break of the high of that small bullish candle 8 hours later offered a good set up of risk reward. Stop loss a bit below said candle, or a bit below those hourly lows, depending on preference for risk, and target at least a few multiples of that stop loss (and, if you 're gunning for a spike like I am, more than that)! It's like with property: location, location, location!
 
 
  • Post #82,844
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  • May 29, 2020 11:48am May 29, 2020 11:48am
  •  tehnoob
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Member | 478 Posts
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Disliked
With all being said.... This is an interesting move north. Let's review. Thursday Morning the US had bad Economic news. The chart languished all day until the Japanese news came out yesterday evening, and... It was good for JPY. So Bad, US news nothing. Good Jpy news later.. Movement. Fast forward to today. More Economic news. More of it bad, and the chart shows a parabolic 1hr candle. Powell is on deck to speak though, so let's see what he does to the market. 1hr candle showed the end of the run down, but perhaps a revisit to it's lows? One would...
Ignored
that makes me realise I haven't read a single line of news all day today.

Except for some gossip news from back in my country, lol.
 
 
  • Post #82,845
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  • May 29, 2020 11:55am May 29, 2020 11:55am
  •  tehnoob
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Member | 478 Posts
The movement of USD/JPY today has allowed me to raise my Stop loss to the entry price. So no capital at risk. I will have to hold this over the weekend in the expectation of the spike, but now it's a capital-free punt.

The price can very well reverse and take me out, but no loss, other than the unrealised profits of this position, which I am willing to risk here because of the grander goal I am betting on.

Nothing is certain in markets. When you've spent more than 2 decades with your poor eyeballs looking at charts for hours every day, including weekends, your perception of the range of just what the market CAN do, expands dramatically.

The USD/JPY daily candle is looking to close as a so called bullish hammer. You think it could be a huge TRAP for bulls, who want to go long with stops just below it's low?

Of course it could!!
 
1
  • Post #82,846
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  • May 29, 2020 12:57pm May 29, 2020 12:57pm
  •  OBsayMkMoney
  • Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 1,715 Posts
Quoting tehnoob
Disliked
The movement of USD/JPY today has allowed me to raise my Stop loss to the entry price. So no capital at risk. I will have to hold this over the weekend in the expectation of the spike, but now it's a capital-free punt. The price can very well reverse and take me out, but no loss, other than the unrealised profits of this position, which I am willing to risk here because of the grander goal I am betting on. Nothing is certain in markets. When you've spent more than 2 decades with your poor eyeballs looking at charts for hours every day, including...
Ignored
4hr parabolic. Dow took a hit on that news but will recover imo... Friday of a three day streak. Also. possible flag on the thirty. Profits are profits I am told.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
 
 
  • Post #82,847
  • Quote
  • May 29, 2020 1:10pm May 29, 2020 1:10pm
  •  OBsayMkMoney
  • Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 1,715 Posts
Bad US vs China news. Tensions up. All bets are off. lol
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
 
1
  • Post #82,848
  • Quote
  • May 30, 2020 1:21am May 30, 2020 1:21am
  •  hellsbells
  • Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 970 Posts
End of the month , complete reset of mindset. I am completely open to where UJ might want to go.
 
1
  • Post #82,849
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  • May 30, 2020 7:03am May 30, 2020 7:03am
  •  amikaking
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Wisdom | 399 Posts
8 days of tight consolidation (inside bars) and Friday's false downside breakout, we are ready to march towards 109.00

Friday's low also compliments 107.00 zone as a valid support

Buy 107.80
SL 107.07 (-72 pips)

TP1 108.40 (+60 pips)
TP2 109.00 (+120 pips)
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1
  • Post #82,850
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  • May 30, 2020 7:17am May 30, 2020 7:17am
  •  callumtimmi
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 4 Posts
Quoting amikaking
Disliked
8 days of tight consolidation (inside bars) and Friday's false downside breakout, we are ready to march towards 109.00 Friday's low also compliments 107.00 zone as a valid support Buy 107.80 SL 107.07 (-72 pips) TP1 108.40 (+60 pips) TP2 109.00 (+120 pips) {image}
Ignored
Might be worth waiting for it to hit the resistance
 
1
  • Post #82,851
  • Quote
  • May 30, 2020 11:56am May 30, 2020 11:56am
  •  palpite
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Under Pressure | 3,360 Posts
Friday not was good for the bears, and maybe the market is going to up again. 108 will be the point were i'll change my view and start to buy.
but 107.4 still is showing to me an possibility to sell. Well, the next week wil show the direction.

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Together we can be strongest
 
1
  • Post #82,852
  • Quote
  • May 30, 2020 6:34pm May 30, 2020 6:34pm
  •  SFundamental
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Member | 703 Posts
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Disliked
With all being said.... This is an interesting move north. Let's review. Thursday Morning the US had bad Economic news. The chart languished all day until the Japanese news came out yesterday evening, and... It was good for JPY. So Bad, US news nothing. Good Jpy news later.. Movement. Fast forward to today. More Economic news. More of it bad, and the chart shows a parabolic 1hr candle. Powell is on deck to speak though, so let's see what he does to the market. 1hr candle showed the end of the run down, but perhaps a revisit to it's lows? One would...
Ignored
What we can do is trade into the news
I was long Gold for 48 hours going into Tump's speech.
This speech had the worlds attention.....
And if its worth it -trade out of it
Charts etc...form the last bit- first is determining is there an opportunity
 
 
  • Post #82,853
  • Quote
  • May 30, 2020 9:18pm May 30, 2020 9:18pm
  •  enarco
  • | Joined Feb 2020 | Status: Member | 396 Posts
Quoting palpite
Disliked
Friday not was good for the bears, and maybe the market is going to up again. 108 will be the point were i'll change my view and start to buy. but 107.4 still is showing to me an possibility to sell. Well, the next week wil show the direction. {image}
Ignored
I find it interesting that the USD had a pretty bearish week yet the JPY did not follow.

AUD NZD CAD all took the initial USD move on Mon and Tues but stalled the rest of the week.

USD at support to a minor degree and thus I expect that the USD bulls might have a favorable chance this week.

And based on the news that is going on it might appear that risk off might be favored as well.
 
1
  • Post #82,854
  • Quote
  • May 31, 2020 3:54pm May 31, 2020 3:54pm
  •  kuroro001
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,772 Posts
Waiting for JPY to be dumped like there is no tomorrow

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
 
1
  • Post #82,855
  • Quote
  • May 31, 2020 4:07pm May 31, 2020 4:07pm
  •  KeenPips
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 7,346 Posts
If you are tracking USDJPY this week, consider this technical perspective from a swing trader. The USDJPY has been sideways for quite a while. On the daily time frame, the candlesticks recently printed are primarily mixed and relatively small, indicating a consolidating market, and primarily within the 107.090/108.000 horizontal channel (blue). Although bulls have a slight edge, we should await a breakout of price action from the channel before committing to a directional trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
 
 
  • Post #82,856
  • Quote
  • May 31, 2020 4:10pm May 31, 2020 4:10pm
  •  tehnoob
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Member | 478 Posts
A breakout or a spikefake-out xD
 
 
  • Post #82,857
  • Quote
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:30am Jun 1, 2020 2:30am
  •  JayBag
  • Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,418 Posts
107.4216 is my next area to stack my BUYS..

Have a wonderful week guys..
StaySafe
 
 
  • Post #82,858
  • Quote
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:17am Jun 1, 2020 4:17am
  •  dondealova
  • Joined Jan 2015 | Status: take a peek | 531 Posts
i'm in
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  • Post #82,859
  • Quote
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:26am Jun 1, 2020 7:26am
  •  amikaking
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Wisdom | 399 Posts
Inverted USDJPY chart

JPY/USD = Head and Shoulder forming

108.00 served as the neckline

Head is around 200 pips, possible 110.00 coming

I choose to TP safely at 109.30 swing high of 6th April

Good luck
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  • Post #82,860
  • Quote
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:51am Jun 1, 2020 7:51am
  •  Johankort
  • | Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Member | 21 Posts
Quoting dondealova
Disliked
i'm in {image}
Ignored
Me too long since 107.463 and just moved stop loss to break even. Will take profit at 107.9
 
 
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