Fundamental Trading Journal

Welcome to my thread..... on Forex Trading

My favourite trades are as follows:

a) Buy the rumour -sell the news

b) Change of interest rate bias (with congruent data) by central banks

c) Fresh geopolitical news stories- these typically go on for at least a session

d) Negative/Postive Gamma

e) Gamma scalping

f) Crowded tops/bottoms

f) Book Balancing (usually end of the month stuff)

I will try to only show these types of trades, but won't be describing how certain trades come about

If the banks have to do something......there is nothing to stop me joining in

The main thing is to think like an institutional trader.....

Trading is a solo business...

Cable

Cable has huge value to the upside.
So at some point - Cable is going up.

GB

PMI Services - 12.3 lowest on record- less than 1/2 of the estimate
Retail sales -5.1%
CPI - going down
BOE meeting due on 7th May
Option wise its bearish

PM Johnson - has said that lock-down will still remain in place.
Think the market was hoping for some easing.


US

Recent figures not too bad considering
PMIs and Core durable goods - beat estimates
Estimates - do not seem that bad for this week

FOMC on Wednesday......not sure what else they can do
So overall in the short term I'm slightly more bullish on the dollar

Euro

ECB cash meeting on Wednesday.
This is going to be important

Right Cable is up.

This is mainly been driven by dollar weakness - due to the overnight spat between China and the US
Plus we have a risk on environment.
And there has been some + news from Aus-so this will always help Cable
Plus there is so end of month balancing going on

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kfBBQzEl/

Nice spot to short

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vgy4Bzay/

hopefully, we will get some movement before the US opens up- but need the Aus to join in

Right here is where we stand atm on a daily

I can only think that the market is concerned about the Fed - plus equities have rallied a bit.

On Cable it rallied up to the POC twice - so I can only think that is to get some orders for the sell off
Rabb talking about no freezing of Brexit - not good for the pound

Then a lot will depend on what Jay Powell says. There is talk that he will be throwing more at it -which will obviously help equities and the pound

But some analysts are in wait and see mode

In relation to the pound....we will have or have the highest death rate in Europe shortly. I can only think of more selling atm

Cable is currently off - but expecting a pullback and hopefully further selling this afternoon

Then later on today - I might be positioning for a long, going into the month end tomorrow

There is value to the upside and we might get some end of month stuff coming through tomorrow.

ok update

Market really bullish inti GDP figures - really should have checked that out
Should have read price better than thinking about what I wanted price to do
Think I have to plan the day out a bit better
Any how got a really nice short position - currently 15 pips up
Really like the 15 min time frame - more time to do things- and I prefer to trade during the APAC session - less stress

Another update

got some pips off that sell off yesterday- pulled back to the POC

then nice pullback after London opened to get some liquidity - and then off she went

the pound is so bullish atm - despite the ECB meeting - which seems odd- its mainly due to the end of month stuff kicking off

Got a nice trade-

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pkhHNmYV/

The sell off on equities also helps the risk off sentiment

More buying

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rk7HTcjT/

30 mins to 4pm fix!

Very important level this- the 4pm fix

Right have a decent sell on
one is up 40 pips from the re-test of the 4pm fix

Then have scalped my way down as well

https://www.tradingview.com/x/B6TPLfxi/

They tried to go long - but got turned over
But now selling has dropped off, value is up- so lets see

12 pips up atm- reversed sell

https://www.tradingview.com/x/P75ACLXT/

now flat

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4oG5pL5E/

and

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dlWdkYcA/

All the attempts to get on the short move on Cable

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9FtgxnXK/

There is a saying if you are not on the inside - you are outside and this certainly applies to trading.
Did a bit of scalping over the last day or so ....
Not too shabby... got 27/27 most was done during APAC - lock-down is a pain in xxxxx
But 216 pips - is pretty good. Draw down - maybe .5% on 1 trade
There are always areas where you can improve


The afternoon

https://www.tradingview.com/x/k4ayjNdF/

Interesting article on Cable

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKBN22D5ON

Go 130 pips - plus some stuff on Gold today

But lessons -

Should have been on UJ- accumulation plus strong initial moves- should have tracked it
Also should have waited for accumulation to finish before jumping on long AJ
Got 9/13 - which is not bad- and to be honest I think I prefer to trade like this - as you are seeing pure value- and then looking for something to set up - and then getting in.

Cable should be setting up for a long
Although nice sell set up this morning - but Cable is bullish - as is the dollar
I see GBPJPY is up and UJ has retraced a bit
Plus there is + soundbites on Pound, - on dollar, & equities up
PMI figures due 9.30 which could taper sentiment lets see what happens at 9. ish

Really should have been short the Euro this morning...

There we go

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xg7pO7kb/

The thing is the options guys and the bond guys - bit bearish- so that is putting me off a bit
but got some pips off that spike

Look at that - we have a beat and the pound gets bashed
Its all to do with pricing.
Weidmann's comments has put the boot in. He is highly rated
I should have taken a short off that spike...looking at the the pricing- would have been another 20+pips
Looking ahead for today - the US estimates are not great.

The thing is - just thinking how much more equities have to go.
Dollar is at now an important level.
Big release coming up
If it beats expected- going to be a nice drop on Cable

Easy money....