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The Journal Of A Macro Fundamental & Technical Analysis Junkie

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited at 4:08pm May 13, 2013 3:39pm | Edited at 4:08pm
Hi and thanks for taking a look at my journal.

I have been trading the financial markets for around 6 years or so. I combine macro fundamentals with technical analysis in order to attempt to make a living from the FX market.

I do a lot of charting, but keeps things simple, what works for me may not work for you. I use Fibonacci retracements and Fibonacci expansions, trendlines and price action. My main analysis is done using the daily chart, I then use the 1 hour and 15 minute chart to pinpoint my entry and provide a good risk/reward opportunity.

On this journal I'm going to post some of my analysis and trade ideas, I mostly just trade the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY & USD/CAD, but occasionally I will trade other instruments.

I have recently started a personal blog, you can find the address on my profile page if you go there and look at the contact me section.

I'm very selective in what trades I take, just becasue I have done analysis on 4 pairs and outlined what needs to happen before I trade, does not mean I will trade all 4 pairs on the day. I will select what I belive in my opinion to be the best set-up, and then I will put my money on the line. I tend to just take 1 or 2 trades per day, but sometimes I may not take any trades, just depends on the market conditions.

If you have any comments or questions, then feel free to ask or comment, but please keep things tidy and friendly, there is no need for hostility.
Twitter: @JustTradingFX
To give a sample of how I plot out my charts and how I trade, here is today GBP/USD analysis I posted on my blog this morning, followed my my trade details which I posted later in the day.

GBP/USD Analysis 13/05/13


Price has declined over the past few days after printing a daily shooting star candlestick below the resistance at the top of the channel. The support now sits at 1.5365 which is the channel bottom, if broke, this would leave the 23.6% fib expansion level at 1.5241 vulnerable to a test.

Daily Chart:

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GBP/USD Half profits booked @ +78



GBP/USD stayed with and below the 14.6% (1.5380) fib expansion line all day, with the 15 minute chart showing signs of overbought conditions I initiated a short at @ 1.5369 (13:00gmt) when the stochastic crossed over from a bounce at the 80% level. Prices have dropped and currently trading at 1.5291, I have booked half profit here and moved my stop to entry targeting the 23.6% fib expansion level at 1.5241.

Daily Chart Update:

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1 Hour Chart:

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15Minute Chart:

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I trade bounces of the Fibonacci retracement levels and Fibonacci expansion levels as well as breakouts of these levels. This is the core of my trading and what has personally worked for me for a number of years. I don't expect it to work for everyone or be suited to everyone, its just my preferred trading style.
Twitter: @JustTradingFX
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:57pm May 13, 2013 5:45pm | Edited at 5:57pm
I think going into tonight's NZD retail sales is going to be focused around the 100% fib expansion level which sits at 0.8270.

NZD/USD broke through this level today during the second half of the U.S session and has remained below it. Below exposes the 123.6% fib expansion level 0.8195 and also the 138.2% fib expansion level 0.8149. Above 0.8270 would leave the 76.4% at 0.8344 vulnerable to a test.

A miss forecast print on the NZD retail sales, less than 0.9% would probably see the 123.6% and 138.2% tested, while a better than expected release would probably see the NZD/USD regain the 0.8270 and head for the 76.4% at 0.8344.

Daily Chart:

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The one hour chart has recently shown over sold signs on the stochastic, but this looks to be unwinding with the stochs moving above the 30% level, at the same time as the hourly chart is unwinding its over sold reading, the 15 minute chart is showing overbought readings just under the 0.8270 resistance level.

The daily stochastic is indeed within the over sold area, but as of yet no hook up has printed which still leaves the possibility of further losses.

1 Hour Chart:

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15 Minute Chart:

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Trade Ideas: Going into the Retail sales release I would probably go with a break of 0.8240 on a miss on forecast for the 123.8% and 138.2% levels. On a better than expected release that beats forecast, I would probably go with a break of the 0.8270 level for a test of the 76.4% at 0.8344.
Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Last night the NZD retails sales came in a little worse than the forecast, but that didn't stop the NZD/USD from moving above the resistance point I highlighted at 0.8270 for a buying opportunity. Regardless of the data release, I always go with what the technicals are showing in the short term, fundamental moves tend to take longer to evolve and in my opinion the technical almost always show the way.

Price failed to even challenge the down side level I mentioned 0.8240 for a selling opportunity, so going long on a break at the resistance 0.8270 was the play.

NZD/USD has been as high as 0.8302 but has since settled back below 0.8300, hopefully we will see a push to the 76.4% fib expansion level 0.8345. If not, then a move back below 0.8270 and close on the hourly chart would cancel out the bullish view.

Updated Daily Chart:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:10am May 14, 2013 4:40am | Edited at 5:10am
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) is due out in the next 30 minutes, forecast is for 39.5/40.

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart, price is testing the 1.3015 resistance level which is the 23.6% fib expansion. On better than expected data, we could see a push above this resistance level for a move to the 14.6% fib expansion which sits at 1.3102 and the red trend line.

A lower than forecast number may see the EUR/USD break today's Asian low at 1.2977 for a move to the 38.2% fib expansion level which is at 1.2873.

The daily stochastic is within the over sold area (below 20%) and looks to be hooking up, though not confirmed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) is due out in the next 30 minutes, forecast is for 39.5/40. Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart, price is testing the 1.3015 resistance level which is the 23.6% fib expansion. On better than expected data, we could see a push above this resistance level for a move to the 14.6% fib expansion which sits at 1.3102 and the red trend line. A lower than forecast number may see the EUR/USD break today's Asian low at 1.2977 for a move to the 38.2% fib expansion level which is at 1.2873. The daily stochastic...
A failed attempt to clear the 23.6% fib expansion (1.3015) level on the 1 hour chart has lead to a sell signal on the EUR/USD. A worse than expected German ZEW Survey is now taking its toll on the EURO, with downside targets at the blue trend line 1.2915 and then the 38.2% fib expansion level 1.2873.

Daily, 1 hour and 15 minute charts below...

Daily Chart Update:

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1 Hour Chart:

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15 Minute:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
I have posted analysis and charts on my blog for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY & USD/CAD: http://justtradingforex.co.uk/

EUR/USD: Running Trade From 13/05/13 Analysis: Short @ 1.3006, stop @ 1.3030, targets 1.2915 trend line and 1.2873 38.2% fib expansion.

 Price is testing support in the 1,2950′s for now, a break lower will expose the blue trend line which today is at 1.2915 and the 38.2% fib expansion 1.2873. Resistance is at the 23.6% expansion 1.3015 then the 14.6% 1.3102.


GBP/USD: Running Trade From 13/05/13 Analysis: Short @ 1.5369, Booked half profit +78, stop @ entry, next target 23.6% fib expansion 1.5250, 38.2% 1.5024. Price has fell as expected after holding the 14.6% fib expansion 1.5380 as resistance yesterday. The GBP/USD has taken out the channel bottom which now exposes the 23.6% 1.5250 and 38.2% 1.5024 as targets. The broken channel line now becomes resistance today at 1.3070.


USD/CAD: Prices bounced off the 14.6% expansion level yesterday and has held as support during the Asian session. Currently testing resistance at the 23.6% level 1/0138, a break here will expose the 38.2% 1.0215. Support today is the 14.6% and tend line support at 1.0021.


USD/JPY: Price broke above the 76.4% 101.44 resistance on Friday which clears the path for a test of the 100% resistance at 103.18. The 101.44 now becomes support with a break below that targets the 61.8% expansion level at 100.36.
Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
To give a sample of how I plot out my charts and how I trade, here is today GBP/USD analysis I posted on my blog this morning, followed my my trade details which I posted later in the day. GBP/USD Analysis 13/05/13 Price has declined over the past few days after printing a daily shooting star candlestick below the resistance at the top of the channel. The support now sits at 1.5365 which is the channel bottom, if broke, this would leave the 23.6% fib expansion level at 1.5241 vulnerable to a test. Daily Chart: {image} GBP/USD Half profits booked...
Closed out the second half of my GBP/USD short position +119, (details here)

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
EUR/USD: Running Trade From 13/05/13 Analysis: Short @ 1.3006, stop @ 1.3030, targets 1.2915 trend line and 1.2873 38.2% fib expansion.

Price is testing support in the 1,2950′s for now, a break lower will expose the blue trend line which today is at 1.2915 and the 38.2% fib expansion 1.2873. Resistance is at the 23.6% expansion 1.3015 then the 14.6% 1.3102.
Tightened my EUR/USD belt buckle, stop moved to entry 1.3006.
Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Is the USD/JPY setting up for a pop higher towards the 100% fib expansion level 103.18.

Yesterday the USD/JPY printed a doji just above the 76.4% support at 101.44, today it has remained above this support steadily.

Daily Chart:

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We can see here on the 1 hour chart it has been holding 101.44 (76.4) since yesterday.

1 Hour Chart:

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I will only attempt a long position if the 15 minute chart CCI and Stochastic dip into the over sold zones and then rise out of them while USD/JPY remains above the 101.44 support.

15 Minute:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
USD/CAD: Prices bounced off the 14.6% expansion level yesterday and has held as support during the Asian session. Currently testing resistance at the 23.6% level 1/0138, a break here will expose the 38.2% 1.0215. Support today is the 14.6% and tend line support at 1.0021.
USD/CAD gave the break of the 23.6% fib expansion level today at 1.0138, around 18:00gmt, price pulled back to this level and held as support, the hold was confirmed with the 15 minute CCI and Stochastic dips to the over sold areas and then turning back up for an entry signal.

I'm a little concerned about the 1 hour CCI being over stretched above the 100 level, but the daily Stochastic shows plenty of room for a further move higher. The risk on this trade is 1.0120, entry was taken at 1.0145 and the target is the 38.2% fib expansion level at 1.0215.

Daily Chart:

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1 Hour Chart:

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15 Minute Chart:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
EUR/USD: Running Trade From 13/05/13 Analysis: Short @ 1.3006, stop @ 1.3030, targets 1.2915 trend line and 1.2873 38.2% fib expansion.

Price is testing support in the 1,2950′s for now, a break lower will expose the blue trend line which today is at 1.2915 and the 38.2% fib expansion 1.2873. Resistance is at the 23.6% expansion 1.3015 then the 14.6% 1.3102.
EUR/USD has hit first target at the broken trend line (blue) 1.2915, half position closed @ +91, stop is already at entry 1.3006, next target I'm looking for is the 23.2% fib expansion level 1.2873.

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
{quote} USD/CAD gave the break of the 23.6% fib expansion level today at 1.0138, around 18:00gmt, price pulled back to this level and held as support, the hold was confirmed with the 15 minute CCI and Stochastic dips to the over sold areas and then turning back up for an entry signal. I'm a little concerned about the 1 hour CCI being over stretched above the 100 level, but the daily Stochastic shows plenty of room for a further move higher. The risk on this trade is 1.0120, entry was taken at 1.0145 and the target is the 38.2% fib expansion...
Booked half profit at 1.0180 @ +35, stop to entry 1.0145, target still remains the 38.2% fib expansion 1.0215.

Daily Chart:

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1 Hour Chart:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
{quote} Booked half profit at 1.0180 @ +35, stop to entry 1.0145, target still remains the 38.2% fib expansion 1.0215. Daily Chart: {image} 1 Hour Chart: {image}
Quoting Tech-A
{quote} EUR/USD has hit first target at the broken trend line (blue) 1.2915, half position closed @ +91, stop is already at entry 1.3006, next target I'm looking for is the 23.2% fib expansion level 1.2873. {image}
Closed my USD/CAD and EUR/USD trades just ahead of targets.

USD/CAD closed at 1.0204, target was 1.0215, +68

EUR/USD closed at 1.2897, target was 1.2873, +109
Twitter: @JustTradingFX
GBP/USD is trading just under the 23.6% fib expansion level 1.5241 after breaking and closing below it on the daily chart, some early tests of this after the UK employment numbers, BOE is up next.

Not sure what to think of this just now as the direction so far today is flat. Above 1.5241 would leave the 14.6% level 1.5380 vulnerable to a test, remain below 1.5241 an it could bring the 38.2% fib expansion level into play at 1.5015.

The low of the day is 1.5192 while the high of the day so far is 1.5273, I might go with a break of one of these depending on what BOE has to say.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Watching the 23.6% fib retracement level (1.2936) for a test and hold. If EUR/USD can get back here this week I might look to short again for the 50% fib expansion 1.2760, but will also have to watch out for a move to the 38.2% retracement and 23.6% expansion resistance at 1.2995/1.3015.

Its just an idea at this stage.

Daily Chart:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:03am May 16, 2013 3:53am | Edited at 4:03am
Holla,

Some daily charts that look interesting today, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD holding under fib expansion resistance levels so far.

1.2759 the 50% fib expansion level is looking vulnerable to a test on the EUR/USD, but a move and hold back above current resistance 38.2% fib expansion 1.2873 would provide a relief rally to the 23.6% 1.3015.

On the GBP/USD the 1.5024 38.2% fib expansion looks a realistic target for bears, but there is a support level around 1.5110 before that. A move and hold back above the current resistance 1.5250 would leave a move back to the 14.6% 1.5390 open.

Both daily stochastics look to be leveling off in the over sold areas.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USD/CAD hit the 1.0215 target yesterday, though I took profits before. A break above that resistance leave the 50% fib expansion vulnerable to a test. Back below 1.0138 support for a test of the 14.6% 1.0090.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USD/JPY still above support (76.4% fib expansion 101.44) and holding firm, the 100% fib expansion is within reach 103.18 if it can catch another bid.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
How far can the AUD/USD go?

The 76.4% fib expansion level sits at .9652 which is definitely a realistic target for the AUD/USD, below that is the 100% at .9352, though, I think that one is out of reach, the 76.4% .9652 is very possible.

I wouldn't be keen to try and catch a falling knife so why try to catch the AUD/USD with a bottom, I think it would take a daily close back above the 61.8% fib expansion level now that be have poked through it to start any relief rallies.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
How far can the AUD/USD go? The 76.4% fib expansion level sits at .9652 which is definitely a realistic target for the AUD/USD, below that is the 100% at .9352, though, I think that one is out of reach, the 76.4% .9652 is very possible. I wouldn't be keen to try and catch a falling knife so why try to catch the AUD/USD with a bottom, I think it would take a daily close back above the 61.8% fib expansion level now that be have poked through it to start any relief rallies. {image}
AUD/USD failed to close above the 61.8% fib expansion level, pressure still stay with a test of the 76.4% expansion level at 0.9652, a reversal back above the 61.8% will still be needed to kick-off a relif rally if we are to see one. Otherwise be happy being short.

Daily Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
Quoting Tech-A
Watching the 23.6% fib retracement level (1.2936) for a test and hold. If EUR/USD can get back here this week I might look to short again for the 50% fib expansion 1.2760, but will also have to watch out for a move to the 38.2% retracement and 23.6% expansion resistance at 1.2995/1.3015. Its just an idea at this stage. Daily Chart: {image}
3 days of higher lows (green box) though the 3rd day (current day) is still active so not confirmed. But what is confirmed is the EUR/USD has refused to close under the 38.2% fib expansion level over the past 2 days and is still currently trading above it.

With the higher lows and the refusal to close below, there is a hint of buying accumulation going on, I don't think I would sell a break here, rather I will go with my previous analysis of a relief rally first to the 1.3015 and maybe 1.3100 before trying to short EUR/USD again. I will sit out a break lower if a pull back doesn't happen and wait for better opportunities.

Daily Chart:

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Twitter: @JustTradingFX
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