On Friday we dropped to a liquidity level+ all the usual risk assets didn't drop- so a slight concern for bears for me
We did get an L shape on vol profile with a low close - this is bearish
Fundamentally - the picture is a bit mixed;
UK
BOE are now looking at neg interest rates - this is negative on the pound
PMI services were great (considering)
Poor German manu figures did not help
Brexit.... any neg comments over the weekend will hurt the pound
Looking ahead non essential shops may be able to open in June
Also I saw Goldmans seemed to be more + on Brexit negotiations
Gilts turned a bit on Friday
US
Not looking at neg interest rates- neg on cable
Recent figures ok- unemployment although a miss
China
Usual US/China spat had an effect on the market overnight
Hong Kong proposed legislation not good- but Aussie ok during London
Red tape by China on Aus - on iron ore will impact Aussie
Still OTM calls really high, ITM puts still there
Quite a few OTM puts
Risk revers- still neg
1.2050 & 1950 some decent puts
What's making me slightly more bullish for the London session is the following:
Gilts
Friday liq
So might just get a pullback to the POC and normal service
**US and London shut on Monday**
........ What's making me slightly more bullish for the London session is the following: Gilts Friday liq So might just get a pullback to the POC and normal service **US and London shut on Monday** https://www.tradingview.com/x/sEVtvMXO/
Right Cable rallied..,,,
Why....there are many reasons
Trapped shorts, little hints in price over the past few days....the close on Friday, the re-test into that bit of liquidity
That edge on Friday, bonds...
Decent PMIs, Goldmans sounding more positive over Brexit
Implied vol less than historical, balancing albeit a bit early
For me it was the news that really did it.....non essential shops opening, plus positive overnight news on the NiKkei
It was obviously London traders that ran it - otherwise it wouldn't have stopped 4pm.
Quite weird looking at China jumping up and down and a minister resigning whilst the pound moved like a rocket.
Wednesday London- well more balancing to be done
P shape
ie - buying cable.
Bought some Gold.
I really hate Gold anyway- but
a) Its cheap
b) China/Trump
c) Other risk stuff is showing a bit
d) Lots of short will be in pain
e) Its at a POC
f) PCE on Friday low, GDP est ...not that great
g) Structure
But risk reversals not doing a lot.
Stops are at be+1
Surely someone in London will buy it- starting to move a bit
Wednesday London- well more balancing to be done P shape ie - buying cable.
Ignored
Making some pips off the Cable long
On the Cable forum even posted a link where Citi are telling them the hedge funds have to sell dollars and buy cable.
And still they go short.....(at low prices)
The move off the top was pre-programmed
Missed that...
Tomorrow is going to be interesting. Lots happening.
Will we hit it 1.25 - who knows would be nice...think most of the move was today
But lets see
Lots of people reading my thread...
Welcome- feel free to give us a thumbs up
Cable....did well
Although I should have shorted it at the 4pm fix.
This is a key level if we re-test
Also bought Gold yesterday...
2K pips I think.
And traded a bit on Trump's speech.
The thing is everyone knew what he was going to say.
May be the bit on the WHO- but he was threatening something for a while
Can't believe its Friday.....
Hopefully June will be better
Need to double check what the monthly situation is with currencies
Cable is still of interest
Need to fully go through everything with Cable - as Brexit will be taking centre stage soon
When Frost spoke last week- there was a big sell on the pound
What businesses want is certainty.
So whether its a Canada or Australian style Brexit deal...
Thursday 4th June is when we should hear something....whatever Frost says it will move the markets
US Dollar
Data release estimates-
Monday- Wednesday strong
Thursday -Friday weak
Euro
On Thursday - there is an expectation of doubling the pandemic bond buying https://www.rte.ie/news/business/202...eting-minutes/
Personally, I think it will be the higher rate.
So its likley to be a sell on the Euro on Thurs
Pound today
Goldmans report - weakened dollar
US v value on the floor on the re-test https://www.tradingview.com/x/WUI7BlTZ/
Discount on equities in cash open revert to risk on
Cable structure
Think S&P capped due to Bloomberg China headline
Max pain at 1.25 on futures
Riots/China issues did not help- UJ looked completely overpriced
As Bloomberg report that traders don't care about Brexit - seems nonsense to me ...as Brexit talk had it moving last week
Price wise 0.8800 looks a decent price-long on EURGBP
Will wait for tomorrow- Frankfurt open
Thinking atm. Pound today Goldmans report - weakened dollar US v value on the floor on the re-test https://www.tradingview.com/x/WUI7BlTZ/ Discount on equities in cash open revert to risk on Cable structure Think S&P capped due to Bloomberg China headline Max pain at 1.25 on futures Riots/China issues did not help- UJ looked completely overpriced As Bloomberg report that traders don't care about Brexit - seems nonsense to me ...as Brexit talk had it moving last week Price wise 0.8800 looks a decent price-long on EURGBP Will wait for tomorrow-...
Ignored
Right they drove down into the London open.
And bought it from there.
Had a limit order of .8880- go the rally.
Then dollar sentiment took over.
This move up is due mainly to euro being a bit stronger than the pound.
However, the closer we get to Thursday the more bullish the EG will get.
But one concern is the ECB meeting on Thursday- need to have all the levels prepared on that
ATM its all selling Cable.- feels a bit extended
So small long- off that level
risk is flat/positive https://www.tradingview.com/x/dQ86Fz4J/
1.257 is might get defended unless UJ does some long covering
