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  • #101
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:17pm Jul 20, 2020 2:39pm | Edited 3:17pm
Right so where are we at on Cable

UK

BOE: Bullish on the UK economy- now neg rates won't happen
Geop: UK opening up - infection rates manageable
EU sorting out the grants
Mike Pompei arrived the UK today - to discuss a trade deal, China and 5G


US

Fed: Dovish
Geop: Mess- US elections, infections on 2nd wave

China will probably sell the pound...
Three Gorges Dam - big concern - typhoons due in a few weeks - which could result in the dam being breached


Does it get any more bullish than that
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #102
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:12am Jul 25, 2020 9:12am
I have to admit when I read some of the threads on forex factory - its like nursery school
Shocking really
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #103
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:15am Jul 25, 2020 9:15am
Quoting SFundamental
Right so where are we at on Cable UK BOE: Bullish on the UK economy- now neg rates won't happen Geop: UK opening up - infection rates manageable EU sorting out the grants Mike Pompei arrived the UK today - to discuss a trade deal, China and 5G US Fed: Dovish Geop: Mess- US elections, infections on 2nd wave China will probably sell the pound... Three Gorges Dam - big concern - typhoons due in a few weeks - which could result in the dam being breached Does it get any more bullish than that
Easy pips.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.png Size: 80 KB
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #104
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:47am Jul 25, 2020 9:47am
Quoting SFundamental
I have to admit when I read some of the threads on forex factory - its like nursery school Shocking really
How please. I thought this is a site for professionas in the world of forex.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #105
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:51am Jul 25, 2020 9:51am
Your analysis are sharply presented thanks.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #106
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:56am Jul 25, 2020 9:56am
Do you have analysis on why EURUSD keeps rising since.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #107
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:35am Jul 25, 2020 10:23am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting skyf
Do you have analysis on why EURUSD keeps rising since.
In forex - pricing is always based on what is likely to happen in the future.

In respect of the Euro- there are a number of reasons:

a) The Fed cut interest rates from 2.50% to 0.25%.
This in turn affects the yield that new bond holders will receive from US treasuries.
So portfolio managers are looking for new homes for their cash- gilts, bunds etc....

b) Also the US has an election coming up- which is a concern especially about Biden

c) China is a real problem at the moment- and a potential for war.

d) Plus the biggest investment banks are long Euro...does not usually pay to bet against them

e) European countries seem to be handling the virus better than the US atm.

This is broadly how the investment banks will look at the fx markets
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #108
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 10:45am Jul 25, 2020 10:45am
Quoting skyf
{quote} How please. I thought this is a site for professionas in the world of forex.
Remember 95% of retail traders lose.
This is a retail traders forum- so 95% of the people on here lose.

So be very careful
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #109
  • Quote
  • Jul 25, 2020 10:56am Jul 25, 2020 10:56am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} In forex - pricing is always based on what is likely to happen in the future. In respect of the Euro- there are a number of reasons: a) The Fed cut interest rates from 2.50% to 0.25%. This in turn affects the yield that new bond holders will receive from US treasuries. So portfolio managers are looking for new homes for their cash- gilts, bunds etc.... b) Also the US has an election coming up- which is a concern especially about Biden c) China is a real problem at the moment- and a potential for war. d) Plus the biggest investment banks...
Thanks. These are really very plausible valid reasons.
I wish I considered at least some these last week.

How does one get to know point d)
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #110
  • Quote
  • Jul 26, 2020 4:54am Jul 26, 2020 4:54am
I like efxdata.com
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #111
  • Quote
  • Jul 26, 2020 7:43am Jul 26, 2020 7:43am
Quoting skyf
{quote} Thanks. These are really very plausible valid reasons. I wish I considered at least some these last week. How does one get to know point d)
There was something else- the EU package- this was critical

In relation to next week - this is going to seem odd.
But the Euro is likely to come off due to end of month book balancing, particularly towards the end of the week
Hopefully, Citi bank should confirm
Even Friday's close was bearish
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #112
  • Quote
  • Jul 27, 2020 7:14am Jul 27, 2020 7:14am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} There was something else- the EU package- this was critical In relation to next week - this is going to seem odd. But the Euro is likely to come off due to end of month book balancing, particularly towards the end of the week Hopefully, Citi bank should confirm Even Friday's close was bearish
Can we see fomc news pushing USD UP?
  • #113
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:55pm Jul 27, 2020 8:07pm | Edited 8:55pm
Not sure what the Fed can actually do....
At the moment we can see real dollar selling at high volumes
Mnuchin did say that he wants stable dollar..
Its expected that the Fed are going to be accommodative and not do anything.

The issue is that yield is on the floor in US treasuries, there are so many risks looking forward- investors are just pilling into gold and other assets until things settle down. The main main problem is the spread of infections in the US - they have to get this under control.

Investors need to see fiscal and geopolitical movement - the unemployment subsidy issue fixed, a reduction in unemployment, China/US relations improve, improvement in the rate of infections, Trump doing better in the polls- and issues in Europe.

At the moment - they are not getting that.
Advance GDP is estimated to be -35%!!! v Germany -9%
Unemployment claims up again
And inflation is starting to tick up
It's a total mess- are looking at future pricing rates into December 2021 are 0-negative.
There is marginal improvement on things looking at other forecasts.
Things do look a bit more positive for equities this week- but really its been the actions of the Fed that has helped

Perhaps Biden can do something...but investors have concerns about Elizabeth Warren and the influence that she might have.

Selling the dollar is the only thing at the moment. (Apart from the end of the his week- where it needs to be bought).
I have looked at 7 different valuations and they have on average the US dollar worth 86 on the dollar index- currently its 93.68
so it still have further to go.
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #114
  • Quote
  • Jul 29, 2020 11:06am Jul 29, 2020 11:06am
Quoting SFundamental
Not sure what the Fed can actually do.... At the moment we can see real dollar selling at high volumes Mnuchin did say that he wants stable dollar.. Its expected that the Fed are going to be accommodative and not do anything. The issue is that yield is on the floor in US treasuries, there are so many risks looking forward- investors are just pilling into gold and other assets until things settle down. The main main problem is the spread of infections in the US - they have to get this under control. Investors need to see fiscal and geopolitical movement...
Top edge Euro starting to sell- they have got a long way to go to balance the Euro
The thing is the US have not been able to resolve any of the employment grant issues- what a mess- and the dollar has been slaughtered over it
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #115
  • Quote
  • Jul 30, 2020 4:59am Jul 30, 2020 4:59am
Not sure if anyone is short Euro .....but its selling...plus they have more to do Friday it should really kick off
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #116
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:08pm Jul 30, 2020 1:14pm | Edited 2:08pm
There are two ways to book balance - one is to sell the Euro- the other is to adjust the differences between the various asset classes.
Usually, they adjust the currency.
Over the last day - they have adjusted the other asset classes - see the spike in the green line, there was billions traded on this.
I guess the fact that Citi were not talking about....
So the big sell off on the Euro....can't see it happening
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Book-Balancing.png Size: 108 KB
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #117
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2020 4:38pm Aug 4, 2020 4:38pm
Right lets do an update...
Equities look dead to me.....the only thing is I think they want to rally it to get a better price
I know it's rallying but everything points to a sell.....
The fact that they closed equity into the high of the day
All the leading indicators are pointing to a sell.....when though
The gap on ES equities ...probably going to get filled

Then surely it will sell....

Fundamentally - why
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #118
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2020 4:51pm Aug 4, 2020 4:51pm
Just eyeing GBPJPY to short it. GBP should be tired of rising by now.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #119
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2020 4:53pm Aug 4, 2020 4:53pm
Quoting SFundamental
Right lets do an update... Equities look dead to me.....the only thing is I think they want to rally it to get a better price I know it's rallying but everything points to a sell..... The fact that they closed equity into the high of the day All the leading indicators are pointing to a sell.....when though The gap on ES equities ...probably going to get filled Then surely it will sell.... Fundamentally - why
If this will affect dollar vs other currencies how
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #120
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2020 5:10pm Aug 4, 2020 5:10pm
Hi Skyf

the pound is a risk asset....
the GBPJPY even more so.

So if equities fall - this will have a negative effect on GBPJPY
Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
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