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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #511,261
  • Feb 8, 2020 12:58pm Feb 8, 2020 12:58pm
Quoting Bones
yea ,I'm saying your approach is super weak , a miracle can happen and it would be right ,the chart is saying with super high probability the next move is down further without going higher than last week. No 1.34 this month quote me when we get there The weekly doesn't get better as is ,because it carried out some major actions {quote} This market has taught me enough lesson not to attack anyone's analysis or impose my own analysis on anyone. I do my research and share my views. Time will reveal who's right and wrong.
[/quote]
As I said earlier, time will tell. Besides I'm not a short term trader anymore, even a move to 1.2750 will still not shake my view of 1.3450.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,262
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:04pm Feb 8, 2020 1:04pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} ?? GU bears?? I assume you mean the small part of the total traders... At least the retail sentiment is in most places very very long and has put more in long positions during the end of the week, but ok if you say so... off-course there will be a dump of dollar,l eventually as it is very high, but so has people now been saying for many weekends... hence i want to ask to learn more about trading strategy, why you think that it will start falling this week? i have not done an us election cycle in forex before, any experience in how this will...
Hello friend, I do not know why I so care about you but I just figure out that you are so willing to learn. There are many fantastic traders in this forum and forex trading doesn't solely Depend on one sided view as there will be highs and lows in this global market. My candid advise is for you to study your chart as much as you can since fundamentals also show in the chart. In addition, do not stake more than 5% of your equity, even if the trade goes against you, it will always return in your favor with good money management and patience. As for GBPUSD, buying in February is more appropriate since it has already ranged down by 300 pips this month. Ensure your margin can tolerate a fall to 1.2750 then a surge to 1.3450 will still follow. Please never scalp at the beginning of the year as the yearly range is just gathering pace. Stay profitable!
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,263
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:10pm Feb 8, 2020 1:10pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote}
As I said earlier, time will tell. Besides I'm not a short term trader anymore, even a move to 1.2750 will still not shake my view of 1.3450.[/quote]

Georginson, I just completed my major pair analysis, and let’s just say, it’s going to be an interesting 2 weeks ahead . As with you, I maintain my long term view on GU, zero change to my trading plan. I’ll reserve my judgement until the market has spoken.

Cheers
Guz
Charts don't drive price, market conditions drive price...
  • #511,264
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:12pm Feb 8, 2020 1:12pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Overall GBP longs have been reduced from 59% to 52% In order for all these longs to be reduced we'd need a fall in prices. The best probability on the weekly would be to keep shorting rallies. Higher prices are just a super opportunity to sell into it for the time being {image} Thing is a rise in price should be equal to a rise from the longs. Its not the case right now. Especially when we are near the top of a move. So many weird things to watch out
Longs cooling off from 52% to 50%. Still plenty of longs.
I'll keep shorting the rallies, nothing changed.

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #511,265
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:19pm Feb 8, 2020 1:19pm
As I said you not going to be able to forecast on range type info reliably ,because it depends what condition the charts are in
I can tell you why -So we spent a few years in range ,what happens should it trend, and thats why the forecast is super weak

the fact its in long term range ,lets it move very unpredictably in it-but its coming off the top
Quoting Georginson
{quote}
As I said earlier, time will tell. Besides I'm not a short term trader anymore, even a move to 1.2750 will still not shake my view of 1.3450.[/quote]
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,266
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:27pm Feb 8, 2020 1:27pm
put up a weekly chart saying how it gets there this month ,if your a longer term trader

Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello friend, I do not know why I so care about you but I just figure out that you are so willing to learn. There are many fantastic traders in this forum and forex trading doesn't solely Depend on one sided view as there will be highs and lows in this global market. My candid advise is for you to study your chart as much as you can since fundamentals also show in the chart. In addition, do not stake more than 5% of your equity, even if the trade goes against you, it will always return in your favor with good money management and patience....
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,267
  • Edited 1:51pm Feb 8, 2020 1:36pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello friend, I do not know why I so care about you but I just figure out that you are so willing to learn. There are many fantastic traders in this forum and forex trading doesn't solely Depend on one sided view as there will be highs and lows in this global market. My candid advise is for you to study your chart as much as you can since fundamentals also show in the chart. In addition, do not stake more than 5% of your equity, even if the trade goes against you, it will always return in your favor with good money management and patience....
thanks

The weekly support will be strong there at around 2700-50 ... those low levels of 1.2 does not make any sense and a broad market overreaction in my view. Britain is still a strong force in Europe and will come back. However, for a strong take off up they will need some better than Booris Johnson :-) why I belive short term down is that Johnson i guess will try to squeeze the Europe Union on time and hence be difficult and put high demands so the work is stalled for a few months, this was his tactics after summer 2019 (the man actually closed down the parliament to assure that there would be no time for negotiations nor objections) and post brexit election he did again the same by taking out the clause of possible exstension. He wants to take out time and then force/rush and pushes both parties into making deals, those deals are not the best, but still a bad deal can sometimes be better than no deal!! So I am betting on some more pretty aggressive comments the coming weeks/months from him and his friends that will state that they will not agree to EU rules or demands bla bla bla...

edit:
just after writing this i went to the guardian and found this article... read and learn his tactics:-)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...talks-rhetoric
  • #511,268
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:57pm Feb 8, 2020 1:57pm
you can't make decisions on range alone
example 235 pip candle I'm looking at posts saying its overextend all the way ,then after it closed ,
the correct way to read that range is its very strong buying, the start of something....
ranges are dynamic, average not really useful
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,269
  • Feb 8, 2020 2:01pm Feb 8, 2020 2:01pm
this one is in association to that one ,but this one is far more likely to go further since it comes after extended side rather than very strong up
so not to expect consolidation or reversal next
12600 is a logical target not 13400 on that TF
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,270
  • Feb 8, 2020 3:04pm Feb 8, 2020 3:04pm
Quoting Bones
put up a weekly chart saying how it gets there this month ,if your a longer term trader {quote}
Please check January 2017 low and April 2018 High. Also Check September 2019 Low... You will see a big clue of 1.4xxx. My analysis is weak to you simply because you are very adamant on your own analysis, which I do not object to in any way. I know the current price is in a bearish territory but it won't last long before 1.34 will be seen. 1.27xx is a very strong support mate. Stay green!
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,271
  • Edited 6:16pm Feb 8, 2020 3:54pm | Edited 6:16pm
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put it on a chart its much harder to see what your saying in words...
no it isn't weak because your target is different ,you built a target from ranges, a wacky formula ,anyway its wrong and we have to go through the process of waiting.
While I gave about 20 reasons on a chart so far...
I give it one consolidation candle next on the weekly ,or continuation which ill decide early on Monday

February monthly will be a red candle that hasn't touched the open,I can tell that now with very high probability- it has hang man + confirmation today .
Or 3 candle evening star.

You have to be wet behind the ears to feel that can be changed to bullish

Quoting Georginson
{quote} Please check January 2017 low and April 2018 High. Also Check September 2019 Low... You will see a big clue of 1.4xxx. My analysis is weak to you simply because you are very adamant on your own analysis, which I do not object to in any way. I know the current price is in a bearish territory but it won't last long before 1.34 will be seen. 1.27xx is a very strong support mate. Stay green!
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,272
  • Feb 8, 2020 10:28pm Feb 8, 2020 10:28pm
Just close in swing will be difficult new openfor sure. Anyway pb efforts likely in small tf towards 2930 very ok but a little higher tf of h5 likely go new lows /support to have this pullback.that there can be unsuccessful attempt to break 2915 and likely fall to 2824 areas as in an 5th extension before good attempt! So may to wait pb or bo of previous low before enter market next in scalping mode. Take care, fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #511,273
  • Edited Feb 9, 2020 2:18am Feb 8, 2020 11:10pm | Edited Feb 9, 2020 2:18am
Does anyone here trade Fibonacci retracement levels in different time frames?
I see only very few posts about it. No many ideas to exchange at all.
SMA 50 on the weekly time frame is pointing:

  1. The next bounce at Fib 50% retracement
  2. Historically since 2016, ranging between Fib 50% and the recently broken support level Fib 38%. This also has been historically retested. Because 50% is not a very strong support/resistance level, and considering there's no enough fundamental to lift the Cable right now, the next checkpoint in the following weeks should be Fib 61.8% (1.2550). After some ranging, of course.
  3. That's when is likely the Pound starts getting some mojo.
  4. Fib 61.8% is being very important on Cable at this very moment and this indicates that big moves are coming.
  5. Just observe this multiple scenario on the weekly chart below.

Cheers and happy trading.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hey buddy, let's grab some Pips!
  • #511,274
  • Feb 9, 2020 12:08am Feb 9, 2020 12:08am
Quoting WhiteMouseFX
Does anyone here trade Fibonacci retracement levels in different time frames? I see only very few posts about it. No many ideas to exchange at all. SMA 50 on the weekly time frame and is pointing: The next bounce at Fib 50% retracement Historically since 2016, ranging between Fib 50% and the recently broken support level Fib 38%. This also has been historically retested. Because 50% is not a very strong support/resistance level, and considering there's no enough fundamental to lift the Cable right now, the next checkpoint in the following weeks...
ok all goes to same areas and so automatically fibs also covered ! 50% mofu areas ranges more , adds more risks both sides too & to care as always . and 61.8% as you concerns! may consider 2 legs down to 78.6% instead.take care
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #511,275
  • Feb 9, 2020 12:41am Feb 9, 2020 12:41am
Quoting Bones
{image}put it on a chart its much harder to see what your saying in words... no it isn't weak because your target is different ,you built a target from ranges, a wacky formula ,anyway its wrong and we have to go through the process of waiting. While I gave about 20 reasons on a chart so far... I give it one consolidation candle next on the weekly ,or continuation which ill decide early on Monday February monthly will be a red candle that hasn't touched the open,I can tell that now with very high probability- it has hang man + confirmation today...
Fingers crossed Bones... You are very good at drawing charts which isn't my strong point as I only work on cyclical ranges. As I said earlier, time will reveal who is right and wrong. Peace!
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,276
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:45am Feb 9, 2020 1:45am
Quoting WhiteMouseFX
Does anyone here trade Fibonacci retracement levels in different time frames? I see only very few posts about it. No many ideas to exchange at all. SMA 50 on the weekly time frame and is pointing: The next bounce at Fib 50% retracement Historically since 2016, ranging between Fib 50% and the recently broken support level Fib 38%. This also has been historically retested. Because 50% is not a very strong support/resistance level, and considering there's no enough fundamental to lift the Cable right now, the next checkpoint in the following weeks...
I only use the 50% fib for confluence for working out averages in a swing. Sure many others use 61.8 28 etc. I think there are heaps of fib threads/ posts on FF. Cheers
MM
  • #511,277
  • Feb 9, 2020 2:17am Feb 9, 2020 2:17am
Quoting fontu
{quote} ok all goes to same areas and so automatically fibs also covered ! 50% mofu areas ranges more , adds more risks both sides too & to care as always . and 61.8% as you concerns! may consider 2 legs down to 78.6% instead.take care {image} {image}
Hi Fontu,
thanks for your comments.
I'm definitely watching a possible checkpoint on 0.786 retracement too. Thanks. It's very possible.
With Pound stamping Fib 61.8%, intense volatility is expected. 100-150 pips each way to get some air will be nothing.
Let's see.
See ya.
Hey buddy, let's grab some Pips!
  • #511,278
  • Edited 3:57am Feb 9, 2020 3:40am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting Guztro
{quote} Hi VM, not sure if you missed my reply to mrsniper on why I hold the view that the pound will strengthen at the back of the last NFP report? Below was my reply to him: While the payroll number (increase in employment number) is important, the real impact of the NFP data often rests on the average hourly wages and prior revisions. In last month's wages we saw a dismal rise of 0.1%. This month it was again disappointing. What does this tell you? It says that the Fed's stimulus is not translating into the real economy...and therefore potential...
Hi Guz,
Thanks for the reply, I understand your thinking better now. I agree with you that:
1) UK economy will likely show some recovery in the next few months;
2) US economy growth is slowing down, market may need to adjust its expectations;
3) Dollar surge is suspect, we may see USD dump soon.

So there is a potential for an up move. However, Brexit may still outweigh all of those. Given the political constraints, there is absolutely zero chance UK will get a good trade deal with EU. The most likely scenario is that Johnson will drive the negotiations to the brink of collapse (or actually walk from them) and then do some very basic deal that would be still hailed as a great victory by his cronies and most of UK media. The market fears that but still does not really believe this will happen; but it will. With growing realisation there will come the fall of the pound, possibly even to the area much lower than last year's low (as probability of no deal was never estimated higher than 30-40% I believe).

The question is therefore of timing / sequence. I do hope you are right and big rise will come just before the fall.
  • #511,279
  • Edited 6:58am Feb 9, 2020 6:34am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting WhiteMouseFX
Does anyone here trade Fibonacci retracement levels in different time frames? I see only very few posts about it. No many ideas to exchange at all. SMA 50 on the weekly time frame is pointing: The next bounce at Fib 50% retracement Historically since 2016, ranging between Fib 50% and the recently broken support level Fib 38%. This also has been historically retested. Because 50% is not a very strong support/resistance level, and considering there's no enough fundamental to lift the Cable right now, the next checkpoint in the following weeks should...

there are offcourse very good fib traders here, check out vikinsa here and at tradingview as example, but i use ichimoku cloud on multi timeframe and also several timeframe overlay in single timeframes that i made an tradingview indicator for.

Anyhow, one reason for using ichimoku is that it actually contains some of the fib levels. Basically it contains at each time frame the 50% retract point, this is the Kijun line that is the 52period average. While this is not magic i dont think many traders are aware of this!

as example her on my weekly chart, you can see that i have a short aim of the kijun line (teal color) that is exactly the same as 50% fib retracement at about 274

From a monthly perspective we see that we also have same support there on that timeframe. I observed now that this February drop also meant that the trailing 52 periods (chikouspan white line) this week drop down below the tenkan (green up arrow!). This has opened up basically for a further fall on this pair. So i see that we have chances of reaching about 150pips more down short term until we get support on the tenkan.

Because as also seen on the daily chart, the tenkan and kijun have gone through the daily cloud. But again chiko span (white line) was still above the daily cloude, but on friday also this pierced through the daily cloud. So i dont see so much technical support hence down right now until above 274 levels...
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  • #511,280
  • Feb 9, 2020 6:50am Feb 9, 2020 6:50am
Quoting krst8
{quote} hehe agree akim. I got confused during my first weeks of traiding of that gap in November at 2770, as you say still open by closing a long trade as i got scared :-)... so stoped caring about gaps closing but think they can sometimes say something about the direction..
I got burned on gap fills at the end of 2019. Gaps still haven't been filled.....
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