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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #511,241
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:57pm Feb 7, 2020 7:57pm
Quoting navk
{quote} Fridays, it is one way traffic. Never counter... I got burnt few times, lessons learnt, now not doing. Yesterday, I made my money early in asia and frankfurt, and never traded in NY
buddy..
already read my previous post there?
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #511,242
  • Feb 7, 2020 8:01pm Feb 7, 2020 8:01pm
Quoting akim0895
{quote} i’m less experience from all of us around here.. but 1 thing i know.. don’t trust that hole up there keep adding position for that target i have posting before.. pretend the hole not there then trading.. don’t trust that hole,just a market trap.. it will close when lot of traders start to forget about it same we have around 2770.. nice weekends all don’t forget keep wear your mask bear outbreak..
True, spikes are sell opportunity.

Look at those short opportunities when 4hr and daily is short trend
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Intraday only.
  • #511,243
  • Feb 7, 2020 8:40pm Feb 7, 2020 8:40pm
whether it is in Asian session, or London/ NY session, when you made your money, for that day, just keep quiet and tight.

If you can not keep quiet, watch buyers here in sell trend, vice- versa, and advise them.
Intraday only.
  • #511,244
  • Feb 7, 2020 10:15pm Feb 7, 2020 10:15pm
Don't forget about them ,just add to confluence ,you need a good other reason first .
I've seen some really crazy moves to close a gap and they are natural S+R every other trader knows already... maybe its common to leave an order there

Quoting krst8
{quote} hehe agree akim. I got confused during my first weeks of traiding of that gap in November at 2770, as you say still open by closing a long trade as i got scared :-)... so stoped caring about gaps closing but think they can sometimes say something about the direction..
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,245
  • Feb 8, 2020 12:07am Feb 8, 2020 12:07am
Quoting Bones
so weak and wrong quote=Georginson;12743979]{quote} I trade the chart on research of past price (monthly and yearly behavior). From 2010 - 2019, this pair has moved above and below the opening price of the year by 250 pips or more. This year opened at 1.3208 and has sold to 1.2889 being 319 pips below, the up move will still be seen at 1.3458 (1.3208 + 250 pips) The reason I stated February to end bullish is that price moved to low from opening without touching the closing price of January (1.3207),...
[/quote]
This market has taught me enough lesson not to attack anyone's analysis or impose my own analysis on anyone. I do my research and share my views. Time will reveal who's right and wrong.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,246
  • Edited 10:52am Feb 8, 2020 1:25am | Edited 10:52am
so play the symmetrical pa , already burst down, may nominal pb to tank direct most likely.

usdx situation
top extension may to continue without any mercy next.https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12744292
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #511,247
  • Feb 8, 2020 2:48am Feb 8, 2020 2:48am
I do my analize my indicator- H4 wave goes from down to up-should be good move up- it doing second wave down in raw.Daily wave down move from down to up,we have one wave down,expect wave up from down to up.Daily 4 candles under 0,can be 5.But can be second wave down in raw.Weekly wave down -only two small candles under 0, can be 4-5 red candles.Monthly wave down only start -two red candles above zero-move from up to down.
  • #511,248
  • Feb 8, 2020 2:57am Feb 8, 2020 2:57am
I got out of concentration on Friday.
I was locked into a scenario that didn't run good and didn't rely on any logic analysis.
there was no reason to look for here long.
Yes sometimes the price goes against the forecasts, but the cases where the market is going where it needs to go are in higher percentages.
The problem is that I want to hit my forecast every day, which is something that doesn't exist.
You win some and you lkose , the wisdom is to lose as little as possible in the event you make a mistake, or as they say, cut your losses short, and keep your winning running
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yes yes yes
  • #511,249
  • Feb 8, 2020 3:10am Feb 8, 2020 3:10am
Quoting Moty
I got out of concentration on Friday. I was locked into a scenario that didn't run good and didn't rely on any logic analysis. there was no reason to look for here long. Yes sometimes the price goes against the forecasts, but the cases where the market is going where it needs to go are in higher percentages. The problem is that I want to hit my forecast every day, which is something that doesn't exist. You win some and you lkose , the wisdom is to lose as little as possible in the event you make a mistake, or as they say, cut your losses short,...

That can easily happen, me to stuck in those negative scenarios often. Yesterday when we hit the 1.2900 levels i had to think into what happen when we hit the level at the 23 of December last year, we has had around 600 pips move down since election day, attached 15min chart from 23 December.That day we had one main bounce at the lower 2900 levels and a pretty “clear” rejection of this level immediately with an almost 50 pips bounce. That was completely absent yesterday. Together with a large amount of stops in the 2800s it was a high probability of breaking was my reasoning.

This is why I a saw a probability trade to go short now at low/just above 2900 level ( it can still go wrong ;-) ). Now i also understand why so many say to limit the amount of trading pairs and make notes/annotations in the charts of earlier market reaction. Earlier market reaction knowledge can give some edge maybe...
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  • #511,250
  • Feb 8, 2020 3:48am Feb 8, 2020 3:48am
Quoting Lu10mg
Sell gbpusd 1.30853 tp 1.28747 {image}
Almost hit my tp
  • #511,251
  • Edited 5:36am Feb 8, 2020 4:31am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Hi Guz, Would it be possible for you to elaborate on this a bit? I always read your posts with much attention, as many times you correctly predicted GU behaviour, and some of your calls were surprising to me but proved to be right almost to the pip. However, as much as I would like to see GU move back to 1.33-1.34 area, I do feel that fundamentals stack up against the pound, and possible news are likely to move GBP down rather than up. This is especially true for the all-important news related to the UK-EU trade deal, as the political entities...
Hi VM, not sure if you missed my reply to mrsniper on why I hold the view that the pound will strengthen at the back of the last NFP report? Below was my reply to him:

While the payroll number (increase in employment number) is important, the real impact of the NFP data often rests on the average hourly wages and prior revisions. In last month's wages we saw a dismal rise of 0.1%. This month it was again disappointing. What does this tell you? It says that the Fed's stimulus is not translating into the real economy...and therefore potential liquidity problems. US companies will therefore be forced to re-adjust their growth estimates, investors views this as negative.

On the UK-EU trade deal? The real impact of that will come later, not now. The UK continues to deliver solid economic data, so any pound volatility for now will be driven by politics.

Trade Safe and enjoy the weekend.
Guz
Charts don't drive price, market conditions drive price...
  • #511,252
  • Feb 8, 2020 7:34am Feb 8, 2020 7:34am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} i’m less experience from all of us around here.. but 1 thing i know.. don’t trust that hole up there keep adding position for that target i have posting before.. pretend the hole not there then trading.. don’t trust that hole,just a market trap.. it will close when lot of traders start to forget about it same we have around 2770.. nice weekends all don’t forget keep wear your mask bear outbreak..
I agree with you, the couple is trying to close the gap on the sale of 11/11/2019, which lasted for three months! And the price formed a new buy gap and went to block the old one. Perhaps it will be so, especially on the monthly and daily charts, we see good absorption models for sale. But of course, not everything is so simple, and a couple before going down can arrange a lot of surprises for bears that suddenly jumped out of the bulls. Moreover, the pound loves to do this and at what very suddenly when you do not expect)
A whop bop-a-lu a whop bam bam!
  • #511,253
  • Feb 8, 2020 10:50am Feb 8, 2020 10:50am
yea ,I'm saying your approach is super weak ,
a miracle can happen and it would be right ,the chart is saying with super high probability the next move is down further without going higher than last week.
No 1.34 this month quote me when we get there
The weekly doesn't get better as is ,because it carried out some major actions

Quoting Georginson
{quote}
This market has taught me enough lesson not to attack anyone's analysis or impose my own analysis on anyone. I do my research and share my views. Time will reveal who's right and wrong.[/quote]
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,254
  • Edited 11:13am Feb 8, 2020 10:59am | Edited 11:13am
I know your wrong without any doubt whatsoever
You have to change this candle to positive and take the other zones ,the weight of the market is way too heavy even for next month
I'm talking about that open ,if it went there it would tank like you never seen before

So im reading that candle right now and making very reliable assumptions of what's possible ,of course your have to see with your own eyes I'm right

There are very big sellers in that wick to the bullish candle
I had that yellow box on before the Jan candle ,that was my sell zone but it never went there ,never gave the chance
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,255
  • Feb 8, 2020 11:04am Feb 8, 2020 11:04am
Cable is performing as anticipated.

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  • #511,256
  • Feb 8, 2020 11:12am Feb 8, 2020 11:12am
here's where I made my mind up thats a top ,big sellers there by price itself

Quoting Georginson
{quote}
This market has taught me enough lesson not to attack anyone's analysis or impose my own analysis on anyone. I do my research and share my views. Time will reveal who's right and wrong.[/quote]
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,257
  • Edited 2:09pm Feb 8, 2020 11:14am | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting Bones
I know your wrong without any doubt whatsoever You have to change this candle to positive and take the other zones ,the weight of the market is way too heavy even for next month I'm talking about that open ,if it went there it would tank like you never seen before So im reading that candle right now and making very reliable assumptions of what's possible ,of course your have to see with your own eyes I'm right There are very big sellers in that wick to the bullish candle I had that yellow box on before the Jan candle {image}
at least it preserve the pa to bull further next time ,tanking in the correct intention apparently
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #511,258
  • Edited 12:39pm Feb 8, 2020 11:21am | Edited 12:39pm
its why the comment is on the daily ,what that level produced
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,259
  • Feb 8, 2020 12:28pm Feb 8, 2020 12:28pm
Next week, the dollar dump may start...and that won't help GU bears.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #511,260
  • Edited 12:56pm Feb 8, 2020 12:43pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Next week, the dollar dump may start...and that won't help GU bears.

?? GU bears?? I assume you mean the small part of the total traders...

At least the retail sentiment is in most places very very long and has put more in long positions during the end of the week, but ok if you say so...

off-course there will be a dump of dollar,l eventually as it is very high, but so has people now been saying for many weekends... hence i want to ask to learn more about trading strategy, why you think that it will start falling this week?

i have not done an us election cycle in forex before, any experience in how this will affect? My basic thinking is that as long as Trump is winning the US economy is good, if sanders or warren come more issues the US companies?!?
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