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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #981
  • Edited 2:45am Nov 25, 2019 2:29am | Edited 2:45am
Quoting moodybot
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @moodybot -- fair enough -- good question. In response to one of @aaven's questions I provided some additional details. But since I haven't decided whether or not to share it then I didn't make a big deal. Also, I'm not sure how useful it would be since (a) it's something you use.... Thank you for the detailed answer. Yes i do tinker with programming, EA and Excel. Dave (fsxfm) and I have spent a long time studying baskets, Dave more than I. Using either excel (Dave's forte') or EA's that i built using currency
...
@moodybot -- thanks for the excellent response. You provide lots of food for thought. I'll dig deeper -- this "syncing up of pairs began with the USD/JPY" sounds very interesting.

Though trading insults is more fun, I prefer to discuss and learn from you.
  • #982
  • Nov 25, 2019 3:30am Nov 25, 2019 3:30am
Quoting moodybot
....The pairs will act as one in a group for a period of time, I believe that is the market resettling after stop runs, the issue of course, the timing of when they move. Dave and I had an EA several years ago that would accurately show the move had begun based on pip movement, what we couldn't get right was when the move was over.....
Timing is the biggest challenge. When it starts and when it stops.

Tidane 28/3 has been a very good companion. Not sure I have seen any better indicator that keeps me in the trend long enough to catch the move. Most times, the signal is late but just enough to catch the middle of the trend. I am happy to leave pips on the table so long I get enough to pay the bills.
  • #983
  • Nov 25, 2019 4:08am Nov 25, 2019 4:08am
Quoting moodybot
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @moodybot -- fair enough -- good question. In response to one of @aaven's questions I provided some additional details. But since I haven't decided whether or not to share it then I didn't make a big deal. Also, I'm not sure how useful it would be since (a) it's something you use.... Thank you for the detailed answer. Yes i do tinker with programming, EA and Excel. Dave (fsxfm) and I have spent a long time studying baskets, Dave more than I. Using either excel (Dave's forte') or EA's that i built using currency
...
@moodybot -- I was thinking some more about what you wrote and also did a bit more testing. I have some additional comments / questions to run by you. This may come across as contrarian, but that's not my intent. Combining your observations and mine -- I have a different perspective (and approach).

First -- I don't doubt yours and Dave's observations. However, when I read through it then it's much too complex for me. When you talk about the timing of when moves begin or end, syncing that happens or doesn't happen -- then I don't know what to do with that. My brain requires "codable rules" -- building blocks on which to stand. Without codable rules then I'm lost and start looking for another way to approach the problem.

I agree that if pairs didn't conform to certain parameters then we wouldn't have a market to trade. But I also believe the interdependency is very complex, and I don't like tacking complexity head-on. Furthermore, there's no evidence that forex trading requires complex solutions.

A couple of months ago @bishopdotun was lamenting how *imprecisie* basket trading was. He loves basket trading and is very successful. And he's also a deep thinker and was looking for ways to extract even more pips and was finding that difficult. And then we realized that this *imprecision* is the key. In my opinion, the rabbit hole you refer to is any attempt to apply precision to basket trading -- I just don't think it would work. The Index is *NOT* composed of highly-correlated pairs -- just pairs that are "sort of" correlated. The trading baskets (Group A and Group B) are also composed of pairs that are only "sort of" correlated. During the lifetime of a Group A basket its pairs sometimes move with the trend and sometimes opposite. Also, the pairs in Group A sometimes move in different directions than one another. With all this "sort of" and unpredictable movements going on then how can you possibly impose precision? You can't. But in the end basket trading does work -- and that's because even with all its imprecision you have probability on your side. And when it comes to solving complex problems -- probability is your friend. Probability is used to help solve many complex problems.

Rather than attempting to anticipate or predict the timing when pairs will move in a certain direction, if Group A and Group B are properly composed then in the end you will (almost) always win when trading Tidane-H4 from signal-to-signal. During the lifetime of a basket pairs will definitely stray from their designated group, but like teenagers they will eventually return home. And by the time the next signal arrives your Group A and Group B pairs have spent more time doing what we expected than what we didn't expect.
  • #984
  • Nov 25, 2019 4:22am Nov 25, 2019 4:22am
RB7 and C14 closely mimicking eachother.

New re-entry opportunity. I will pass this one. I have used up all my re-entry slots. Now I just get busy with other stuff and my day job.

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  • #985
  • Nov 25, 2019 4:31am Nov 25, 2019 4:31am
Quoting bishopdotun
RB7 and C14 closely mimicking eachother. New re-entry opportunity. I will pass this one. I have used up all my re-entry slots. Now I just get busy with other stuff and my day job. {image} {image}
Bishop,

What is the number "51.04" at the top right?

Thanks
  • #986
  • Nov 25, 2019 4:42am Nov 25, 2019 4:42am
Quoting eduarescobar
Hi Ty, hi people. I am new here... Reading the thread and learning. I’d like to join your group and skype too. This is my graphics, but I think the candles in the offline chart are very very few and the valor of Pivots are, of course, diferent... Are totally diferent to yours graphics Ty... Its a demo account in ICMarket, the numbers on the right are very different, to the last chart you published, I assume that this is related to the number of candles that the offline chart has, in my case they are 752 candles. Thanks a lot for all the work here,...
Hi eduarescobar,

Welcome to the Basket Knights Round Table. Glad to have you join us.

Quote
This is my graphics, but I think the candles in the offline chart are very very few and the valor (color?) of Pivots are, of course, diferent... Are totally diferent to yours graphics Ty
Very few Candles: - YOU can decide on the number of candles as long as you have enough candle bars in your "Chart History". To do this, access the MaxBars parameters within the Basket_Create_v3_670et indicator and increase the amount of bars from the default 250 or 750 to whatever number you want. Alternatively, you could read the thread and THEN make use of other BasketCreate indicators to create your Offline/Index chart.

Color: - I don't know why your HAS is Blue and Red. The template I shared should create Green(Lime) and Red HAS candles. (Maybe you need to delete all your HAS indicators and re-copy the shared HAS indicators from post#1?)
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Different Colored Pivots: - The template I shared on Post#1 doesn't include Pivots (as you can see from the above attached image). So you need to decide for yourself what you want your Pivots to look like if you decide to attach pivots to your chart.

Quote
I’d like to join your group and skype too
Link sent.

Welcome aboard.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #987
  • Nov 25, 2019 5:23am Nov 25, 2019 5:23am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Bishop, What is the number "51.04" at the top right? Thanks
RSI
  • #988
  • Nov 25, 2019 5:51am Nov 25, 2019 5:51am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} RSI
Thanks Bishop.

Is it the RSI value of the current time frame or is it from a higher time frame[like D1] superimposed on the 4HR Index?
  • #989
  • Nov 25, 2019 8:02am Nov 25, 2019 8:02am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks Bishop. Is it the RSI value of the current time frame or is it from a higher time frame[like D1] superimposed on the 4HR Index?
Current TF
  • #990
  • Nov 25, 2019 8:38am Nov 25, 2019 8:38am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"Risk FX Feels Some Love As Week Starts

Risk FX was bid at the start of week's trade with USDJPY inching its way back to 109.00 while cable stabilized and pushed back towards 1.2900 as polls showed PM Johnson in a comfortable lead in the UK election polling.

Equity markets were buoyed by news that China will raise penalties for intellectual property theft - a move seen as an olive branch to the Trump Administration on trade issues.

Risk assets were also aided by generally positive US data last week which has firmed investor sentiment and allayed any fears of significant slowdown in the US growth. We continue to believe that markets are mistaken. That the US has essentially hit peak cycle and that a revival of growth on the back of a resurgence of US consumer is wildly optimistic. But for now, the easing of tensions and the continued loose monetary policy is all that is needed for equity momentum to push higher and that in turn is supporting risk FX.

In North America this week the markets will see a holiday-shortened week with almost all dealing coming to a halt by Wednesday. Elsewhere the calendar remains barren so the low volatility environment that we saw last week is likely to continue unless we see some exogenous shocks.

Wednesday morning will be the key day for the dollar as the US data dump could either make or break the current risk-on mood. The market will get a look at the Durable Goods numbers and most importantly Personal Income and Spending data which could either confirm or refute the consumer resurgence narrative.

We noted that USDJPY needs to close above the 109.00 figure in order to reestablish its upward trend and traders will be watching to see the market can drive it through that level today." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #991
  • Nov 25, 2019 3:50pm Nov 25, 2019 3:50pm
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  • #992
  • Nov 25, 2019 3:52pm Nov 25, 2019 3:52pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} You are welcome Chris. Happy to have you here. Take a seat at the Round Table and contribute as much as you want. Set up your offline/Index chart and let us see what it looks like. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
HI TY
I posted my chart
Cheers
Chris
  • #993
  • Nov 25, 2019 4:07pm Nov 25, 2019 4:07pm
Quoting Elsaloon
{image}
Looking good Elsaloon.

Link sent.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #994
  • Nov 25, 2019 4:17pm Nov 25, 2019 4:17pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"Dollar Bulls - 3 Things to Be Thankful for

This week, Americans will be thinking about all of the things that we can be thankful for. On the first day trading day of this shortened Thanksgiving week, the US dollar is stronger against all of the major currencies. Dollar bulls in particular have a few reasons to be thankful this holiday seasoning. To start, the Federal Reserve has been very clear that barring any unforeseen shocks, further easing may not be necessary. US data is starting to take a turn for the better and the Dow is trading near a record high. Americans are enjoying the combination of growing portfolio values and low interest rates and the hope is that this will translate into a healthier holiday shopping season. Black Friday deals are starting earlier than usual this year, which may help extend the period of demand. Fed Chairman Powell will be speaking later this evening and no major revelations are expected. However Tuesday's new home sales and consumer confidence reports should be strong as they reflect the positive impact of low interest rates and housing data. USD/JPY had a very nice run towards 109 and while the pair stopped right at the 200-day SMA, the path of least resistance should be higher.

Meanwhile EUR/USD fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, coming within a few pips of 1.10. The euro was hit from all sides on Friday (weaker PMIs, ECB comments and stronger US data) and while business confidence improved according to the German IFO report, the selling pressure remains strong. With that said, the IFO report has not fallen since August which confirms our view that the economy is stabilizing. Auto tariffs are still a risk but the November 14th deadline has come and gone with no updates from President Trump.

In contrast sterling snapped a 4 day slide to rise strongly against the euro and US dollar. According to the Confederation of British Industry, consumer spending is picking up ahead of the holiday shopping season. This is very encouraging as the CBI index has a strong correlation with the broader retail sales measure. Sterling traders were also happy with the latest polls showing Tories with a comfortable lead over Labour.

The Canadian and Australian dollars pulled back but the New Zealand dollar held steady ahead of a busy trading week. Third quarter retail sales numbers are scheduled for release from New Zealand tonight followed by the trade balance on Wednesday local time. We've been bullish NZD for some time and expect data to reinforce our view. However the 100-day SMA has limited gains for the past month and NZD find it difficult to push against a pro-US dollar rally." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #995
  • Nov 26, 2019 3:48am Nov 26, 2019 3:48am
Still ranging.... bias to the downside.... holding my shorts....

The range may last till UK elections & news on the trade war....

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  • #996
  • Nov 26, 2019 6:31am Nov 26, 2019 6:31am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

...and while we wait...


"In FX Risk Spikes and then Reverses

A bit of a topsy-turvy night in FX today with risk first spiking in early Asian session dealing and then giving up much of its gains as the night wore on.

USDJPY verticalized to 109.20 on news from China Global Times that the US and China have reached a broad agreement on trade talks but the issues of tariffs still remain outstanding. But the pair quickly gave up the gains and dropped back below 109.00 figure as trade fatigue set in. 109.00 remains a critical area for the pair and it needs to close above that level in order to fully establish a bullish bias, but so far the moves through that level have only been tentative and the jury is still out on whether it can clear that hurdle.

Meanwhile, in the UK the latest series of polls have shown a tightening of the gap between Labor and Tories and the news was not well received by the market which took the pair all the way to 1.2850 on fears of a hung Parliament. We continue to believe that cable may have set the highs for the year and as deteriorating data and continued political chaos envelop the pair it will come under further selling pressure ahead of the election.

In the US session today the calendar is light, and FX will likely take its cues from equities which could see a round of profit-taking after making all-time highs yesterday. For now, the tentative trade continues in both FX and equities as markets are content to tread water." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #997
  • Nov 26, 2019 10:54am Nov 26, 2019 10:54am
Quoting bishopdotun
Still ranging.... bias to the downside.... holding my shorts.... The range may last till UK elections & news on the trade war.... {image} {image}
Hi Bishop, could you share your template..
Thanks a lot
  • #998
  • Nov 27, 2019 3:24am Nov 27, 2019 3:24am
Hello everyone iv been trading for the past 5 years and tried every strategy known to a person yet im still not consistent so iv been reading up of basket trades and im very eager to try this method out it sounds very good and profitable i have setup my charts and templates but i fail to place a trade can i please get help
  • #999
  • Nov 27, 2019 3:55am Nov 27, 2019 3:55am
Quoting HumbleSlayer
Hello everyone iv been trading for the past 5 years and tried every strategy known to a person yet im still not consistent so iv been reading up of basket trades and im very eager to try this method out it sounds very good and profitable i have setup my charts and templates but i fail to place a trade can i please get help
Hello HumbleSlayer and welcome to the Basket Knights thread.

I read your post above but I'm thinking you would need to explain a little more about the "issues" you seems to be getting concerning "failing to place a trade".

Just to be clear, the C5 H4 Index/Offline chart is currently signaling a Sell. That being said, I personally have no C5 trades running because I am yet to get a decent enough DC. Meanwhile I have other baskets running (like the CAD basket, etc).

Other basketters have C14 Sell baskets running from a while back.

Please explain further so that I can help where possible.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,000
  • Nov 27, 2019 4:06am Nov 27, 2019 4:06am
Scripts for Buy and Sell RB7

If you are going to use these, you must verify, for yourself, their accuracy.

My coding skills are quite limited

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip RB7 BUY & SELL SCRIPTS.zip   59 KB | 552 downloads
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