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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #781
  • Nov 8, 2019 9:49am Nov 8, 2019 9:49am
Quoting volumeprice
Be careful everyone. The current driver of the basket is the tarrif deal. There is back and forth of positive/negative statements from China/Trump. Tidane/HAS is not suitable for this quick changes in sentiments. Good news, Bollinger Band can save your trades on this situation. Trade tops and bottoms. If Basket is sell, trade short when pair price touch the top of Bollinger Band, get out when it touch the bottom and vice versa. This approach would save you on large draw downs in case basket switches position. My 1 cent.
Yes, that's what Simon was alluding to here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12604219

It's always good advice to get those DC trades even during regular basket play. Always think R:R.

*I'll add one thing to that: The basketter should determine if they want to pyramid, scale-in, or both.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty

NB: Are you saying you didn't get my messages VP...(wondering).
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #782
  • Nov 8, 2019 12:52pm Nov 8, 2019 12:52pm
Quoting Telac
{quote} Good question; actually it was a combination of things; during the early years when the system was being developed I was sent to some very remote areas for work (oilfield) where I had no internet service or poor service for extended periods so I more or less quit trading for close to a year but I must admit that perhaps my biggest problem and downfall has been jumping from system to system always looking for the greener pastures. It's a trap I still have not fully shaken
Thanks Telac... Hope this time things work out well for you...
  • #783
  • Nov 8, 2019 2:47pm Nov 8, 2019 2:47pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"Trump Denies Tariff Rollback, Triggers FX Pullback

After all of this week's conflicting headlines, the only real truth is that President Trump isn't ready to back down on his trade war with China. There's no doubt that China wants the tariffs cancelled and on Thursday it seemed as if both sides want to include that in the phase one trade deal. However on Friday, Trump made it clear that nothing has been decided - he said that while China wants the US to rollback tariffs, he hasn't agreed to them. This suggests that even though the US and China hope to have a deal on paper next week negotiations aren't going as well as the market had thought. All of the Japanese Yen crosses tumbled in response including USD/JPY. High beta currencies like the Australian and New Zealand extended their slide with the Canadian dollar and euro trailing not far behind. The winds could still shift in right direction because the US could offer China a partial and not full reversal of tariffs. This gesture of goodwill could be enough to satisfy the market and sustain the rally in equities and currencies. Its no secret that President Trump keeps a close eye on stocks and in many ways, consumers do so as well. With equities hitting record highs, the University of Michigan reported improvement in consumer sentiment. We'll get a better look at how the US economy is performing with next week's inflation and retail sales reports. We are looking for firmer numbers but nothing matters more than US-China trade developments. If a trade agreement is finalized next week, currencies and equities will soar, particularly if it includes delay or elimination of the December 15th tariffs. However if the Chinese or Americans cast doubt on progress, the major currencies will extend their slide.

The outlook for the New Zealand dollar is particularly grim. This week's softer labor market numbers and ongoing trade uncertainty boosted the odds of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank to 64%. Even if the RBNZ leaves rates unchanged, their outlook will (remain) gloomy as they leave the door wide open to an early 2020 cut. Given the level of uncertainty in the global economy, the actions taken by the RBA, recent NZ data and the fact that this is the RBNZ's last meeting of the year, there's a very good chance they will decide to bring rates down to match Australia's 0.75% level. The Australian and Canadian dollars also ended the week with losses.

USD/CAD closed above 1.32 for the first time in 3 weeks on the back of weaker labor market numbers. Economists were looking for job growth to slow from 53K to 15K but Canada reported job losses of -1.8K. Not only was this much worse than expected but all of the jobs lost were full time. Although wage growth accelerated, today's report validates the Bank of Canada's somber mood and boosted the chance of a rate cut before the end of the year.

Euro sold off every day this past week against the US dollar. Data hasn't been terrible including German trade and current account numbers, which showed a significant improvement. Exports increased 1.5% while imports rose 1.3%. Unfortunately Q3 GDP numbers are scheduled for release next week and the data is widely expected to confirm that the German economy fell into recession in the third quarter. The government believes that any downturn will be short-lived and therefore fiscal stimulus is unnecessary. Either way, the near term outlook for euro is grim and the uncertainty is high with the US poised to make a decision on auto tariffs.

Last but certainly not least, Brexit risks may have abated but the risks to the economy hasn't. Although most recent economic reports including PMIs were better than expected, the Bank of England cut their GDP and inflation forecasts. We'll learn more about how the UK economy is doing with Q3 GDP, industrial production, trade, retail sales, CPI and employment numbers scheduled for release next week. It will be a very busy week for GBP and the risk is to the downside." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #784
  • Nov 9, 2019 12:30am Nov 9, 2019 12:30am
New sell trend finally underway...

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  • #785
  • Nov 9, 2019 6:48am Nov 9, 2019 6:48am
Hi TyLamai !!!

Very interesting topic! I don’t speak English, it’s a Google translation. DOWNLOADED YOUR VINRAR AND EVERYTHING WORKS !!! SEND PLEASE LINK TO CHAT Skype Basket Knights.

Green basket to all !!!
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  • #786
  • Nov 9, 2019 8:45am Nov 9, 2019 8:45am
Quoting chinchi19
Hi TyLamai !!! Very interesting topic! I don’t speak English, it’s a Google translation. DOWNLOADED YOUR VINRAR AND EVERYTHING WORKS !!! SEND PLEASE LINK TO CHAT Skype Basket Knights. Green basket to all !!! {image}
Ласкаво просимо чинчі19,

Я бачу, що ви з України. Я сподіваюся, що це правильно, ви б взагалі не змогли прочитати цей переклад Google! Лол.

Пізніше я надішлю посилання Skype. Ви новачок на заводі Forex, і налаштування вашого членства не дозволить мені наразі надсилати вам повідомлення.

Я думаю, що завод Forex почав би дозволяти вам отримувати повідомлення, як тільки ви матимете до п'яти повідомлень (я не впевнений). Але, будь ласка, дайте мені знати, коли ви можете почати отримувати повідомлення, щоб я могла надіслати вам посилання.

Піклуватися,

Тай
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #787
  • Nov 10, 2019 6:08am Nov 10, 2019 6:08am
Quoting robots4me
{quote}. The index serves as a virtual currency and that's what we trade. And if we trade signal-to-signal we have a To my mind, trading a basket means you trade an abstraction -- i.e. a virtual currency. If you break the basket down to its individual pairs and trade them separately or at different times or time frames, then this isn't much different than manual trading. I think the magic sauce here is the offline chart index and the basket of pairs that are traded as one virtual currency.
You make valid points but I understand why people will want to break the basket down. Negative trades on the basket can be up to 500 pips loss, assuming one just strictly follows the Tidane signals on the offline chart.

I did a quick two year backtest of the C5 on 4H using the 28/3 Tidane. Taking all signals from the index chart (one C5 entry per signal). 2018 ended in red by around -750pips. At one point, the result was 3500+ pips in red. 2019 till date has been fruitful with 4030+ pips in positive. Still drawdowns of 500-1000pips are common.

Not many traders will sit through a 1000 pips drawdown or a negative year with a strategy without dumping it..Mind you, this test was with the C5. The C14 will be even more volatile.

This is a very solid strategy but rigid following of the indicators requires mental strength to sit through the bad trades. Therefore, it might not be the best for everyone.
  • #788
  • Nov 11, 2019 6:04am Nov 11, 2019 6:04am
Quoting Chenko
{quote} You make valid points but I understand why people will want to break the basket down. Negative trades on the basket can be up to 500 pips loss, assuming one just strictly follows the Tidane signals on the offline chart. I did a quick two year backtest of the C5 on 4H using the 28/3 Tidane. Taking all signals from the index chart (one C5 entry per signal). 2018 ended in red by around -750pips. At one point, the result was 3500+ pips in red. 2019 till date has been fruitful with 4030+ pips in positive. Still drawdowns of 500-1000pips are common....
Welcome Chenko and thanks for your contribution.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #789
  • Nov 11, 2019 6:06am Nov 11, 2019 6:06am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"HK Protests Escalate - USDJPY Drops Below 109.00

It's been a generally quiet start to the week in FX with most pairs remaining in tight ranges, but the dollar was slightly weaker across the board and USDJPY dropped below 109.00 on escalating tensions in Hong Kong.

In Hong Kong, the continued clashes between police and protesters resulted in more violence with HK police admitting that they fired 3 live rounds of ammunition and injuring several protesters. The latest round of tension has taken the look of a low-level guerilla conflict as the clashes are now between small bands of protesters and the police rather than the massive rallies we saw earlier in the summer.

For now, the markets remain generally unconcerned, although the 6-month conflict has certainly taken its toll on HK economy, it hasn't had any impact on geo-political front as Chinese authorities have not militarily interfered to end the conflict. Still, the situation is certainly coming to a slow boil and could become a much greater point of concern if China decided to impose martial law.

Elsewhere the UK GDP printed at 0.3% versus 0.4% but this was still better than the -0.2% contraction in Q2 of this year and has allowed the country to skirt a technical recession. Cable recovered above the 1.2800 post news and has remained quiet for most of London morning dealing. With the UK now in the midst of an election and Brexit news off the stage trading in the pair has become extraordinarily quiet with daily ranges compressing by 30%. For now, the 1.2750 support continues to hold and sterling remains in consolidation mode.

In North America today the bond markets are closed for Veterans day but equities are open so the half-holiday atmosphere is likely to lead to muted trading. If equities see some profit-taking after record highs on Friday, USDJPY could slide further towards 108.50 as the day proceeds." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #790
  • Nov 11, 2019 4:53pm Nov 11, 2019 4:53pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"5 Biggest Risks for FX this Week

Monday was a slow start to a busy week for the currency market. The US bond market was closed for Veteran's Day but the stock market was open allowing stocks to consolidate gains. After last week's big moves, the mood on trade turned sour again after President Trump said he hasn't made a decision on tariff rollbacks. Over the weekend, his contradictory comments continued as the President said talks were moving "very nicely" but the US would only make a deal with China if it were the right deal for the the US. Director of Trade Peter Navarro also said there will be no tariff rollback as part of the phase one trade deal. In a nutshell, last week's positive trade headlines created false optimism in the markets. At this stage, few investors should be surprised by this back and forth as trade developments remain one of the greatest risk for FX trade this week.

Including trade, here are the 5 biggest risks for currencies:
Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress on the economy & monetary policy (Wed)
US President Trump speaks to economic club of NY (Tues) & Ongoing focus on trade
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision (Wed local time)
Australia's Employment Report (Thursday local time)
US Retail Sales (Friday)

On top of all this, the market is on high alert for a decision on EU auto tariffs. The Europeans don't expect them to be imposed but when it comes to decisions by Trump, you never know.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress is one of the most important events this week but Powell won't be the only central banker speaking. We have scheduled events for nearly every US policymaker and many of them will be discussing monetary policy or the economy. Its no secret that after three rounds of easing this year, the Federal Reserve won't be delivering a follow up move in December. Powell also made it clear last month that the latest move was insurance, a message that we expect to be echoed by US policymakers throughout this week. We'll also hear from Bundesbank Governor Weidmann, RBNZ Governor Orr, BoC Governor Poloz, RBA Assistant Governor Bullock and Deputy Governor Debelle.

The best performing currencies today were sterling and the New Zealand dollars. Despite weaker than expected UK GDP, trade and industrial production numbers, sterling popped after Nigel Farage said his Brexit party will not contest the seats won by the Tories at the last election. This is great news for Boris Johnson who now has a much greater chance of winning the December election. A victory is not guaranteed and there could still be a hung parliament but this announcement could completely overshadow softer data this week. With that said, the latest numbers reflect the negative impact of Brexit. GDP growth rose less than expected in the third quarter and slowed year over year. Industrial production continued to fall and the trade deficit widened more than expected. UK labor market numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and the risk is to the downside after PMIs reported weaker job growth in manufacturing and services.

Economists are looking for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower interest rates on Wednesday but the market is pricing in only 60% chance of easing. Either way, we believe that the New Zealand dollar should be trading lower ahead of the monetary policy announcement but currency traded sharply higher today after the shadow RBNZ recommended that the central bank keep rates steady. We believe that even if the RBNZ leaves rates unchanged, ongoing uncertainty in the region should keep them dovish and the risk for NZD is to the downside." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #791
  • Nov 12, 2019 2:58am Nov 12, 2019 2:58am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 is now signaling a Buy basket. *I would PAUSE before jumping into this new basket due to the "shape" of the C14 basket (*see visuals below). As I mentioned in the quote above, the C12 may be ranging... {image} Also consider other factors. Simply put, I will NOT be entering any Buy baskets at this moment...I will wait for a buy DC before opening any trades. I will ALSO not be closing my Sell basket trades ALL at once - I will allow the SLs to be hit. This will give this new Buy basket time to prove itself. For the record: My AJs have...
TWO Weeks! ago I stated this...

As you get used to trading the basket, you'd develop an eye and a feel for these things. Combined with fundies, it can really give a fair picture of how things stand in the market at that point in time.

The basket bias is a Sell for now. What the above helped me do was to hold on to previous buys, bank them at the top of the Sell basket retrace zone (DC). Then add to currently open sells at the top (DC) at fantastic prices.

***Note: YOU do not have to trade the basket this way. It works for ME. It's just how I've come to trade the basket after years of playing around with basketting.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #792
  • Nov 12, 2019 3:56am Nov 12, 2019 3:56am
Trades in progress:

Re-entries: In a sell trend, wait for at least 2 buy bars followed by a sell bar. Re-enter at the close of the sell bar. Vice versa for buy trend. All the dots are re-entries in the direction of trend.

Take only the first few re-entries in a new trend. Hold your trades till trend change for a massive pip haul.

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  • #793
  • Nov 12, 2019 7:13am Nov 12, 2019 7:13am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Dollar Holds Bid as FX Awaits Trump

The dollar was slightly higher in steady Asian and European trade today as FX markets awaited President Trump's speech at 1800 GMT today.

Cable gave up a big chunk of yesterday's gains as the pair slid back towards the 1.2800 figure in the wake of softer than expected UK wage gains and news that Nigel Farage snubs Tory calls to stand down in Labor marginal districts. After yesterday's euphoric reaction to Mr. Farage's announcement that he was going to stand down in Tory districts, the market is reconsidering his impact on the race as the true battle in UK elections will be in the marginal districts where Mr. Farage's influence may be weak.

Earlier in the night, kiwi dropped hard losing 40 pips in overnight trade after inflation expectations came in cooler than expected and set off speculation that the RBNZ may cut rates yet again in tonight's interest rate announcement. The market probability of a rate cut increased to 76.4% from 64% prior.

If the RBNZ cut by another 25bp the kiwi may test the key bottom at the .6200 figure, but unless the RBNZ suggests that there are further cuts to come most of the downside has already been priced into the pair and we would not be surprised if it snaps higher post-meeting.

In North America today, the focus will be on POTUS with markets keenly interested in what Trump has to say about trade with both China and Europe. Most specifically traders are very concerned about the prospect of additional tariffs on European cars, and Trump sidesteps the issue risk assets could see a relief rally on the news. For now, the key level is 109.50 in USDJPY which needs to clear that hurdles in order to re-establish an unambiguous bullish trend. If the pair can close above that resistance then the longs will have the ammunition to run the 110.0 level as the week proceeds." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #794
  • Nov 12, 2019 3:53pm Nov 12, 2019 3:53pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"POWELL vs. RBNZ - What's the Bigger Surprise?

The best way to summarize President Trump's speech to the NY Economics Club is that it could have been a lot worse for the markets. He threatened a significant increase in tariffs on China if there's no deal but at the end of the day, nothing new was revealed. President Trump made no mention on how US-China trade talks are going and said nothing about rolling back tariffs. He also did not drop any hints about his decision on EU auto tariffs - market participants were hoping for a delay but an announcement was not made. Reading between the lines, we have every reason to believe that progress in US-China trade talks have been limited. Trump also described the EU as "in many ways is worse than China" which explains why euro remained under pressure and USD/JPY dropped below 109.00 after his speech. The decision on auto tariffs are still expected to be delayed but that announcement could happen this week or next.

Looking ahead, there are some big events on the calendar in the next 24 hours that could drive up volatility in currencies the most important of which will be Fed Chairman Powell's Congressional testimony and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy announcement. The only question is which event will have the larger surprise. The market has a good sense of the Fed and RBNZ's bias but action and guidance are key.

Starting with RBNZ because that that will be hours before Powell's testimony, the market is pricing in a 76% chance of a quarter point rate cut. Yesterday NZD verticalized after the RBNZ shadow board recommend no change in rates but kiwi u-turned in Asia after inflation expectations for the fourth quarter dropped to its lowest level in 3 years. Board members feel that there's insufficient evidence to justify further easing and "the previous cut had the effect of reducing economic confidence." Yet, according to the table below that highlights changes in New Zealand's economy between policy announcements, there's been more weakness than strength. Aside from low inflation, consumer demand is softening, labor growth is weakening and economic activity is muted. The only clear improvements were in housing and market indicators. Based on these reports alone, the economy could use more stimulus. Its been 5 months since their last move, which was a surprisingly large 50bp cut and considering that this is their last policy meeting of the year, its also their last real opportunity to ease until they meet again in February. For all of these reasons, we believe there's a good chance the RBNZ will cut 25bp, bringing New Zealand rates to Australia's levels.

An hour after the rate decision Governor Orr will hold a press conference where the focus will be on what comes next. If the RBNZ leaves rates unchanged but Orr suggests that they could ease early next year or there's room for a mid-meeting cut we'll see an initial rally in NZD/USD that could take the pair as high as .6370 followed by a sell-off towards 63 cents. If the RBNZ cuts 25bp and Orr leaves the door open to additional easing, we'll see the pair below that level. However if the central bank eases but suggests that they are done, a long term bottom could be set in NZD.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a record high, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is widely expected to maintain is glass half full view of the economy. At the policy meeting the central bank cut rates and he made it clear that this was only insurance against the risks of softer global growth. Not much changed since then outside of the push higher in stocks. Growth is muted and trade is still a question mark. As such, we expect Powell to describe the labor market as strong and say that he expects the economy to continue to grow at a moderate rate. He'll also imply that no further easing is likely as "monetary policy is in a good place." Rate hikes are also not on the horizon and the performance of the dollar will depend on whether the stronger message is no more rate cuts or low rates for long. Between Powell and RBNZ, the Fed Chair's speech should have a greater impact on currencies but the Reserve Bank, whose plans are unclear could deliver the larger surprise. Aside from these 2 events, US, UK and Germany's consumer price reports are scheduled for release. Higher inflationary pressures are expected in the US given the rise in oil prices." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #795
  • Nov 12, 2019 4:14pm Nov 12, 2019 4:14pm
Quoting TyLamai
Fundies: Truths and Rumours. "POWELL vs. RBNZ - What's the Bigger Surprise? The best way to summarize President Trump's speech to the NY Economics Club is that it could have been a lot worse for the markets. He threatened a significant increase in tariffs on China if there's no deal but at the end of the day, nothing new was revealed. President Trump made no mention on how US-China trade talks are going and said nothing about rolling back tariffs. He also did not drop any hints about his decision on EU auto tariffs - market participants were hoping...
Trading Nuggets!:

When a trader first encounters fundamentals a HUGE paradigm shift is demanded on his/her trading psyche. BUT...if you stick with it (even when you have NO CLUE what is being communicated, suggested, or inferred) eventually you begin to get an idea of what is being communicated.

How do fundies relate with basketing (FOR ME)?
Fundies = the FUEL required to move my basket. I do not care for lazy basket moves which is what you get mostly when there are no fundamentals to PUSH it in a direction.

Just because the driving currencies have aligned doesn't mean you will have momentum. Fundies bring the much needed momentum to my trades.

I guess what I'm saying is: Stick with the fundamental interludes which I post here from time to time. TRY to apply it to your trading to get an idea of where the market MIGHT be headed in the medium to long term. Bear in mind though that fundies are made up of truths and rumours (i.e. it can be manipulated - in the short term - by brokers or the so-called "big boys"). But then, that's why I trade the H4, it filters out a LOT of the "noise".

Fundies ALSO allow me to gauge the "best" times to add positions to (or subtract positions from) an existing basket. Like today/tomorrow...I'll be asking myself questions like:
"What would happen if the fundamentals possibilities highlighted in RED above actually occur?"
"Would I have extra positions set in place to take advantage of such an occurrence?"
etcetera, etcetera.

Anyway, hope that helped someone.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #796
  • Nov 13, 2019 4:17am Nov 13, 2019 4:17am
If you like to load more entries, here is one more opportunity.

Join before the boat sails..
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  • #797
  • Nov 13, 2019 4:56am Nov 13, 2019 4:56am
Quoting TyLamai
Fundies: Truths and Rumours. "POWELL vs. RBNZ - What's the Bigger Surprise? The best way to summarize President Trump's speech to the NY Economics Club is that it could have been a lot worse for the markets. He threatened a significant increase in tariffs on China if there's no deal but at the end of the day, nothing new was revealed. President Trump made no mention on how US-China trade talks are going and said nothing about rolling back tariffs. He also did not drop any hints about his decision on EU auto tariffs - market participants were hoping...
Im a fan of your "Fundies: Truths and Rumours" highlight, really helpful, thank you.
  • #798
  • Nov 13, 2019 5:43am Nov 13, 2019 5:43am
Quoting trieuVhh
{quote} Im a fan of your "Fundies: Truths and Rumours" highlight, really helpful, thank you.
Wow trieuVhh hearing that means a lot to me. Very encouraging.

Stick with it and watch how the "haze" will dissipate.

Happy to be of service.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #799
  • Nov 13, 2019 8:12pm Nov 13, 2019 8:12pm
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #800
  • Nov 14, 2019 3:42am Nov 14, 2019 3:42am
Quoting TyLamai
{image} Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
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So far, so good.

The Red news releases so far today support the Sell basket: A "weak" AUD, GBP, and NZD works well for me.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
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