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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #821
  • Nov 15, 2019 4:38am Nov 15, 2019 4:38am
Quoting Valuejager
{quote} @Bishopdotun, @R4M - your chart looks like an efficient way of what I am trying to make. I got the R4M AllPairs EA set to sell short OR long (not both) to follow the trend on a C5 basket (the blue/purpel dots). and get in on the extremes of the R4M AllPairs Dots. To bad the EA is not working on anything else then standaard forex pairs or on offline charts. I only trade C5 basket. On the 5 single charts I have the R4M-BDX-ADR indicator to visualise the extremes as well. My chart : {image}
Valuejager,

Although not an EA, Steve generously shared a R4M-TMA version indicator that works with off-line charts...

Check the post:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12595539

Thanks
  • #822
  • Nov 15, 2019 4:40am Nov 15, 2019 4:40am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @Valuejager -- I've experimented a bit with the BDX indicator on basket charts and I'm not sure it is suitable for basket trading. Looking at your chart it appears you are using the Tidane indicator to trade away from price extremes. But if you look closely you'll see it is really delayed -- the actual bars for those Tidane transitions are quite far away from where the red and green circles appear on the chart. I don't think that trading away from extreme prices works particularly well in the case of basket trading. Another thing...
Steve,

Anything from the stables of Steve and Bishop for us Basketeers. Christmas is just around the corner...

Thanks
  • #823
  • Nov 15, 2019 5:40am Nov 15, 2019 5:40am
In the past couple of days we've been opportune to witness great contributions from @Valuejager @Blaiserboy @Simontw @robots4me @fmsfx @bishopdotun @aaven

...and the list goes on and on.

We are very grateful for that! Keep it coming guys.

*Remember: Iron...sharpeneth iron.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #824
  • Nov 15, 2019 5:41am Nov 15, 2019 5:41am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"FX Ending Week with a Whimper

FX markets were very quiet on the final session of the week as traders were content to tread water amidst very little fresh newsflow and no major economic releases.

Both kiwi and Aussie firmed in Asia after a big selloff the day before, but both pairs remained under key levels as news from the region suggests that slowdown shows no signs of abating and interest rate policy may need to be cut further.

In Europe, the EURUSD has bounced off the 1.1000 figure and remains steady for now. This week Germany has been able to narrowly avoid a recession and that has been a double-edged sword for the currency. On the one hand, it shows that organic demand is stronger in the region than originally thought, but on the other, it allows for further complacency on the part of German politicians who continue to refuse the idea of additional fiscal stimulus. For now, the 1.1000 level appears to be the equilibrium level for the pair as markets await news.

In North America today the focus will be on US Retail Sales which are expected to rebound to 0.3% from -0.1% the month prior. With employment steady, the assumption is that the consumer will continue to spend setting for a healthy Christmas season. A beat on the data could spur a rally in USDJPY back to 109.00 and could lift the S&P further into record territory, but a miss could jar the markets which have clearly grown complacent over the past few days as volatility has compressed. With business capex spending in contraction, the consumer remains the only final hope of bulls to keep the growth growing." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #825
  • Nov 15, 2019 6:02am Nov 15, 2019 6:02am
The Sell basket is still valid.

C5 H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w13e1a_#TyC5#05H4.png Size: 57 KB


Same plotlines on the C5 H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w13e1b_#TyC5#05H1.png Size: 59 KB


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #826
  • Nov 15, 2019 12:47pm Nov 15, 2019 12:47pm
Hope you guys had a good week with the baskets!

I mentioned previously the baskets that I trade that are different from the C5. One is the C8 Basket that I picked up from a thread started by GVC. He found that there were some constant loser pairs in the C14, but also that he missed out on some pips by only trading the C5. I call the C8 my "Risk-On/Risk-Off Basket" because it basically pits all the highly volatile pairs against the USD and JPY. The C8 pairs are: AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD. Try it. It very closely resembles the movements of the C5.

My other Basket I call "The Crosses". This beast still scares me on a daily basis. . It consists of 4 pairs only. CXS pairs: EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD. On the M15 TF, these pairs are very highly correlated and the moves can be like putting yourself in a tumble-dryer... Big potential for extreme pips - both positive AND negative.

Here is a screenshot I took earlier today of my CXS basket to show you once again how beautifully that Pivot indi works on offline charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #CXS#M15.png Size: 42 KB


And here is EAX that I have specifically set up with these 4 pairs only. (I use another set file of EAX for my C8 basket). I circled the buttons that I mainly use (apart from the built-in basket TP & SL features as well as the trailing function).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EAX-CXS.png Size: 101 KB


Ty, I must also add that I greatly appreciate your fundamental news posts.

Cheers all and enjoy the weekend.

Lee
Fix your thoughts on what is true, and honorable, and right, and pure...
  • #827
  • Nov 15, 2019 3:55pm Nov 15, 2019 3:55pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Valuejager, Although not an EA, Steve generously shared a R4M-TMA version indicator that works with off-line charts... Check the post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12595539 Thanks
@aaven - Thank you for pointing to the R4M-TMA indicator, I did install it on the same day Steve put it up
I must say it gives me a general direction if you look at the angle of the TMA lines and a nice translation if you come from the MM(money maker) pages.

Just a naughty confession, With my last post I was hoping that Steve would share his indicators which Bishop was showing here D
They are so clean and clutter free. Maybe wishfull thinking ;D sorry for that.

Cheers,
Arjen
This is not the end, its the end of the beginning. W.C 1942
  • #828
  • Nov 15, 2019 4:36pm Nov 15, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @Valuejager -- I've experimented a bit with the BDX indicator on basket charts and I'm not sure it is suitable for basket trading. Looking at your chart it appears you are using the Tidane indicator to trade away from price extremes. But if you look closely you'll see it is really delayed -- the actual bars for those Tidane transitions are quite far away from where the red and green circles appear on the chart. I don't think that trading away from extreme prices works particularly well in the case of basket trading. Another thing...
@robots4me - really preciate your comment to my post and after some mostly heavy thinking and some testing, I think you are right. Its apples and pears.

Cheers,
Arjen
This is not the end, its the end of the beginning. W.C 1942
  • #829
  • Nov 16, 2019 7:39am Nov 16, 2019 7:39am
I posted re BBMA a few pages back as it is how I check the direction of pairs.

Looking at GJ and GU BBMA gives a almost full BBMA cycle on GJ and full-cycle set up (Ext>Must TP>CSD>REENTRY

So good news for the sell basket.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 72 KB
EX BBMA trader focusing on REE code.
  • #830
  • Nov 16, 2019 9:43am Nov 16, 2019 9:43am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"Dollar Ends Bruising Week - More Losses Ahead?

It has been a challenging week for the US dollar as the greenback sold off against most of the major currencies. Weaker US data combined with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's benign outlook for the US economy reinforced the market's view that low rates will be here to stay. Trade talks also hit a snag this week and the ongoing uncertainty is taking its toll on currencies. Unless President Trump officially announces rollback of some US tariffs (which is possible), the dollar is vulnerable to further losses against euro and the Japanese Yen. For other currencies, risk aversion will offset demand, leading to restrained moves in sterling, the Australian and Canadian dollars.

We've learned this past week that while consumer prices edged higher in October, manufacturing activity slowed and the recovery in consumer demand was shallower than expected. Fed Chairman Powell is holding onto the view that the economy is recovering but the slow pace means that monetary policy needs to remain accommodative. According to Powell, there's a lot to like about today's labor market but it's a puzzle as to why we've not seen more uptick in wages. This may have to do with low inflation and the fact that lower inflation and lower growth is the new normal. This isn't likely to change in the near term, which is why interest rate hikes are not on horizon. He also admits that there are downside risks and there's nothing booming in the economy that could go bust. Slower global growth, Brexit and trade are the main concerns and for the time being, there's no relief in sight. Of course, all of that could change if President Trump decides to delay or cancel the December 15th Chinese tariffs or better yet, combine that with tariff rollbacks but his recent language suggest that he wants to play hardball. Looking ahead, the main focus next week will be on the FOMC minutes, more manufacturing sector reports and trade. Barring any positive surprises, we expect USD/JPY to head back down to 108.

Euro could also make a run for 1.11 ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech on Friday. One of the biggest stories last week was that Germany avoided recession. This set a bottom for EUR/USD and we expect the single currency to outperform the dollar, sterling, Aussie and yen in the week ahead. Lagarde could throw wrench in our positive outlook for the euro but she's not speaking until the end of the week. Since the beginning of the month, we've seen a number of upside surprises in EZ and German data including factory orders, retail sales and ZEW. We are still waiting for an official US decision on EU auto tariffs (may it be delays or not) but Friday will be the big day for euro with November PMIs and Lagarde on the calendar.

We also like the New Zealand dollar. The RBNZ surprised the market when they left interest rates unchanged this week at 1%. According to Governor Orr, there is no urgency to act at this point because the lower NZ$ is supporting the economy. The central bank feels that policy is already very stimulatory and rates will need to stay low for a long period of time. They think that the economy is near a turning point and there could be acceleration but according to RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand, "if pickup fails to materialize, we'll do more." The central bank is done for the year but they haven't ruled out additional easing in 2020. In fact, RBNZ Assistant Governor Hawkesby says February is a "live" meeting but a rate cut would require a material change to their outlook. Governor Orr seems to agree - he said we're starting to see signs of pickup in activity but the door is open for a rate cut if needed. Considering that the next policy meeting won't be for another 3 months, the RBNZ's decision to leaves rates unchanged should have residual impact on the currency.

The Australian dollar on the other hand took a nosedive on the back of disappointing labor data and this divergence in the performance of the antipodean currencies drove AUD/NZD to its lowest level since August. Job growth unexpectedly declined in October with more than 19K full time and part time jobs lost. This drove the unemployment rate up to 5.3% and the participation rate down a tick to 66%. Between US-China trade tensions and this report, investors turned on the Australian dollar hard this week driving AUD to its weakest level in nearly a month. Dovish RBA minutes could keep A$ under pressure.

The Canadian dollar on the other hand is setting up for a recovery. After rallying for 2 weeks straight, the stability in oil prices and sell-off in the US dollar led the pair to find resistance at the 200-day SMA. Next week Canadian CPI and retail sales are scheduled for release. There will also be speeches from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Deputy Governor Wilkins. Poloz spoke earlier this week and he did not say much about the economy or monetary policy outside of a comment that wage inflation is now above 4% by most measures and that the labor market is telling us more than GDP data.

Last but certainly not least, sterling shrugged off back to back disappointments in economic data to end the week at 8 day highs near 1.29. Brexit is taking its toll on the UK economy but investors are relieved that the UK won't be spiraling out the EU and that Nigel Farage reduced his Brexit Party challenge this past week. With that said, we can't put lipstick on the pig. The UK economy is slowing - over the past week, we seen GDP growth fall short of expectations, the trade deficit widen, industrial production contract for the second month in a row, job losses mount, wage growth ease and most importantly CPI and retail sales decline in October. If next week's manufacturing, service and construction sector PMI reports show a further slowdown in November, GBP/USD won't be able to hold onto its gains." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #831
  • Nov 16, 2019 10:42am Nov 16, 2019 10:42am
Like I've mentioned severally recently, we have a RANGING basket. A ranging basket which (IMHO) is skewed to the bearish side. This means, we look to sell high and BANK low until further notice.

One might wonder why I won't also buy low and bank high?

Well if you've been following this thread closely you already know why: Because the C5 H4 basket is still signalling a Sell basket.

I've attached below a GBPJPY H4 chart (which closely mirrors the C5 H4 offline basket chart) so that you can readily see the range where price is locked within. For this any basket to...fly (Buy or Sell), price MUST breakout of this range (for good or bad as the case may be). Until this happens, I'll just have to take what the market gives as it gives it.


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w13f1a_GBPJPYH4.png Size: 49 KB
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #832
  • Nov 16, 2019 11:32am Nov 16, 2019 11:32am
Quoting LifeHunt3r
Hope you guys had a good week with the baskets! I mentioned previously the baskets that I trade that are different from the C5. One is the C8 Basket that I picked up from a thread started by GVC. He found that there were some constant loser pairs in the C14, but also that he missed out on some pips by only trading the C5. I call the C8 my "Risk-On/Risk-Off Basket" because it basically pits all the highly volatile pairs against the USD and JPY. The C8 pairs are: AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY,...
NOTE: THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG POST (but a very important one (IMHO))!

Re: The fundies, you are most welcome LifeHunt3r, happy to be of service. Please permit me to use your post as a point of reference to dig further into the matter below. Thanks.

Meanwhile your setup above is looking really fly and snazzy! Cool.

I might look into creating a TyC8 and TyCX to mirror yours...

I once tried trading the NZD7 basket as is and the market INJURED me really good!

What happened?
Well as @robots4me says, the offline basket chart is a VIRTUAL index of pairs...What I did was to try/attempt to trade the NZD7 basket as though it were real and I paid a hefty price for that.

Here's how that went: AUDNZD, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD were ALL heading down (great Sells), so the offline basket was showing/signalling a great SELL signal and I opened a Sell NZD script to that effect (the idea being that NZD was STRONG yeah?)...unfortunately for me, EURNZD and GBPNZD were GIANT buys!!! And those TWO pairs ALONE were ENOUGH to drag ALL the other NZD crosses into the gutter! Lol...

Since then, I stopped trading currency baskets which have pairs not quoted on the same side.
For example: It's okay to trade the JPY basket because ALL the JPYs are quoted on the same (right-hand) side: AUDJPY, CADJPY, CHFJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, and USDJPY.
Another good currency basket is the EUR basket (all quoted on the left-hand) side: EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY, EURNZD, and EURUSD.

Any other currency basket (having not arranged listings) is (IMHO) not an exact mirror of reality.

As can be seen from your C8 and CXS baskets above, everything is neatly arranged in their respective, proper sides:
C8 => Chaotic pairs / USD+JPY or
CXS => EUR+GBP / Commodity pairs (in this case AUD and NZD alone...others MAY choose to add CAD for good measure).

Sorry to have ranted this long but I guess I really like what you've done above.

Attention @robots4me and all other coders in the house...
NOW...(in my mind, and I might be DEAD wrong), the MOST efficient way to get a "true" reflection of a Currency's basket strength/weakness, it to neatly "arrange" the pairs in such a way that the quotes will be where they are meant to be.

- Can this be done?
- Does it make sense to do this?

Take the NZD currency basket above as an example:
Can the offline basket be "FORCED" to reflect this?:

*NZDAUD (flipped unnaturally)
NZDCAD
NZDCHF
*NZDEUR (flipped unnaturally)
*NZDGBP (flipped unnaturally)
NZDJPY
NZDUSD

As you can see, ALL the NZDs are now neatly arranged on the Left-hand side of the basket and any signal would/should reflect the true direction of the basket strength/weakness. Like I said: this is ALL in my head and I have been known to be crazy! Lol.

Anyway guys, is this something we should look at?

I actually believe that this was PART of the "problem" with baskets like the C14 which include (EURCHF, EURGBP, GBPCHF, USDCHF, etc., etc.). Most times basketters had no clue what to make of the direction of these guys when the C14 basket signal is given; To Buy or to Sell!?

Okay, I pause! Whew...

Guys, I'll like your take on the above (if y'all are chanced and can find the time, that is).

Have a great weekend folks,

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #833
  • Nov 16, 2019 12:39pm Nov 16, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} NOTE: THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG POST (but a very important one (IMHO))! Re: The fundies, you are most welcome LifeHunt3r, happy to be of service. Please permit me to use your post as a point of reference to dig further into the matter below. Thanks. Meanwhile your setup above is looking really fly and snazzy! Cool. I might look into creating a TyC8 and TyCX to mirror yours... I once tried trading the NZD7 basket as is and the market INJURED me really good! What happened? Well as @robots4me says, the offline basket chart is a VIRTUAL index...
Ty,

There could be a work around for a given currency- Lite Forex offers currency Index Charts and all the 8 currency indexes are available.

Attached is an index chart for EUR-

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-Index.PNG Size: 51 KB


One can directly run their analyses

Now, if you want to mix currencies-then offline charts is the way to go. Sometime back, i remember using some inverse indicator that generates the mirror/inverse ex:AUDNZD to NZDAUD. Not really sure if an off-line chart can be created using regular NZD-NZDCAD+NZDCHF with the generated inverse of other currencies: USDAUD+USDGBP

Thanks
  • #834
  • Edited 6:48pm Nov 16, 2019 6:15pm | Edited 6:48pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} NOTE: THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG POST (but a very important one (IMHO))! Re: The fundies, you are most welcome LifeHunt3r, happy to be of service. Please permit me to use your post as a point of reference to dig further into the matter below. Thanks. Meanwhile your setup above is looking really fly and snazzy! Cool. I might look into creating a TyC8 and TyCX to mirror yours... I once tried trading the NZD7 basket as is and the market INJURED me really good! What happened? Well as @robots4me says, the offline basket chart is a VIRTUAL index...
Hello @TyLamai...

Quote
Attention @robots4me and all other coders in the house...
NOW...(in my mind, and I might be DEAD wrong), the MOST efficient way to get a "true" reflection of a Currency's basket strength/weakness, it to neatly "arrange" the pairs in such a way that the quotes will be where they are meant to be.
- Can this be done?
- Does it make sense to do this?

Can it be done? Yes -- I suppose so...
Does it make sense to do this? From the way I'm approaching your trading system -- I'd say 'no'. And here are a few of my reasons...

1. First -- some terminology. Index are the pairs that are used to generate the offline chart -- i.e. the virtual currency. For example, C5 is an index. The Index is also the virtual currency because you are trading its bars. The bars belong to a currency -- EURUSD, GBPJPY or an Index (as in basket trading). Basket is the pairs that are actually traded when you BUY/SELL. For example, you might have the basket creator indicator use C5 to create an offline chart, but when Tidane generates a BUY transition signal then you open new trades using C14. So -- to my mind, Index and Basket are two different beasts -- though related.

2. According to the rules that have been laid out here, we are trading an Index -- i.e. virtual currency. This virtual currency, by its very nature, is composed of only loosely correlated or even uncorrelated pairs. That's the idea behind an Index -- at any particular point in time, some go up and some go down. To create an index of highly-correlated pairs is no longer basket trading -- you might as well choose just one of those pairs and trade it with a larger lot size.

3. An index (and offline chart) that is composed of highly-correlated pairs not only goes against the spirit of this strategy, I think it actually harms the strategy. The Tidane indicator is well-suited for a super trend-following strategy, like we are doing here. The thing that always kills trend-following strategies are spikes -- i.e. unexpected extreme prices. But with C14 (or RB15 that @bishopdotun and I are experimenting with) -- we don't worry about spikes. If you check back in C14's history (H4 time frame) and if you had traded signal-to-signal, I don't think you'd find a spike that would have taken you out. This *IMPRECISE* feature of basket trading works to our favor. And part of this imprecision is due to using pairs that are NOT highly correlated. If you trade an Index with highly correlated pairs then I think you would again have to deal with price spikes.

4. So -- you know what the biggest problem is with basket trading? It is so ***freakin*** BORING!!! When someone asks you what you do for a hobby and you tell them you trade forex, they'll then ask how do you do that. And when you respond that you press a BUY / SELL button approximately once a month they will then look at you rather strangely. Instead of filling-in the excess time with looking for ways to extract a few extra pips, I suggest looking for another hobby -- like horse-back riding or bungee jumping...
  • #835
  • Nov 16, 2019 7:28pm Nov 16, 2019 7:28pm
@TyLamai -- there is one improvement to the Index that you might consider -- and that is to normalize the prices such that each pair is weighted equally.

Currently, the basket creator indicator performs a quick-and-dirty normalization -- dividing JPY pairs by 100. But that still results in certain pairs being weighted 2-3 times more important than others when it comes to computing the Index's OHLC values.

I don't think +/- normalization makes a big difference and I certainly haven't done exhaustive studies to claim one way is better than another. The current system as described in this thread works excellent.
  • #836
  • Nov 17, 2019 10:44am Nov 17, 2019 10:44am
Attention @robots4me and all other coders in the house...
NOW...(in my mind, and I might be DEAD wrong), the MOST efficient way to get a "true" reflection of a Currency's basket strength/weakness, it to neatly "arrange" the pairs in such a way that the quotes will be where they are meant to be.

- Can this be done?
- Does it make sense to do this?


Khalil has done something to this effect.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=529896

I personally rarely trade the index pairs but when I do I always just flip a couple of pairs. This seemed to work fairly well around the bigger news events when I first looked at trying to trade around the news.

AUDNZD, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD >> SELL
EURNZD and GBPNZD >> BUY
K.I.S.S.
  • #837
  • Nov 17, 2019 1:23pm Nov 17, 2019 1:23pm
I use this to keep an eye on the different groupings




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ffx basket scan.jpg Size: 150 KB
  • #838
  • Nov 17, 2019 1:26pm Nov 17, 2019 1:26pm
this one can be configured in several ways


Attached Image
  • #839
  • Nov 17, 2019 6:04pm Nov 17, 2019 6:04pm
To clarify what I had posted above...

Index -- these are the pairs used by the basket creator indicator to create the offline chart. You attach the Tidane indicator to the resulting offline chart and look for transition signals.

Basket -- these are the pairs that you actually trade -- that is, the pairs that you open a position when you see a transition signal.

The Index and Basket can be different -- and often are. Furthermore, when you "open" a Basket that doesn't necessarily mean you trade all the pairs in the basket in the same direction. Based on other discretionary decisions, you can choose to BUY or SELL the individual pairs however you like. To "open" a basket simply means that the index has generated a transition signal and it's time to close all the trades in the previous basket and open a new basket. The direction of each pair in the new basket is up to you -- it can either be in the direction of the trend or opposite. The basket trading rule only requires that pairs be opened and closed at the same time -- it does not require that they all be traded in the same direction.
  • #840
  • Nov 17, 2019 9:12pm Nov 17, 2019 9:12pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Ty, There could be a work around for a given currency- Lite Forex offers currency Index Charts and all the 8 currency indexes are available. Attached is an index chart for EUR- {image} One can directly run their analyses Now, if you want to mix currencies-then offline charts is the way to go. Sometime back, i remember using some inverse indicator that generates the mirror/inverse ex:AUDNZD to NZDAUD. Not really sure if an off-line chart can be created using regular NZD-NZDCAD+NZDCHF with the generated inverse of other currencies: USDAUD+USDGBP...
Thanks aaven. I know about LiteForex and used it years ago but I was hoping for an offline chart conveniently within the MT4 platform I trade off of.

Again thank you for your contribution.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
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