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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #661
  • Oct 25, 2019 4:29pm Oct 25, 2019 4:29pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Yes aaven! I wish I could lol! But the "greedy" part of me is FOCUSED more on HOW we can further maximize the "turn-around" points between Buy/Sell baskets - I've always felt that we leave TOO MUCH money on the table every time we go from a Buy basket to a Sell basket and vice versa. I TRY to minimize those pips by using tighter SLs towards what I perceive to be the "end" phases of the baskets. Anyways, just in case anyone here has any ideas which may help, PLEASE feel free to share. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Quote
But the "greedy" part of me is FOCUSED more on HOW we can further maximize the "turn-around" points between Buy/Sell baskets - I've always felt that we leave TOO MUCH money on the table every time we go from a Buy basket to a Sell basket and vice versa.

@TyLamai -- I'm still experimenting but the Stochastic oscillator -- as a momentum indicator -- may offer some relief. I've attached a chart below that shows when the Main line (blue) crosses the Signal line (dashed red) it often does a pretty good job of detecting the transition from one trend to the next. You also have the Overbought (level 80) and Oversold (level 20) lines to provide additional context.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And below I've added the Williams oscillator (using a period of 64) in yellow. The Williams is a bit faster than the Stochastic's Main line, but when Williams crosses BOTH the Stochastic's Main and Signal lines either in the Overbought or Oversold regions then that might be a clue the wind is changing direction.

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  • #662
  • Oct 25, 2019 4:52pm Oct 25, 2019 4:52pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @TyLamai -- I'm still experimenting but the Stochastic oscillator -- as a momentum indicator -- may offer some relief. I've attached a chart below that shows when the Main line (blue) crosses the Signal line (dashed red) it often does a pretty good job of detecting the transition from one trend to the next. You also have the Overbought (level 80) and Oversold (level 20) lines to provide additional context. {image} And below I've added the Williams oscillator (using a period of 64) in yellow. The Williams is a bit faster than the...
Now we are talking! Great contribution R4M. Thank you. I'll spend the weekend studying this.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #663
  • Edited Oct 26, 2019 2:57am Oct 25, 2019 6:16pm | Edited Oct 26, 2019 2:57am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Yes aaven! I wish I could lol! But the "greedy" part of me is FOCUSED more on HOW we can further maximize the "turn-around" points between Buy/Sell baskets - I've always felt that we leave TOO MUCH money on the table every time we go from a Buy basket to a Sell basket and vice versa. I TRY to minimize those pips by using tighter SLs towards what I perceive to be the "end" phases of the baskets. Anyways, just in case anyone here has any ideas which may help, PLEASE feel free to share. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty

TLDR: understand the driver of the current move. If that changes, change your position.

i have gone into this journey from couple of weeks back. I was not happy when C5 makes a lot of pips then all of it reverses on me. Here are what I found so far.

1.) Tidane is just based on a Bollinger Band. It switches color when the price closed in the other side of the band. Therefore, if you want earlier exits/entries, just replace Tidane with BB and watch where the price is inside it. This way, you could anticipate your move other than be surprised when it switched suddenly. It is good for markets that makes impulse moves and persists on it it. This is why it is good for Ty’s basket style. Ty’s basket style is based on C5 moves which is consistent with fundies. Fundamental moves starts on impulse and persists for a while. If that news keeps on changing, then you have to wait till price close on the other side of the band which is usually farther during this times. Thus you get whipsawed like crazy.
2.) HAS is the crossover of 2 MAs of the close of Heikin Ashi candle. Which means it is triple smoothed. It is good for persistent trending markets but bad for volatile ones. Same characteristics with Tidane. Both are for trend trading thus dont believe on moves that lack fundamental catalysts.
3.) Using oscillators or RSI would keep you from entering strongly trending markets which is what the first 2 were supposed to do. So they would cancel each other out if you use both together. Use oscillators in ranging markets(no fundy move catalyst) then use the other two when there are fundamental changes in direction.

I decided to scrap HAS altogether as it is triple smoothed and difficult for me to anticipate when it is about to switch. I would then replace Tidane with BB and enter/exit early if I am sure that it is gonna close beyond its outer bands, this is not possible to do with HAS.

Recently, i decided to scrap all indicators. Instead, I watch if all C5 pairs are in a significant support/resistance/fib conlfuence on the daily to determine my direction, i then wait for some fundamental catalysts that would change the direction. This becomes my bias. I then enter on fib (50/61.8) impulsive pull backs with a very tight SLs. I get stopped out a lot, but it pays for itself when it finally makes the turn. This explains why I am able to enter the top as shown in the picture.

The best thing about all this is, I can trade with my mobile phone. Good setup for those with day jobs like me.
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  • #664
  • Edited 7:58pm Oct 25, 2019 7:46pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting volumeprice
{quote} TLDR: understand the driver of the current move. If that changes, change your position. i have gone into this journey from couple of weeks back. I was not happy when C5 makes a lot of pips then all of it reverses on me. Here are what I found so far. 1.) Tidane is just based on a Bollinger Band. It switches color when the price closed in the other side of the band. Therefore, if you want earlier exits/entries, just replace Tidane with BB and watch where the price is inside it. This way, you could anticipate your move other than be surprised...

Using the idea of bollinger, I have also been trading C5 via a BBMA chart. I would see the Tidane color start to change then check via a BBMA chart to see if price had crossed mid bb. This plus the crossing of mid bb = CSD in BBMA terms provides a strong indication of change.

When price comes out of BB and Ma does not it indicates momentum. When price comes out of bb and Ma also come out then this is sign of reversal we call extreme. They all provide a picture of what comes next.

That describes the R of the REE code.
H1 and M15 then also have an Extreme again a sign of reversal which further cements the buying or selling move.

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EX BBMA trader focusing on REE code.
  • #665
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:07am Oct 28, 2019 12:07am
Hey Guys,

Excellent thread, I originally got into basket trading a few years back but now I'm looking to get back into it and have been having some tech issues.
Maybe I'm missing something simple ...
Whenever I build a basket using the Basket Creator v3 670et ... even after force loading the data ... it builds the offline chart with no data within it.
Any ideas fellas?

P.S. Market Watch window is showing all also ...
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  • #666
  • Oct 28, 2019 2:25am Oct 28, 2019 2:25am
Quoting Coolbudz223
Hey Guys, Excellent thread, I originally got into basket trading a few years back but now I'm looking to get back into it and have been having some tech issues. Maybe I'm missing something simple ... Whenever I build a basket using the Basket Creator v3 670et ... even after force loading the data ... it builds the offline chart with no data within it. Any ideas fellas? P.S. Market Watch window is showing all also ... {image}
Welcome Coolbudz223,

Please search this thread to read up on how baskets were created with pairs which include suffixes and prefixes.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #667
  • Oct 28, 2019 5:33am Oct 28, 2019 5:33am
Hello TyLamai,

I started my first small C5 basket trade on this sunny morning. I`m looking forward to your updates and screen shots.
I basically got in on the big red dot on H4.
Cheers for the very clear instructions at post 1 and the 34 pages.

Vj
This is not the end, its the end of the beginning. W.C 1942
  • #668
  • Oct 28, 2019 6:27am Oct 28, 2019 6:27am
Quoting Valuejager
Hello TyLamai, I started my first small C5 basket trade on this sunny morning. I`m looking forward to your updates and screen shots. I basically got in on the big red dot on H4. Cheers for the very clear instructions at post 1 and the 34 pages. Vj
Hello Valuejager. Welcome to the Basket Knights thread.

As far as the system goes you sure entered at the right place. Everything else remains the same as was on Friday (apart from a DC forming on the C12 H1): C12 H4 is still signaling a Sell basket.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
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My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #669
  • Oct 28, 2019 6:51am Oct 28, 2019 6:51am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Hello Valuejager. Welcome to the Basket Knights thread. As far as the system goes you sure entered at the right place. Everything else remains the same as was on Friday (apart from a DC forming on the C12 H1): C12 H4 is still signaling a Sell basket. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image}
a noob question?

if i keep open offline chart, is it update or new bar will add?
  • #670
  • Oct 28, 2019 7:01am Oct 28, 2019 7:01am
Quoting munna00
{quote} a noob question? if i keep open offline chart, is it update or new bar will add?
Read Post#1 again (ASSUMING you have already).

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #671
  • Oct 28, 2019 7:02am Oct 28, 2019 7:02am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

Heads Up.
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #672
  • Oct 28, 2019 8:31am Oct 28, 2019 8:31am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} My previous Buy basket Profit Tally = +3,171 pips total banked with -443 pips closed at NEW H4 Sell basket signal = +2,728 pips Gained. {image} Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image}
C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...0 pips banked so far with -284 pips floating.
Attached Image

*Just so some of you can see that DDs exist in this system...


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #673
  • Oct 28, 2019 9:07am Oct 28, 2019 9:07am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Hello Valuejager. Welcome to the Basket Knights thread. As far as the system goes you sure entered at the right place. Everything else remains the same as was on Friday (apart from a DC forming on the C12 H1): C12 H4 is still signaling a Sell basket. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image}
Hello
When and how do you regard this DC on 1 hour as confirmed?
thanks
Regards
  • #674
  • Oct 28, 2019 9:21am Oct 28, 2019 9:21am
Quoting howard
{quote} Hello When and how do you regard this DC on 1 hour as confirmed? thanks
If I remember correctly a LOT of this has been discussed on this thread...below is one such example:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12549271

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #675
  • Oct 28, 2019 2:03pm Oct 28, 2019 2:03pm
My H4 C5 offline chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is not the end, its the end of the beginning. W.C 1942
  • #676
  • Oct 28, 2019 2:48pm Oct 28, 2019 2:48pm
Quoting Valuejager
My H4 C5 offline chart {image}
Looking good Valuejager.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #677
  • Oct 28, 2019 3:22pm Oct 28, 2019 3:22pm
Bold enough to get a little extra GJ on retracement


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@TyLamai - When do you bank the pips?
at the change of color/direction at the end of the trend or in between at DC and rinse and repeat ?

Vj
This is not the end, its the end of the beginning. W.C 1942
  • #678
  • Oct 28, 2019 3:30pm Oct 28, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting Valuejager
Bold enough to get a little extra GJ on retracement {image} {image} @TyLamai - When do you bank the pips? at the change of color/direction at the end of the trend or in between at DC and rinse and repeat ? Vj
It's really not cast in stone. A myriad of reasons inform my decision to bank pips. E.g. Say by Wednesday after noon I'm in Profit and FOMC is approaching, I MAY set Trailing Stops just in case @FOMC price goes against me...I MAY also decide I'm in good profits and sit the High Impact news out.

Above's just one example.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #679
  • Oct 28, 2019 3:40pm Oct 28, 2019 3:40pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"USDJPY Hits 7 Week Highs, Big Week Ahead for Dollar

Buckle your seat belts as it will be a busy week in the forex market. There are 3 central bank rate decisions, inflation reports, US non-farm payrolls, GDP, Chinese PMIs and a number of other market moving economic reports on the calendar. Monday was a quiet start but strong gains in stocks and corresponding rally in USD/JPY is a sign that investors are approaching the week with a positive attitude. This sentiment is driven by the European Union's offer to extend the Brexit deadline by 3 months and President Trump's comment that a China trade pact could be signed at the APEC meeting next month in Chile. Brexit and US-China trade tensions have been the two biggest risks for the global economy this year's and while neither disappeared completely, today's developments are a sign that they are moving in the right direction. With the S&P 500 hitting fresh record highs, investors are clearly pleased.

They are also encouraged by the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this week. Typically, interest rate reductions are preceded by weakness in the currency but USD/JPY hit a 7 week high today above 109. With Fed fund futures pricing in 90% chance of easing on Wednesday this move suggests that investors are looking at this week's move as the Fed's last. The last rate cut was not unanimous and chances are there will also be resistance to this week's move as well. However, the slowdown in manufacturing and service sector activity along with the decline in inflation gives the doves the evidence they need to act. With that said, we still believe that USD/JPY should pull back ahead of the Fed's monetary policy announcement and the 200-day simple moving average near 109.00 would be the perfect barrier to further gains.

Although the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also have policy meetings, US data and the market's appetite for dollars should dictate currency flows this week. Aside from FOMC, third quarter GDP and the October non-farm payrolls report are also scheduled for release. Coming hours before the Fed is expected to lower interest rates for the third time this year, GDP should have a greater impact on the dollar than NFP. Weaker consumer spending and trade activity suggests that growth will slow but the forecasts are fairly low with economists looking for GDP to ease to 1.5% from 2% in Q3.

Meanwhile the strongest currency today was sterling. Even though the UK Parliament rejected Prime Minister Johnson's request for an early election, the market was pleased that the European Union offered the UK a 3 month extension that included an option to leave earlier. They also ruled out further negotiating over the withdrawal agreement, which is pretty the terms that Johnson was hoping for. The UK now has a clear path forward and while Johnson is pushing for another election after his December poll, the focus now should be on the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. In the near term we expect a relief rally in sterling but in the long run, the economy will suffer from Brexit.

It was no surprise that the weakest currencies today were the funding currencies, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. However the New Zealand dollar also failed to benefit from the improvement in risk appetite. This is unusual because the improvement in US-China trade relations should benefit NZD. However the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is one of only two central banks still expected to lower rates this year and they will be the only ones left after the Fed eases on Wednesday." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


*This MIGHT turn out to be that type of week were your knowledge in Hedging will be called into play...

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #680
  • Oct 28, 2019 6:36pm Oct 28, 2019 6:36pm
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Discounted?
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