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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #741
  • Aug 25, 2019 3:38pm Aug 25, 2019 3:38pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market printed consecutive bullish candlesticks on the weekly time frame in the past two weeks just after price action entered a significant horizontal support zone around the 1.19980 area. Price action is presently located around a horizontal resistance area, which may witness some sideways operation in the early part of this week. Should bulls successfully breach the resistance, the 1.24250 area is likely to be next barrier for bulls to handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_August 25, 2019.png Size: 58 KB


A falling channel (blue) is in operation on the daily time frame. Presently, bulls are taking price operation northwards within the channel. But they are likely to face a few barriers; for example, the monthly pivot around 1.23270, which adjoins a minor horizontal resistance; and then the channel resistance trendline. At any rate, the technicals support a northward move in the short term; but in the medium term, bears will be poised for a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_August 25, 2019.png Size: 57 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #742
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:44am Aug 27, 2019 2:44am
I did not anticipate the gap up of the XAUUSD on this week's open but I had the resistance zone the price action penetrated identified on my trading chart. Now that the gap has been filled, I am looking for a decline in bullish momentum. If the today's daily close did not take out the high of the inverted hammer printed yesterday at the 1540 resistance zone, a sell trading opportunity with a good R:R is feasible.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Technicals on the XAUUSD weekly time frame still favour a bullish market mode. The candlesticks are predominantly bullish and the momentum for a positive move has been strong. Technically, any negative move will be corrective in nature. {image} On the H4 time frame, the 1531.95 area has held as a horizontal resistance. Presently, price action is located in the area. In fact, the 1485.10/1531.95 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) represents a range for a seesaw of price action. This represents a difficulty of...
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  • #743
  • Aug 27, 2019 3:02am Aug 27, 2019 3:02am
It is important to remember that the price action broke out of the 1480/1530 horizontal range/channel that was identified in post #737 here on Sunday. If there is a bearish print on an H4 closing basis around the 1530 channel resistance, we may have a good basis for a sell trade.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
I did not anticipate the gap up of the XAUUSD on this week's open but I had the resistance zone the price action penetrated identified on my trading chart. Now that the gap has been filled, I am looking for a decline in bullish momentum. If the today's daily close did not take out the high of the inverted hammer printed yesterday at the 1540 resistance zone, a sell trading opportunity with a good R:R is feasible. Trade safe. KP {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #744
  • Sep 1, 2019 3:01pm Sep 1, 2019 3:01pm
Silver/USD Weekly Technical Outlook

The Silver/USD market printed a relatively big bullish candlestick in August 2019 that broke out of a consolidation zone within which it has operated since August 2018. Presently, market operation has entered a resistance zone which was rejected in September 2017.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is a strong bullish influence of the market on the weekly time frame and the technicals are in support. Of course, we can expect a southward pullback in correction, particularly as price action has moved too far from the mean and is presently located at a horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the technicals still favour bulls, but the momentum is weakening. We may see a bearish corrective move upon the breakdown of a minor rising trendline (blue) from the low of August 23. However, as long as the longer rising trendline (red) from the low of July 9, 2019 is intact on a daily closing basis, we can expect bulls to maintain market control.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SILVERH4_September 1, 2019.png Size: 46 KB


I am bearish silver/usd in the short term.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #745
  • Sep 1, 2019 3:29pm Sep 1, 2019 3:29pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, GBPCAD market operation is presently in a support zone which was rejected in October 2017. This zone is some pips above another support zone which the market rejected in October 2016, and may be attractive to bears. Furthermore, it should be noted that market operation rallied northwards from a congestion zone in September 2013 and its lower part, which is around 1.54930, may be a long-term target of bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, the market has been trading above a horizontal channel, 1.58820/1.66570, (bound by magenta horizontal lines) since mid-November 2017. In mid-June 2019, price action returned to the area and continued southwards within the channel. Since then there has been a bearish disposition of market in the zone, but with a decline in momentum. Price action retraced from the 1.58820 horizontal support zone three weeks ago and has continued northwards. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick with wicks on both ends, which indicates that bears are yet to take over market control. We may see further northward retracement but any retracement to a significant resistance, with a role flip, is likely to result in momentum for a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the daily time frame is presently operating in a rising channel (blue) in the context of a larger falling trend. This, technically, is a retracement as the market structure is still in favour of bears. Last Friday, the market printed an indecision candlestick around a minor horizontal support in confluence with the channel support. Technically, we may see further northward move to an area of value such as the channel resistance trendline or the immediate minor resistance around 1.64020/1.65370 (bound by black horizontal lines). This may extend to a retest of the 1.66570 area, which price action broke down a few weeks back; as observed on the weekly time frame. This will be a corrective move and will potentially give way to a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADDaily_September 1, 2019.png Size: 56 KB


I hold a bearish bias on this pair upon a short-term bullish pullback.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #746
  • Sep 1, 2019 3:40pm Sep 1, 2019 3:40pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD price action has been operating within a wide falling channel (blue) on the monthly time frame for many years. Presently, market operation is southwards within the channel. Last month, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed at the 1.10630 horizontal support area; an area which was last visited in May 2017.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action is grinding southwards within a minor falling channel (magenta) on the weekly time frame, but there has been limited southward momentum. Last week, the market printed a relatively big bearish candlestick which broke below a consolidation zone where price action had been ambivalent for four weeks. Presently, price action has penetrated the 1.09970 horizontal support zone and we may expect a sideways or retracement of price action in the area before any directional momentum. A breakdown of the 1.09970 horizontal support will likely see bears target the 1.08540 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Technicals on the daily time frame favour bears but we may expect a pullback of price action in correction. The 1.10630 area is a value area which price action may retest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_September 1, 2019.png Size: 62 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #747
  • Sep 8, 2019 2:46pm Sep 8, 2019 2:46pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has been on a positive run for quite a while. However, on the weekly time frame, the bullish momentum is declining. The last two weeks saw price action printing two rejection bearish candlesticks at a multi-year horizontal resistance zone. As last week’s candlestick is a strong bearish candlestick, in the early part of this week, we may see bears retest the low of the bullish candlestick printed three weeks ago – which is in confluence with the monthly pivot, 1491.91.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action shot above a lower rising channel (with blue lower boundary) to operate in a higher rising channel (with red upper boundary), indicating an increase in bullish momentum. However, presently, the momentum has turned southwards in the upper channel with the printing of two bearish candlesticks on Thursday and Friday, and the technicals favour further southward move. We may see a penetration of the lower channel in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, recent price action has tested the lower boundary (magenta) of the rising channel within which it has been operating since mid-August. Three of the candlesticks printed in the area have been relatively big and penetrated the channel support trendline. A breakdown of the channel support is likely to lead to a retest of the 1490 area; from which price operation rallied on August 23. Any further southward momentum is likely to expose the 1472 horizontal support area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDH4_September 8, 2019.png Size: 48 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #748
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:29pm Sep 8, 2019 3:29pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPCAD price action on the weekly time frame retested the 1.62580/1.64500 consolidation zone which it broke down six weeks ago. Last week, a long-tailed doji-like candlestick was printed at the zone but the technicals still favour bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADWeekly_September 8, 2019.png Size: 54 KB


The daily time frame shows price action located in a congestion area. There is sideways of operation in the zone but any bullish move will have to contend with the horizontal resistance around the 1.64040 area (blue). As the impulsive direction favours bears and the market structure is still intact, a northward move is an opportunity for shorting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the H4 time frame has retested a broken-down rising channel (magenta). Some topping candlesticks have formed at the lower boundary of the channel, indicating a zone rejection. Should there be any further bullish move this week, the 1.63315/1.64040 zone (bound by blue horizontal lines) is likely to be a hindrance. I expect a bearish turnaround after any northward retracement. I am bearish GBPCAD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADH4_September 8, 2019.png Size: 71 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #749
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:37pm Sep 8, 2019 3:37pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is generally disposed negative but on the weekly time frame recent momentum has taken price action northwards for a retest of a breached congestion zone around 1.24500. Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick that breached the top of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. Although the candlestick printed last week has an upper wick, the longer lower wick indicates that bulls have an edge in the market. As the candlestick failed to pierce the 1.24500 resistance, we may expect bulls to make another attempt at the zone in the early part of this week. Technically, such a move is likely to be corrective. A southward turnaround is favoured.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_September 8, 2019.png Size: 52 KB


A morning star formation is on the daily time frame. There was a bullish follow-through on Wednesday and Thursday last week, but it was limited by the bearish print on Friday. Technically, the momentum is still with the bulls and we may see further northward move in the early part of this week. However, the market structure is still intact, and we may see a southward turnaround soon, much likely at the 1.23790/1.25300 resistance zone (bound by blue horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_September 8, 2019.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #750
  • Sep 8, 2019 3:51pm Sep 8, 2019 3:51pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been grinding negatively for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is within a falling wedge (blue) but with hindered southward momentum. Basically, there has been a lot of sideways operation within the wedge. Two weeks ago, the market printed a relatively big bearish candlestick that touched the wedge support trendline. However, last week, a bullish candlestick with wicks on both ends took price action a bit beyond the support trendline. This is a feeble attempt but the technical patterns within the wedge indicate that we may still have bulls take price action northwards; which, of course, will be a corrective move. In the coming days, we may see bears influence price action to retest the 1.08390 /1.07790 zone from which the market rallied in mid-April 2017.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_September 8, 2019.png Size: 52 KB


On the daily time frame, last week, a morning star was formed at the wedge support of the falling wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. However, there was limited bullish follow-through as indecision candlesticks were printed by price action on Thursday and Friday. It is better to wait for market clarity in the next few days. As the bigger picture is still in favour of a downtrend, any sell trade is better done upon a pullback to a value area; for example, to around the wedge resistance trendline or the 1.11500/1.11700 horizontal resistance area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_September 8, 2019.png Size: 60 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #751
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:50am Sep 10, 2019 8:50am
Always interesting reading and understandable...I just need to control my weakness's..Haa
  • #752
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:05pm Sep 15, 2019 3:05pm
I hope you do.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting TC48
..I just need to control my weakness's..
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #753
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:09pm Sep 15, 2019 3:09pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has come under negative pressure recently. The strong bullish momentum it witnessed for quite a long while is on the decline. On the weekly time frame, bearish candlesticks were printed by price action in the past three weeks after the market peaked to a multi-year resistance zone. A rising channel (blue) is still in operation and bears may see the channel support trendline or the 1472 horizonal support zone as the target objective. A significant breakdown of the channel may lead to further bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDWeekly_September 15, 2019.png Size: 50 KB


On the daily time frame, last Thursday, price action printed a doji-like candlestick with a long upper wick, which indicated a strong bearish pressure. However, the bearish candlestick printed on Friday did not offer much confidence of a bearish follow-through. We may have to wait for the early part of this week to see how bears respond.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Technicals on the H4 time frame give a slight edge to bears and we may see them attempt a follow-through of the bearish disposition of last week Thursday and Friday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDH4_September 15, 2019.png Size: 54 KB


I am bearish XAUUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #754
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:25pm Sep 15, 2019 3:25pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market has been disposed negatively for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is consolidating within a falling channel (blue). Presently, price momentum is northwards as bulls attempt to take price action towards the channel resistance trendline, while the 0.70020 zone is the immediate horizontal resistance. We should also be aware of the falling trendline (red) traceable to the high of July 2014; which may be influential as resistance in the longer term.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly_September 15, 2019.png Size: 62 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is disposed positively within the falling channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame but with decline in momentum as it traversed through the 0.68250/0.68960 horizontal resistance area, where it is presently located. Based on recent price action patterns within the falling channel, we may expect a further northward move, perhaps to the 0.69090/0.69450 area (bound by magenta horizontal lines) before any southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily_September 15, 2019.png Size: 56 KB


As the bigger picture is a falling channel, I am bearish AUDUSD. But I will await a feasible bearish setup at an area of value, say the 0.69090/0.69450 area or the 0.70020 horizontal resistance area.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #755
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:34pm Sep 15, 2019 3:34pm
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

In August 2019, a shooting star candlestick was formed on the EURGBP monthly time frame, rejecting a multi-year resistance zone. But, basically, on the weekly time frame, we can see the market operating within a wide range, 0.84650/0.93090 (bound by magenta horizontal lines), spanning roughly 830 pips. Presently, price action has rejected the upper boundary of the range with a series of bearish continuation candlesticks. We are likely to see a continuation of the bearish mode, particularly should price action break down the 0.88770 support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly_September 15, 2019.png Size: 52 KB


On the daily time frame, the market is presently operating in a falling channel (black) after breaking out of a rising channel (blue). Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick was printed within the falling channel. Characteristically, we may not see another big bearish move until a sideways of price action, particularly as price action is presently located at a significant horizontal support area, the 0.88770 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily_September 15, 2019.png Size: 63 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #756
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:43pm Sep 15, 2019 3:43pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has disposed negative but with sideways mode for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a falling wedge (blue). Presently, bulls are taking market operation towards the wedge resistance trendline. Price action is now located at a horizontal resistance, which bulls must overcome to gain impetus for further northward move. Technically, such a move should be an opportunity to secure a bearish setup to align with the major market disposition.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_September 15, 2019.png Size: 54 KB


On the daily time frame, a bottoming candlestick pattern has been printed by recent price action at the support trendline of the falling wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. This suggests bullish intent for further northward move. But the immediate horizontal resistance is located at the 1.11370 area.; which is less than 40 pips from current location of price action. So, we should wait. Besides, we should be mindful that most of the recent candlesticks printed also have upper shadows – indicating bearish influence – and a minor falling trendline (black) could be a barrier to a bullish drive. At any rate, technicals support sell trades from a bearish setup upon a northward move of price action to an area of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_September 15, 2019.png Size: 61 KB


Presently, I am stepping aside from this market. I will not be trading it until there is an attractive sell trading setup on a daily closing basis with a feasible directional momentum.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #757
  • Edited 4:46am Sep 18, 2019 4:17am | Edited 4:46am
If you are tracking the XAUUSD market, note that price action is making strong attempts to break down the 1480 horizontal support; a breakdown of which will expose the market to a southward drive.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The XAUUSD market has come under negative pressure recently. The strong bullish momentum it witnessed for quite a long while is on the decline. On the weekly time frame, bearish candlesticks were printed by price action in the past three weeks after the market peaked to a multi-year resistance zone. A rising channel (blue) is still in operation and bears may see the channel support trendline or the 1472 horizonal support zone as the target objective. A significant breakdown of the channel may lead to further bearish...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #758
  • Sep 22, 2019 3:02pm Sep 22, 2019 3:02pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPAUD price action is still operating in a rising channel (blue) on the weekly time frame. Presently, it is located around the channel resistance trendline, which is in confluence with the 1.85180 horizontal resistance. We may see some sideways of price action or a southward retracement in this area. The next major horizontal resistance is at the 1.87450 area; an area which is the upper boundary of a wide-range horizontal channel (bound by magenta horizontal lines) with the lower boundary around the 1.74220 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDWeekly_September 22, 2019.png Size: 59 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (magenta) but the bullish momentum is waning. The most recent candlestick prints show a balance of influence between bulls and bears as price action approaches the resistance trendline of the rising channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. This situation may lead to a limited northward move or some sideways of price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH4_September 22, 2019.png Size: 71 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #759
  • Sep 22, 2019 3:12pm Sep 22, 2019 3:12pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is still disposed positively but bears are becoming increasingly influential. On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, bears rejected the 1558 multi-year resistance zone. There was a bearish follow-up in the subsequent two weeks. But last week, bulls pushed price action northwards leading to the printing of a bullish pinbar. Technically, we should expect a bullish follow-through in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDWeekly_September 22, 2019.png Size: 54 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is disposed positively and a rising trendline (red) is in play as support. Last week Friday, the market printed a bullish candlestick which lifted price operation above a minor congestion area. Although we may see a bullish continuation in the early part of this week, there are a few barriers that may hinder any bullish momentum. A breakdown of the rising trendline (red) on a daily closing basis may give impetus to a southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_September 22, 2019.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #760
  • Sep 22, 2019 3:23pm Sep 22, 2019 3:23pm
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

In the past six weeks, EURGBP price action has disposed southwards. However, recently, on the weekly time frame, the southward momentum has been waning.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly_September 22, 2019.png Size: 58 KB


Technicals on the daily time frame favour bears. But, as price action entered the 0.88150 minor support area, bulls pushed back to influence a northward retracement. Nevertheless, such a move is likely to be temporary in nature. The immediate major horizontal support is at the 0.87630 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A falling trendline (red) is in play on the H4 time frame. This may be influential as resistance in the foreseeable future. Presently, price action is disposed northwards but may meet resistance at a value area, such as 0.88920 or 0.89650, for a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH4_September 22, 2019.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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