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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #701
  • Jul 21, 2019 3:20pm Jul 21, 2019 3:20pm
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPJPY market has been sideways for the most part of the last eight weeks. The last two weeks have seen much ambivalence of price action after a narrow-range horizontal channel was breached southwards. The technicals on the weekly time frame favour bears but the 132.430 area is a horizontal support which bears may struggle to break down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the H4 time frame is disposing northwards in retracement as the impulsive direction is southwards. The 135.530/135.950 zone is an area of value which may be a target of such a retracement before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_July_21,_2019_H4.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #702
  • Jul 21, 2019 3:32pm Jul 21, 2019 3:32pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is still in a consolidation mode on the weekly time frame, spanning the 1.11260/1.14220 zone. But the longer-term technical disposition still favours bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a narrower horizontal channel 1.12860/1.11940 (bound by magenta horizontal lines). This is very much an area to avoid trading in until either a breakout or a breakdown of the channel. A breakdown of the channel is not likely to offer a feasible trade until the 1.11260 horizontal support is breached. Personally, based on the bigger picture favouring bears, I will consider a sell trading opportunity after a breakout above the channel to a value area around the 1.13410/1.13890 zone (bound by blue horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_July_21,_2019_D1.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #703
  • Jul 21, 2019 3:44pm Jul 21, 2019 3:44pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD price action on the weekly time frame is presently ambivalent, having printed two pinbars at the 1.25300 horizontal support in the past two weeks without any directional follow-through. The 1.23860/1.25930 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is likely to act as a horizontal channel for price action consolidation in the early part of this week before any directional momentum. Although the technicals still favour bears, the market is fickle, and we may see a retest of the monthly pivot around 1.26620 before any southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_July_21,_2019_W1.png Size: 46 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is operating in a falling channel (black). Presently, it has rejected the channel support trendline and moving towards the channel resistance trendline. The candlestick prints on Wednesday through Friday last week indicate the intent of bulls to take price further northwards, perhaps to a previous area of value, say the channel resistance trendline or the next horizontal resistance around the 1.26410/1.27180 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines), which contains the monthly pivot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_July_21,_2019_D1.png Size: 49 KB


Recent price action on the H4 time frame has formed a mini horizontal channel (blue) within which ‘wicky’ indecision candlesticks were printed during the last three 4-hour sessions on Friday. We should notice the big bullish candlestick to the left side which seemed to be influencing the price action that followed its print since Thursday. We may see an attempt to take out its high as bulls pursue a northward move, based on the pattern seen on the daily time frame. Furthermore, the 1.26410/1.27180 zone is the inception zone of the most recent bearish impulsive move within the falling channel (black) and may be a magnet of a northward retracement before any further southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_July_21,_2019_H4.png Size: 52 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #704
  • Jul 21, 2019 3:51pm Jul 21, 2019 3:51pm
I am bearish GBPUSD but will wait for price action to provide me a feasible setup within an area of value; such an area is the 1.26410/1.27180 zone or a deep (61.8/78.6 Fib) retracement to it.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The GBPUSD price action on the weekly time frame is presently ambivalent, having printed two pinbars at the 1.25300 horizontal support in the past two weeks without any directional follow-through. The 1.23860/1.25930 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is likely to act as a horizontal channel for price action consolidation in the early part of this week before any directional momentum. Although the technicals still favour bears, the market is fickle, and we may see a retest of the monthly pivot around 1.26620...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #705
  • Edited 3:15pm Jul 28, 2019 2:59pm | Edited 3:15pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD market is consolidating within a rising wedge (red) on the weekly time frame. Last week, price action printed a bullish outside candlestick near the channel support trendline. A follow-up this week will likely see bulls take price action to the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.80430 area.

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A falling channel (black) has been carved by price action on the daily time frame within the rising wedge (red) seen on the weekly time frame. Bulls have been in control of recent price action but, presently, located around a minor horizontal resistance where top-tailed candlesticks were printed on Thursday and Friday last week, indicating a bearish challenge to bulls’ influence. We may see some sideways of price action in the early part of this week or a brief northward push, but we may not see much bullish momentum. A southward turnaround seems to be more probable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Miniature or topping candlesticks have been printed on the H4 time frame near a minor horizontal resistance within the falling channel (black) seen on the daily time frame. This is indicative of an impending southward turnaround, perhaps, at the 1.80430 area or the channel resistance trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_July_28,_2019_H4.png Size: 47 KB


I am bearish GBPAUD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #706
  • Jul 28, 2019 3:19pm Jul 28, 2019 3:19pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPCAD price action on the weekly time frame is operating within a symmetrical triangle (blue) and presently located around the triangle support trendline. However, there has been sideways operation in the area in the past three weeks, with the printing of three indecision candlesticks. Much likely, we may see further market ambivalence this week or a brief bullish correction. Technicals are in favor of bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Technicals are in favour of bears on the daily time frame but price action is far from the mean. Therefore, we may see a retracement to, say, the 1.64690/1.65780 zone, which is an immediate horizontal resistance.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_July_28,_2019_D1.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #707
  • Jul 28, 2019 3:41pm Jul 28, 2019 3:41pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is yet to break out of its consolidation mode. On the weekly time frame, the order flow is grinding slowly on the negative side, but a directional momentum is lacking. Recent price action is confined within a falling expanding wedge (black). A major horizontal channel (bound by magenta horizontal lines) spans the 1.14095/1.11030 area which has constrained price action in the past four months. But much of recent price action has been confined to the lower segment of the range, the 1.13130/1.11030 area. The technicals favour bears and a breakdown of the channel may see them target the 1.09500 horizontal support area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The H4 time frame shows EURUSD price action operating in a bearish sloping channel (black) and the technicals in sync. Presently, price action is located at the channel support trendline with rejection candlestick tails printed; we may see a bullish pullback before a southward turn around. Candidates for a retracement target include the channel resistance trendline and the 1.12760/1.13065 horizontal resistance area (bound by dark orange horizontal lines), which adjoins the monthly pivot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am bearish EURUSD but I expect a northward retracement first before a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #708
  • Jul 28, 2019 3:53pm Jul 28, 2019 3:53pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Bears are influencing GBPUSD price action within a falling wedge (blue) on the weekly time frame, but the immediate horizontal support is just 30 pips below current location of price action. We may have a sideways of price action in the early part of this week or a brief retracement before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_July_28,_2019_W1.png Size: 55 KB


On the daily time frame, a small range descending channel (magenta) is in operation. Price action printed some bottom-tailed candlesticks that hit the channel support trendline several times but failed to break it. A relatively strong bearish candlestick was printed on Friday. Should bears follow through in the early part of this week, a breakdown of the channel may expose the 1.21340 horizontal support zone. Otherwise, we may see a retracement to around the channel resistance trendline before a southward turnaround. The 1.26190 horizontal resistance zone is another candidate for a retracement target. The technicals are in favour of bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_July_28,_2019_D1.png Size: 58 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #709
  • Edited Jul 29, 2019 1:39am Jul 28, 2019 7:57pm | Edited Jul 29, 2019 1:39am
Lots of news this coming week so I'd be very cautious.. Here is what I'll be targeting over the coming days/weeks aswell as my thinking. Ofcourse if they don't fit my criteria for entry as market conditions change, I'll overlook.. Let me know what you all think!


USDCAD - Bullish

W1: Strong close above 200MA
W1: Price bottom reversal pattern
D1: Price closed above 21MA
D1: Price broke resistance, expect pull back to new support before upward move
D1: MACD crossed over signal, histogram over 0 line signifying bullish movement
H4: Expect price to form reversal patterns in/near support

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPNZD - Bearish

W1: Piercing line pattern formed on previous weekly session
D1: Price responding to ascending trend line touching a minimum of four times
D1: Price pulling back to Fibonacci levels
D1: MACD crossing over signal and histogram crossing over 0 line
fyi: I am bullish long term although I expect the fall to around the support area this week

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPAUD - Bullish

W1: Bullish engulfing pattern on last session
D1: Rising price channel since May 2016
D1: MACD crossing over signal and histogram crossing over 0 line
D1: Price closed above 21MA

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EURCAD - Bullish

W1: 200MA acting as rising support - Price action repeating itself on two previous dips below 200MA
D1: Price consolidating at lower levels
D1: MACD crossing over signal and histogram crossing over 0 line
D1: Price to move toward resistance as previously shown

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #710
  • Jul 29, 2019 4:47am Jul 29, 2019 4:47am
That's the right approach we should all have. We should not be slaves of our analyses. If market conditions change, we should reassess our bias.

Trade safe mate.

KP

Quoting monit0r
Lots of news this coming week so I'd be very cautious.. Here is what I'll be targeting over the coming days/weeks aswell as my thinking. Ofcourse if they don't fit my criteria for entry as market conditions change, I'll overlook...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #711
  • Edited 5:13am Jul 29, 2019 4:58am | Edited 5:13am
I am happy that we can have two different analyses on GBPAUD. I am bearish GBPAUD on a medium term basis as shown in my earlier post above on Sunday (post #705), based on the preceding bearish impulsive trend on the weekly time frame. However, I am not taking any position unless the price action and market structure favour a feasible sell trading setup on the daily time frame.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting monit0r
Lots of news this coming week so I'd be very cautious.. Here is what I'll be targeting over the coming days/weeks aswell as my thinking. Ofcourse if they don't fit my criteria for entry as market conditions change..
GBPAUD - Bullish W1: Bullish engulfing pattern on last session D1: Rising price channel since May 2016 D1: MACD crossing over signal and histogram crossing over 0 line D1: Price closed above 21MA {image}...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #712
  • Aug 4, 2019 12:54pm Aug 4, 2019 12:54pm
Hi all,

Here is what I'll be looking at over the week.. Obviously market conditions may change or I could just be wrong



GBPAUD - Bearish

W1: Price tested ascending trend line (gold) and daily fib zone (purple) twice in consecutive weeks nut weakened at previous highs
W1: 200SMA as resistance as same area as weekly Fib zone
D1: Price approaching daily and monthly Fib zone as resistance, so expecting sell orders to trigger - Look for bearish candle patterns
H4: Price approaching 200MA where has been rejected previously - Look for bearish candle patterns nearby

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EURUSD - Bearish

W1: Trend is down
D1: Price descending pulling back at fib levels
D1 Price broke support area turning to resistance
D1: Price pulling back to resistance area which also a daily fib zone
H4: Bearish harami candle pattern inside resistance area

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDD1_WB05AUG.png Size: 396 KB



EURAUD - Bearish
M1: Price in monthly resistance area
W1: Price in weekly resistance area
D1: High wave candle (long upper/lower wicks) in resistance area - signifying indecision
D1: Price at top of Bollinger Band
H4: Bearish pin bar followed by doji each with lower highs

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AUDUSD - Bearish
W1: Trend is down
W1: Price broken below horizontal support
W1: Support is also Fib area for Weekly and Daily
D1: Price below
D1: Price undecided signified by doji.
D1: expecting pullback to new resistance and then sell off
H4: Moving averages in down trending order (20 < 50 < 200)
H4: Bullish pin bar candle followed by bullish engulfing - heading toward new resistance.. Look for bearish patterns in that area

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #713
  • Edited 3:47pm Aug 4, 2019 3:08pm | Edited 3:47pm
Good analysis. Well done mate. I think we may see a brief pullback on EURUSD and GBPAUD before a bearish continuation.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting monit0r
Hi all, Here is what I'll be looking at over the week.. Obviously market conditions may change or I could just be wrong GBPAUD - Bearish W1: Price tested ascending trend line (gold) and daily fib zone (purple) twice in consecutive weeks nut weakened at previous highs W1: 200SMA as resistance as same area as weekly Fib zone D1: Price approaching daily and monthly Fib zone as resistance, so expecting sell orders to trigger - Look for bearish candle patterns H4: Price approaching 200MA where has been rejected previously - Look for bearish candle...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #714
  • Aug 4, 2019 3:12pm Aug 4, 2019 3:12pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bullish drive witnessed by the XAUUSD market in June 2019 did not have significant follow-through in July when the 1430/50 multi-year resistance zone was penetrated. In July, market operation ranged in the zone and printed an ambivalent candlestick. At any rate, technically, we still have a bullish XAUUSD market. But how the market handles the zone and the monthly pivot, around 1415, should be watched.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Technicals on the weekly time frame suggest that the market is still disposed positively. However, price action is still ranging as the market tackles the multi-year horizontal resistance around the 1430/50 area. The ‘wicky’ candlesticks recently printed suggest a market lacking in long-term directional momentum. But the 1400/1450 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) presents a significantly tradeable zone for both bulls and bears in the short term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_August_4,_2019_W1.png Size: 42 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is within a rising wedge pattern (blue). A significantly bullish candlestick was printed last week Thursday but there was little follow-through on Friday. Nevertheless, the technicals still favour some bullish move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_August_4,_2019_D1.png Size: 41 KB


The order flow context on the H4 time frame gives a slight edge to bulls but bears are still influential. Presently, price action is located about 85 pips below the 1450 horizontal resistance. Given that price action is within a rising wedge (blue) seen on the daily time frame, the 1450 area and the wedge resistance trendline can be influential as barriers to bullish momentum. In this context, as a ‘wicky’ top printed in the area in the recent past led to a zone rejection, a significant bearish print in the area in the early part of this week may lead to a southward pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_August_4,_2019_H4.png Size: 48 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #715
  • Aug 4, 2019 3:16pm Aug 4, 2019 3:16pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD has been in consolidation in a rising wedge (blue) for quite a while. An indecision candlestick was printed in July 2019 around a horizontal support zone (the 1.78430 area) on the monthly time frame. How the market handles the 1.78430 area in the coming days should be watched.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_August_4,_2019_MN.png Size: 41 KB


On the weekly time frame, price action has been in a horizontal consolidation in the 1.78430 area in the last three weeks. The doji-like candlestick printed last week is indicative of a likelihood of further ambivalence in the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_August_4,_2019_W1.png Size: 43 KB


Price operation on the daily time frame is within a falling channel (magenta). Presently, bulls are influencing a move towards the channel resistance trendline, which may expose the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.81460 before a possible southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_August_4,_2019_D1.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #716
  • Aug 4, 2019 3:20pm Aug 4, 2019 3:20pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPCAD market has experienced a solid bearish drive for three months. In July 2019, the bearish candlestick print nestled at a significant horizontal support zone (the 1.59840 area) and we should watch how the area is handled by price action in the days ahead.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_August_4,_2019_MN.png Size: 38 KB


The bearish move on the weekly time frame has been largely parabolic. Besides, price action is presently located at a significant horizontal support. Technically, I expect a pullback to an area of value before any further bearish momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Rejection candlesticks were printed around the 1.59840 horizontal support area between Wednesday and Friday last week. We may see bulls take price action northwards in retracement. This is, contextually, a corrective measure. Bears are still technically favoured to influence the market thereafter.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_August_4,_2019_D1.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #717
  • Aug 4, 2019 3:25pm Aug 4, 2019 3:25pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a period of sideways/consolidation in the GBPUSD market, price action took a bearish dive in July 2019 and nestled at the 1.21600 horizontal support zone on the monthly time frame. We should watch how the market handles the 1.21600 area this week. Note that a falling trendline (red) from the high of July 2014 is likely to be influential in future as resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_August_4,_2019_MN.png Size: 40 KB


The weekly time frame shows a parabolic bearish move in recent weeks. Last week, the bearish drive pierced below the 1.21600 psychological area but recoiled. We may see an attempt by bears to at least test the 1.19920 handle in the early part of this week. But it looks that the market is technically due for a retracement before any further southward continuation. The 1.23600 zone, which incorporates the monthly pivot, may be a magnet for a northward pullback before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action is operating in a falling channel (blue) on the daily time frame. A bottoming pattern has formed around the 1.21600 horizontal resistance zone and it is reacting near the channel support trendline. This may translate to a bullish pullback in the days ahead; perhaps, targeting the channel resistance trendline before a southward turnaround. In the short-term we are likely to have a northward pullback, but in the medium term the market is technically bearish. Thus, any bullish move is likely to be short-lived.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_August_4,_2019_D1.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #718
  • Aug 4, 2019 3:34pm Aug 4, 2019 3:34pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In July 2019, the EURUSD market broke down a horizontal range (1.14560/1.11680) within which price action has operated for over five months. Pivot traders would note that price action in August 2019 opened below the monthly pivot and may be looking for bears to dominate the month.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the weekly time frame is operating in a falling channel (blue) and a long-tailed doji was printed last week at a significant horizontal support zone. This is indicative of market equilibrium and we may see some sideways or a brief pullback of price action in the early part of this week. The technicals give an edge to bears and we may see a bearish continuation later in the week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market printed a morning star formation on the daily time frame towards the end of last week. This was in a horizontal support zone and price action is presently located too far from the mean. Thus, we may see a pullback to an area of value in the early part of this week. The 1.11680 area, which adjoins the monthly pivot, is a likely target of such a pullback. Another candidate is the minor falling trendline (magenta) formed by recent swing highs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is heading northwards and we may see a retest of the broken-down horizontal support around the 1.11680 area, which may lead to a role flip. Should there be a role flip we are likely to have a bearish momentum for a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am bearish EURUSD but will await a retracement before looking for a feasible sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #719
  • Aug 11, 2019 2:59pm Aug 11, 2019 2:59pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is determinedly bullish and only a corrective bearish mode can be expected. The technicals on the weekly time frame still favor bulls but the market is experiencing a decline in bullish drive. So, we may see some corrective move southwards this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A topping formation is developing on the H4 time frame. This portends a bearish correction. But a minor rising trendline (blue) is still acting as support. The next significant horizontal support is located at the 1469 area, while the 1510 area is horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_August_11,_2019_H4.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #720
  • Aug 11, 2019 3:12pm Aug 11, 2019 3:12pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPCAD market has been on the negative side for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bearish pinbar at the 1.59000 horizontal support area last week. This portends a bearish continuation, which may expose the 1.57340 horizontal support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has recently left an area of consolidation, the 1.61340/1.59820 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) and we may expect a pullback as a retest before further bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is located too far from the value area and we may expect a pullback in the early part of this week. This is likely to be brief as the technicals are still in favour of bears to influence the market mode.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_August_11,_2019_H4.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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