Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

Well done mate. Good job.

Trade safe.

KP

EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURAUD market is consolidating but disposed northwards. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue) traceable to February 2017. Seven weeks ago, market operation printed a bullish pinbar at the 1.59200 horizontal support and nestled on the rising trendline. However, there has not been much bullish follow up since; much of the subsequent price action has been sideways. Nevertheless, the technicals still favour bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, the candlesticks printed on Thursday and Friday showed an ambivalent market. Although we may have a northward move in the early part of this week, there is little room for a northward drive of price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURCAD price action on the weekly time frame is disposed southwards within a falling channel (blue). Last week, it printed a bearish engulfing candlestick around the channel mid line and nestled near the 1.44670 multi-year horizontal support area. This area is about 70 pips above the channel support trendline and we may not have much southward movement until it is breached. Based on the order flow context, technically, a northward retracement is a much likely prospect before any southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Price action on the H4 time frame is disposed southwards after a double 61.8 Fib retracement of the downleg from 1.48577 on August 26, 2019 to the 1.44317 area.
This flipped a resistance trendline (magenta) traceable to August 26, 2019 to support. Presently, market operation is disposed southwards and about 45 pips from the 1.44670 multi-year horizontal support area. Looking left, this area is technically a demand zone and we may see a northward pullback in the area. At any rate, we should watch how the market reacts to the area in the early part of this week before making a directional commitment. I am not ready to sell the pair until a northward pullback to an area of value; say a retest of the 1.47070 area, which is the 61.8 Fib zone of the recent significant downleg.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market has generally disposed southwards for much of the last 12 months. On the weekly time frame, market operation is respecting a falling trendline (blue) traceable to March 2018 but largely in consolidation. Last week, an insignificant bearish candlestick was printed at the confluence of the trendine and the 0.68580 horizontal support. Should this result in a bearish continuation, we may see the 0.66600 handle exposed. Technically, any northward move at the current location is likely to be temporary in nature.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action made a double retracement to the 50 Fib zone of the downleg from 0.70758 to 0.66760. Presently, price action is disposed southwards from the 50 Fib zone but it printed an indecision candlestick last Friday. Technically, a double retracement to the same zone is likely to lead to exposure of the next Fib zone. We may expect price action to get to the 61.8 Fib zone, around 0.69390, before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Presently, price action is consolidating around a minor S/R zone on the H4 time frame. This indicates a balanced market operation, and we may have to await directional clarity in the early part of this week. Nevertheless, I am bearish AUDUSD in the medium-term. Thus, a northward move of price action to the 61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downleg on the daily time frame will pique my interest to look for a bearish setup.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market continues to grind slowly southwards but in a consolidating fashion. On the weekly time frame, market operation is within a falling channel (blue) but the order flow has been largely balanced. Last week, price action printed a bearish candlestick from the channel resistance trendline at a confluence of the 1.12100 horizontal resistance. But this nestled at the 1.10710 horizontal support. We may see a sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week; which may give way to a bearish follow-through later in the week, targeting the 1.09380 horizontal support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, recent price action is respecting a rising trendline (magenta). Towards the end of last week Friday, market operation pierced the trendine but bulls pulled it back, resulting in the printing of a small bullish candlestick at the trendline and in confluence with the 1.10710 horizontal support. We may see bulls make a further attempt to retain the trendline as support. However, its breakdown is likely to result in a southward drive to the immediate horizontal support around the 1.09380 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Here's my outlook for the week/s ahead.. This week seems to be very news heavy with US and CAD rates due, so would be a good idea to be careful. That said, I'm finding more reasons to be bullish on USD and JPY.


AUDUSD - Bearish
WK1: Price has closed at 23.6% fib level
WK1: Price formed bearish candle at resistance area
WK1: Price closed at/below 21 SMA
WK1: Price below moving averages in down trending order (20 < 50 < 200) which I see as technically bearish
D1: Price has rejected from previous strong resistance which is D1 50% Fib level
D1: Price closed below weekly 23.6% fib level
D1: Price closed just below 38.2% fib level
H4: Price between weekly 23.6 and daily 38.2 and weekly central pivot point - this may cause some consolidation before a break above or below
H4: Price trading below 21 SMA
H4: Price closed as doji at weekly central
H4: MACD below signal line in down trending fashion
H1: Price below moving averages in down trending order (21 < 55 < 144) which I see as technically bearish
H1: Price at resistance area




EURUSD - Bearish
WK1: Price has closed at 38.2% fib level
WK1: Price formed bearish candle at resistance area
WK1: Price closed at/below 21 SMA
WK1: Price below moving averages in down trending order (21 < 55 < 144) which I see as technically bearish
D1: Price has rejected from previous strong resistance which is 50% Fib level
D1: Price closed below weekly Central Pivot Point
D1: Price closed at D1 38.2% fib level
H4: Price closed at support with piercing line candlestick pattern
H4: 21 and 55 SMA converging for potential golden cross
H4: MACD below signal line in down trending fashion
H4: Expect up to weekly central pivot (38.3% fib level) before sell off
H1: Price below moving averages in down trending order (21 < 55 < 144) which I see as technically bearish




GBPUSD - Bearish
WK1: Price has closed at 38.2% fib level
WK1: 144 SMA served as dynamic resistance
WK1: Price formed bearish candle at resistance area
D1: Price has rejected at resistance from D1 76.4% and WK1 38.2% Fib level
D1: Price seems to be over extended since its very strong push up since UK parliamentary votes
H4: Price closed at weekly central pivot point with bullish engulfing pattern (expect potential rally to Month R3 before decline)
H4: 21 and 55 SMA converging for potential golden cross
H1: Price below moving averages in down trending order (21 < 55 < 144) which I see as technically bearish
H1: Bollinger Band beginning to contract, usually signifies expansion and increase in volatility is due




USDJPY - Bullish
WK1: Price trading above 21 SMA
WK1: Price has closed above 38.2% fib level
WK1: inverse head and shoulder pattern forming - lookout for break of neckline
D1: Price trading above 21/55/144 with 21/55 rising underneath price
D1: Price closed just above 50% fib level and has been consolidating just above with rounding bottom pattern
D1: 61.8% fib level serving as support - This area is also the weekly 50% fib
D1: 144 SMA serving as dynamic support
H4: Price above moving averages in up trending order (21 > 55 > 144) which I see as technically bullish
H4: Price consolidating above support
H4: Double bottom pattern formed at support area
H4: Bollinger Band beginning to contract, usually signifies expansion and increase in volatility is due

Good contribution. Good that you reminded readers about the need to be cautious of news.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting monit0r

Disliked

Here's my outlook for the week/s ahead.. This week seems to be very news heavy with US and CAD rates due, so would be a good idea to be careful....

Ignored

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is operating in the 1519/1552 multi-year resistance zone. The zone is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward move from 1805.95 in September 2012 to 1047.30 in November 2015. This zone has seen a series of sideways of market operations for quite a while.



A rectangular pattern has formed on the weekly time frame (magenta) and ‘wicky’ candesticks have been printed within it. The last four weeks have seen price action printing ‘wicky’ candlesticks around the support trendline and we may see a further northward push, perhaps to target the high of the bearish pinbar printed six weeks ago – which is around 1535.72. But there are a few minor barriers along the way.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a falling channel (blue). Although, presently, it is at the channel resistance trendline, the relatively big bullish candlestick printed last week Thursday may have a northward follow-through in the early part of this week. Besides, a rising trendline (black) is still in play as support. Thus, technically bulls are still favoured. However, a breakdown of the rising trendline (black) on a daily closing basis is likely to result in a bearish drive to expose the 1460.80 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, GBPCAD bears drove the market to the 1.58860 multi-year horizontal support zone in July 2019. Since then, bulls have seized the initiative to drive market operations northward to the upper boundary of the 1.66650/1.70850 horizontal channel. This represents a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downleg from May 2019 to July 2019.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, price action has been sideways within the 1.66650/1.70850 horizontal channel in the last three weeks; the upper boundary which represents a 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing is in confluence with a significant horizontal resistance. Technically, any bullish move is likely to be short-lived as the market is in a consolidation phase of a dominant downtrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The daily time frame shows price action at the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the most recent downward swing. Topping candlesticks have been printed in the area, indicating probable rejection of the zone. Much likely, bulls may find it difficult to drive price action further northwards and a southward turnaround is imminent. Technically, there is bearish pressure for a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market has generally disposed bearish for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, market operation is respecting a falling trendline (blue) traceable to March 2013. However, recent market operation has been in the 0.66640 horizontal support zone from where, in October 2019, it printed a bullish candlestick. The next horizontal resistance is around 0.70990.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, price action in the past thirteen weeks has printed mainly lower-shadow candlesticks, indicating a bullish rejection of the 0.66640 horizontal support zone. A bullish follow-through has seen price action printing mainly bullish candlesticks in three of the past four weeks. This is technically an indication of bulls’ intention to retest the breached 0.70050/ 0.70990 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a falling channel (magenta). Presently, it is located near the channel resistance trendline and in confluence with the 0.69130/ 0.69200 minor horizontal resistance where a relatively small bullish candlestick was printed last Friday. Note that an indecision candlestick was printed on Thursday in the same area after a bullish drive into the area on Wednesday. This indicates a slowing down of bullish momentum. If price action breaches this area northwards, we may see bulls target the horizontal resistance in the 0.70050/0.70990 zone. But a failure on the part of bulls will give bears the incentive for a southward turnaround from the zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been in consolidation for quite a while but the general disposition is southwards. On the monthly time frame, market operation is within a falling channel (red) but much of it in nine of the past twelve months has been within a horizontal channel spanning the 1.11400/1.14430 zone (bound by horizontal purple lines). In August 2019, bears took price action below the zone and was followed through bearishly in September. However, last month, bulls seized the initiative and effected a pull back for a re-entry of the 1.11400/1.14430 zone. A rising trendline (blue) traceable to September 2016 is acting as support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, five weeks ago, a bullish pinbar was printed at the rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame and in the 1.09030 horizontal support zone. This was followed through for a bullish continuation move until two weeks ago when bears effected a pullback. However, last week, bulls influenced a bullish move that took price action back to inside of a congestion zone – the 1.11400/1.14430 zone (bound by horizontal purple lines) – where much of market operation has taken place in the past twelve months. Technically, we may see further northward move within the zone but the longer term technical outlook is bearish. A sustainable bearish momentum is technically feasible upon a breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (black) and the technicals are in sync for a bullish influence. Technically, the short-term momentum is bullish and as long as the trendline holds on a daily closing basis, we can expect bulls to be favoured. Nevertheless, there are a few barriers northwards which bulls may have to clear. The 1.13470/1.13840 area is a significant horizontal resistance which may witness sideways or turnaround of price action. Generally, the medium-term outlook favours a southward turnaround, perhaps upon a northward retracement to the 1.13050/1.13470 horizontal resistance zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD is primarily disposed southwards. On the weekly time frame, market is operating within an expanding falling wedge (black). Presently, price action is operating near the wedge resistance trendline where a bearish candlestick was printed last week. This area is in confluence with the 0.68630/0.70520 horizontal resistance zone (bound by blue horizontal lines). Technically, the area is susceptible to a zone flip for a downward ride but as price action still has a lot of room to operate in the zone, we may have to await how the market handles the area in the early part of this week before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is presently respecting a rising trendline (magenta) and indecision candlesticks have been printed around the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent down leg. Recent technical patterns on the daily time frame point to the likelihood of a brief northward move to, say, the 61.8/78.6 Fib zone before a feasible southward turnaround; this area is bound by gold horizontal lines. Nevertheless, a significant breakdown of the rising trendline (magenta) on a daily closing basis will dispose the bears for a southward continuation. I am bearish AUDUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, recent price action has printed low-tail candlesticks around the rising trendline (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. The last session on Friday printed a bullish but miniature candlestick, indicating a lack of directional momentum. But technicals on the H4 time frame indicate the likelihood of a brief move northwards, which is not likely to be sustainable as there are a few technical barriers to be contended with by bulls. A southward turnaround is likely to materialize after a brief pullback or sideways of market operation.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market has been consolidating within the 104.000/111.080 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines) since January 2019. On the monthly time frame, market operation is generally within a falling channel (red) but the 104.000/111.080 zone has been attracting much of market interest since January 2019. In August 2019, the market printed a low-tailed bearish candlestick to reject the lower boundary (104.000) of the zone. There was a bullish follow-up in September before an indecision candlestick was printed in October. We may see a retest of the 111.080 upper boundary which was rejected bearishly in May 2019.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, the order flow context and the predominance of bullish candlesticks among recently printed ones favour bulls. We may expect a bullish continuation to target the 111.080 horizontal resistance before a bearish turnaround. Nevertheless, a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) will incentivize bears for a southward drive. It is important to remember that the bigger technical market operation is within a falling channel (red).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Technicals and the order flow on the daily time frame favour bulls. I am bullish USDJPY. Nevertheless, a significant breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis will negate the bullish bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market has been sideways for a while but slowly grinding southwards. On the monthly time frame, a falling channel (magenta) has been formed by market operation. Last month, the channel resistance trendline was breached northwards by bulls. However, the candlestick printed entered the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.30370 (blue) and we may have a reaction in the area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, a flag has been formed by recent price action just below the 1.30370 horizontal resistance after a northward breach four weeks ago of the falling channel (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, a bearish candlestick was formed within the flag. Looking left we can see that the candlestick nestled at a horizontal support around the 1.27700 area. The area is also in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the downleg from 1.31700 in the first week of May 2019. Such an area is technically susceptible to a southward turnaround but the flag formation calls for caution. We may see a brief northward move towards the 78.6 Fib zone, around 1.29120/1.30300, before a sustainable southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The largely miniature or insignificant candlesticks recently printed on the H4 time frame indicate a lack of directional momentum and we should await clarity in the market in the early part of this week. From the weekly time frame, it is apparent that generally price action is at a zone where we can expect a reaction for a southward disposition. But there is still room for at least a brief northward move before any sustainable bearish drive can materialize. So, I will await a northward pullback to an area of value before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market continues to grind slowly southwards even though it is experiencing sideways operations. On the weekly time frame, price action is presently below the 1.11438/1.12060 S/R zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). The area has flipped as resistance after a bearish continuation candlestick was printed last week. This may see bears target the 1.08700/1.07600 multi-year horizontal support zone from which market operation rallied in late April 2017.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action has broken down a rising trendline (black) traceable to September 30, 2019. Presently it is located at the 1.10320/1.10190 horizontal support zone where a bearish continuation candlestick was printed last week Friday. We may see a sideways of price action in the area before any further southward drive. A break below the 1.10320/1.10190 zone is likely to see bears target the 1.08880 handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Hi,

Here's what I will be planning for over the next week(s) coming up.. From my analysis, most commodity pairs seem to be strong against funding currencies confirmed by similar looking chart positions. I would be looking out for price action entries in direction of bias.

AUDUSD - Bullish
W1: Higher high being made after a triple bottom
W1: Long lower shadow on last week candle
D1: Price rejected by 61.8 fib level as support
D1: Piercing line candle formed
D1: Price also rejecting ascending support
D1: Price/Candle pattern formed outside lower Bollinger Band
H4: Price rallying after overshooting S3 (100%) pivot level, usually a sign of over extension
H4: Higher high made after bottom reversal candle
H4: MACD crossing over signal line




GBPCAD - Bearish
W1: Using March 2018 as swing high, price has retraced to 50% fib level
W1: Price has failed to breach the 50% level as resistance
D1: Potential triple top price action pattern forming
D1: Doji on final session following small ascending candles
D1: Bollinger Band contracted, usually signifies expansion and increase in volatility is due
H4: Looking on lower TF, price has been ascending with trouble signifying that sellers have been begun entering the market unlike the previous attempts
H4: Price has reached R3 (100%) pivot level, usually a sign of over extension
H4: MACD negative divergence - Look for lower low on Lower TF




USDCAD - Bearish
W1: Gravestone doji formed after rally
W1: Lower high made, which should predict a lower low
W1: Price retraced to 23.6 fib level with AUG 2017 as swing low
D1: Evening star candle stick pattern after rally
D1: Resistance area weekly R2 pivot point which is also the above mentioned weekly 23.6 fib level
D1: Price also rejected at the upper Bollinger Band
D1: Price respecting descending trend line
H4: Price making a lower high after double top price action pattern
H4: Lower high resisted by 21 SMA
H4: MACD crossed below signal

Thanks, mate, for your contribution. It is good that you adopt a top-down technical analysis for your pre-market preparation.

Trade safe and you will prosper.

KP

Quoting monit0r

Disliked

Hi, Here's what I will be planning for over the next week(s) coming up.. From my analysis, most commodity pairs seem to be strong against funding currencies confirmed by similar looking chart positions. I would be looking out for price action entries in direction of bias. AUDUSD - Bullish W1: Higher high being made after a triple bottom W1: Long lower shadow on last week candle D1: Price rejected by 61.8 fib level as support D1: Piercing line candle formed D1: Price also rejecting ascending support D1: Price/Candle pattern formed outside lower Bollinger...

Ignored

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD market operation is within a falling channel (red) on the weekly time frame. However, presently, the momentum is in favour of bulls who are taking market operation northwards within the channel. The horizontal resistance around 0.65450 may be a challenge to a bullish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, recent price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue) within the descending channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame. The technicals are in favour of a bullish continuation but there are e a few barriers which bulls have to contend with, e.g. the 0.65450 horizontal resistance and the 0.66080 horizontal resistance area (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURAUD market has been operating within the 1.59250 /1.64055 zone in somewhat a sideways fashion since May 2019. On the monthly time frame, the zone is within the 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the 2.05895 high in February 2009 to the 1.16040 low in August 2012. Based on the fact that the rising trendline (red) from more recent market operations has not been broken down in spite of recent bearish attempts, it is apparent that there is still room for further northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, three weeks ago a bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (red) seen on the monthly time frame was attempted and continued by another bearish candlestick two weeks ago. But last week, bulls seized the initiative and effected a northward move taking price action back to hit the trendline. Should bulls succeed in making a follow-through this week, we may see a further northward drive above the trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, recent price action is operating within a rising wedge (blue) but a falling trendline (magenta) is still in play as resistance. Presently, price action is operating below the trendline, with a relatively big bullish candlestick printed on Thursday advancing just a few pips below it. Friday saw price action printing a relatively small bearish candlestick in reaction. We should await how price action handles the trendline in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Recent price action on the H4 time frame is operating around the 61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downleg from the high of October 16, 2019 to the low of November 7, 2019. Price operation since November 14 has been influenced mainly by bears and we may see bears continue the initiative to target the rising trendline (gold) still in play as resistance. But its significant breakdown on a daily closing basis is likely to give impetus for a bearish continuation. However, any bullish initiative is likely to target the next horizontal resistance around 1,62925/1.63240 (magenta). The area is in confluence with the 78.6 Fib zone and technically more amenable to a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

My bias in the short-term is bullish. However, I will look for a sell trading opportunity should bulls take market operation to an area of value, say the 1,62925/1.63240 zone (magenta).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is generally disposed downwards although presently the momentum is bullish. A long-term falling trendline (red) traceable to October 2007 is in play as resistance although it is still far away to be relevant in the near term. But a shorter term falling trendline (blue) traceable to July 2014 is being respected by market operations.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Recent price action has formed a flag or falling channel on the weekly time frame. This is along the falling near-term trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. Technically we may see a further bullish move.



Technicals on the daily time frame favour bulls. However, the next horizontal resistance is around the 1.30010/1.31140 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP