Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since hitting a 61.8 Fib retracement of the dominant downleg on the monthly time frame in January 2018, EURUSD market operation has disposed southwards in the main. Presently, market operation is around the 23.6 Fib zone where a bullish candlestick printed last month nested. Looking left, that area also adjoins a horizontal S/R reaction zone – the 1.11400/1.08650 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, market operation has carved out a falling wedge pattern (red) and price action has been sideways for first three of the past five weeks just below the wedge resistance trendline. Two weeks ago, a bearish candlestick was printed for directional impact but last week bulls made a feeble attempt to counter only to print a miniature candlestick. In the main, bears seem to be more influential presently.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, recent price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue) and as long as the trendline holds on a daily closing basis, we can expect the bulls to maintain their influence. However, we should be wary of the horizontal resistance zone around 1.112230/1.12100 (magenta) which may hinder a bullish drive and from which we may have a southward turnaround. I hold a bearish bias on EURUSD; but I expect a brief northward move first.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward mode of the NZDUSD market has given way to a northward correction. On the weekly time frame, sideways operation has been the mood in the past five weeks. Last week, an indecision candlestick was printed on the weekly time frame. Any further northward correction may likely target the next horizontal resistance around 0.64900/0.65600. Nevertheless, that is likely to offer an opportunity to look for a sell trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Price action on the H4 time frame is within a rising wedge (blue). In view of the bigger technical picture, a feasible proposition is to look for a sell trade upon a northward drive to an area of value, say the 0.64900/0.65600 zone. A breakdown of the wedge is likely to give impetus for a southward continuation. I am bearish NZDUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is presently in a ranging mood. On the weekly time frame, price action is located at the lower boundary of a horizontal channel (1456.52/1516.11). The relatively big candlestick printed three weeks ago suggests a bearish influence in the market. A follow-through this week may see bears target the low of the relatively big bullish candlestick printed 16 weeks ago; which is around 1436.70.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Price action on the daily time frame is within a falling wedge (blue). Technicals are synced for a bearish mode but we may experience a retracement northward within the wedge based on the order flow patterns. This is more likely as price action is located at a horizontal support around 1456.52. Any significant breakdown of the wedge may embolden bears to drive price action southwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish pinbar printed by price action on the GBPCAD weekly time frame last week portends a bearish intent in the market. The pinbar was printed at a confluence of the 1.71000 horizontal resistance and the 61.8 Fib zone of the recent downward swing from the high of 1.77270 to the low of 1.58730.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (red) from recent lows. Presently, market operation is around the trendline which the bearish candlestick printed last Friday pierced. We may see some sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week but a breakdown of the trendline may embolden bears for a further southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

A pennant (blue) has formed on the GBPUSD weekly time frame. Its upper boundary is aligned with a falling trendline traceable to March 2019. The pennant is located within the 61.8 and 78.6 Fib zone of the most dominant downward swing from March 2019. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick from the upper boundary of the pattern and its bearish breakdown may expose the 1.25650 support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The daily time frame shows a bearish impulse while recent price action is within a corrective phase. Presently, price action is located at the 1.28190 horizontal support area, where we may have a sideways of price action before a bearish continuation. Technically, a breakdown of the pennant (blue) seen on the weekly time frame is in the offing and a bearish bias on the GBPUSD seems to be supported. I am bearish GBPUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward mode of the EURUSD has not been smooth owing to sideways of market operation. On the weekly time frame, price action printed a relatively small bearish candlestick last week as opposed to a relatively small bullish candlestick printed a week earlier. Technically the southward momentum has paused.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, the downleg from 1.11690 on November 4, 2019 to 1.09950 on November 13, 2019 saw a 61.8 Fib retracement last Thursday. There was a bearish follow-up on Friday when price action printed a relatively big bearish candlestick. We may expect a bearish continuation this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Recent price action on the H4 time frame printed bearish candlesticks during last Friday sessions and stalled around a rising trendline (magenta) from the low of October 1, 2019. A breakdown of the trendline may see bears muster confidence for a bearish drive. Failure of bears to breach the trendline may see bulls take price action for a retest of the 1.10500 horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After entering the horizontal resistance zone around 1517.90 (red) in August 2019, the XAUUSD market went into a consolidation phase. On the monthly time frame, a bearish candlestick printed in November broke the low of the bullish candlestick printed in October. However, the bullish candlestick printed in August 2019 is still acting as a controlling candlestick as none of the subsequent candlesticks printed has significantly broken above its high and they have only managed to inch to about 78.6 Fib retracement towards its low. The November 2019 bearish candlestick print is an outside candlestick to the bullish candlestick printed in October and serves as a threat to the bullish drive. The 1406.03 area (forest green) is a significant horizontal support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, the relatively big bearish candlestick printed five weeks ago has failed to have any bearish follow-through as the market has subsequently printed only indecision candlesticks resulting in a sideways operation at the significant 1460 horizontal support zone. However, an emerging rising trendline (blue) is still largely intact. A significant breakdown of the zone on a daily closing basis is likely to encourage bears to pursue a southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Price action is operating within a falling channel (black) on the daily time frame. Recent price action has retested a broken-down support around 1469, and last week Wednesday a bearish candlestick broke below the zone. But the miniature candlesticks printed on Thursday and Friday, perhaps owing to the illiquidity on those days as a result of the partial activity of the New York session, indicate that a bearish drive below the zone has not yet materialized. We should await how the market handles the zone in the early part of this week. Note that the rising trendline (blue) seen on the weekly time frame is still acting as support and presently in confluence with the zone. It breakdown will likely give impetus to a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD market operation is grinding southwards within a falling channel (blue) after a 50 Fib retracement of the major downleg from the high of July 2014 to the low of August 2015. On the monthly time frame, a double bottom pattern was formed when market operation retested the August 2015 low (0.61210) in October 2019. This led to a bullish pullback to the significant, multi-year horizontal resistance zone around 0.64900 (red); an area which market operation failed to breach in November. Should bulls attempt a breach of the zone northwards, there are a few horizontal barriers they will have to contend with. Therefore, I don’t see much bullish drive above the zone. Very much likely, there will be a zone flip for a bearish turnaround with an initial target of the horizontal support around 0.61210 (sandybrown) which may extend to the 0.60840 handle (forest green). Basically, the technicals on the monthly time frame favour a southward mode even though the mood, i.e. current momentum, is a bit – very much temporarily, on the side of bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, the 0.64900 horizontal resistance is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib retracement of the immediate, significant downleg. It should be watched for a likely southward turnaround. At any rate, a bearish setup in the 38.2/50 Fib zone (0.69400/0.65320) will likely yield a feasible sell trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, recent price action has carved a rising wedge (black) but it is struggling to break above it, having printed indecision candlesticks around the wedge resistance area in the last four days. This is an indication of a decline in bullish momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I am bearish NZDUSD. I will look for a sell trading opportunity at an area of value based on the monthly and weekly technical outlook; much likely within the 0.64900/0.65320 horizontal resistance zone.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Hi,

Here's what I will be planning for over the next week(s) coming up.. Lots of news on the table this week, so definately be cautious. I will be looking out for price action entries in direction of bias.


NZDUSD - Bearish
W1: Resisted by falling 21SMA
W1: Resisted by old support seen in end of SEPT
W1: Small body candle on last session potential no strength for further rally
D1: Rejected at strong resistance area confirmed 4 times prior
D1: Price also rejected at 100 daily fib level
D1: Price rejected at Monthly R1 pivot
D1: Candles getting smaller signifying lack of strength to the upside
H4: 21/55 SMAs converging, look out for death cross
H4: Candles showing a lot of wicks signifying fight for control between bulls and bears, look for bearish signals




EURUSD - Bearish
W1: Continuation of downtrend
W1: Price trading below Correct Order of Moving Averages (21 < 55 < 144)
W1: Price continuing down after previous retrace of 38.2 Fib level on WB 18/NOV
D1: Price at short term support, expecting brief rally before reversal to the downside
D1: MACD below signal as well as water line (0)
D1: expecting brief rally before sell off as per plan A and plan B
H4: Strong push to the upside from weekly S2 pivot as support
H4: Looking for reversal patterns at prior CPP or prior monthly CPP
H4: Tall candle has long wick at the top signifying bears sold , so expecting further bearish action once CPPs reached




EURJPY - Bearish
W1: Overall trend is down, however, been making higher highs since mid-August, failed to make higher high
W1: Price resisted by Weekly 23% fib level
D1: Doji candle on last day session
D1: Price failed to close above weekly R2 pivot
H4: multiple doji candles are weekly R2 level as resistance
H4: MACD negative divergence with histogram and price resistance

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward disposition of the AUDUSD market gave way to a sideways operation four months ago. A horizontal channel for market operation, approximately spanned by the 0.66697/0.69100 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines), is apparent on the monthly time frame. In November, a bearish candlestick was printed in the zone; but it failed to breach the low of the bullish candlestick printed in October. Meanwhile, the 0.66690 significant horizontal support is still very much in tact and may be a target of any bearish drive in the next few days.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Market operation on the weekly time frame is disposed southwards within a falling channel (red). Four weeks ago, price action broke below the 0.69130 horizontal resistance area and technicals support a bearish continuation. However, there is a decline in bearish momentum as the candlesticks printed in the last two weeks have been largely miniature in size.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Technicals on the daily time frame still favour bears but there is a decline in momentum. The bearish candlesticks printed recently are miniature, indicating that bears are getting less influential. We may see a brief pullback or sideways of price action in the early part of this week before any bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

As a swing trader, I look for potential market reaction zones. On the USDJPY monthly time frame, I can see the 109.930 area (red) as a significant horizontal resistance zone and the 106.510 area (forest green) as a significant horizontal support zone. Presently, market operation is at the 109.310 zone, which was rejected in October 2019 and where the November bullish print nested. Looking left, it is apparent that market operation is influenced by the significant downleg from the high of February 2016 to June 2016, which has seen a 78.6 Fib retracement in December 2016. A falling trendline (red) from the 78.6 Fib area is acting as resistance. Apparently, any bullish drive is likely to be short-lived.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, the market is operating in a triangle (red), which is apparently corrective of an impulsive down trend. Technically, we may have a brief move northwards, but a southward turnaround is imminent, particularly as price action is finding it difficult to breach the significant 109.930 horizontal resistance (red).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue) from recent lows. As long as the trendline holds, we may expect bulls to sustain a northward move but with limited momentum. However, a significant breakdown of the trendline on a daily closing basis is likely to facilitate a southward drive.



A mini trendline (magenta) from recent price action on the H4 time frame is in play as support and its breakdown with a relatively big bearish candlestick will give an early warning of a possible southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.30160/1.31960 zone (bound by red horizontal lines) on the GBPUSD monthly time frame represents a significant horizontal resistance zone. While the area was breached southwards in May 2019, market operation retested its lower boundary (1.30160) in October, representing a 61.8 Fib retracement of the preceding downleg from March 2019. However, the November 2019 market operation failed a follow-through.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, market operation has broken out of the resistance trendline of a falling channel (black), and a rising trendline (blue) is still in play. Although technicals on the weekly time frame favour bulls, presently market operation is still sideways around the significant 1.30160 horizontal resistance. As the market operation is close to a significant horizontal resistance zone, the 1.30160/1.31960 zone (bound by red horizontal lines), we may experience a slowdown in bullish momentum which may give way to a southward pullback. The 1.26100 area (forest green) is a significant horizontal support. Therefore, any pullback is likely to target the rising trendline (blue) or the 1.26100 horizontal support (forest green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Recent price action on the daily time frame is within a symmetrical triangle and, technically, we should expect a breakout from either side of the triangle. Much of the candlestick prints last week indicate an intention of bulls to go further northwards. But as market operation is presently located close to a significant horizontal resistance zone (1.30160/1.31960, bound by red horizontal lines), a bullish drive is likely to be hindered.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Technicals on the H4 time frame indicate that bulls still have room and influence to take price action further northwards; they may retest the 1.301160 horizontal resistance. But beyond that level, they are likely to face some barriers, given the significance of the 1.30160/1.31960 zone as resistance on the monthly and weekly time frames. We should await how price action handles the zone in the early part of this week. Personally, I am looking for a bearish setup within the 1.30160/1.31960 zone, as that will likely offer me a profitable R:R.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has continued its southward disposition on the monthly time frame, operating within a falling channel (blue). The 1.11440 zone (red) has held as horizontal resistance. The area was breached southwards in July 2019 but was retested by a bullish print in October. The bearish print in November indicates a flip of the zone for a bearish continuation, with an initial target being the 1.08850 horizontal support (forest green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, a rising trendline (black) traceable to November 2016 is in play as support and in confluence with the 1.09340 horizontal support. We should watch the 1.09340 horizontal support; it was the origin of a bullish rally in May 2017 and was only revisited by price action in September 2019. We may see a brief northward pullback or sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week. Very much likely, a significant breakdown of the area on a daily closing basis will give impetus to a southward drive. Looking left, this may lead to filling of the gap created between the 1.07320 and 1.08680 (bound by forest green horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The technicals on the daily time frame favour bears but a pullback seems to be in the offing. We may see bulls take price action to the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.10880 before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The most recent candlestick prints on the H4 time frame favour bulls. Looking left, the technical pattern indicates a possible northward move, perhaps to retest the 1.10870 area. Thereafter, we may see a bearish turnaround. I am bearish EURUSD but will await a northward pullback to an area of value before looking for a feasible sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Well done, mate.

Trade safe and you will prosper. Lol

KP

I will not provide a top-down technical analysis on the XAUUSD this week. The technical outlook provided last week is still valid in my humble opinion. The market is in a sideways mode but the bearish thrust five weeks ago was huge and it is awaiting a follow-through. A breakdown of the 1460 zone, where market operation is presently happening, is likely to provide a southward drive. This may expose the 1440 support zone.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD market is disposed northwards within a falling wedge (blue) on the weekly time frame. Presently, price action is located at the 61.8 Fib zone of the recent dominant downleg. The zone, 0.65685/0.66170, is also in confluence with the wedge resistance trendline; it is susceptible to a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Recent price action on the H4 time frame is within a rising channel (black) but the bullish momentum seems to be weakening as the market enters a significant resistance zone around 0.65685/0.66170. We may have a southward pullback of price action in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPCAD market is still disposed northwards. However, on the weekly time frame, market operation is just about 110 pips below the 1.74940/1.77410 horizontal resistance zone (bound by red horizontal lines) but the technicals still favour a further northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, a rising trendline (blue) is still in play, and the technicals and the order flow favour a bullish continuation. However, we may see a pullback or sideways of price action when market operation enters the 1.74940/1.77410 horizontal resistance zone (bound by red horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, price action has moved far above the rising trendline (blue) seen on the daily time frame to respect a rising channel (magenta); indicating an increase in bullish momentum. However, the choppiness of price action in the channel indicates a slowing down of bullish momentum. We may see a pullback of price action before any further bullish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is generally disposed southwards but recent weeks have seen a sideways of market operation. On the weekly time frame, the bearish engulfing candlestick printed five weeks ago has failed a follow-through as the momentum stalled for a ranging operation at the 1.10580 horizontal support zone. We should await how price action handles the zone in the early part of this week. Any breakdown of the zone is likely to give impetus to a southward drive, whereas a northward pullback may target the 1.11650 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action has broken out of a falling channel (red) and is presently operating within a falling wedge (blue). Last Friday, a bearish engulfing candlestick was printed at the wedge resistance trendline. We may see a bearish follow-through in the early part of this week. However, as presently price action is located at the 1.105480 horizontal support zone we may see a sideways of price action before a bearish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Bulls have taken NZDUSD market operation to above the resistance trendline of a falling wedge (blue) and now located within a horizontal resistance zone (0.65760/0.66210), bound by red horizontal lines. The area is also close to the 61.8 Fib zone of the recent downleg from the high of July 2019. It should be watched for potential bearish reaction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action printed a long upper-tailed doji candlestick below the wedge resistance trendline (blue) seen on the weekly time frame and within the 0.65760/0.66210 horizontal resistance zone (bound by red horizontal lines). We may have to await price action in the zone in the early part of this week for directional clarity. Much likely, we are going to have the resumption of a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, a bearish reaction has taken place below the 0.65760/0.66210 horizontal resistance zone (red) seen on both the weekly and daily time frames, taking price action back to inside of the falling wedge (blue). However, there is no break in structure as long as the 0.65210 horizontal support is still intact. We may have to wait for a significant break of the 0.65210 area, with a retest, on an at least an H4 closing basis, before we can have confidence in a southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP