Trade the Dow/Dax

Up up and away on US stocks. 27,000 broken on the Dow, so surely now free to fly?

Not for me. 27,500, perhaps a bit higher, is the level to watch now if the price gets there. It's the last resistance I've got, and it could be massive.

just saying.

My friend that does Time Series was saying 2019 was the year for very high asset prices, and expects things to fall at some stage this year.

But the thing is, if USD falls, then the Dow and Gold/Silver could go exponential. Law of averages according to Buffett is stay Long, lol.

a rate cut is coming, so it's difficult to to see anything other than an aggressive move to the upside off of that, but if that cut doesn't happen...!!

Dax Support atm looks to be the 30m 200ema which I have at 390, and resistance is the hourly 200ema @ 413, so one of these will break. For me, a continuation of this down move looks likely, though London could put in a fake upside move first. Potential support initially around the CP @ 377. Support lower down perhaps on the 50% fib @ 363, or the 61.8% @ 349.

Upside resistance looking initially like the R1 area @ 460.

Support on the CP was pretty much hit, so now we're into this resistance level, so we'll see if it holds. Looking like it may be a messy first half hour or so.

I said it would be messy. Support is the H1 100sma just below today's CP, and the resistance as posted above. Still looking like it's working towards dropping further down, but there is a lot of support, so it could yet push higher. Might have to wait to get imputes from New York. Dow looks like it could be putting in a top on the H4 chart.

My 30m Dax chart, showing this 50 pip range we're stuck in atm. Trades possible out of S&R, but risky, with no clear direction. See how the 200sma ( red dash line ) held very well on that dip down just before 9am UK time.

Short vid showing something I'm watching on the Dow H4 TF, for those who may be interested.

Ps- put it on full screen mode for best clarity.

pps - When I get a potential signal like the one shown in the vid, I always look to see what the higher tfs are doing, and higher than H4, so I would look x3 and 4, so the 12 and 16 hour, the Dow is in clear water with no resistance in sight, which casts doubt on my H4 pattern. The first real potential resistance I have for the Dow is around 27,500, which shows up on my weekly chart, so if 400 breaks clear to the upside, then that will be my next level to watch, give or take, for a potential reversal in this strong trend.

Well she's dropping, that pattern re - video above, rarely fails. It's found some support on the 30m 200ema for now, but we could see the price back to 27,000 if this downward momentum continues.

Dow selling into the close, and that could be significant!

Good morning,

This selling is quite strong, continuing through the Asian markets as it looked like it would last night. No real clear support for Dax atm, and it's looking like it's got its sights set on the daily 100sma at 12,116 and possibly lower. Right now it's sitting on my H6 200sma @ 200, so London may buy it back a bit off of that, we'll have to wait and see.

There is a wee bit of support ( S from now on, and R for resistance ) around 200 which is reacting as I type, but if it breaks, then I think 12,00 is a real possibility today for Dax.

Psychology of the market---unless a big injection of money comes in on the short side, no one is going to want to open a short down here, so if it's going to go lower, it needs to be bought back a bit first...we're seeing this now.

The Dow found S on its 200ema overnight, which is a pretty big S level which traders no doubt will have been watching, so could well be a buy back off of that today.

R for this move on Dax? Difficult to see, but the 250 area may give some. Atm it's stalling on my 2m 200ema @ 239.

10m 100sma @ 280, so right here, next potential R level.

Great call, Cat

Thanks, but just calling out the obvious R levels I know the money is watching, and with momentum down overall, it was unlikely to go too high, though you never know with Dax, and the Barnier tweet helped it on its way I think.

Now we'll see how much umph is in this down move, whether it's got the legs for new lows, or whether it'll stall again around today's S1( 225 ) The Daily tf certainly looks like Dax wants lower.

I've still got that same S around 200 if the price gets back there, though with selling momentum behind it now, it could easily break.

Dax long view for those who may be interested, from yours truly.

Thanks for the vid, Cat. Couldn't agree with you more, HTF perspective becomes even more important with short term trading, moves are amplified when you are aligned with HTF.

Looking for it to poke above 350 then, depending on how its behaving, getting short.

Cheers
Mike