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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #781
  • Mar 5, 2019 9:47am Mar 5, 2019 9:47am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} Breakeven again.
Yes, does not look convincing yet.
  • #782
  • Mar 6, 2019 5:44am Mar 6, 2019 5:44am
I'm a bit quiet on this thread now because I don't really have much to add on the situation at present. I had been waiting to see what would happen if the Dow reached the 26,200 area, it did, put in a negative weekly doji and the first negative weekly candle of the rally, and since then the price has fallen. Now I am just watching as either it will continue to fall back towards its weekly 200ema, so about 21,770 or so on the Dow, or it will move back up to challenge the all time highs up there on 27,000.

The jury is out.
  • #783
  • Mar 6, 2019 5:53am Mar 6, 2019 5:53am
Quoting cat
I'm a bit quiet on this thread now because I don't really have much to add on the situation at present. I had been waiting to see what would happen if the Dow reached the 26,200 area, it did, put in a negative weekly doji and the first negative weekly candle of the rally, and since then the price has fallen. Now I am just watching as either it will continue to fall back towards its weekly 200ema, so about 21,770 or so on the Dow, or it will move back up to challenge the all time highs up there on 27,000. The jury is out.
I think realistically we will definitely touch 25530, and more likely hit somewhere between 24670-25200.
I still favour the downside for now. But things can change, and quickly.
  • #784
  • Mar 6, 2019 8:40am Mar 6, 2019 8:40am
This could turn equity markets into bullish mode again:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ong-term-loans
  • #785
  • Edited 12:14pm Mar 6, 2019 11:33am | Edited 12:14pm
Entered a few longs on DOW, testing waters after compression on M1.

Added one at 25645 all SL's 20p lower.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #786
  • Mar 6, 2019 12:45pm Mar 6, 2019 12:45pm
I see this pa on the Dow as another long drawn out correction in a wave 4 after Monday's impulsive drop in a wave 3. The other long drawn out affair in a wave 2 was from the evening on Feb 27 and lasted through till early Monday this week before the drop. If all that is correct then price could get back up to around the 25925 area to form an ABC pattern before the next leg down in a wave 5. As always, just an opinion.
  • #787
  • Mar 6, 2019 1:43pm Mar 6, 2019 1:43pm
Quoting jakucha
Entered a few longs on DOW, testing waters after compression on M1. Added one at 25645 all SL's 20p lower.
Upper buys stopped at BE. Lower entry SL at BE.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #788
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:52am Mar 7, 2019 1:52am
Dow has taken out Monday's low, and now looks to be headed for the H4 200ema @ 424 on my charts, currently having just broken beneath the H3 200ema. Could lift off the London open, but surely this is going lower at some point today. though how low is anybody's guess.

Dax too looking to drop further, though again, could lift a bit first.
  • #789
  • Edited 2:38am Mar 7, 2019 2:21am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting cat
Dow has taken out Monday's low, and now looks to be headed for the H4 200ema @ 424 on my charts, currently having just broken beneath the H3 200ema. Could lift off the London open, but surely this is going lower at some point today. though how low is anybody's guess. Dax too looking to drop further, though again, could lift a bit first.
Whereas I see the typical signs of a bear trap setup for a recovery during today - down to Camarilla L4 (and significant channel edge) pre-open, then not a seller in sight. Just like 14 February.
  • #790
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:54am Mar 7, 2019 2:54am
Quoting medici
{quote} Whereas I see the typical signs of a bear trap setup for a recovery during today - down to Camarilla L4 (and significant channel edge) pre-open, then not a seller in sight. Just like 14 February.
Oh it can pull back, in fact it needs to, but to me indecis are on a downward march in the medium term.
  • #791
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:01am Mar 7, 2019 3:01am
Quoting cat
{quote} Oh it can pull back, in fact it needs to, but to me indecis are on a downward march in the medium term.
Agreed. This is a correction in a downtrend, whereas 14 February was a rally in an uptrend. And the sluggish grind upwards confirms that.
  • #792
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:14am Mar 7, 2019 3:14am
Quoting medici
{quote} Agreed. This is a correction in a downtrend, whereas 14 February was a rally in an uptrend. And the sluggish grind upwards confirms that.
The Dax for example rallied hard off of its H4 200sma on Feb 15, and yes, it was in the middle of an uptrend. Not now though. The 200sma is well to the south, I see today more like the 28th Feb, though then I still had one of my key mas below the 20sma on H6, but now they are all above. A kick up to today's CP is possible on Dax, but not much higher unless I'm wrong. Were the price to rally above that, then my absolute tops is R1 @ 11,624.
  • #793
  • Edited 3:38am Mar 7, 2019 3:21am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting cat
{quote} The Dax for example rallied hard off of its H4 200sma on Feb 15, and yes, it was in the middle of an uptrend. Not now though. The 200sma is well to the south, I see today more like the 28th Feb, though then I still had one of my key mas below the 20sma on H6, but now they are all above. A kick up to today's CP is possible on Dax, but not much higher unless I'm wrong. Were the price to rally above that, then my absolute tops is R1 @ 11,624.
Perhaps, but remember that today is ECB day. I'd expect a slow grind that accelerates during the day - on the expectation that druglord Draghi will deliver fresh drugs to the junkies. A case of "buy the rumour sell the fact."
  • #794
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:41am Mar 7, 2019 3:41am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 55 7 MARS 2019.png Size: 1.0 MB
  • #795
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:51am Mar 7, 2019 3:51am
Quoting medici
{quote} Perhaps, but remember that today is ECB day. I'd expect a slow grind that accelerates during the day - on the expectation that druglord Draghi will deliver fresh drugs to the junkies. A case of "buy the rumour sell the fact."
I hadn't forgotten, but it would take something truly spectacular to lift Dax back up to yesterday's high.
  • #796
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:02am Mar 7, 2019 4:02am
Quoting cat
{quote} I hadn't forgotten, but it would take something truly spectacular to lift Dax back up to yesterday's high.
I wasn't talking about DAX but about the real smackhead - the Dow - and there the grind is slow but persistent.
  • #797
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:29am Mar 7, 2019 4:29am
Quoting medici
{quote} I wasn't talking about DAX but about the real smackhead - the Dow - and there the grind is slow but persistent.
I would expect the Dow to continue down to its H4 200ema , so around 25,426 as that is the next potentially significant S level. If that holds, and I stress, if that holds, then a speculative guess would be a pullback towards its 100sma which is also the 61.8% from that level, so a maximum around 870 before it begins the next leg down.

One more thing to note - the Dow is on H1 diversion with MACD atm, though far from confirmed.
  • #798
  • Edited 4:51am Mar 7, 2019 4:32am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting cat
{quote} I would expect the Dow to continue down to its H4 200ema , so around 25,426 as that is the next potentially significant S level. If that holds, and I stress, if that holds, then a speculative guess would be a pullback towards its 100sma which is also the 61.8% from that level, so a maximum around 870 before it begins the next leg down.
Fair enough, but from where would the selling commence? Current levels? I'd say pullback first, then down to the 25425 area. But I may be wrong...
  • #799
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:54am Mar 7, 2019 4:54am
Quoting medici
{quote} Fair enough, but from where would the selling commence? Current levels?
That would be continue, commence would have to be higher. Atm there is no reason to take profit if short, though if I wanted to short, then it would not be here. That's the best answer I can come up with I'm afraid. Same with Dax.
  • #800
  • Mar 7, 2019 5:00am Mar 7, 2019 5:00am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I think realistically we will definitely touch 25530, and more likely hit somewhere between 24670-25200. I still favour the downside for now. But things can change, and quickly.
Getting closer to first target zone. If we get a Weekly close below 500ish, then it will continue next week.
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