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DislikedI'm a bit quiet on this thread now because I don't really have much to add on the situation at present. I had been waiting to see what would happen if the Dow reached the 26,200 area, it did, put in a negative weekly doji and the first negative weekly candle of the rally, and since then the price has fallen. Now I am just watching as either it will continue to fall back towards its weekly 200ema, so about 21,770 or so on the Dow, or it will move back up to challenge the all time highs up there on 27,000. The jury is out.Ignored
DislikedDow has taken out Monday's low, and now looks to be headed for the H4 200ema @ 424 on my charts, currently having just broken beneath the H3 200ema. Could lift off the London open, but surely this is going lower at some point today. though how low is anybody's guess. Dax too looking to drop further, though again, could lift a bit first.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Whereas I see the typical signs of a bear trap setup for a recovery during today - down to Camarilla L4 (and significant channel edge) pre-open, then not a seller in sight. Just like 14 February.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Oh it can pull back, in fact it needs to, but to me indecis are on a downward march in the medium term.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Agreed. This is a correction in a downtrend, whereas 14 February was a rally in an uptrend. And the sluggish grind upwards confirms that.Ignored
Disliked{quote} The Dax for example rallied hard off of its H4 200sma on Feb 15, and yes, it was in the middle of an uptrend. Not now though. The 200sma is well to the south, I see today more like the 28th Feb, though then I still had one of my key mas below the 20sma on H6, but now they are all above. A kick up to today's CP is possible on Dax, but not much higher unless I'm wrong. Were the price to rally above that, then my absolute tops is R1 @ 11,624.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Perhaps, but remember that today is ECB day. I'd expect a slow grind that accelerates during the day - on the expectation that druglord Draghi will deliver fresh drugs to the junkies. A case of "buy the rumour sell the fact."Ignored
Disliked{quote} I hadn't forgotten, but it would take something truly spectacular to lift Dax back up to yesterday's high.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I wasn't talking about DAX but about the real smackhead - the Dow - and there the grind is slow but persistent.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I would expect the Dow to continue down to its H4 200ema , so around 25,426 as that is the next potentially significant S level. If that holds, and I stress, if that holds, then a speculative guess would be a pullback towards its 100sma which is also the 61.8% from that level, so a maximum around 870 before it begins the next leg down.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Fair enough, but from where would the selling commence? Current levels?Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think realistically we will definitely touch 25530, and more likely hit somewhere between 24670-25200. I still favour the downside for now. But things can change, and quickly.Ignored