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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #79,641
  • Dec 29, 2018 11:17am Dec 29, 2018 11:17am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Interesting article here by Ray Dalio https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/da...cycle-economy/ With Powell and Trump in charge who knows Kuroda would not be a happy man if there is too much upward pressure on the Yen https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OI2JY dhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OP09M Hence...

Fader,

thank you for those links, especially the Ray Dalio article + video. Really helps to put long and short term cycles into perspective.
  • #79,642
  • Dec 29, 2018 11:41am Dec 29, 2018 11:41am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} Fader, thank you for those links, especially the Ray Dalio article + video. Really helps to put long and short term cycles into perspective.
Ra, your welcome.
I know that it is quite heavy going, so well done if you went through it
  • #79,643
  • Dec 29, 2018 12:58pm Dec 29, 2018 12:58pm
Doji,
I was in the stock market when it crashed in 2009. I waited things out and got my money out of there eventually. A friend of mine had been trading forex and got me into it. I saw how addictive it could be! But more importantly, I saw how some currency pairs inevitably were going to go. With money, time, patience, and good decisions, I felt I could get wealthy. I had the money, the time and the patience but the good decisions were tough to deal with when the market had such big swings. I over-invested and then when things drop 500 pips you get spooked.

My best results have come from long periods of time while a currency pair has been on the decline or on the rise. I have managed to get in and get out at good times, thus making good profits and limiting bad open trades all the while. That is where the patience comes in. When a trends were happening, I did a good job of riding them up or down by opening and closing trades. The ones I have now were poor impulse / bad decisions that I regret mainly.

Still in a good spot and still excited about my prospects!
  • #79,644
  • Dec 29, 2018 2:09pm Dec 29, 2018 2:09pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Ra, your welcome. I know that it is quite heavy going, so well done if you went through it

It is quite dense lol. I’m re reading parts, and it’s a good puzzle for me right now. Still trying to wrap my head around the concept of a strong economy equating to a fall in stock prices, but this lines taught me so much: all investment assets are priced as the present value of their future cash flows and interest rates are the discount rate used to calculate present values.
Thanks again!
  • #79,645
  • Edited 4:52pm Dec 29, 2018 2:37pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Interesting article here by Ray Dalio https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/da...cycle-economy/ With Powell and Trump in charge who knows Kuroda would not be a happy man if there is too much upward pressure on the Yen https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OI2JY https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OP09M Hence...

I havent traded for the past week, but I have spent plenty of time on FF (the FB for traders indeed). I have read articles and forums and stalked traders and their posts, mostly fundamental traders I confess I have an embarrassing lack of knowledge on. I'm left feeling more than a little bit sheepish regarding my trading now ( I cant presently think of a better word for sheepish maybe embarrassed) I think for me in the future before I place a trade on a pair I would like to
A) be more mindful of the greater sentiment and economic influences regarding the pair, and what impact news might have on it whilst I have trades open with it
B) still use my knowledge of TA and the time of day to make an appropriate entry, and to pay myself as appropriately as possible with the subsequent PA
C) money management, money management, money management.

I am fascinated by position holders and the FA traders, and see immense benefits of holding trades for longer, but I'm also going to cut myself slack and concede that that level of understanding of the market will take me oh another 5 years minimum??

I think it's a pity that there appears to be a level of animosity between TA and FA traders on the forum ( not in UJ forum, FF in general), like people arguing over the benefits of salt v pepper, and in day to day trading both techniques most definitely have limitations . It's all very fascinating. I'll probably continue to overshare my trading on the forum because I dont sideline well, and

I wish everyone a very happy safe and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
H
  • #79,646
  • Dec 29, 2018 6:35pm Dec 29, 2018 6:35pm
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} I havent traded for the past week, but I have spent plenty of time on FF (the FB for traders indeed). I have read articles and forums and stalked traders and their posts, mostly fundamental traders I confess I have an embarrassing lack of knowled ge on. I'm left feeling more than a little bit sheepish regarding my trading now ( I cant presently think of a better word for sheepish maybe embarrassed) I think for me in the future before I place a trade on a pair I would like to A) be more mindful of the greater sentiment and economic influences...
Well said,

the more I read and study, predominantly from interviews with traders, I see it’s not about TA or FA, but what system works for you. To focus strictly on one side without even understanding the other will just create an imbalanced trader with gaps in your knowledge. That’s okay, you can still make it work for you and be successful, but anyone who says “this is better than that” is speaking solely from their experience, and to speak in absolutes is just trolling or looking to argue.

What I’d like to see from this forum is more sharing on ideas, articles and opinions moreso arguments on what’s right and what’s wrong, because it’s completely subjective.

Cheers!

PS: Anyone read Market Wizards by Schwager? Great read.
  • #79,647
  • Dec 29, 2018 7:17pm Dec 29, 2018 7:17pm
Some people can't talk about certain things because they have signed NDAs
For others their employers would not be too happy with them talking about how they trade on a public forum
Also FF can take up a lot of time.
  • #79,648
  • Dec 30, 2018 5:02pm Dec 30, 2018 5:02pm
Quoting Replicant
After the double breakdown, 110.5x looks very reachable and should provide some PT. But I'm not sure if it's the final target targeted by the bears for this swing. Might be the lows of 109 handle. Let's see. {image}
110.5 hit & Profit taking

After retesting the last break down @ 111.4, price made a new LL
=>Under this angle, all look set for a test of 109.4x/109.2x. I think it should be the final target of the ST swing.

MT is already pointing to 106.xx but we might chop for a while in current ST range as dollar weakness will be balanced by risk off fading away in first Q of 2019 imo.
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  • #79,649
  • Dec 30, 2018 6:06pm Dec 30, 2018 6:06pm
I was actually surprised to find the markets open today, New Year's Eve, most banks being on holiday.

Wouldn't mind closing the year with pips banked when the trading day ends.

May 2019 be a prosperous, joyous one for us all!
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #79,650
  • Edited 3:58am Dec 31, 2018 3:46am | Edited 3:58am
To wake, the bulls are starting! Be ready, you must!

But be aware, market plays tricks it does, yes?

Money creates it, makes it grow. Its energy surrounds us and binds us. Electronic beings we are, not this crude matter. You must feel the market, around you, here, between you, me, the chart, the broker, everywhere, yes?
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,651
  • Dec 31, 2018 5:48am Dec 31, 2018 5:48am
Quoting COGSx86
To wake, the bulls are starting! Be ready, you must! But be aware, market plays tricks it does, yes? Money creates it, makes it grow. Its energy surrounds us and binds us. Electronic beings we are, not this crude matter. You must feel the market, around you, here, between you, me, the chart, the broker, everywhere, yes? {image}
Well I hope it's a trick , it wasnt supposed to crack 110 until I was ready !
  • #79,652
  • Dec 31, 2018 6:38am Dec 31, 2018 6:38am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 110.5 hit & Profit taking After retesting the last break down @ 111.4, price made a new LL =>Under this angle, all look set for a test of....{image}
was watching it for 4 hours on Sunday, did exactly this..
  • #79,653
  • Dec 31, 2018 8:07am Dec 31, 2018 8:07am
Lisa Simpson for President?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...resident-trump
  • #79,654
  • Dec 31, 2018 2:38pm Dec 31, 2018 2:38pm
Quoting COGSx86
To wake, the bulls are starting! Be ready, you must! But be aware, market plays tricks it does, yes? Money creates it, makes it grow. Its energy surrounds us and binds us. Electronic beings we are, not this crude matter. You must feel the market, around you, here, between you, me, the chart, the broker, everywhere, yes? {image}
That was a really nice prediction
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #79,655
  • Jan 1, 2019 7:07pm Jan 1, 2019 7:07pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 110.5 hit & Profit taking After retesting the last break down @ 111.4, price made a new LL =>Under this angle, all look set for a test of 109.4x/109.2x. I thinkit should be the final target of the ST swing. MT is already pointing to 106.xx but we might chop for a while in current ST range as dollar weakness will be balanced by risk off fading away in first Q of 2019 imo. {image}
All cleared @ 109.5x on Asian Open. Last part of the swing was really telegraphed I think.

Sideline now. It's pointing to 106.6x but it looks more a MT target than a ST target to me. I think we just need Equities to give a hand to build a bottom at these levels.
  • #79,656
  • Jan 1, 2019 7:16pm Jan 1, 2019 7:16pm
Hey, look--

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/arti...es-for-q1-2019

Long story short: For the first quarter of the year, the guys at Nordea Bank recommend selling USD vs a basket of currencies including JPY.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #79,657
  • Edited 7:45pm Jan 1, 2019 7:33pm | Edited 7:45pm
I really want to short UJ, but I saw the HL on 5min with more vol on the bull candle and I thought i'd risk it, which is possibly breaking NY resolutions first trade. I don't think "let's risk it" is meant to be part of a traders trading plan. Anyway I'm in, and moving SL to BE so I can go have a post lunch nanna nap. Had a nice surf with my stand up paddle board this am, lovely and sunny.. a good day. Cheers. Let's all meet back for a big sell from 110 in a few hours ( or tomorrow.. bank holidays and all)

NB stopped out. Not surprised. Thought it might pop up to 109.720 first
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  • #79,658
  • Jan 2, 2019 1:42am Jan 2, 2019 1:42am
Quoting okshop
{quote} USDJPY {image}
UJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #79,659
  • Jan 2, 2019 2:33am Jan 2, 2019 2:33am
It is so amazing how all the JPY pairs are just going straight down with no sign of retracement at all.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #79,660
  • Jan 2, 2019 3:03am Jan 2, 2019 3:03am
Quoting aeternum
It is so amazing how all the JPY pairs are just going straight down with no sign of retracement at all.
i think is just the begining
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