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Win in Trend and Win in Range

  • #121
  • May 13, 2018 4:11pm May 13, 2018 4:11pm
i have keen interest in this thread, i think one way to look at price action better is via Renko charts, it takes away the noise that comes with regular candle bars and time doesnt matter with Renko....only one thing does and thats PRICE. i believe if we can truly aim to get something that works regardless of a trend or range, Renko charts would be one way to go.......lets discuss
  • #122
  • May 13, 2018 4:18pm May 13, 2018 4:18pm
Market is trending when price doesn't retrace "enough".
No guts, no glory
  • #123
  • May 13, 2018 4:38pm May 13, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You just proved there are no shortage of idiots on this world The trading industry needs guys like you to exist so good job. You just proved my theory. Return to what? This thread is already dead you idiot. I am trying to revive it. Here's my simple challenge to the trading community. Pick any strategy for entries I don't care what type of entries. For exists, exit only when you profit is (order profit()+(order commission()+orderswap)*tradingcostmultiple) Run your "strategy" with tradingcostmultiple of 2+. If your strategy is consistantly...
most difficult part is choosing a direction.
Inserted Code
double OrderRunningStatus()
{
   double ProfitLoss = 0, Commission = 0, Swap = 0;
   for(int order = 0; order <= OrdersTotal() - 1; order++)
   {
      bool select = OrderSelect(order,SELECT_BY_POS);
      if(select && OrderType()<2)
      {
         ProfitLoss+=OrderProfit();
         Commission+=OrderCommission();
         Swap+=OrderSwap();
      }
   }
   return NormDollar(ProfitLoss+Commission+Swap);
}

Quoting VEEFX
Edit: in my research, there are approx 450K variables that affect the market at first tick of minute candle at open (over 85 million in a month across 24x5 weekly FX cycle across 28 pairs, 8 economies and 24/6 time sliced sessions) Edit1: Here's the kick in the gut. Every one of these price affecting conditions come with a 50/50 probability so how are you going to find fat tail distribution in a market that is affecting every tick on every pair?
so...in your research, where is the reference point?
  • #124
  • May 13, 2018 4:53pm May 13, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} It's Closing price of previous candle. Glad you asked reference point and not level as there is a huge difference.
well.. i thought you want to explain more on that triangle reference. (level,reference,entry)
  • #125
  • May 13, 2018 5:29pm May 13, 2018 5:29pm
Quoting VEEFX
RECENCY matters. Price does not matter. History does not matter. Time DEFINITELY matters.
something like this?

ps: Sorry OP for hijacking your thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 161 KB
  • #126
  • May 14, 2018 6:36am May 14, 2018 6:36am
Interesting thread, "win in trend and win in range" is something most trading systems fail to achieve. Well, here are a few thoughts:

1) Carddard asked a good question at the beginning: "What if we don't have to predict the next wave - what we just need to know we are in the next wave? Would that be sufficient knowledge for us to manage our trades?" My answer would be: yes, that would be sufficient. And it would better be sufficient. Because it may be all we have to work with, if we can not predict what the market *will* do. Or, as VEEFX put it: "How the F*ck would you know if market WILL range or trend ? You simply cannot !"

2) So, how can we "know that we are in the next wave"? We could start by the definition, or conditions and criteria we want to use: what is a trend, what is a range? Then we can test for these conditions, and use the outcome to determine our strategy.

3) Picking up VEEFX's last question, "how would you determine consolidation, accummulation/decumulation or whatever the buzz words chartist use to describe STALLING OF PRICE", I would propose the following condition: stalling of price = candle close is inside the range of previous candle. If this condition is true, we have our first indication for what VEEFX called stalling of price, and abokwaik called a small range.
  • #127
  • May 14, 2018 9:18am May 14, 2018 9:18am
3) Picking up VEEFX's last question, "how would you determine consolidation, accummulation/decumulation or whatever the buzz words chartist use to describe STALLING OF PRICE", I would propose the following condition: stalling of price = candle close is inside the range of previous candle. If this condition is true, we have our first indication for what VEEFX called stalling of price, and abokwaik called a small range.[/quote]

Therefore could we assume that a BUY continues to close above the previous CLOSE and a SELL continues to close below the previous CLOSE?

When this doesn't happen it's time to get out or flip the trade?
  • #128
  • May 14, 2018 9:30am May 14, 2018 9:30am
>> Therefore could we assume that a BUY continues to close above the previous CLOSE and a SELL continues to close below the previous CLOSE?

No, not in my point of view. IF the above condition is true, THEN we have a first indication for a small range. ELSE... we don't know. This condition for a range being false does NOT mean that we are in a trend. For trend conditions, we would need to look at what defines a "trend". For example, is it "trend up = higher lows AND higher highs"? Then we need to test for that.

At least that would be my point of view. But it depends on how you define the possible states of the market. Is it a binary decision, that is either "trend" or "range"? Or is it "trend", "range", "nothing"?
  • #129
  • May 14, 2018 9:54am May 14, 2018 9:54am
...and that question about the possible states of the market leads to another question: what we want to do with that information in our trading system.

For example, one simple high level game plan could be:

IF market state = trend up THEN strategy = "buy and hold";
IF market state = trend down THEN strategy = "sell and hold";
IF market state = range THEN strategy = "buy low and sell high"; (buy at lower range boundary and sell at upper range boundary)
ELSE strategy = "stay in cash".

On the other hand, if we would assume that the market is either in a trend or in a range, and our system has a trading strategy for each case, our system should be in the market all the time. Possible, but do we want this?
  • #130
  • May 17, 2018 2:18am May 17, 2018 2:18am
Too bad that this discussion seems to be dying down... so this will be my last post for now, just to illustrate the proposed condition for "small range".

Here is chart of EUR/USD, 5min, taken yesterday, May 16, 2018.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 5m Small Ranges.jpg Size: 90 KB


You can see 3 nice examples of what we could describe as "small ranges", labeled A, B, C. You will notice that in these cases price was "stalling" for about 8-10 bars, unable to close outside the range of the first bar at the left of the range (shaded for better visibility). Btw, the grey line is just a 50EMA.

What about all other bars outside these small ranges (when above condition is not met), is the market in a trend there? I'll let you decide.

What about "large ranges", as one could argue that there should be cases where the upper and lower range boundaries are wider apart than the range of one bar? I would like to offer a hypothesis: any "large range" is a "small range" (of the kind shown here) in some higher timeframe.
  • #131
  • May 23, 2018 5:06am May 23, 2018 5:06am
What if we mix 2 EA's

Double Martingale + Recovery Zone = Win in Trend & Range
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  • #132
  • May 23, 2018 5:12am May 23, 2018 5:12am
Quoting KashifNawaz
What if we mix 2 EA's Double Martingale + Recovery Zone = Win in Trend & Range
The main challenge would be margin requirements and lot size management. Care to elaborate on double martingale?
  • #133
  • May 23, 2018 5:27am May 23, 2018 5:27am
Quoting KashifNawaz
What if we mix 2 EA's Double Martingale + Recovery Zone = Win in Trend & Range
How the EA can distinguish when we are in ranging or trending market to use the proper engine?

Regards
  • #134
  • Edited 5:50am May 23, 2018 5:36am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting carddard
{quote} The main challenge would be margin requirements and lot size management. Care to elaborate on double martingale?
Always keep thinking how to survive an EA with deposit of 3000$ in all market conditions. Just an idea crossed my mind yesterday (maybe stupid one ) want to discuss with you guys.

Double martingale means trade both sides whatever the market direction. (same like engine 1 of GoWithFlow). We can replace engine 2 with Recovery Zone (like TicTac). As you know, 80%-90% market is ranging so Double Martingale is suitable for this. Once Engine 1 will be in crisis, engine 2 will come to rescue. And there will be engine 3 as well to rescue engine 2. I will share excel sheet to elaborate this in detail.

Quoting Merka
{quote} How the EA can distinguish when we are in ranging or trending market to use the proper engine? Regards
No need to identify trend. Engine 1 will keep working in ranging. Once your set level hit, (means 8th or 10th cycle), then engine 2 will active. After 4th or 6th cycle of engine 2, engine 3 will active and and then all trades of engine 2&3 will close together.
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  • #135
  • May 23, 2018 5:50am May 23, 2018 5:50am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} Just an idea crossed my mind yesterday (maybe stupid one ) want to discuss with you guys. Double martingale means trade both sides whatever the market direction. (same like engine 1 of GoWithFlow). We can replace engine 2 with Recovery Zone (like TicTac). As you know, 80%-90% market is ranging so Double Martingale is suitable for this. Once Engine 1 will be in crisis, engine 2 will come to rescue. And there will be engine 3 as well to rescue engine 2. I will share excel sheet to elaborate this in detail. {quote} No need to identify...
Do also think about where the recovery zone engine will kick in and when it will exit
  • #136
  • May 23, 2018 5:55am May 23, 2018 5:55am
Quoting carddard
{quote} Do also think about where the recovery zone engine will kick in and when it will exit
I have plan for this..... Almost 80%. remaining 20% you can add I believe.
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  • #137
  • May 24, 2018 10:34am May 24, 2018 10:34am
Quoting carddard
I think one of the most difficult endeavors one could face.. Is starting with a 1k deposit, doubling in within half a year while maintaining a decent enough DD. Truth be told, with a ROI of at least 100% a year, I'm OK with a 30-40% DD.
is 100% in a year a big profit to u?
  • #138
  • May 24, 2018 10:43am May 24, 2018 10:43am
Quoting shapran
{quote} is 100% in a year a big profit to u?
Depend by your starting capital.
Let say initial balance = 1000000$
If after 1 year a doubled that account I will be more than happy.
Yes, it's a big profit
  • #139
  • May 24, 2018 1:42pm May 24, 2018 1:42pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Depend by your starting capital. Let say initial balance = 1000000$ If after 1 year a doubled that account I will be more than happy. Yes, it's a big profit

There are real members who started their account with 1 million $ but still trading manually. strange?

Check this live account.
https://www.forexfactory.com/srmtj#acct.39
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  • #140
  • May 25, 2018 5:34am May 25, 2018 5:34am
Just Random Thoughts............
Attached Image
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