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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #921
  • May 2, 2018 4:03am May 2, 2018 4:03am
Quoting cat
Possible rate hike in the US today, and the markets won't like it if there is one.
In my limited experience, it's hard to tell what the markets like/don't like beforehand.
Let's live and learn
Happy trading
  • #922
  • May 2, 2018 4:20am May 2, 2018 4:20am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} In my limited experience, it's hard to tell what the markets like/don't like beforehand. Let's live and learn Happy trading
It's hard to tell, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be vigilant. After the last rate hike in March, the Dow plummeted 1,500 pips.

However, what I will say is that before the March hike, the Dow was technically set to fall. Now, it is the opposite, or at least I have it set to rise possibly back up to around 25,000, so we'll see. It'll be very interesting to see what the market reaction will be to a second rate hike this year.
  • #923
  • May 2, 2018 4:24am May 2, 2018 4:24am
Quoting cat
{quote} It's hard to tell, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be vigilant. After the last rate hike in March, the Dow plummeted 1,500 pips.
I agree, but unless I position for it ahead of it, which I won't, I would rather look at it with a clear mind and wait for what PASR will indicate for me to consider.
Will you position for it in advance?
  • #924
  • May 2, 2018 4:52am May 2, 2018 4:52am
No, I never do, not before big data releases, but once the data is out, and I see an opportunity, I'll enter. Even though I'm strictly a day trader, I'm also a merket analyst, so out of interest as much as anything else, I'm always looking ahead. The technicals say no rate hike today, which of course doesn't mean there won't be one, but like I said, it'll sure be interesting if there is one. In that case the market should fall, but who knows what the big money traders are thinking. They already know what the rate decision is likely to be , I'm sure of that, so they may just buy it back up in line with the technicals on Dow and the S&P, to seel it down hard when it reached resistance, which for me is at around 25,000, but it is all speculation, and I like speculating.
  • #925
  • May 2, 2018 5:11am May 2, 2018 5:11am
Quoting cat
I like speculating.
Interestingly, speculation comes from Speculat, which translates i something like observing from a high vantage point.
  • #926
  • May 2, 2018 5:14am May 2, 2018 5:14am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Interestingly, speculation comes from Speculat, which translates i something like observing from a high vantage point.
Well, if ten years spent studying and trading the markets doesn't give me a high vantage point, I don't know what does.
  • #927
  • May 2, 2018 5:26am May 2, 2018 5:26am
Quoting cat
{quote} Well, if ten years spent studying and trading the markets doesn't give me a high vantage point, I don't know what does.
Amen to that.
The former latin student in me just wanted to point out that most people use speculation as a synonym for gambling, taking risks etc although it is the complete opposite
  • #928
  • May 2, 2018 5:35am May 2, 2018 5:35am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Amen to that. The former latin student in me just wanted to point out that most people use speculation as a synonym for gambling, taking risks etc although it is the complete opposite
Which is where non-traders/losing traders looking for an excuse fail to understand the nature of trading. Speculation is the art of weighing up various alternatives to assess the most likely outcome, whilst trading is the end to the equation once the variables have been eliminated to produce just one likely outcome - the signal to trade, right or wrong. Nothing random or speculative about it, or at least there shouldn't be.
  • #929
  • May 2, 2018 5:37am May 2, 2018 5:37am
Quoting cat
{quote} Which is where non-traders/losing traders looking for an excuse fail to understand the nature of trading. Speculation is the art of weighing up various alternatives to assess the most likely outcome, whilst trading is the end to the equation once the variables have been eliminated to produce just one likely outcome - the signal to trade, right or wrong. Nothing random or speculative about it, or at least there shouldn't be.
Once you understand the law of large numbers, the rest is just process
  • #930
  • May 2, 2018 5:40am May 2, 2018 5:40am
http://www.treccani.it/vocabolario/specola/

" ... spècola s. f.
[from the lat. specŭla «observatory», der. of specĕre «to look, to observe»]. -
1. ant. High place, suitable for astronomical observations.
2. Astronomical observatory: the s. (or, as a proper name, the S.) Vatican, in Castelgandolfo, near Rome; s. of Arcetri, in Florence.
3. letter. More genericam., Observatory, place of observation: those panoramic contemplations of the past and of the future in which so many were delighted by a s surprise him. neutral (Borgese)..."

P.S.
observe to interpret with a model (or models) ... the apparent reality ...
What significance (or complementary part of it) to attribute?
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #931
  • May 2, 2018 7:31am May 2, 2018 7:31am
If Dax breaks higher than 782, watch out for diversion, as I have a possible MACD diversion set up on my 10m tf.
  • #932
  • May 2, 2018 7:50am May 2, 2018 7:50am
Time for some light relief - the British Tory party ' I've shit myself ' pose. Go on Boris baby, spread them legs!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #933
  • May 2, 2018 7:55am May 2, 2018 7:55am
Quoting cat
Time for some light relief - the British Tory party ' I've shit myself ' pose. Go on Boris baby, spread them legs! {image} {image}
British humor is an acquired taste, but when you have it, nothing comes close to it
  • #934
  • May 2, 2018 8:06am May 2, 2018 8:06am
previous high broken, but for diversion it needs to go higher, I dunno, 825-840 or so.
  • #935
  • May 2, 2018 5:16pm May 2, 2018 5:16pm
GER30_02_MAY_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/06ouM0z3/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #936
  • May 3, 2018 8:48am May 3, 2018 8:48am
Both Dax and Dow teetering on the edge here. Id Dow can break south of its 76.4% at 704 it could fall hard, taking Dax with it. In the balance right now. Both looking bearish, but Dow can rally out of nowhere as we know.
  • #937
  • May 3, 2018 9:14am May 3, 2018 9:14am
That's why I talk about Dow on this Dax thread, because during the NY session, never trust Dax unless you know what Dow is doing. Dow is threatening to break down, but it's in the zone where it can kick up as well. It's not a place you want to be taking trades, because you can get taken out in an instant. It's still in the balance and can go either way.
  • #938
  • May 3, 2018 9:29am May 3, 2018 9:29am
Even a 5m chart is too slow to capture decent entries on the Dow, most people I see trade it do it on tick charts
  • #939
  • May 3, 2018 9:39am May 3, 2018 9:39am
Quoting darko2010
Even a 5m chart is too slow to capture decent entries on the Dow, most people I see trade it do it on tick charts
I've tried all time frames down to 3 seconds, and after much trial and error, I now don't go below 20 seconds for my entries, which, combined with the 1m tf as the next one up, works best for me. You need around a 30 pip SL though on Dow, even on the 20sec tf, unless the pa is really clean. I wouldn't advise anyone to trade the Dow though unless they have spent a decent amount of time studying and demo trading its moves.
  • #940
  • May 3, 2018 10:02am May 3, 2018 10:02am
Big potential support zone now for the Dow, anywhere from here down to 400 or so. Beyond that, and stock markets are in big trouble.
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