Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

Don't I know it!
I love my FX pairs for now, and the Dax is sometimes tradeable, but the Dow burnt me too much too fast last year to go back at it again, especially not in the current context where it has been trapped in a (large) range for weeks

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My View in DAX / GER30 is really quite Bearish.

Yes, don't even attempt to trade the Dow unless you know how it moves, you will get burned.

Can't see new lows today now on either Dax or Dow, support held well. Dow should go higher now if it can get above this 5m 200ema, perhaps to 120-160is, but Dax never has half as much steam in it during the US session, so I'm not sure how much higher it can go.

Wrong. trend day tomorrow or the day after .. earning season not over.

GER30_25_APRIL-2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/79dUHzrv/

Pretty Chart.... but it is not telling me anything particularly. What do You see ahead?

GER30_26_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5SzaVR3h/

Watch for R here on Dax 600-616is...could be a sell.

Higher than that, I've got tops R1 @ 664.

Trust the cat

Not sure how far this will fall today, but I'm looking around 511ish. If you're short, it may be one to hold over the weekend from up here. See what the day brings though.

The 5m 200ema support level has held for now, so we'll see whether this can bring in enough buyers to take it back up, or, whether the bears have assumed enough control at this stage.

For those who don't go as low as 5 mins, that support was on my H1 20sma to the pip.

I think a big down move is building, but whether it can amount to anything today remains to be seen. Generally Friday is not a day for big moves, so the price may just slosh about. Can it still push higher? yes, of course it can, but for me it is looking less likely as the morning wears on. To repeat my first post today, if we do move higher, then my next level of potential resistance is around today's R1 pivot which I have at 664.

Right there at 614 is my lower Resistance level. If it goes above that, then I think we move on up to R1.

It's at this time of day that I look at how the Dow is shaping up, because it is NY which drives the afternoon session. At the moment it is falling a bit, but anyone who knows the Dow also knows how it can kick up pretty much out of nowhere.

Both the Dax and the Dow hang pretty much in the balance right now, as far as today goes. But, a significant down move is building, of that I am sure if my own TA is to be trusted. Today? No, i think not, there is still too much support, but this 615ish level on Dax is a very significant one for me, so it just remains to be seen whether it holds. It could easily be the top of this current up move which began Wednesday. My H1 is showing potentially strong resistance around this level, but my H3 has a continuation up to R1 a possibility.

Last post today, so good luck and happy weekend.

GER30_27_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G20fO56c/

GER30_30-APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5amlk64Y/

Haven't been trading Dax today, but we have fallen As i thought we would, not just on Dax, but on Dow as well.

Dax is coming off the H4 rising 100sma as I type, but I think this will be temporary and Dax will continue to fall to around 12,430 or so, perhaps lower, but I don't want to get too far ahead.

Nice potential head and shoulders/triple top on Dax atm, best seen on H2 or H4. 600 - 650 is the key level.

If it breaks above, I've got some resistance on today's R2 @ 714 if it can get there.

Big move on Dax this, decisively breaking the upper resistance level which has held since the 18th April. So where now?

I'm sure your guess is as good as mine, but it still can come down from this level as it is only just creeping higher now. One level i'm watching is the daily 200sma at 12,776, which is just below today's R3. Above that, and the 61.8% fib plotted from the all time high is at 865, and above that the 76.4%. Onto the weekly tf, and the way is now clear for a run up all the way to 13,500. New highs? No, not for me. In fact, I still think we are building for a big fall probably later this year, perhaps into next year, and Dow chart very much confirms this. I think Dow can climb back up to 25,000, but I don't see it going much higher than that. We'll see.

Possible rate hike in the US today, and the markets won't like it if there is one.

Okay, the price is up against this Daily 200sma now, so we'll see how it reacts.