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Win in Trend and Win in Range

  • #21
  • Apr 11, 2018 8:30am Apr 11, 2018 8:30am
Quoting carddard
{quote} How would you accurately pinpoint a rebound or a break off any zone/SR line?

Can't be sure, ever. This is the market after all and it will do what it wants, not what some lines (drawn by the likes of me and you) tell it to do.
supply/demand areas are looked at by many traders and that is where you will "expect" to have orders stacked. So, just go with the odds that these areas will hold. If they don't hold, you will have your SL orders in place to get triggered with minimal loss if the market goes against you. IF the levels/areas hold and you get the "expected" bounce, then you are in the money. Keep it simple like MZ mentioned in his previous post.
  • #22
  • Apr 11, 2018 8:36am Apr 11, 2018 8:36am
Quoting carddard
{quote} Zigzags? No one's better with hedging here than you MZ > how do you identify the right time to flip? Or price? Would you spare us a tip or two?
Hmmmm, you are flattering me.
I am far far away from being a good trader, unfortunately.

But here is how to collect pips in any market conditions.
For about 70 calendar days.
Maybe you can't see the edge?
Cause the spread will just kill the average net pips?
I know how to handle those pips.

Yes, it is zig zaggin...
Unfortunately, nobody wants to explore this amazing indicator.
It does tell all the story on the chart.
Everything zig zags there.
Just take a close look?
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Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #23
  • Apr 11, 2018 8:53am Apr 11, 2018 8:53am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Hmmmm, you are flattering me. I am far far away from being a good trader, unfortunately. But here is how to collect pips in any market conditions. For about 70 calendar days. Maybe you can't see the edge? Cause the spread will just kill the average net pips? I know how to handle those pips. Yes, it is zig zaggin... Unfortunately, nobody wants to explore this amazing indicator. It does tell all the story on the chart. Everything zig zags there. Just take a close look? {image}
Very nice.

I have seen many of your threads - you have always been a strong proponent of Zigzag.

I haven't spent time taking a close look at it - maybe I should.

I don't know how you do your flips - but there are many ways to skin a cat.

A 70% win rate is not good enough for me - that's 60% over 90 days, not enough to live off.

Much to learn.. Much to experiment..
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  • #24
  • Apr 11, 2018 9:25am Apr 11, 2018 9:25am
Quoting carddard
{quote} Very nice. I have seen many of your threads - you have always been a strong proponent of Zigzag. I haven't spent time taking a close look at it - maybe I should. I don't know how you do your flips - but there are many ways to skin a cat. A 70% win rate is not good enough for me - that's 60% over 90 days, not enough to live off. Much to learn.. Much to experiment.. {image}
That is a hell of a performance!

I first find a net pips edge?
Then humbly ask for just 50-60 pips net on a trade?
500 trades means 25,000-30,000 net pips.
Can live with 17% winners only.
If I was able to get 70% of winners? LOL!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #25
  • Apr 11, 2018 7:59pm Apr 11, 2018 7:59pm
All depends how much your winners are compared to your losers, percentage can be deceiving. If your TP is 5x your SL, then you can be living nicely off 20% win percentage if your pips are worth 10 bucks each and you get 500 pips a month
  • #26
  • Apr 12, 2018 10:12am Apr 12, 2018 10:12am
Quoting JacolineFIS
All depends how much your winners are compared to your losers, percentage can be deceiving. If your TP is 5x your SL, then you can be living nicely off 20% win percentage if your pips are worth 10 bucks each and you get 500 pips a month
Absolutely..

Any thoughts on risk management JacolineFIS?

I get the feeling that you are proponent of tight stop losses. We would love to get some off your thoughts on managing risk and position sizing.
  • #27
  • Apr 12, 2018 10:46am Apr 12, 2018 10:46am
I have been receiving some PMs on how I manage my entries and exits.

I can't say that I have the best of either. Over the past 2.5 years I have literally created and thrashed hundreds of algorithms.

I have made, and lost money. I have been inconsistent, I have made mistakes. But through these mistakes, I learned.

The most immediate advice I could give to anyone who would listen is - if you could think of a worst case scenario for your strategy and you don't have a solution for that, either find one, or thrash that idea of yours. It isn't going to work. Fix your risk management and you win half the battle.

Another lesson I learnt is that there are a gazillion ways to make money in this market.

Just because a strategy works for you does not mean that it is the only way to make money. If you feel that your way is the only way, that is a very naive point of view and I would encourage you to be more open-minded towards other methodologies.

I have crossed paths with enough prop-traders and investment bankers in my profession to know that there is enough money to be made for everyone through different ways.

Everyone wants a low drawdown, high profit EA but not many are willing to roll up their sleeves and find out what works and what doesn't. Quite often, not many are equipped with the right programming skills to write their own algorithms, but in my opinion, that is no excuse. There are many ways to the top, you just have to work for it.

The way I do it is:

1) Form a hypothesis
2) Proof my hypothesis
3) If it works, I improve it
4) If it fails, I fail fast

I hope this helps!
  • #28
  • Apr 12, 2018 10:58am Apr 12, 2018 10:58am
I do like to keep tight SL. 1 to 2% usually per position. But sometimes I go stupid and do higher than that (DONT do that )

I like to start small and build up profits, once in profit and playing with "house money" it gets easier for me to pull the trigger on trades

Try not to have too many positions open. I stay at 2 to 3 max per pair. I focus on one or two pairs all the time and study them well. See where the reaction to price areas are and hone in on those. I mainly focus on EU and GU - most liquid

Find confluence of trendlines to make a stronger case for your reason of getting into a position at that price point.

Stick to your plan and let your trade breath a little. Don't choke the trade and get out too early
  • #29
  • Apr 12, 2018 11:06am Apr 12, 2018 11:06am
Quoting JacolineFIS
I do like to keep tight SL. 1 to 2% usually per position. But sometimes I go stupid and do higher than that (DONT do that ) I like to start small and build up profits, once in profit and playing with "house money" it gets easier for me to pull the trigger on trades Try not to have too many positions open. I stay at 2 to 3 max per pair. I focus on one or two pairs all the time and study them well. See where the reaction to price areas are and hone in on those. I mainly focus on EU and GU - most liquid Find confluence of trendlines to make...
I assume you're a manual trader? Your TE is an inspiration my friend.
  • #30
  • Apr 12, 2018 7:29pm Apr 12, 2018 7:29pm
Yes, sir. I trade manually. I use my "feel" for the market and price, something that no EA in the world can do. But that is not to say EAs are no good. They are just not for me. I am a control freak I guess and like to control my trades.

Thanks for the kind words regarding my TE. I just don't know how you can see it cuz I would like to put it in my signature, just dont know how lol
  • #31
  • Apr 12, 2018 7:37pm Apr 12, 2018 7:37pm
i think I found it in the "settings" ... hope people can see it in the signature now
  • #32
  • Apr 13, 2018 3:57am Apr 13, 2018 3:57am
Entries vs Exits
50:50
  • #33
  • Apr 13, 2018 9:55am Apr 13, 2018 9:55am
A strong entry mechanism coupled with a robust exit strategy is like a football team that is strong in attack and defence. They both have to come together for a well rounded trading plan.
  • #34
  • Apr 13, 2018 10:38am Apr 13, 2018 10:38am
Exits are as important as entries.

For every entry, I always strive to find the best possible exit option:
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  • #35
  • Apr 13, 2018 8:07pm Apr 13, 2018 8:07pm
Carddard

You have started a wonderful thread here. I have always wondered about the the same for a very long time. I have developed tens of strategies myself if not hundreds around this subject. But we all know by now that Forex trading is just not so easy.

I will write more when I get more time but just could not resist writing few lines and express my thoughts.

Like I said I have always worked on this for a very long time and for now my thoughts are all centered around the following points:

1) There is no indicator or no way to tell when a trend ends or begins.
2) There is no indicator or no way to tell when a ranging market starts or ends.
3) The above 2 clearly stated...it means any strategy that does very well in Trending market will blow your account in ranging market and vice versa with a decent lotsize.

So all the above 3 points said....my conclusion is the following:


We need to think in the right direction first keeping the above 3 in mind....we need to develop 2 strategies.......1) Something that does amazing in Trending markets but does not lose very bad in ranging markets. 2) Something that does amazing in Ranging markets but does not lose very bad in trending markets.

Now we run both these strategies together...it does not matters in same account or separate account...all that are just details that can be worked out...but at any point in time if you merge the Equity of both these account...most of the time it will be net positive if we did a good job with the 2 strategies. This is our edge! This is what will make us the basic $$$. This may not be HUGE crazy profits....but I strong believe this can be easily around 50% annual ROI which is more then enough if we feel confidence....we can always invest more and generate great returns in a long run.

We can start brainstorming about what will be the best way to do the 2 strategies I descried above...I have many many ideas to do this. Just need collective brainpower to take this further
  • #36
  • Apr 14, 2018 2:50am Apr 14, 2018 2:50am
Quoting yalgaar
Carddard You have started a wonderful thread here. I have always wondered about the the same for a very long time. I have developed tens of strategies myself if not hundreds around this subject. But we all know by now that Forex trading is just not so easy. I will write more when I get more time but just could not resist writing few lines and express my thoughts. Like I said I have always worked on this for a very long time and for now my thoughts are all centered around the following points: 1) There is no indicator or no way to tell when a trend...
What do you have in mind?
  • #37
  • Apr 14, 2018 3:14am Apr 14, 2018 3:14am
subs. thanks and
regards
  • #38
  • Apr 14, 2018 11:03pm Apr 14, 2018 11:03pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
It is possible by the way. To survive the range without any serious damages. And even make a buck or two in the range, but not always. Surely not always... You need to think of way of catching the range's tops and bottoms with stop orders (trend). Think simple. Get down to my IQ level of 75. Simple thinking. This is what you need.
Lol....still working to achieve that magic "75" I may be mostly quiet but you can be sure I'm always looking for the crumbs you drop.
  • #39
  • Apr 15, 2018 8:34am Apr 15, 2018 8:34am
Winning in trend and winning in range..

It seems like for the most part, it's more common to have algorithms that do either of the following:

 

  1. Wins in range, fails in trend
  2. Wins in trend, fails in range
  3. Wins in range, survives in trend, with large drawdown
  4. Wins in trend, survives in range, with large drawdown

Let's talk about hedging..

Do you hedge when you have to?

Or do you hedge when the timing is right?

  • #40
  • Apr 15, 2018 9:52am Apr 15, 2018 9:52am
Striking a balance between profitability and risk - how much are you willing to risk for high profitability?
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