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Win in Trend and Win in Range

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 9, 2018 4:29am Apr 9, 2018 4:29am
"This strategy works best in range - avoid trends."

"This method thrives in trends but fails in range."

How many times have we heard this?

I don't want a strategy that works in a range but fails miserably when a trend comes.

In the same grain I don't want a strategy that works in a trend but ping pongs around in a range.

Why can't we have the best of both worlds? Of course we want the best of both worlds!

Surely someone has come up with a viable enough strategy to do this - either manually or through an automated EA.

But of course, a strategy that works in both ranging markets and trending markets may well be a strategy that thrives in one but merely survives in the other.

For the purpose of discussion, let's be open-minded and take all definitions.

I challenge everyone here to think deeper about how the best ranging strategies and trending strategies could come together in unison.
  • #2
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:03am Apr 9, 2018 6:03am
https://www.investopedia.com/article.../05/050505.asp

The goal is to win in range, and win in trend.

What I am alluding to is really to conceptualize a genetic algorithm that learns on it's own what to do in each scenario.
  • #3
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:06am Apr 9, 2018 9:06am
Carddard,

congratulation for taking a step ahead creating this thread.Not sure though where you are aimed to with this.This is not grid specific as other threads you are participating.Are you looking for a kind of "universal" strategy ? Carry trade, trend and counter trend,triangulation arbitrage,scalping channel, etc... could you extend your thoughts ?
  • #4
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:19am Apr 9, 2018 9:19am
Quoting stefdek
Carddard, congratulation for taking a step ahead creating this thread.Not sure though where you are aimed to with this.This is not grid specific as other threads you are participating.Are you looking for a kind of "universal" strategy ? Carry trade, trend and counter trend,triangulation arbitrage,scalping channel, etc... could you extend your thoughts ?
I don't intend to ringfence this within the confines of any specific strategy. I believe there is an ideal way of merging the most profitable ranging strategies with a trend method. It doesn't matter what method you prefer. Grid, channels, moving averages, celestial bodies, shape of your poop - there are a million or more ways to make money in this crazy world of currencies.

There is a method to this madness. And we are about to create it. I want to use this thread to yield the collective power of this community. It's a long shot, but I believe there are good people here who are willing to share their knowledge. If it doesn't work out, no harm done. We'll just get back to our own lives and winners will continue to win while losers continue to lose.
  • #5
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:22am Apr 9, 2018 9:22am
Quoting carddard
For the purpose of discussion, let's be open-minded and take all definitions. I challenge everyone here to think deeper about how the best ranging strategies and trending strategies could come together in unison.
Hi You are quite right in your way about trading in ranging and trending markets i.e some strategies work very well in ranging markets and some work exellent as long as the markets are trending and this is quite obvious because markets are following a yin and yang principle.

To develop any strategy which works in both markets requires much wisdom and deeper understanding on how the markets work.which breaks down to understanding the accumulation and distribution phases which can also be called as a cause and effect principle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No one ever Discovered anything new by colouring inside the lines.
  • #6
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:42am Apr 9, 2018 9:42am
Quoting carddard
{quote} I don't intend to ringfence this within the confines of any specific strategy. I believe there is an ideal way of merging the most profitable ranging strategies with a trend method. It doesn't matter what method you prefer. Grid, channels, moving averages, celestial bodies, shape of your poop - there are a million or more ways to make money in this crazy world of currencies. There is a method to this madness. And we are about to create it. I want to use this thread to yield the collective power of this community. It's a long shot, but I...
Ok, got it , load and clear.When u have time , share the shapepoop indi , so I can see what kind of "lines" it draws on chart and set my own colours.lol.
  • #7
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:49am Apr 9, 2018 9:49am
Quoting Hdhorda4
{quote} Hi You are quite right in your way about trading in ranging and trending markets i.e some strategies work very well in ranging markets and some work exellent as long as the markets are trending and this is quite obvious because markets are following a yin and yang principle. To develop any strategy which works in both markets requires much wisdom and deeper understanding on how the markets work.which breaks down to understanding the accumulation and distribution phases which can also be called as a cause and effect principle. {image}
Thanks for sharing this insight.
Would you share a bit more on how you are using this?
  • #8
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:53am Apr 9, 2018 9:53am
Quoting stefdek
{quote} Ok, got it , load and clear.When u have time , share the shapepoop indi , so I can see what kind of "lines" it draws on chart and set my own colours.lol.
Sure - I can even predict with certainty the shape and consistency of the trendlines of shapepoop for the next day solely based on my diet today. I kid you not.

On a serious note - I started this TE a couple days ago with zero capital protection. By "capital protection", I mean the strategy is solely based on either a range or a trend method - not both at the same time. Trust me. I am certain of this - it will fail eventually.

But hey - what if I told you there are ways to mitigate this risk to close to 0? Would you believe that?

What if we don't have to predict the next wave - what we just need to know we are in the next wave? Would that be sufficient knowledge for us to manage our trades?
  • #9
  • Apr 10, 2018 3:56am Apr 10, 2018 3:56am
Food for thought: If we could come up with so many filters before we enter a trade, what's stopping us from having multiple exit filters?
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  • #10
  • Apr 10, 2018 4:11am Apr 10, 2018 4:11am
Quoting carddard
I challenge everyone here to think deeper about how the best ranging strategies and trending strategies could come together in unison.
consider the idea of an agent:
an agent is an entity (i.e. object) that encapsulates a strategy and the management of the
same (this fits well with OOP)
on the other hand the system (or supervisor):
the system will engage agents with different strategies at the same time and
replicate in greater amount those that are (currently) successful,
while at the same time minimize in amount those that are unsuccessful in any given
environement (aka selection)
prereq.:
you need have several strategies at hand, i.e trend-following, ranging
Return To Disorder
  • #11
  • Apr 10, 2018 4:16am Apr 10, 2018 4:16am
Quoting rockit
{quote} consider the idea of an agent: an agent is an entity (i.e. object) that encapsulates a strategy and the management of the same (this fits well with OOP) on the other hand the system (or supervisor): the system will engage agents with different strategies at the same time and replicate in greater amount those that are (currently) successful, while at the same time minimize in amount those that are unsuccessful in any given environement (aka selection) prereq.: you need have several strategies at hand, i.e trend-following, ranging
Excellent. Now we are talking.
Keep these ideas coming, rockit.

Assuming that you have successful range and trend strategies, would you like to illustrate with some diagrams maybe, how you would bring this to bear?
  • #12
  • Edited 4:44am Apr 10, 2018 4:27am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting carddard
{quote} Excellent. Now we are talking. Keep these ideas coming, rockit. Assuming that you have successful range and trend strategies, would you like to illustrate with some diagrams maybe, how you would bring this to bear?
Have not pursued that direction yet; have to think about it more, as it may be more complex than it would seem at first. So, if I will make progress on it I will come back.
Return To Disorder
  • #13
  • Apr 10, 2018 7:37pm Apr 10, 2018 7:37pm
It is only after the fact really that you can tell whether u are in a trend or range market. IF you were in a trend and u though trend would continue, you may take a trade and then the market can sit in a range as soon as you take the trade. The same goes for the opposite, you may trade as if u r in a range,m and as soon as u take the trade, then market price breaks out and starts a new trend .. just my 2 cents
  • #14
  • Apr 10, 2018 9:04pm Apr 10, 2018 9:04pm
Quoting JacolineFIS
It is only after the fact really that you can tell whether u are in a trend or range market. IF you were in a trend and u though trend would continue, you may take a trade and then the market can sit in a range as soon as you take the trade. The same goes for the opposite, you may trade as if u r in a range,m and as soon as u take the trade, then market price breaks out and starts a new trend .. just my 2 cents
Precisely. You have described the key pain point that almost all traders face. The question now is, how do you win in both?
  • #15
  • Apr 10, 2018 9:08pm Apr 10, 2018 9:08pm
Quoting carddard
{quote} Precisely. You have described the key pain point that almost all traders face. The question now is, how do you win in both?
Trade supply/demand or support/resistance. They work in both markets most of the time, Those areas hold in either market (most of the time, not all of the time of course)
  • #16
  • Apr 10, 2018 10:45pm Apr 10, 2018 10:45pm
Quoting JacolineFIS
{quote} Trade supply/demand or support/resistance. They work in both markets most of the time, Those areas hold in either market (most of the time, not all of the time of course)
How would you accurately pinpoint a rebound or a break off any zone/SR line?
  • #17
  • Apr 10, 2018 10:53pm Apr 10, 2018 10:53pm
I see you are doing quite well for yourself my friend. Good job, keep it up!
  • #18
  • Edited 3:28am Apr 11, 2018 3:10am | Edited 3:28am
you certainly can do trend and range trading safely.
just determine the longer-term trend on the daily.
oh ok, the trend is up on the daily TF.
now we only buy near the bottom of the range, not sell at the top of the range.
we could have a stop in place when price nears the top of the range.
if a break-out occurs, we`re still in for a fat pay-out.
if not, we`ll still get a decent profit when price hits the stop.

ofcourse you can sell the top of the range too, but that is a different strategy.
  • #19
  • Apr 11, 2018 7:52am Apr 11, 2018 7:52am
It is possible by the way. To survive the range without any serious damages.
And even make a buck or two in the range, but not always. Surely not always...
You need to think of way of catching the range's tops and bottoms with stop orders (trend).
Think simple. Get down to my IQ level of 75.
Simple thinking. This is what you need.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #20
  • Apr 11, 2018 7:57am Apr 11, 2018 7:57am
Quoting MoneyZilla
It is possible by the way. To survive the range without any serious damages. And even make a buck or two in the range, but not always. Surely not always... You need to think of way of catching the range's tops and bottoms with stop orders (trend). Think simple. Get down to my IQ level of 75. Simple thinking. This is what you need.
Zigzags?

No one's better with hedging here than you MZ > how do you identify the right time to flip? Or price? Would you spare us a tip or two?
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